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THE TRIBUNE'S FOREIGN NEWS
EXPECTS TAFT 10
Isaac N. Seligman Thinks His
Chances Steadily Improving.
LOOKS FOR BIG BUSINESS
Has No Fear of Harm to Amer?
ican Interests from the Balkan
War, but the Contrary.
jBv cahle to The Trlbune. 1
London. Oct. 12.-~Isaac N. Sellgmnn
has been at the Suvoy Hotel this week
(l) im ***? on tr,p Mauretania Mrs. James
Wehh, who i? returnlng to America on
aecount of the death of Professor Loeb.
Mr- Rellgman came over early ln June
\md haf bien for most of the summer
jn Munlch, where he will return to
rennii! txrtil late in November or De
cembc-. "Thls will be the flrst Presi
dentia) electlon I haven't been home to
vote." Mr, Seligman sald yesterday,
??but my son ls there to vote the rlght
Wa>?I mean for Taft. t.f course. I
think Taft ls gettlng stronger every
day, and whlle I am not optlmlstlc he
-eem? to have a better chance all the
time of hls electlon.
?A short time ago lt looked as though
Wilson was the only one who had nny
chance, but I think he ls now losing
ground ?U the tlme. whlle Taft la
"Roosevelt never had any chance,
and :he revelatlons of the source of hls
campaign funds will hurt hlm greatly.
Of course, every one ln Wall Street
knew nil the time where the money
came from, but his 'holier than thou'
(ry deceivcd many throughout the
country. It ls a good thlng for them
to know the truth. lt ls tlme the peo?
ple were undecelved about these
Mr. Seligman is very optimistlc about
business condltlons ln America.
?Everythlng points to a big business
year." he sald. "Crops are enormnus
and earnings of railroads already polnt
to what may be expected ln the next
few montlis. It is hard to see how
anything short of a world calamlty can
hold bfcck America. I don't thlnk any
election can do it. The country is
going ahead, anyway, no matter whi. ls
Doesn't Fear Balkan War.
Mr Seligman dld not thlnk the Bal?
kan w_r would have a bad effect on
Amerkar. affairs. On the contrary, he
thought it might be a help.
"1 don't have much fear of the ef?
fect- ol the Balkan trouble, either ln
Europe or America," he said. "It cer
tainly won't do any injury to America.
It will amount t<> no more than a tem
porary flurry at the worst. I have
talked with many flnanelers ln Ger
manv and England, hnd all thlnk a
Balkan war will help Amerka by cre
Bting a fresh demand for American
foodstuffs and other products.
"(if mur*", Europe is now throwing
over American securities, but thls will
me.n money for Amerka eventually,
and rrobably in a very short tlme. as
America ls m.w buylng back at kt*_
pricea securities sold at hlgh prices.
and \vill suon sell to Europe again at
hlgh prices 00)00 more.
"As for Europe, whlle there is bound
to be a good deal of nervousness, whlch
accounts for the present situation on
the br.urses, I don't think there la real
danger of war spreadlng bey.nd the
Balkans. The great powers understand
too well the necesslty of conflning the
war area and are working ln close har
mony for thls puri*ose. I expect to see
the European markets soon recover
from this prelimlnary panic.
"Another thlng I notlced," Mr. Selig?
man continued, "ls a better feellng be?
tween 0_rmany and England. There is
undoubtedly nothing like as much
bltterness between the countries as
a year ago. The tone of both Ger?
man and English papers shows this.
and any one who moves much among
the (ierman "people muat notlce a better
feeling In the general talk.
Germany'a Navy Plan.
"Of course, Germany is bulldlng a J
big navy and forcing a rapld pace ln
that respect, but ahe ls building ships,
In accordance wlth a plan lald down
several years ago. and lt Is undoubted?
ly true that Germany believes her navy
makea for the peace of the world. At
any rate. the naval Increaseswill have to
atop soon, as the people can't stand
the burden of taxatlon requlred to
bulld ships and support the navy.
"Gerrnany's forced rate of naval ex
pendlture has lald a tremendous bur?
den of taxatlon on the English people,
but. heavy aa taxea are here, they do not
tornpare with Germany, where the
t-xes often double the rate ln Eng?
land. The people?I mean the maas of
People who work for a living aud pay
8o per cent of the taxes?rjan't carry
the burden much longer, and will re
fuse to accept a further Increase.
When this happens naval expanslon
"?III have to ceaae, and the ruling
classes will have to recognize that true
rivalry Is commercial, not mllltary."
Mr. Seligman depiored the false im
Presston of America given by the wide
?pread publiclty throughout Europe of
the Kostmthal murder, New York police
graft and almilar storles. He said:
"It la moat unfortunate that Euro
Pt-n papera print aa almoat thelr only
news from America sensational crlme
?torles. Thls la undoubtedly due ln
??rge meaaure to the prominence Amer?
ican papera give to thls claaa of newa.
The rwiult la that a majcrlty of the
P*ople of Europe get an entirely
errenous Impreeaion of America. They
thlnk lt ls a land of crlme. I hear com
ments eonstantly among all claeees of
l*"i_e which cannot help hurtlng
Arn^ticu and American.."
ROOM HUNTINO IN AN OFFICE.
Consult the Trlbune'a Room ano)
?Wd Regiater traa. 320 Trlbune Bldg.
PLAN BALKAN CAMPAIGN
Theorists Use Arithmetic to Predict Victory
for Turkish Forees, Basing Calculations
on Size of Rival Armies.
IBv Cable to The Tribune. 1
London, Oct. 12.? Mllltary txperts
and amateur strategists are busy plan?
ning _ campaign for the Balkan war.
The iniisensus nf opinion Is that Bul?
garia aid Turkey will be the chlef op
ponents, with Servia second in strength
of tho allles; Montenegro merely a
minir incldent, and Greece scarcelv
worth consldering. It ls generally ac?
cept?. that. the allles' objeetive will be
Constantinople. by way of Adrianople.
Bulgtrla Is expected to take the offen
slve agninst Adrianople lmmediately.
and guesses are mostly dlrected at
whether Turkey D IU be wlly enough to
withdraw her army south of Adriano?
ple, leaving that place heavlly garr!
soned. and thus compel the alllea to
leave a large part of thelr forees before
Adrianople to prevent n counter attack,
which would leave only about a hun?
dred thousand nien with whlch to un
dertnlce a march on Constantinople op
posed by a Turkish force Of a quarter
of a mllllon, or whether hatred of their
chrlMtlan foes will lead the Turks t0
throw their army between Adrianople
and the Bulgarian boundary ln order
to come to handgrips wlth the enemy
as soon as posslble.
The latter course undoubtedly offers
the best hope of Bulgarian vlctory, as
lt would permlt her to have her army
of 200,000 to 250,000 oppose that of
Turkey. Menntime. the Servian army
would menace the Salonica-rskub
rallway, whlch, with a Montenegrin Ji
vertissement and a Greclan menace
from the south, would compel Turkey
to keep another army of ? quarter of
TURKEY WOULD EMBROIL
ALL EUROPE IN WAR
Porte's Break in Peace Negoti?
ations with Italy Regarded
as SinisJter Move.
[Hy Cable to The Trlbune ]
Paris, Oct. 12?The rupture of the
Turco-Itallan peace negotiations ha:i
placed a splendld trump card in the
hands of the Bulgarlans. who are now
greatly elated. because they count
upon the ltallan fleet belng able to pre?
vent the transport of Turkish troops
from Smyrna to European Turkey
It is known in diplomatic clrcles here
that Nouradounghian Kffendl, the
Turkish Mlnister of Foreign Affalrs.
who ls an Armenian and a Christian.
is uslng every posslble effort to em
broil the European powers and draw
them Into the war. Thls, moreover, is
the only plauslble explanation of Tur
key's strunge method of causing a
break in the peace negotiations, be?
cause, from a milltary polnt of vlew.
Turkey has every possible reason for
?omlng to te.rms with Italy ln order to
tmct tbe possible Slav Invaslon from
The tonvictlon still prevails here,
even lf Italy resum.es hostilities and
co-oj>erates wltrf the Balkan League.
that both Auslrla-Hungary and Russia
wlll remnln neutral ln splte of the great
temptation to make an effort to rcullze
their respectlve tradltlonal polldes ln
The heavy concentratlons of Auatro
Hungarlan forees in Bosnia and Herze
govlna and along the Balkan frontlers.
and even the partlal mobilization 0_
three army "orps, cause no anxlety
whatever wlth Premier Poincare and
the* French government, because such
measures are regarded here as of pure
ly mllltary necesslty.
The understanding between Hussla
and Austria ls complete, and as the
latter power ls the one, whlch of all
otherH ls most likely to'pe drawn Into
the confllct lt ls slgnlf.cant that the
convlctlon prevails ln the best informed
diplomatic clrcles here that so long as
the Emi?eror Francis Jooeph lives a
war between Russia and Austria, an
eventuallty whlch would undoubtedly
start a general European conflagratlon,
will never take place aa far aa be can
In faet, the flrm attltude >f the
ven-rable Austrlan Kalscr. who has re?
cently been strongly urged to make use
of the present situation to reoc*upy the
sanjak of Novlpazar, whlch opens Aus
tria's road to Salonica, ls know t here
to be a sure guarantee of tne strlct
locallzation of the Balkan ccnlllct.
To-day _ sesslon of the Cabinet was
entirely devoted to the external polltl?
cal situation and to France's attltude
In connectlon wlth the developments ln
the war ln the Near East. The ltallan
Ambassador, Slgnor Tlttonl, vislted
Premier Polncar* and told hln that
the peace negotiations between Italy
and Turkey had reached a crltlcal
Accordlng to "Le Temps," Italy ls
likely Indlrectly to aupport the Balkan
coalltion by landlng a strong force ln
Greece to co-operate with the Hellenlc
army, or make a naval demonstration
off the coast of Asla Mlnor.
FRENCH AMBASSADOR HERE
M. Jusserand Seen Loti Play on Au?
thor *? Wireless InviUtion.
Jules J. Juaserand. the French Ambaa
oador. who has been home on annual
leave, returned yesterday on the French
llner Ia Provence from Havre. When ln
mid-Atlantlc the ambassador received a
wireless message from Plerre Lotl invlt
Ing hlm to attend the opening perform?
ance of ihe author's play "A Daughter
M Jusaerand arrived too late to attend
the matlnee vesterday, but attended the
evening performance laat nlght at the
Century Theatre. He wlll go to Waah?
lngton on Monday.
a million occupled to prevent the reln
forclng of tlie forces.
Part of the Bulgarlan army, amount
ing to forty thousand or fifty thousand
men. must be kept near the coaat of
the Black Sea to prevent a Turkish In?
vasion ln that quarter.
Thls Is the comparatively simple
plan of campaign flgured out by ex
perts in comfortable offlces. The polnt
seems largely lost sight of that the
allles enter the fleld wlth practlcally all
thelr avallable forces. The moblllza
tlons have drawn every able-bodled
man to tho standards, and there are no
reserves to fall back on, no further
troops to enter the confllct, and by
throwing thelr entlre force Into the
fleld they have succeeded ln musterlng
nn army npproxlmately equal to the
Turkish forces ln Europe, whlle Tur?
key ls able to oppose the allles wlth
an equal force at the outaet, and as
the war proceeds will be constantly ln?
creasing her army by drafts from Asla
In a short tlme, if Turkey holds her
opponents ln the flrst battles, she will
have ln the fleld nearly three times as
many men as the allles. Furthermorc,
wlnter will soon make campalgnlng ex
tremely difflcult and glve Turkey untll
sprlng to concentrate her huge army
agalnst an enemy wlth no posslble
means of addlng to Its strength.
Flnally the strateglsts are ngreed
that the outlook is at best f->r ? few
prelimlnary vlctories by the allles tn a
war of unexampled feroelty on ac?
count of mutual hatred. wlth ultlmate
victory of the Turks by tbe nheer force
of overwhclmtng numbcrs.
ST. PETERSBURG UNMOVED
BY AUSTRIAN AMBITIONS
Count Berchtold's Aggressive
Plans Known Almost as Soon
as He Formulated Them.
Iii. OaMe to TM TMboae I
St. Petersburg. I >?t. 12..-Scnrcely a
rijiple on the Neva has been caused by
th.* ropOftl from Vienna of another ef?
fort by Count Her.htold tO extend the
Austrlan frontier at the expeiise of the
Balkan States. Turkey nnd th.- baslc
Interests of peace In Europe.
In the best Informed elrclcs here It Is
declared that fount Berehtold. astute
though he undoubtedly Is, has lost the
flrst throw by cxposing hls hand. To
hls amazlng aBCTBC* was due the suc?
cess of his Pnsnla-Her_egovlna 000]
He eompletely decdved Europe untll lt
WBB tor. lat-* u, take effectlve negatlve
In plannlng hls great Austro-Bnlkan
confederatlnn. however, tM has been
foreed to take UM nmny rival Interests
lnto hls confidence. Hls plans were
known here. ln London. In Berlln and
In 'Paris wlthln n week of the first
negotiatlons among Vienna, Hofl.i,
Cettlnje and Belgrade.
The maln purpose of M. Poincnr'-'s
\u-lt to St. Petersburg and M. Saz >
noff's trlp to I/ondon and Paris was to
coiisicier Jolnt action agalnst Austria In
the event of the Berehtold s-'hemu
taktng practical shape.
Meanwhile the Halkan States were
advlsed to act cautlously. Rumanlft
scoute.l the flrst proposals from Vienna.
The sudden outbreak Of war may help
Count Berehtold, but so suro as the
eonfederatlon is decided upon Russlan
troops wtll move lnto the Balkans and
a Hrltlsh fleet wlU be patrolllng the
MmBMXB 8ea. .
The ambltlous Halkan rulers will flnci
themselves MCllffc.- If thev accept tbe
Austrlan bnlt. It ls donbted whether
the paclflc Emperor Frnnrls Jose-pn
will p.rmlt hls Fore|Kn Mlnister to pro?
ceed wlth hls project In face of the
united opposltlon of Europe.
PLAN ANWIALS; HOSPITAL
Offlcers of Women's League
Back from Study in Europe.
Wlth plana for n model animal ho*,\r\
tal. fashloned after the most approved
methods of Europe, three women actlvely
Interested In New York's humane work
arrlved yesterday on the steamshlp Amer?
ika Mrs Jame* Speyer, president of the
New York Women's League for Anlmals;
Mlss Bil Mat.cl < Mark. flrst vlce-prest
dent, and Mrs. C. C. Cuyler. second vice
presldent. have been abroad several
months lookhiK over varlous lnr-tltutlona
for the rellef of diimli beasts In England,
(lermany and Prance.
The New York Women's I-eague for
Anlmals formerly was the women's aux
lllary to the Amerlcan Soclety for the
lYeventlon of Cruelty to Anlmals. but a
f>w y-ears ago lt outgrew these ausplces
and started tn to do things.
A free animal ellnlc and dispen-arv at
No. 326 Lafayette street. planned by Mrs.
Speyer, hns been malntalned by tbe
league, and thousands of the horses of
the nelghborhood breadwlnnera of the
poor-have been h?Iped out of stckness.
It was to equlp the league wlth the best
Informatlon oblainal.le that Mrs Speyer
\ rnt al-road in July She sald yesterday
she thought she had **cceede<l, nnd that
she would place in eftect In the new aotm*
torlum to be bullt at Bond and Laftyette
streets the principles found most hene
flclal ln England and on the Contlnent.
Mrs. Speyer sald the work on the new
hospital would begln wlthln a few weeks.
WANTS NO CONSUMPTIVES
Texas Can Afford No Relief,
Oolquitt Tells Dix.
Albany, Oct. 12.?Governor Dlx recelved
to-day a letter from Governor O. B. Col
qultt of Texas asklng hlm to Impreaa on
the reatdents of thls state that It la Inad
vlaable for tuberculosls patlents to vlslt
Texas ln searcb of rellef. He polnta out
that the hospital facllltlea are Inadequate.
"Hardahlp and disappolntment only will
result If tuberculosls sufferers come to
thls state wlth the hope of belng restored
to health," says (itfrernor Colqultt.
CLASH IN BALKANS
Cnntlnued from flr-t page.
that she would give it up without a
Meanwhlle the powers are dlsplaylng
daily thelr inablllty to comblne for
peace and the Jealousy which has
made possible a war whlch promises to
be one of the most cruel and ferocious
of modern tlmes.
lt ls most unfortunate for the Anglo
Saxon people f Jft England, whlch
might have done so much to prevent
the war, should allow thoughts of poa?
alble unreat and dlsturbance among
her Mussulman subjeets, and generally
a pollcy of utllltarlanlsm, to domlnatd
the duty to humanity of a Chrlstion
The Turkish Cabinet has been en
gaged ln framlng a reply to the powers'
collectlve note, but at the same tlmo
the Sultan foreshadowed the nature of
the reply by the Issuanco of a proc?
lamatlon for a general mobilization,
whlch ls a formal notlflcatlon of what
Turkey has been doing during the last
fortnight and an exhortation tn the
army to flght worthlly.
Greece ls equally above board wlth
her preparatlons. Crown Prlnce Con
stantine left Athens to-day to tako
command of the army.
Concantrate Against Bulgaria.
Vienna adviees say that Turkey will
mass iMyOOO men against Bulgaria and
leave only two dlvlslons to oppose
Montenegro. Turkey apparently ls
wllllng to sacrlflce her outposts on that
border for the tlme belng.
Latest advlces from Podgoritza say
that the Montenegrlns have occupled
the town 0. Tushl and that great
losses have occurred on both sldes.
The mobilUatlon of the Oreek armv
has been succesBful beyond expecta?
tion. Troops to the number of l__MM0
will be concentrnted on the frontler by
Monday and another MvOOl are belng
equlpped. The mobilization centres of
the government are overwhelmed wlth
volunteers. and lt has been dedded to
enroll no more recrults for the present.
The Bulgarian government has
framed n reply to the Russo-Austrlan
note, and, It ls understood, wlll present
It to the representutlves of HvOM coun?
tries tn-mt.rrow. In effect, the reply
ilcclan s that the repro-tentatlons i.f th?
power*. arr vague and were made it
too late a.date. I
Accusations of Bad Faith.
Vienna and St. I'et?rsburg newspa?
pers are prlntlng _**tlc*__ hlntlng nt bfl
falth. The Austro-Ilungarlan gtttt
Hecu-.es Rusala of JOCt-U. bat king the
combination _g..lnat Turkey. A sectlnn
of the Fretnh press blames Great Brl?
taln, declarlng thnt ahe prevented the
pnwers from making a strong stand
Hgalnnt the war.
Kun pe Is amazed at Turkey's failure
to accept the ltallan gathtt terms at
thls crltlcal moment, and ll nlno wor
rl< <1 b" uii-c ln Italy's purtidpatlon In
the Ml th.re ls danger of drnwlng ln
the other powers.
The situation was well summed up
hv M. JaurAs, the French Soclallst
leader, ln nn lntervlaw published In
I'aris yesterday. He sald "The dan
g.-r Is overwhelmlng. The mere faet
of the bltternes* of the flght wlll mul
tlply the temptatlona of Russia and
Austria to Interwne. In addition to the
pretextB for Interventlon whlch exint
nlready, Servian statesmen announce
tbat the Servians In the sanjak are
ready to rebeJ If thereby they can shake
off the Turkish yoke. Thls would be
done in the name of greater Servia. nnd
there we have the casus bei 11 Uild down
"On the other hand, we hear thnt
Russlaii volunteers are hastenlng to
Join the Balkan armlea. Thus Russia
penetrates the Balkans. ln the devel?
opment of the crisls not a alngle minute
can paaa which doea not create betw-en
Russia and Austria ocensions for con
If lt had been necessary to set the
seal on hopea for peace, Davld Lloyd
George and the Sultan of Turkey com
blned to do so yeetcrdny. Mr. Lloyd
George. ln a speech to the Natlonal
Unlon of Journallsts at the Hotel Cecll,
sald: "Out of the black cloud whlch
has darkened southeastern Europe for
some tlme the 1-rid tiame of war has
leaped, and the prospect eei-ms to be
that in a very ahort tlme the Eastern
horlzon wlll be ablaze. We may be
permitted here to express two hopes:
Flrst, that the area of the conflagratlon
wlll be llmited, and, second, that what
ever may be the lssue of th. confllct
?M result wlll inure. I mean that
the boundartes of freedom and good
government wlll be extended."
Tiie Sultan Issued a proclamatlon or
derlng a general mobilization. In hls
proclamatlon the Sultan exhorts hls
troops to flght wlth the courage of
thelr ancestors and to show themselves
worthy of thelr brothers In Trlpoll.
The proclamatlon proceeds:
The sacred duty of defendlng the
fatheilund devolves on you. lt Is vour
rli.tv not lo allow- enemlea to tread an
In.h on the sacred sol! soaked wlth the
Mood of your ar.ce-.tor*. (lod grant you
iniiv alway? be vlctorloua and make the
iini.nians happy by your comiuests.
The reply of Turkey to the note of
tl..- powera Is belleved to have been
dellvered yesterday. It ls sald that the
proposals have been nelther accepted
nor rejected. The reply of the allles ls
expected to-day and wlll probably be
followed by a declaratlon of war.
The official rupture of the Turco
Itallan peace negotiations ls expected
hourly. and It la belleved that Italy ylll
give the Balkan allles varbal aaaur
ancea of help. She wlll probably join
Greece ln a landlng on Aala Mlnor. It
ia underatood that the break ln the
negotiations came over the queation of
the indemnity to be paid to Turkey by
The failure of the negotiatlona with
Italy not only greatly complicates the
situation ln Turkey. but adds to the
danger of a epread of the war. Italjr
Is likely no longer to conflne her opera
tlons to Trlpoll, but will for all prac?
tical purposes become an ally of the
Balkan States. Her action would seem
to endanger the Triple Alllance unless,
as has been suggested, there ls an un
derstandlng between Bulgaria and Aus?
tria for the partltion of Turkey.
TO DRIVE OUT THE TURKS
Austria Said To Be in League
with Balkan States.
IBy C'abls to Th? Trlbtin*- 1
Vienna, Oct. 12.?Rumors of secret
Auslro-Balkan negotlatlons whlch, lt ls
said, have been proceeding for months,
detall a sensatlonal scheme by means
of whlch Austrla-Hungary hopes to
selze the balance of power ln South
eastern Europe. The mysterlous visit
of Klng Ferdlnand of Bulgaria to
Francls Joseph, the latter's guard d
statements to Parllament and the am
bassadors, the slgnlflcant threats by
lnnuendo of Count Berehthold, Aus
trla's Foreign Mlnister and admlttedly
the Mcyernlch or Talleyrand of to-day,
are all explalned by these reports.
Austrla-Hungnry and the Balkan
States, according to these rumors, are
lu ab^olute alllance, offenslve and de
fenslve. The octogenarlan head of Ihe
Hapsburgs will, at the rlght moment,
proclalm himself at the h?ad of the
new crusade agalnst the Turk: the
baeaje.ot Vienna by the Moslem hordes
ln the zenlth of the relgn of the Paynlm
ln Europe ls to be avenged now by
drlvlng the Turk from Europe and re
storlng the Cross to pr2-emlnence ln
the Imperial clty of Constantlne.
The following are sald to be the maln
provlslons of the Austro-Balkan agree?
Austria to use her lnfluence wlth the
concert of Europe to assure non-lnter
ference wlth the advance of her allles,
Bulgaria, Servia and Montenegro,
agalnst the Turks; to throw her army
lnto tho fleld ln the event of TurkHh
success. and lf the powers threaten the
Hnlk.in alllance to support the latter
<m btnd and sea.
Rumania and Greece to be lnvlted to
Joln thls confederatlon.
Greece to be offered a rharc ln the
partltion of Turkey ln Europe.
Thi rtlgnlng houses |n the confed?
eratlon to prcserve their regal rank, but
tli- fmances of each state to be regu
lat.-d by an Imperial commlssion to be
iie.id.'d by tlie Austrhin C-ULBCOllor,
WAR FEVER HIGH IN ROME
"On to Constantinople I" the
t !**>- ftihlo to The Trlt'iinc- ]
Rome, Oet. 12? The war fever here
has been revlved wlth fury by reporta
i.f Montenegrin auccesses and seml
ofllcial admissloiis that Italy BCCUMt
Austria of grosa tad falth ln englneer
Ing the peace negotlatlons wlth tbe ex?
press purpose of robblng the vlctorious
Itnllans of the fruits of thelr arduous
campuigns agalnst the Turks. Tho ut
most indlgnatlon prevalls. and the < ry
"On to Comtantlnople!" is heard on
The government Is taklng advantage
of thls sltuatlon to ruah mobilization
and the dispatch of every avallubb
lt.illan soldler to ports convenlent for
debarkatlon on the Turkish mainlanc'.
The n.et has steam up and ls stundlng
by to coiivoy the transports to the ex
pect"d scene of confllct. The war coun
ti\ 't ls gtated. favors a awlft descent
upon both Constantinople and Salonlea.
TlM maln body of the army is to be
lande.l between Enos and QoHlpoll,
?ttpportod by the lighter shlps of tne
fleet. whlch will threaten the entrance
to the Durdaii.-lles, whlle the heavler
fOOBaAi and a force of marines assnil
Salonlea. By thus earrylng tlio n
suinptlon of the war lnto European
Turkey, Italy hopes to antlcipate ___??
trlu's deslgns and make eotnmon eau.-e
with the Balkan States In 'Ihe holy
AN AUSTRO-BALKAN PACT
War Involving Three Great
Powers Is a Probability.
|lly fiMr to Th? Trlbun*. 1
Ixmdon, Oct. 1_? From Vienna comes
a sensatlonal report of an Austro-Bal
kun agreement laying the basls for a
new European Imperial confederatlon.
Sir Edward Grey, Seeretary of State
for Foreign Affairs, decllnes to dlscuss
the proposltlon or to admit that Great
Hrttuln ls ofllcially aware of its exist
astee ln fact. In dlplotnattc clrcles,
however, the report ls given general
credence, und lt doejj not seem to have
tak' n the embassles by surprlse.
A former Under Seeretary for Foreign
Affairs ls authority for the stutement
that Auatrla's intentlons ln thls re?
gard have been the aubject of ofllclal
corespondence among England, Ger
many, Russla and Franee for the laat
month or six weeks. Those natlons.
he saya, will never tolerate Buch a
strong comblnatlon ln the Near East.
"It would be a atunding menace," he
aald, "to every European power and
would destroy the Balkan buffer, to
ereate which the powers of Europe
have co-operated aa far as poaslble ln
frlendly asslstance to Bulgaria, Ru?
mania, Servia and Montenegro.
?Rumania." he added, "will not
enter such an alllance, but will, on the
contrary. support Turkey wlth the ald
and approval of RubsIb."
The bellef is growlng ln Downing
Street that a European war whlch
would lnvolve three, if not all. the
great powers is an Impendlng prob
The sudden change of ordera by the
Admlrulty, etrengthenlng the Brltlsn
fleet ln the Mediterranean. is deemed
signifloant of the extreme gravlty of
AMBA38ADOR 8AIL8 TO-DAY.
Cherbourg. Oct 12.?The German Am
baasador. Count von Bernatorff. who haa
been ln Europe for the last two months,
will be a paaaenger on the steamshlp
Kalat-rtn Auguate Vletoria, salllng from
Cherbourg for New York to-morrow. The
ambasa^do** le accompanled by Countess
THE EA8|'e8T WAY.
A condenaed li?t of rooma ln the
Tribune- Room and Boar-d Reoiater.
Conault it 320 Tribune JBIdg.?A.vt
ITALY GRANTS 3 DAYS'
* GRACE TO TURKEY
Porte Must Decide by Tuesday
for Peace or More Vig
Paris, Oct. 12.?Italy to-night granted
thrre days' grace to Turkey to decide
whether It shall be p"uee or a con
tinuance of the war. If by Twsday
evening the Turkish government ls not
prepared to sign the protocol the
ltallan fleet wlll lmm.edlati.ly be dls
patched to strike a blow at a more
vital part of the Ottoman Empire than
has yet been reached.
The threatened rupture of the negO(
tlatlons between the ltallan and
Turkish representatlvea at Ouchy has
occupled the dlplomats of Europe to
day almost to the exclusion of the Bal
knn Imbrogllo. The powers have con
centrated thelr efforts to prevent Tur?
key from placing In the hands of the
Balkan federation such a trump card as
would be the failure of the p.urparlers.
whlch have been a large factor ln cnu_
Ing the he.sltutlon of Bulgaria, Greece
and Servia to declare war.
It ls polnted out that whlle Italy
ls stlll flghtlng the Mussulmans the
posltlon of the Balkan States ls so
enormouslv strengthened that the
jsiwers feel that nothing could re
straln them. But wlth Turkey free
from the ltallan danger an entirely
new perspectlve ls created. The Greek
fleet then would be practically put out
of action, and large contlngents of the
Greek army would be tled up guard
lng the coasts, whlle Turkey would be
able, without restrlctlon, to move
hordes of her flnest flghtlng men from
Asla Mlnor agalnat the Balkan ln
Italy, ln grantlng a fresh delay ln the
peace settlement, ls secondlng the ef?
forts of the powera The ltallan Am?
bassador, Slgnor Tlttonl, had no fewer
than three conferencea to-day wlth M.
Polncar*-, the French Premier. Italy's
desire for peace ls explained on the
ground that she fears complicatlons
mlght follow an attack by her on a
port ln European watera, or in the
vlcinlty of those waters.
Dlplomats find it dlfflcult to credit
that Turkey will malntaln her demands
made at the laat moment The terms
were all agreed to, when the Ottoman
government suddenly proposed that the
clauses favorable to Turkey should be
lmmediately effectlve, whlle the appll
catlon of those unfavorable to Turkey
should be postponed until ratlfled by
the Ottoman parllament. As an ln
stance, Turkey accepts the elause that
the .Egean Islands shall lmmediately
revert to her. but demands that the'
Turkish troops ln Trlpoll shall remaln,
pendlng the action of the Ottoman
M0NTENEGR1NS MAKE RAID
Penetrate Novipazar Nearly to
Constantinople, Oct 12.?Montene?
grin forees havo crossed the border
into the Sanjak of Novipazar, and are
now attacklng Slenltza, accordlng to
ofllclal lnformation received by the
PorU to-day. Slenltza ls a town close
to the Servian frontler.
o tne ne.vin.ii _.??_?? ?
The text of the collectlve note handed
the representatlvea of the POW?
to the Ottoman government on Tnurs
day ls as follows:
The underslgned ambassadors of Au?
.ri_ tlun_ .rv Great Brltaln, France, Rus
1 L ani viennany have been 'nstruced
thelr reap-etfri g*>vernmPnt'' t0 J"!
orm the Hu.ltme fcto thgt the flve
Dowers take note of the Intentlon ol iur
lv lubllely announced. to lntroduce re
fiVm*. a 1 they wttl lmmediately dlscusa
.1 t " Porte. In the pplrtt of Article
XXIII Of th. tr-aty of Berlin and the law
V ino, the reforms requlred ln the ad?
ministration of Kuropean Turkey and the
me-surea capabla of assurlng thelr real -
?'"t o? ln th- interest of the populations.lt
he ng i nderstood that the reforms wlU not
Iftrrt tho terrltorlal Integrtty of the Otto?
man Kmplre. _
LOAN PROSPECTS BRIGHTER
American Group's Representa
tive Visits Hu'ntington Wilson.
(From The Trlbune Bureau. 1
Washington. Oct. 12.-Prospects for a
big loan to rhtna by the stx-power group
ure regarded as brlghter than they were
aeveral weeks ago, accordlng to Wlllard
p Stralght. representatlve of the Ameri?
can' group In Chlna. who called on the
Aetlr.g Secretary of> State, Hunttngton
Wilson, to-day and dlacusaed the subject,
toRether wlth other matters of a personal
nature. the two men being warm friends.
Mr. Stralght Informed the State Depart-'
ment that then was -very tndlcatlon of
the six powers stnndlng together In the
negotiations wlth Chlna, and that the re
rent development. and reporta of other
l,?ins had not materially affected the
origlnal understanding ln a/y degree.
However, the vlsit of Mr. Stralght ls re?
garded as slgnlncant of posslble mlnor
changes ln the MM orlglnally lald down.
and that the advlce or approval of the
State Department was sought for that
Mr Stralght retumed to New York thls
afternoon without dtscusslng the exact
nature of hls mlsslon to WuBhtngton. Mr.
Wilson would not comment to any great
extent on the subject.
FLAG DAY IN LAWRENCE
30,000 Carry Stars and Stripes
in I. W. W. Protest.
T.awr.'tice, Masa.. Oct. 13-Thirty thou?
sand American flaga were carried through
three miles of muddy streets to-day by
thirty thousand men, women and children
ln a novel demonatratlon against the In
dustrlal Workers of the World. The clty
was a miiaa of flags and buntlng, hardlr
a bulldlng belng without decorattons.
Llntng the streets through whlch the pa?
rade pasaed, the apectatora stood ten
daep. and almoat without exceptlon they
either waved the Stars and Stripes or
wore mlniature flags.
Representatlvea of the clty government,
veterane of tha Clvll and Spanlsh-Amert
can wars and members of church, clvic
and fraternal organlzatlona were In llne.
Membere of the Qrand Army and of the
Boy ScoutB and other boya' marchlng
clubs wore the only unlforms displayed
except by the muslclans. The police took
no part in tbe parade except to keep the
crowds back along the side ilnea
The Une paased beneath a big red, whlte
and blue arch on one atreet, bearlng the
"For Ood and country. ' The Stars and
Stripes forever. the red flag never. A
protest agalnat the lnduatrtal Workera of
tbe *'orld. iu prlnciplea and methods."
Values of Every Description
Fall in Paris.
BERLIN BOERSE PANICKY
Leading Bankers Expect Still
Lower Level, but See No
Cause for Alarm.
[Hv- Cable to The Trlbune. 1
Paris, Oct. 12.?The slump whlch oc?
curred on the Paris Bourse to-day
carrled values of every description wlth
lt. and Freneh rentes sank a fractlon
under HS, whlch ls the lowest -inotatlon
recorded since the German war scare
of 1800. Leading bankers and directors
of big credit establishment-** express
the oplnion, however, that selling or
ders are likely to contlnue and that
prices wlU probably reach a stlll lower
level, although they confldently pre
dlct that there is no real panic ln view.
The slump, rnoreover, was due large
ly to economlc reasona and to the
overcharged speculatlve positlons as?
sumed by petty operators, who stam
pede llke coveys of partrldgea as aoon
aa sharp falls in prlcea ensue.
?Of course the Balkan war was the
maln cause of to-day's serious ahrlnk
age of values, affectlng not only
Freneh rentes, but securities of every
description. Leading bankers, how?
ever, assure your correspondent that
the present altuatlon bas never as?
sumed the proportions of a panlo and
that there ls no real cause for alarm,
although it ls qmte likely art the next
fortnightly settlement, on October 1ft,
there may be a sharp collapse In prlcea
all along the line, wlth llvely hammer
lng of speeulatora unable to get thelr
losses. It le estimated that more than
$-300,000,000 worth of Freneh capital
ls Invested ln Turkey, Greece, Bul?
garia and Servia, of whlch aum about
two-thlrds are ln Turkey.
Berlln, Oct. 12.? The Berlln Boerse waa
very panicky to-day, owing to reports
from Vienna and varlous wlld rumors aa
to the Halkan situation. The reported re
tirement of Serglus Sazonoff. the Russlan
Foreign Minister, also had an enervatlng
effect There were many reallsatlons, and
prices fell contlnually. Canadian Paclflc s
decllned 6**4 polnts.
As the sesslon proceeded the market be?
came so thoroughly demorallzed that offl?
eial and financial clrcles were foreed to
interfere. The government sent repeated
assurances that there was no danger of
compltcatlons outslde the Balkaii-j, wlnle
the big banks met before tjetf openlng
and decided to try to check the decline by
giving buylng orders.
These efforts prevented the bottnm
dropplng out of the market entirely, but
dld not stop a general collapse. Ths f..U
ranged from 1 to 4 polnts ln governm- nt
stocks, 2 polnts ln bank stocks and from
!0 to 25 polnts ln Industrlal shares Then
was no buylng by the general public.
The sltuatlon In the grain market con?
trlbuted to the rout. There were jumi s
of 7 marks (fl TS) a ton In rye and t
marks ($1) ln wheat. varlations whl'* i
have not been paralleled for many | * ??
20 CONVICTS BREAK JAIL
*'Jim" Dalton Leads Band That
Escapes to Wyoming Hills.
Rawlins, Wyo., Oct 12.-Twenty con?
vlcts, led by the noiorlous "Jlm" Dalton.
member of the Whitney gang of bank
robbers, eseaped through a broken fence
in the penltentlary yard thla afternoon.
Eleven were atlll at large to-nlght and
the posalbUlty of thelr recapture la re
mote, since they are belleved to have
gained the hills north of the town.
The relgn of terror whlch holds the
town to-nlght began at - o'clock thls af?
ternoon, when from the penttentiary
burst a bedlam of shouts of convlcts and
through the etreeta of the northern part
of the town nlneteen men ln prlson u_rt
form ran ln a body.
Horses tethered ln front of a&loone were
seized by the leaders and bore them _4
breakneck speed through the town and
away to the hllla, outdistandng the
guards who rlosed ln on the rear ef tha
fugltlves after loslng precloua mlnutes In
vestigatlng the cause of tbe uproar tn the
Four of the convlcts selsed a grocery
wagon and compelled the boy drlver to
race for the hills. When the horse gave
out they loaded themselves with IU pro
vislons and ran.
Four of the fugltlves hldlng in a canyon
north of Rawlins were caught half an
hour after the outbreak, and a flfth waa
captured maklng for the rallroad tracks.
Three were cornered ln another canyon
a mlle west of the town by mounted pur
suors. but have not yet been taken.
The guards returnlng wlth the flve pris?
oners were greeted by the convlcts wlth
groans, and it was then dlscovered that
ln the exdtement of the pursult another
prlsoner had eacaped, maklng twenty ln
all. ? ?
Four fugltlves were dlacovered to-nlght
hldlng ln a barn wlthln a block of the
prlson. Two were caught by guarda, but
two got away from the offlcers, who
feared to tire because of a crowd ta the
vtclntty. A llttle later Warden Alston
arrlved at the penltentlary wlth two men
he had taken single handed.
A aearchlng party of cltlaens is scour
Ing the vlclnlty and armed men patrol
the streets to prevent a posslble night de
scent of the convlcts In search of clothing
LAKE STEAMER GOES DOWN
The S. K. Martin Sinks, bot Al) on
Board Reach Short..
Erle, Penn., Oct. 12.?The steamer 8. K.
Martln, of Benton Harbor. Mlch.^bound
from Buffalo for Erle wlth coal. went
down off Harbor Creek at 3 o'clock thla
afternoon. Captain W. J. Jock and ten
others. lncluding one woman. the atew
ardess, escaped after one of the hardeat
flghte ever experlenced on Lake Erle.
In the llttle yawl the elwen persona left
the ateamer one mlle from shore. Tosaed
back and forth on the waves, they fought
for an hour before they could reach the
About 1 o'clock thls afternoon one of
the seams of the frelghter parted and
?water began to pour lnto the veaael. The
pumps were manned and wlth all poealble
epeed the ateamer waa ruahed aboreward.
but when more than a mlle out Captain
Jock ordered all nanda to take to the
^Before the llttle boat had gone one hun?
dred feet from the frelghter ;he Martin
lurched and sank.