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"Weekly Review H-34"|
ewers in detail this situation.
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MARK A. N08L- THEODORE C. CORWIN
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< ?<?>,>?:<? , 11 ? I Uro?-.'
Germany's Collapse Opens
Russia for American Traders
Teuton Revolution and Socialist Ascendancy End Kaiser's
Dream of Dominating Distraught Slavic Country and
Foreshadow Fall of the Bolsheviki
By Carl Snyder
The sensational collapse of Ger- j
many brings a more portentous
problem at the war's end than al
most anyone had imagined. It is j
not merely the rout of imperial and
dynastic and militaristic Germany.
It seems, at the moment, likewise!
the downfall of that powerful finan?
cial and industrial regime which '?
made Germany, up to the beginning
of the war, the foremost industrial ;
and commercial nation of Europe;
which raised its output of iron and I
steel and copper manufacturers, its j
output of sugar and fertilizers and
chemicals far above that of Great ;
Britain or trance, and second only!
tc that of the United States.
Under this same regime Ger- j
many's shipping and lier export
trade became the strongest rival of j
England in the world, and in the !
last year before the war the totals
of that foreign trade slightly over?
topped that of "the mistress of the
seas." With the aids of subsidies
and bonuses, the powerful backing
of the government, the syndication
of trade into large units, this
r?gime made of Germany the most
feared competitor in the world's
markets. And a part of this r?gime,
almost the very centre of it, was
the Kaiser and his chief friends.
To-day the government is handed
over to the Socialists, and a Social?
ist Premier is in office. Revolution
stalks the length of the empire and
seems to portend the disruption of
the empire itself. Rival govern?
ments are being set up, mushroom!
republics created. The whole has a ?
threatening and sinister likeness to:
the march of the revolution in :
Russia. ' j
The Revolution and
Germany's Trade Position
Even before the war the Socialists |
had become the strongest single
party in the Reichstag and in Ger?
many. In many respects it did not ;
represent so much an assertion of
socialistic principles as a protest'
against the autocratic and imperial i
r?gime, and against the whole in- !
dustrial and commercial drift of!
modern Germany. With that r?- ;
gime overthrown, as it seems at this j
writing, completely cast down, and |
a socialistic and anti-plutocratic j
party in power, what will be the ;
effect ' upon Germany's trade and j
likewise upon Germany's industries? '
For there is another side to Ger- j
many's industrial aggression. It
had likewise become the greatest
buyer in Europe. It was the larg?
est customer of England, of France
and of Russia. It was the second
largest consuming country in cotton.
It was the second largest buyer of
copper. It was a large purchaser
J of food. It was the second nation
I in shipping in the world. If the
j revolution should follow the course
' of the revolution in Russia and end
| with the complete prostration of
German industry, such as has been
in Russia, then many of the expecta?
tions which had been built upon the
successful closing of the war, must
be radically changed.
The repercussion of this will be
felt strongly even in the United
States. Even if the revolution
should mean no more than the dis?
ruption of the German Empire, the
complete overthrow of the old sys?
tem of aggression, the end of the
strenuous support of a strongly
centralized and vigorous govern?
ment, it will still be of farreaching
importance. It would be a miracle,
of intelligence if a socialistic gov?
ernment could join hands with the
great banks, the great syndicates,
the great shipping companies, the
steel magnates, to reestablish a
strong and pushing Germany in the
There are many reasons for be?
lieving that the thing is impossible.
First of all, there are the vast war
debts. Secondly, the question of
i heavy indemnities. Third, the mon
: rtrous output of paper money.
j Fourth, the depreciation of German
j exchange in consequence of this de
I preciation of the currency.
The Spectre of
j Debt Repudiation
! Largest of all looms the spectre
? of repudiation. It is true that Ger
; many's war loans have been widely
taken by all classes of people. They
have been popular loans exactly like
j those of the other warring countries.
' But Germany has lived so far in
j the dream of huge indemnities to
j come to her that her war taxation
has been slight. Taxes to meet only
the interest on these war loans will
be for Germany of unexampled
severity. If now to these are added
large indemnities, which she must
pay, there seems little doubt that
there- will be a strongly backed
movement to repudiate all war obli?
gations, oven at the cost of the
break-up of the empire. Indeed, the
very handing over of the govern?
ment by the Kaiser to a Socialist
Chancellor had in it some of h??
threat. If that craft and guile, which
we have come to associate with
dynastic Germany stood behind this
sensational act, it may have much
meaning for the future. Driven back
to the last ditch, it might well have
been a Machiavellian move of the old
r?gime to plunge Germany into dis?
order and chaos, disrupt the govern?
ment, surrender power to the revo?
lutionists, with the sure "faith that
in their hatred of capitalism these
would rub the slate clean of the
thirty billions or more of the war's
burdens under which Germany was
staggering. Nor could a prostrate
Germany, split up into small states
and warring republics, be an easy
levy for the reparation which the
Allies will demand. Great craft and
guile may still be behind the abdica?
Meanwhile, for the United States,
the present situation presents an
opportunity of almost unrivalled
magnitude. The collapse of the Ger?
man r?gime means, with the dark
famine that now seems to impend
in Russia, almost certainly the end
of the Bolshevik rule of that stricken
land. The withdrawal of the sup?
port of the German armies and of
German gold ought to make way for
the ?establishment of a sane and
stable government and the reorgan?
ization of the nation's industrial and
The vista opened is tremendous,
Here is a population of 150,000,000.
extending over half of Europe
that is more like a remnant of tht
mediaeval world lingering on inte
this modern day. In the las!
quarter of a century Russia hat
seen the beginnings of a great de
velopment. This was completely
arrested and then shattered by tht
war. There is almost everything tt
rebuild and reorganize. Russu
needs 100,000 miles of new railways
with modern granaries and ware
houses and docks and equipment t<
match. 11 is almost completely
lacking in improved country roads
The use of the automoble is only a
the beginning. It can use easily
it has great need for. 1,000,00(1
l.,000,000 motor cars and moto
trucks, to say nothing of tractor
and ploughs and thrashing ma
chines and harvesters and all o
modern farm equipment.
All that Russia needs is capita
business energy and constructiv
and organizing talent. All of thes
it was Germany's ambitious dreai
to supply. That was to be her grea
reward from this war. This wa
her prize. Now, almost at the m<
ment when this dream seemed o
the point of materializing, the oj
portunity appears destined to 1
' struck from its grasp.
i This is America's wonderfi
j chance. We have everything thi
? Bussia needs. We can make ar
( ship and build in Russia this 100,0(
: miles of railway. We can build hi
i good -roads. We can supply 1.00(
| 000, 2,000,000 motor cars and mot?
i trucks. We can fabricate all tl
i tractors and farm machinery whi?
; she can use. We shall soon have tl
j ships and we have the men to tal
j ?all this produce there and to p
? it into motion. All that is need?
I _ _
OF BUFFALO, N. Y.
Two Hundred and Fifty-fourth Statement (Condensed), November 1st, 1918
Loans and Discount? . $27,052,711.16 Capital .$5,000,000.00
U. S. Bond?. 18,047,109.00 Surplus and Profits. . 4,693,228.70
Bonds and Securities. 17,554,041.01 Reserve for Depre
Real Estate. 1,500,001.00 i ciation. 145,000.00
Customers' Liability ?Reserve for Taxes... 135,000.00
Account of Ac- ; Circulation . 3,927,240.00
ceptances . 1,400,000.00 '. Acceptances Executed
Cash and with Banks for Customers.1,400,000.00
(net). 7,905,873.32 ! Deposits (net) . 58,159,266.79
$73,459,735.49 I $73,459,735.49
GEORGE F. RAND, Chairman of the Board
JOHN L. CLAWSON, Vice-President
ANSON C. GOODYEAR, Vice-Pres.
EMIL DIFFINE, Vice-Pres.
PERCY W. DARBY, Asst. Cashier
GEORGE E. BECKER, Asst. Cashier
EDWIN J. VOLTZ, Asst. Cashier
JOHN H. LASCELLES, President
WALTER P. COOKE, VicePresident
HENRY J. AUER, VicePresident
MERLE H DENISON, Cashier
EUGENE L. REED, Asst. Cashier
ABBOTT H. SEELY, Asst. Cashier
HENRY J. BEITZ, Asst. Cashier
is the will, the determination?and
the needful credit.
Russia needs several billions for i
i her rehabilitation. No other nation ;
than the United States is now in a ?
position to supply this. England!
will have enough to do with the re- j
organization and reestablishment of |
lier own trade. France will be fully j
! occupied with the reconstruction of j
I her own devasted territory and the |
repatriation of her industries. The
United States now is the richest
nation on the globe. Before
it is the opportunity to use its vast
wealth, its organizing genius, its
great factories for the reorganiza?
tion and modernizing of the greatest,
empire in Europe. There can be
no business depression or after-war
stagnation in this country if our
manufacturers, bankers and bus?
iness men, cooperating with the gov?
ernment, combine to undertake this
War's End Leaves
All Europe Short
Of Raw Materials
U. S. Should Extend Finan?
cial Aid to Germany,
Some Bankers Believe
Representative bankers and indus?
trial leaders aro confident that unprec?
edented prosperity can be attained in
the coming years, but warn that the
days of readjustment to a peace basis
are fraught with grave pitfalls and I
dangers. Their attitude on the eco-1
nomic aspects of the new world situa- |
tion created by the signing of the j
armistice and the political debacle in
Germany was reflected yesterday in
statements to The Tribune.
Farreaching changos in interna?
tional relations were foreshadowed.
In certain influential banking quarters
the view was expressed that eventually
| the United States will be called upon
I to extend credit to the nations that
; made up the disintegrated alliance of
what was the Central Powers. George
E. Koberts, assistant to the president
of the National City Dank, crystal?
lized this sentiment by saying: "The
i peace settlement should be a just one
j and should provide for complete rep
1 tration. Rut after that I think the war
| in all its phases should end. The
' German people must have a chance
! and a "hope for development and pros
| perity in th? future. Unless wo help
| them with raw materials and credit
? facilities they will be unable to pay
I the required indemnity to France and
Bankers who hold this view empha
! sized the repugnance that would be
? felt in extending a helping hand to
I our former enemies, but pointed out
j that it would be unwise and inhuman
j to build a wall around Germany and
i starve her people by withholding food
and raw materials.
It was stressed that many prelim?
inary assurances of good faith must be
given before American aid can be given.
In touching on this point, William A.
Simonson, an executive manger of the
National City Bank, said: "Credit will
in time have to be extended to Ger-i
many. Just how I do not yet know."
The head of anolher large financial
institution developed this same tangent
of reasoning and argued that Amreican
'bankers and investors and not the gov?
ernment should be charged with the ob?
ligation of financing the European na?
tions in their purchases here. Others
who favored giving credit to a demo?
cratic Germany would not authorize the
use of their names.
i Charles IT. Sabin, president oT the
Guaranty Trust Company, said: "The
i signing of an armistice, which protects
the world from further military ag
gresion by German autocracy, opens up
a big vista for the expansion of Amer?
ican foreign trade. After having won
our victory on the battlefields of France
and Flanders, we can approach the fut?
ure with confidence in our ability to
i win in the more peaceful fields of trade
John E. Rovenski, vice-president of
the National Bank of Commerce, said*.
"We are now face to face with recon
?utction, a period that will be fraught
with just as many financial dangers as
the war. But, when that time is over,
being a creditor nation, we should ex?
perience the greatest prosperity wo
have ever had."
Help for World
Frank A. Vanderlip, president of the
National City Bank, said: "Wo are now
confronted with even more s<.Tious
. problems than wo faced in the war.
j America will tako the came altruistic
i and essential part in reconstructing a
| wrecked world that she took in the
war. Germany should rejoice as much
as the rest of the world, because she
now has a sounder future than she
I could have had based on militarism."
j George W. Perkins, director of the
! International Harvester Company, the
United States Steel Corporation and
other 1 arge industrial institutions,
"I thing we Americans will make a
great mistake if wc look upon the
breakdown in Germany's military af?
fairs as likely to affect the high in?
telligence of her business men and her
industrial workers generally in the
matter of modern equipment for carry?
ing on the industrial work of not only
Germany, but the world. When this
war broke out, there was as much dif
I ference between Germany's industrial
methods and ours as there is between
day and night. She was a quarter of a
century ahead of us in her intelli?
gence and broad comprehension of
modern needs in business. She had
equipped herself magnificently with
great cooperative industrial units. Ir
place of passing Sherman laws and re.
strictive legislation as to the size o?
business units, she let them grow at
large as they would in their inter
state and international magnitude, bul
saw to it that they were administerec
so as not to benefit the few, but so as tc
The Mechanics and Metals National Bank
OF THE CITY OF NEW YORK
2 0 NASSAU STREET
CONDENSED REPORT OF CONDITION, NOVEMBER 1.191b
Loans and Discounts.$125,555,935.14
Customers' Liability Under
Acceptances . 8,750,840.32
U. S. Bonds to Secure Circu?
lation . 3,800,000.00
U. S. Bonds and Certificates
of Indebtedness. ; 18,811,650.00
Bonds, Securities, etc. 11,029,058.43
Banking House and Real Es?
Cash and Due From Banks. . 84.461.410.94
Capital Stock.$ 6,000,000.00!
Undivided P .fits. 5,137,695.98
Unearned Discount. 533,944.94
Reserved for Taxes. 330,091.17
National Bank Notes Out?
standing . 3,764,800.00
Time Acceptances (Foreign
Dept.) . 9,014,647.86
Bills Payable Federal Reserve
Bank Secured by U. S. Cer?
tificates of Indebtedness.. . 5,000,000.00
U.S.Gov't.. 10.942,565.00 221,027,714.88
GATES W. Mcl.ARRAH. President
JOHN MilltOH WALTER F. ALBERT/SEN
FRANK O. ?OK HARRY H. rOM)
SAMUEL S. CAMPBELL
ALEXANDER F. BRYAN, Auditor
JOSEPH S. HOUSE, Cashier
JOHN ROBINSON ARTHUR M. AIREN
ERNEST W. OAVENPORT WILLIAM E LAKE
NORTH McLEAN, MKr?
JAMES M. HECK
WILLIAM E. COREY
W. R. CRAIO
WM. E S. GRISWOM?
HENRY O. HAVEMEY ER
H. H. HEWrTT
I . F. LOREE
V. EVERIT M ACT
T. FRANK MANTILLE
I. ?Ir ( . SULLIVAN
?.ATES W. MrGARRAII
>. T. MORGAN
WILLIAM A. FAINE
CHARLES M. PRATT
ROBERT C. PRUTN
SAMUEL F. PRTOR
FERDINAND W. ROEBLTNG, JR.
HEXRT H. ROGERS
JOHN D. RYAN
?.EORGE R. SHELDON
Plan and Act for the
Victories of Peace
WITH the end of military struggle an accomplished
fact, a new struggle looms before the Nation.
To the problem of economic and commercial reconstruc?
tion the business men of America must address themselves
with the same earnestness and vigor which they gave
to our war program.
The thoroughness and promptness with which we apply
ourselves now to foreign trade problems will, in great
measure, determine our business future. Foreign coun?
tries have not failed to lay their plans for that commer?
cial competition which must inevitably follow the cessa?
tion of hostilities.
This Company Has already published, in a series of
pamphlets, the results of a comprehensive study of the
preparations which have been and are being made bv
other countries. These papers have now been collected
into a booklet of 164 pages, which will be available for
free distribution within a few days. We shall be glad
to receive and place on file your request for a copv of
The Guaranty Trust Company of New York, through its
Foreign Department and Foreign Trade Bureau, is pre?
pared to render a comprehensive service to manufacturers
and merchants in the handling and extension of their
international trade, and in assisting them in entering the
Your inquiries as to how we can serve you will be
Guaranty Trust Company of New York
FIFTH AVE. OFFICE PARIS OFFICE
Fifth Are. A 43rd St. LONDON OFFICES Rue de. Italien.. 1 & 3
MADISON AVE. OFFICE f^^JoTrt,^. ?OURS ?"ICE
Madison Ave. & bOth St. Rue Etienne Pailu, 7
Capital and Surplus $50,000,000 Resources over $600,000,000
benefit the many. There was no more
striking difference than this existing
between Germany and this country
when the war broke out.
"Now, the German people know full
weil what these benefits were to her
i and what the handicaps were to us, and
I they can be depended upon to reniem
! ber that part of the past. It behooves
us to learn and profit by what Germany
was doing, industrially sneaking, .when
this war broke out. for if we go back
to our old competitive and cutthroat
methods, and she goes back to her old
cooperative methods, it will be but a
short time until wc will be worsted by
her in the trade of the world."
In analyzing the effect of the present
Socialist leadership in Germuny on her
place in the market for raw material,
Arthur Richmond Marsh, editor of
"The Economic World" and a member
of the New York Cotton Exchange,
| "We cannot have Germany delivered
over to the Bolsheviki. The clean-up
process in the crumbling empire may
very likely mean the occupation?not
for oppression, but in h friendly way
?of Germany by Entente and Ameri?
can troops for a number of years. The.
ordered democracies of the world must
police the broken down autocracies un?
til the ordered democratic elements can
get hold of things.
"if the self-directing democracies,
the United States, France, Great Brit?
ain and Italy, see their duty, they will
police the nations In ferment and will
forthwith provide them with ?he raw
materials they need for their own use.
They never can become ordered until
they get the economic processes going; !
neither can they pay their indemnities.
If in two or thre?3 months our troops '
occupy Germany, as seems to me nec?
essary, Germany will mpst certainly
need 700,000 bales of cotton before the
"Germany and her former allies are !
now totally without cotton, wool, jute !
and the other textile materials, which j
they need a3 much as food'. Germany j
has spinning wheels able to ?is?.- 1,75<>,- :
uuo bales of cotton a year and Austria
250,000. All but 500,000 bales of Ger
many's capacity consumption of cot- !
ton are needed for home use, and that, '
of course is the maximum sbe should \
get, for a whole at least. Next to Eng?
land, Germany was the best <:otton cua- !
tomer of the United States. Shipment
of the indicated amount of cotton to ;
Germany with the next few months ,
would tend to steady the price, which '
otherwise might lie expected to de
A prominent banker with intimate ?
knowledge of German affairs expressed !
the view that the fall of Kaiserism,
and even the establishment of a Social?
ist republic in Germany, would not j
mean a tri urn pit of Bolshevism. He con
siders the German people too practical j
and thrifty to plunge into such a chaos [
as yawns before them in Russia.
London Money Firm
LONDON", Nov. 11.?Money was
firm at 31/. per cent. Discount rates
were: Short and three-month bills,
;? 17-3- per cent. Gold premiums at
Lisbon were at 100. i
CENTRAL UNION TRUST CO.
of New York
80 Broadway 54 WaJl Stritt
6fh Avenus it btttt. Street
M (id It on Avenu? at 42nd Stritt
Bit. Avenu? ?t 36th Street
Capital, "iuriituh and l ntiuidfd
NATIONAL BISCUIT COMPANY
83rd ?""T'HK 6o?t of Directe?! ht? It
Psccrtorn I clited tse eichtr-thlid coese?
rKC.rc.ni.cw 4 ,jveqaiit?ilir4i?l4tt?il???l
DIVIDEND three-quarters (l%) tnarl?
the Preferred Caph?l stock of tie Coapw.pmoii
November ?0;h, 191?. to stockholders ol recotd Et M
close of business No' :mbei Uth, 1?II. Tntule; boob
will nol be closed. H. P. WELLS,Tteuoiu
War Risk Rates
Fall as Fighting End?
War risk insurance, which one ye?
ago was quoted as high as $10 ?
hundred, could be had in the opW
market ncre yesterday for 50 cents.
This charge, it was explained by under?
writers, is to cover the possiblv c!
loss by floating mines, a hazard which
still exists in the war zone area ?lost
the coast of France and Englani
Citizens National Bank
OF NEW YORK
Condensed Statement, November 1, 1918
Loans and Discounts_.."-'..$41,128,301.60
U. S. Bonds and Certificates. 6,744,300.00
Other Bonds, Securities, etc. .... 650,785.50
Due from Banks and Exchanges.$5,503,209.20
Cash and Due from Federal Reserve Bank.. 6,330,999.75 11,834,208.95
Customers' Guarantees.~. 2,689,858.67
Surplus Fund. 2,450,000.00
Reserved for Taxes.
Bills Payable to Federal Reserve Bank-*.
U. S. Government.$10,847,650.00
individuals.,. .31.863.771.37 46.262.774.9e?
?. S. Bonds Borrowed. 4,000.000.00
Letters of Credit and Acceptances..\. 2,735,018.64
Francis M. Bacon, Jr., Vice Pres't
Albion K. Chapman, Cashier.
James McAllister, Ass't C. ihler.
Clifford R. Dunham, Ass't Cashier.
Edwin S. Scbenck
Garrard Comly, Vic* President.
Jesse M. Smith, Ass't Cashier.
William M. Haines, Asst Cashirr.
Robert B. Raymond, Mgr. F'jr'gn Dept
Francis M. Bacon, Jr.
Charles L. Bernheimer
Henrv A. Caesar
Howard F. Clark
Ralph L. Cutter
Otto L. Dommerieh
Frederic W. Elliott
William S. Grav
Robert B. Hirs'eh
Danrin P. Kingsley
Walton P. Kinfrsley
Augustus F. l.ibby
William Fellowrs Morga*
Charles Allen Mean
Edwin S. Schenek