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BOOKS AND ART.
NEW-YORK, SUNDAY. JAMJAltY 1, 1911.
fifhat Are your Chance*
To LixJe Through 1he tyear?
j\ *Bil 'Bettcr (/you Dtvetl
OuUtde ofJVebtt VorK.
Than Within Iu
What are your chancis of llvlng
through tha year Mttlt Tho study of
vltal statisties ln tho Unlted Statos has
jono so fur that it ain bo foremld with
Closc I'r.'xlmmiv.n bot* many persons in
each h.ii'lr'tl will dta in tho course of a
rten of each one hundred deaths bolng '
persons of that age. In the next dceade.
whlch termlnates ln the Pralmist's
threrscore and t.-n. the mortallty will in?
crease to 171.(111 persons, or l.r.1 persons
out <?f every thousand. Out of every one i
hundred deaths VJ.2 will be of persons
between slxty and sevinty yeira of age.
The romainlng three deaths in every
thousand, or twenty in every hundred
deaths, will bo of persons beyond thls
For some reason people dle younper in
NYw York City than in the Unlted
BtatC* taken as a whole, and they appear
to give way more readlly tc tho grim
Uncle Sam's Fortune Told
For 1911, "and Then Some'
Father KnicKerbocker .Rec
ommends the CtairnJoy
ant, *But Lcscj
Uncle Sam and Father Knickerbocker,
arm in arm, stood ir. the swaying, surg
ing roaring BBOb which fllled low?r
Broadway last night, trylng to near the
clilmes of Trinity Church ring out the
old year and wclcome the new, but so
loud was the babel of horns and rattles
HraMb catchlng all citlzen_ wlthin tbelr
n a' h and thrustlng them Into the barred
compartmenta. When the proteitln*
prisoners ask the rea?on for thle treat
ment they aro told that a new order haa
gone forth to segregate the ItaHatui, th?
Dutch and the Irlsh."
"Thls fomale is certalnly drunk," e*
claimcd Unclo Sam. "She's been r*ad
ing about Haltlmorc"
"Havo patlence," sald Father Knlck
trbocker. "She's really a wonderful per
"I see a wagon piled high wlth pareela
driving along a country road," droned
the clalrvoyant. "The driver irtopt ln
WHAT AWAITS THEM?
yenr or a given month ln any community
Of any size in more than half of the
I Btatea and of what disoas'-s they
I t?1 llkely to die. This dcgrce of
accuracy has baaa made paaalbla by the
j.ainstaking work of the I'nited Btatea
Canaua Uurcau. it, therefore, may ba
prognostioated arltb a .?..nsid.ral.lf d<
I of certainty that _,40T,O8B persona
arlll paaa away bn the eourae of the year
3011 wlthin the bordera of the I'nited
Btatea, an<i that 76,270 of theae wlll be
Inhabitants of the city of Nea York.
In other worda, throughout the Unlted
Btatea Bftfen peraona out of evary thou
aand will not aee Near Year's Day, 1912,
whlle there will be atxteen peraoni in
every thuusatai of ihe dwellara of New
York Clty who will not have that prtv
llege, if they OOnnt it BUCh.
A great many of thoea who will fail to
aaa the next New Year are not yat born,
for out of every one hundred deatha
nineteen will be of bablea leaa than a
year old. More than twcity-six?_?>.S,
to be exact?out of every hundred per
Bons who die will be leaa than flve yeara
old. That is to say that four <.ut of
arary thouaand peraona now liviaa nr
who arin be born thla year, below the
age of Bv? yeara, wlll die aome time ln
1W1 Tii<> food parent, however, may
tako hope for all children in the *
year, for they are llkely t.> have ?
c>i Ufe that will carry them throufb t<.
mlddle BJ*. TI Of llf< la then
aatabllahed. ln the acb ol pertod,
? n Tiv< and twenty yeara, only one
peraoa in a thouaand wlll die. Life be
comes only a llttle leaa tenai l< ua beyond
tl pertod, called the prlnv of Ufe.
out of the 1,407,065 i" raona who are to
die this year only 100,750, ot a llttle more
than one for each thouaand peraona wlll
pass away between the ;mos ol twenty
end thlrty yeara. Only a few more
deaths will be of peraona between thirty
und fofty, and the pen <ntage will be
only slightly preater between forty and
Bfty yeara. IVar tboae who have |
the semi-contury the probabllltit
tleath inerease, for 142,113s or 1.6 l?i
Bor.s in every thouaand, arlll die between
Bfty and sixty years of age, more than
manlpulator of tho gcytbi than tho av?
erage in tba very prlmi of Hfa. Is W ba
eauaa ara traval at tho pace which blllB?
or is it becauaa tha aaattary coadUlona
are not what thoy BBOUM bal Of doaa
the intlux of thousands upon thousands
of Immlgraalfl ta tho prima of Itfe la
eraaaa tbi proportion of daatba for tbi
wrking dacadaa of existence? Aad ls it
bacauaa men and woraen die at an aarllar
age in Now York. on tho average, or ba?
cauaa they prol'cr to g-> baat to the coun?
try ;.t the elose of lifo, that so few of
those who die here are beyond the age
of seventy? Howavar that may ba, ap
parontly the chames of lifo are not so
I.i ln Now York except for tho peiiod
betwean flve and thirty years. Betwi an
thirty-one or two and scventy years, ac
cordlna to the vitai BtatlaUca of tba Caa
aufl Bureau, tho death rate is blfber
than tba average for the United Btata*
Blxteen out of each tbonaaad paraoaa
living OH or borfl after January 1, 1011,
arlll bi in their graves before January 1,
of tho 7t'>,'J7<> paraoaa who will prob
ably dlfl in NiW York City this year, 16,
823 will he bahes leaa than a year old.
Many of them have not yot been bOTll
(?f the wbolfl number, 25,169, or noarly
onc-tblrd, will be of ehUdren not yot of
gcboOl B#;?. OT under flve years. In other
arorda, more than llve of tho sixteen in
aacb tbOUaand v\ho are to die this year
will ba taken from th<> stuok upon wblch
the*nation and the <ity are deponding
fur th. ir supply of fathers and mothers.
At this point lifo in New York is more
tt naeious. It is about the averape for
tiie country. At Un years of age the
dotted lin- of New York's death rate
euts under that of tho average for the
country, and so continues until lt inter
gactg aa-bi at appro-lmately thiity-two
vear.. Tho number who will die be?
tween ten and thirty years will be only
8,389, or 1.76 jtorsons in every thousand.
Ou1 Of one hundred deatbg tbflTfl will be
only eleven of persons bitwaan tbaae
agos. Those between the years of thirty
and sevonty may expad that about eight
hundred of their number for each year
will meet the inexorahle naper, This is
more than tlie average for tho whole
The figure on the white horse appears
in many disguises, but it has been found
by the experta ln tho Census Bureau
from their study of the vital statistics of
more than half the country that he ap?
pears to more tlian threo-fourths of
those whom he calls in only twenty
forms. These are tuberculosis, heart dis
ease, intestinal troubhs (chietly to chil?
dren), pneumonla, nephrttla and Brlght'a
disease, accident, cancer, apoph xy,
broncho-pneuroonla, premature iiirth,
conerenital debfltty, old age, bronchitis,
typhold fever, diphtheria and CTOUP, dis
eases of the arterles, suield*-, diseases of
betng ai.out equally dlvided between the
first montioned and the other two.
A< t ident will account for six and a
fractton of each hundred deaths, whlle
cancer will take five and a fractlon
more. Apoplexy is almost as fruitful a j
I form of mash as cancer. Broncho*
\ pneumonia will claim _.l? persons from
? the 11st and premature blrth will be put
' down as the cause of tho removal of 2& I
Congenital debility is almost on a par |
wlth premature birth, the rate being
; 2.1, whlle Old Bga at the other end of
i tho ra.. couree arlll elalm a ahare iti each
1 hundred victims to the number of IX
BroncMtll elosoly follows old age and
typhoid fever is almost as mnlicnant.
country, and a gr?vit many more than
the average for pneumonia.
Curiously, the number of deaths by
accident will be considerably less than
the average. There will also be fewer
daatbg from cancer. Doubtlesa, because I
of the care of the water supply, typhoid
fever will clalm less than the average
of the country, while diphtheria and
croup will take a large proportion. The
attitudo toward guktdl will be samo as
that of tho rest of the country, so far as
11 manifests itself in acts. Childblrth ls
no more dangerous in Now York than
elsewli'ro. Many will hardly credit the
fact that far fewcr will die of apoplexy
than ln the country in general, whilo
AIR CAR TO BE PUT ON THE MAKKET IX 1011.
Writing about aviation in 1911, Claudo
Grahame-White, the intrepid aviator,
said the other day, in London: "Next
summer peoplc generally will be able to
enioy the sensation of air travel. Ready
for trial in the spring will be the first
tho stomnch, menlngltls and child blrth.
Tubercnlosi.s ll tlie most s.vere ot all,
for our of one hundred deaths In the
Unlted Btntee more than eleven arm bo
due to thls dlsease. ll< art diseaso ls not
ho fnr behin'l, for ntne OUl of ea< h one
hundred who arr to die this year wlll
luccumb t" an attach of that allment
UM third in the llst of di ath's (avorlte
cloaha is the froap <>f Inteatlna] troublea
which Jillll.t young chlldren. Ottt ?f
every hundred, neven and a fraction wlll
rlio from these dlsenst s, nearly all betng
chlldren imder ten yeara of age. Pneu
rimtila and nephrltlH and Ilrlght's dls.ase
oaaaa next on the Itaat, and bad f<>r tha
human race are they, for togfther they
vviu be raaponalble foi tblrteea out of
isvfcjv _iumli?-d deaths, that number
typo of a machine which one miqht call
! an air car. It wiil ba a strongly built
monoplane. A 100-horsepJwer engine
will propel it. It will have a body bke
a motor car, with four comfortably pad
dcd aeatB, well protected from the wind.
Idphthorla and eroup and dbfltaaBg of tbi
arterlea are close upon the heel.s of tba
pcrnlclous fever. and auieide is rcspon
Bii.ie for the daatb of LS paflaoaa ln
every hiindiiil who will have life this
year. Stonia'h diseases, moningltls and
child birth will eaeh < lalm 11 Of the
Here again New York ls dlftYnnt from
tba raal af tba eountty, Ibi aaatb baa
batng a aartag of npa and doarn aa eom
jiaied wlth the line fur the whole coun?
try. Tho number of deaths from tuber
culosls will be Kreater by moro thnn two
ln every hundred. while th'-re will be
aonatdarably fawar deaths from baaii
diseiise, a few ineie frOCB Intffltlnal all
tn.nt.s of chlldren and aliuost aa many
fium pneunioiiia as there are mi th.. av
tru_u for tubciculosia tliroutjhout the
Any wealthy motorist may buy such a
car and hire an aerial chauffeur to fly it
for him if he wanta to be a passenger
broncho-pneumonla will be a dlsease to
be nmre greatly feared than elsowln re.
Comparatlvely few arlll die of old aRe.
whlle diphtheria and croup will llk< ly
eairy off BlOia than tho average for
other parta of tho land.
AttbOUfb it ls hecomlng easler. from
the atatlatlcal polnt of view, to prog<
noatlcate t ti*> auaabev of deatha la a
flvea nalghborhood la a ajtvan pertod,
y,t lt ls llkely tO beOO-BB more dUBcult
ln the future, for, with the advame ?.f
the knowkdgo of medlcine, satdtiitlon
and eurgery, the avaragB length of llfe Is
Increanlng. It has baaa oaleulated thut
ln Indla tho average duration Is only
twenty-three years for males and
tw,tity-four yeara for faaialae, Thls is
k__ than one-half tho llfe. space of tho
advunced c-untrlca of Euro^o.
that they could catch only an occasional
note of the sweet bells.
"These mod( rn Now Yorkers are a
horde of barbarians at hoart," exclaimed
I'ncle Sam. "Quite dlffaiantly araa tba
N.w Year ushered in when you and I
were young. Mr. Knlckerbocker. Let's
get out of this before we are deafoned.
Can't you provide sorne quioter enter
tainment for an old friend?"
"What do you .?ay to having our fort
unos told for lttir askrd Father
Knlckerbocker, and drawing his tuast
out of the hurly-burly, they walked
down a side street. nearly to the North
River, and aotarlBf B dark doorway, as
cended an ordinary tenenient houso
stairway to tho third Boor, vxhore a
Syrian fortUBi teller of sunio nputation
had bar home and ofllcc in tWO rooms,
and a trunk.
"She's a skilful one and trustworthy,"
said Father KnlCbilbOCbar, as he < 1
tba palm of the fat old woman with a
si'.ver dollar. "NOW, t, II tho gontl.ugn
wint's gotng to bappan to him in 1911,"
he commanded, aa ho ptisbed Uncla Sam
forward and holpcd him to a ehair.
Tho clalrvovant w? nt promi tly into a
tranco and presently drOBBd out:
"I sce an American city. It looks like
a Western city, but tba police are cblefly
occupiod in holping femabs wlth bun
dles and babies to board the stroetcars
safely. Every passenger receivea two
nlcbela from the eondactor. Ona ho is
directed to drop in the box, tho other he
is told to ke.p as his share of the dlvi
dend "f the road, which ls owned by tho
"Kot!" excatimed Uncla Bam. N8ba*a
a fakor. Bbi'fl 1" n r.ading about 101
waukee's socialistic Mayor and Counoil,
and thinks she can fool us."
"Better liston," replied Father Knick
orbockcr. "I feel sure she's honest."
"I Baa another citv," droned the clair
voyant. "It looks like a Houthern city.
All the colored folk have l.n safely
segrogated into ono Q_uarter of tho town,
ond now large moving vans, partitioned
like the carts dog catehors uso, ara mov?
lng slowly about tba 'white' gltfl at*
Blui eoatad ofneHalg accompaay the
front of a farm house door. The farm
er's arife hands him eggs ln a emall
crate, butter la a paper erock, apples ln
a box and potatoes in a bag, all dl
rected to a family on the tenth floor of
a Naw York apartment house. She put?
a two-cent postage stainp on each par
cel, goaa in the house, shuts the door
after her, and glves no moro thought to
the matter, knoarlag full well the parcela
will reach thelr destination safe and
? l'm hefiinnlng to think better of thla
pfison," said Uncle Sam.
? l Baa a Jury box full of women." con
tinucd the clairvoyant. "Tho Judge ls a
woman also. The court offlcials are all
women. The plaintlff ls a woman. Tho
defendant is a man. The verdict ls"-?
?'For the plaintiff, of course," inter
rupted Uncle Sam. "Tell us something
w,. don't know."
"I _eo anothor court room. It _ooms
to he the hlgheat court in the land. A
new Chlef Justice take_ hla seat on the
ht n- h. He COmea of the proudest South?
ern BtOCk, the stock that fought to the
death to keep the negro enslaved. A
black man ariscs and addresscs that
COUIt. He approaches the bench. He ls
an Assistant United States Dlstrlct At?
torney. The Southern Chief Justice geta
to bla faat and?I ean see no more."
"Wry inti resiing, Indeed," aald Uncle
Sam. "I would llko to have heard what
Mr. Justice AVhito said to Mr. W. H.
Lewis, of Boston and Harvard; but go
?I sto New York Clty," contlnued the
medium. "iiut lt looks very different
Crom any view I ever had of lt before.
Bhade trces line tho Btreeta. No one
spits on tho sid. walks. The pollce are
pollte. The streets are really cleaa. The
automobtlea obay tho speed laws, the"??
"Fine, line:" exclaimed Father Knlck
Brbpckar. "I told you. Sam, Bhe waa a
trusty BOOthsayar. Look stlll further
into tho future, my good woman, and
tell us what you see ln my Bubwaya,
when tho system ls perfected.
"I look; I see," droned tho roedlum,
i ?" :. p> .1 un scrood p-io.