son: California, 13; Colorado, 6; Ida
ho, 4; Illinois, 29;, Indiana, 15; Mich
igan, 15; Minnesota, 12; Montana, 4;
Nebraska, 8; Nevada, 3; North Da
kota, 5; Ohio, 24; Oregon, 5; South
Dakota, 5; Utah, 4; Washington, 7;
Wisconsin, 13; Wyoming 3. Total,.
The sum of these groups would
give Wilson 353 electoral votes,
which is 87 more than the 266 nec
essary to a choice.
With such a margin, Wilson could
dispense with Michigan, Minnesota,
Wisconsin, Illinois and California and
still have 271 votes, or 5 more than
On the other hand should Wilson
carry New York, as he very likely
will, he could also dispense with In
diana, Ohio, Wyoming and Nevada.
In other words, there isr"a broad
margin of safety in, predicting Dem
The states (with their electoral
votes) which I regard as doubtful or
likely to go for Hughes are:
Connecticut, 7; Delaware, 3; Iowa,
13; Kansas, 10; Maine 6; Massachu
setts, 18; New Hampshire, 4; New
Jersey, 14; New Mexico, 3; New
York, 45; Pennsylvania, 38; Rhode
Island, 5; Vermont, 4; West Virginia,
8. Total, 178.
The west and the middle west are
more strongly for Wilson than is the
east. The peace sentiment is the
principal" reason for the difference,
indeed the peace sentiment is' the
principal factor in this election. It Is '
everywhere the approval of Wilson
because "he kept us out of war"
but the sentiment is less strong
seemingly in the east In the far west
where women vote, and in Illinois
where they vote for the first time for
president, this peace sentiment
would apparently be sufficient to de
termine the result in these localities.
Next to the peace sentiment Wil-
son's greatest strength is the labor
vote and after this comes the disaf
fected progressive vote. Then follow
Jie commercially contented vote, the
anti-hyphenated vote, the Jewish'
vote, the social worker vote, the Pol
ish and' Italian vote and the high
brow vote. -
A second reason why the west is
stronger for Wilson than the east is
to be found in the greater strength
of the progressive idea in the west.
Progressivism has flourished topper-:
fection in California, while it has lan
guished as it approached New York.
The progressive and independent
voter, confronted with Hughes as an
alternative to Wilson, takes more
kindly to Wilson than to Hughes.
Hughes is in bad political company.
The men who nominated him are the
ancient enemies of the progressive
movement and of progressive poli
cies in government, Hughes' own
record is much more to the liking of
the stand-pat influence than to forward-looking
folks. To which must
be added the fact that since his nom
ination Hughes and his political as
sociates have adopted a course cal-
culatedx uniformly to antagonize arid "
alienate the progressive vote when '
the one thing, necessary if they were
to win was to attract and absorb that
This campaign has been in its-gen-eraj
outline an almost perfect repro
duction of the Alton B. Parker cam- .
paign of 1904; that year William J.
Bryan, "having twice tried for the
presidency, stepped aside and let the .
reactiohary element of his party as;
sume the leadership. They nomi
nated a "safe and sane" candidate, ,a
judge, and went before the country
'with an appeal to "save the constitu
tion." To this appeal the voters re
sponded with the smallest vote cast
for any candidate since the civil war.
Parker's opponent, Roosevelt, swept
everything before him.
Hughes is obviously traveling the
Parker road.' Col. Roosevelt is giv
ing Hughes much the same support
that Bryan gave Parker in 1904
Roosevelt's friends do not question
the sincerity of his motives In refus-
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