Newspaper Page Text
ikjNDAY MORNING, DECEMBFR 1000
M15fcK 31 Mg2 THE QGDEN STANPARD-EXAIVUNER 7
first Grade Bonds Likely
, I to Hold Steady for
I Considerable Time
I j By BYRON SELLER,
' I fpt111 Correspondent of The J
j n (Copyright. 1922, by The
'kK' Y'1'K, Dec. 30 Th sccrc-i
of eom-n.-i - c I credited with two
'Jamrn." ,b H 1,v,1k- both of Which
lK 1 vital liai lng in the future of
'iteciirl' or. 'if-.: find on tin bu.l
K, outlook Fin-i ,va the rxpres
K 0( opinion that tho tlmo will
Rjrtlv h ut hand when tho fnorm-
JjCgt'otk "( re''' held In this country
I Bi t c P I to be diminished by ex-
' E43. Tin- ether na th statenirnt
Hf statistics covering Import for
Hnber and November will show an
Hs. nrl.--, tin- new Ur-
iVtO the first of these matters, It I
u ons - cono-1
Kjts that our surplus of gold con-1
pBotPit fl ' N ' mmaee In Its thrf-at!
KifiAU'-' A good deal of the rite
H gp- live securities rlurlng 1he
iEjt is ascribed by these cenn-'
,'j Kjjjt'-. to Oi'i abundant n.oney supply.
IK co and t'-tu!-.-. ll'.u-.er'a it. -(lb -J
Kg is verified, that danger will be
Kg0A.--.l but tl,.- I'rr.Ovai nil: lake1
Kjth ' " for 1 n'" ad-
Knce In the price 01 both securities
ggUto the second matter, the belief
pBf been freely expressed that uno.r
;K pow turlfi. foreign trade could
Ifcurs In tne position to know the
Epets and Iheorn-- nr" of no Irnport
mut vrhen ih--.- '-nflb- with fact?.
I ' PRICKS HOLD STEADY
How far peculators and investors'
L( consciously influenced by consid
Kllon3 of this kind is uncertain, It
E k (ac : h- ' h.-re ha-i
mm no m : rp-- advance In
WK price of high grade securities
,E week Evn 1 berfy bonds which
IITit been ' ' ri --ins for a
BJiSildcrablo period wavered on some
Hferi of the week The same was true
Cl jrciifj: -f-'-t of all se-
Bsrttias, prices of which are rcspon
Kt only nr. :.--.;-' nd funda-
.Vgjital con Investors simply
filing to pay the market quotations
Kgt they did 'not i u-h to bid i.p the
financial institutions which arc al
Hftlarge buyers of high grade c
ea supplied their needs only
ijjjjBl price and quality met their
U of reaaonablen.-s; r-rhap th'
jjEatlon could be best described by
Kytsg that r'- ! ri i t.
fcillt7 In the market for prime
f V. S. AII FOR n'Rol'K
B There Is. of course, anoihcr import
Uut factor affecting even the p.i
IKm Itucttlon. A long period of good
Al4i rjnults in the accumulation of
iisSnfji3 ii t
HtHtrs. howe-. er, a v ry slow one
rH long before It begins to operate
Hhlnvtstme.-j' - itself In the
HtOBlatlre. marl i
"This brings us t . . r unsldcratlon of
Kgenerai business outlook. Here
7.W lUua dl!'.'- : H
..P that p:
iSMnesean problem Is still unsolved
le b:'t tb.'t r.'n bo said )- that thS
3Birt Amerl Id titke js under
Asftant discussion. In and out of con-
8MMtien lb to ! i - i .-it the i on-
bce Of the premiers next
Mk. N'.j ' .' 1 1 - i; ii-.j concerned
.nrthe faces the Turks made at Lau
jMane ...: incement of
SmW dlsDVch ' L-tritish fleet to
Dard i ) iv. d by tie
Blrkets w:th indlff.-rence. it will
llHt another story when any real
ti Is made toward the Improve.
! the European economic con-,
whether that Improvement is
rlth or without the aid of the J
(ON BREAKING COSTLY
om the railroads bIIII have
oubles Chairman Reed of the
public- utilities commission
ns that the Atchison spends
:h money for maintenance, and
Johnson of California wants
Is prohibited from declaring
Is unless they have spent (en
money for maintenance al
lt Is equipment on which Mr
i lajs the stress. It is cer
lard to plaf everybody,
while, earnings for November
ly made a better showing than
f the mon h before ae)d freight
s are tho heaviest on record
i time of year. Probably asblo
he purely political attacks on
lroads. their most serious dlf
ls In their Inability or unwili
to compose theii difference
their emplo;. -1bHP
f course, doea not apply to
w Jm9 taib.'.i.;
J MP0 1 rn I . ; I..
Bf unions. As to the right or
jgeWn: r : uplii
l mfo expi effect on earn-
i 8l,J u' 1 11 1 1 "' K '''' 1 1 1 K
We from the foreign Bituatlon
tlit tro-ji,i, ,,i tho railroads all
H Jetlona are ntlll foi Industrial ac
$rWh and reaavnablo proflta for well
ftilBjMta ladUHtiit.-t The automobile
l'JOka for war. 1 t.. a gTeat season
tTWmr. u a preiiMii m a j torn o-
how, prlees ..f motor shocks havw
rfniust be admitted that income
r'PjBwnts and balance sheets in
F, ifM - inco. Talk
! tbo Automobile industry haing
tllu saturation j)Olnt Is not
?dB? VeT often Just now. Steel
CTR'' ls Phenomenally ood. There
'jUfJMbtcn a further rite in commodity
'im!?' PartleuUriy of copper. Hugar
'i1K Wj0k Ip.tird to a prosperous
4r-'! even ''-I ' "
liP. 4r,: 111 ' v H in. I It And .
"m'fKa . ,,n:,l.j. -. ,j . ;inie Is no r'-'1"
- ,!W,.to bo anything but eonserv ative-
VlMFK VOKK, u. . . 3e l-'orelgn x-
jKt,,1'"ir Quotations w
f?Bret Britain Demand 63; ca
iBL4G3'4. CO .lay bills on banks
sfP"". Demand 7 33, cables T-M:-Demand
15.09, cables 6.09 Va
Tlura: Demand 6.72; cables
S,3Hfrma-n': Remand .0139; cables
jjiK'B1; R'nand 39 57; cables
4&t'jLeHJ'a Demand 18 .8?.
1 J&K n : demand 2 7.02.
Wsm ark Demand 20.60
gr'and i lemand l 1 "
VjBkf Demand 1.18.
tfKlan,,: Demand i 0 & 6.
KCr'-Slovakta Demand 3.10
y.meUQ0: ljornan.l 37.75.
tAs reported by J- A. Hogle A Co.)
. RANK STOCKS
. I Bid 1 A iiked.
W-c::; f :
Contj Natl Bank n;o 00
?sxtrTlc?pp,r x52:22 :::::::
do. ? of 0,rdcn . ko.oo
.f ,nRS of ST. 190.00 196 00
Utah State National loo.oo 108. 00 1
WnluaVT,& Trust 108.00 I
walker Bro. Bank. . 230 00 236 .00
ljgjgav- & Tr ...1 206.001 210.00 j
Amal Sugar com ...I 840i 60
do b3 PM 00 00 9t .o.j
ron agon 43 . 00 47.00
Home Fire Ins 316.001 823.00
Independent Coal .59 .J2
Morgan Can 9o pfd.. 102 . 50 IO4.001
Mt States TAT 104.00i 106. O0
'copies Sug pfd-com! 2.2r 2.50
scnramm-John 8s pfdi 103 001 106 00 1
Standard Coal I 67!
C S. Fuel Tr pfd . . ' 8S'(' g -
Utah-Idaho Sugar 3 10' s 2i
Utah Fire Clay E6.00 ...
,Vrl ,rr 4 Lt lst Pfd I 95.001 97.00'
Walker Bros. D. Gdsf 200 00
C M 1 ! 111. 00) 113.00
Hrtn Drnjf Dlst 6s S2i 95.001 97. zS
' tab Oil Refg 1 23.00i 2& 00
Mutual Creamery ... 1 8.P0 7 10
Utah-Idaho Sug pfd. , 8.76 3.00
S L Stock Ex es 19291 88.001 90 00 1
Studrd Coal 6s 1 1)28( , 98.00
Ut Pr & Lt 1st 6s M4 92.001 94.00'
L.t & Pr 4g 1930. . . 86.001 90 00
Ut-Ida Sugar 7a 3 01 97 00 98.60
NEW YORK STOCKS.
Allied Chemical & Dye 79i
American Beet Sugar
American Can 73;.f
American Car A Foundry .. 18SB
American Hide & Leather pfd 6".
American International Corp. 26 V6
American Locomotive 127 44
American Smelting & Refg. . r..;"
American Sugar 797g
American Sumatra Tobacco .. . 81
American T A T 123
American Tobacco 154
American Woolen 95 Vj
Anaconda Copper r.o
Atchison 102 Vi
Atl Gulf &- W Indies 21 M
Baldwin Locomotive 139
Baltimore & Ohio 42
Bethlehem Steel B 62 Va
Canadian I'aclfic 144
Central Leather 32
Chandler Motors 67
Chesapeake & Ohio 7 1 U
Chicago Mil A- St Paul 23 4
Chicago R I & Pac 32 U
Chlno Copper 26 x,w
Colorado Fuel & Iron 27
Corn Products 13.,:s
Crucible Steel 70
Famous Players-Laaky 91 Vd
General Asphalt 4 3a
General filectrlc . . .182 'i
General Motors HV
Goodrich Co. . 36
c;roat Northern pfd 74
Illinois Central . 113
Inspiration Copper 661-..
International Harvester 881)
Int Mr Marine pfd 43
International Taper .'Jlj
Invincible Oil 14
Kelly-Springfield Tire 49
Knnecott Copper 36 1
Louisville & Nashville 13Mb
Mexican Petroleum 280B
! Miami Copper 27 Jf
Middle States OH 11
XHdvale Stoel 28
Missouri Pacific 16
New York Central 94 a
N Y N H Hartford 21 Vi
Norfolk A Western
Northern Pacific 74
I Oklahoma Prod & Ret 1 ai
Pacific Oil 46
Pan American Petroleum 91
. Peoplo's Gas 9 3
1 Pure OH A 29
Ray Consolidated Copper 141,-
I Rep Iron & Steel 48
! Royal Dutch N Y 52
; Sears Roebuck 86
' Sinclair Con Oh 35
South" rn Pacific 89 t,
'standard Oil of N J .- !
1 Btudebaker Corporation 117
I Tennessee Copper 10 S
I Texas Co J2
I Texaa & Pacific 0
1 Tobacco Products 8
'Transcontinental Oil 3 ,
; Union Pacific W
United Retail tores 7b
U S Ind Alcohol CS
: L'nlted States Rubber SOVa
United States Steel 108
Utah Copper . . . C5
Westinghouse Electric '
I Willys Overland . . . . ;cl6'
Amorican Zinc. Lead and Sm. .is;.jb
I Butte and Superior 31
,Shattuck Arizona . -5
I Great Northern Ore 80
lAmn Linseed OH
I Consolidated Gas 1'
CAN W 80
Cattle 28 1
Caxtle: Receipts 97, rteady; top
trts choice prims iteera M-f
? 6'S rood teer, l.Q0 6 B fair
Chiice heifers $4.26 4.50:
Sir to good co SI "0 1:
feeder cows none, veal calves nomr
How Receipts 284; 15c hlhcr,
. 5ss IB- fat hoge. 190 to 2 20 pounds
SPsstfl hi heavy hoga J6 .R07.1B;
0qhee.v Receipts 42J. steady; choice
lanhbrP'U.00l2.J0; fat wfttgj
ewes 3. 004.00-
CHICAGO Er TI Ri s
nHigb" Low Close
DC 1 22 1.88 l-20
1:11 I lav,4 1.1m 1 1
Corn 724 .75V1
DCC 7lt 72 U -70 -72
0at" 4? 424 -411 -42
Lard 7 10.75 10. "T
& 8:8 8:8
iilbs t 10.67
NEW VORIC, Dec igfgg"g
bondu closed --z flrst ,,3
S. treasury 4 i "
(United Slates Department of Asri
oiiltnre) 4 1
OMAILV, Neb. Dec. 80. Hogs: Be-
eetptj 8600; mostly &c higher; bulk
$7.107.40; bulk butchers mostly !
I8.00Q 8.10. top $8.16.
Cattle: Receipts 200. Compared
with week ago: Steers 2Gtfj50c low
er; week's top SlO.ir. ; bulk $7.00 6
00; she stock steady to J60 higher,
bulk rowa and heifers $4. 00 6 76:!
canncrs and cutters steady; bulk ?3 50
15 3.60; veals 50cg$100 higher, top
$10 60, bulls, Mockers and feedr
steady to strong, bolognas $2.76 &
3.60, top feeders $7 90.
Sheep. Receipts none Compared
with week ago Lambs steady to 26c
lower; yearlings steady: sheep 60 ft
76c higher: feeders mostly 25c high
er KANSAS CITY, Mo. Dec. SO. Cat
tle: Receipts 12C; for week- Reef
steers mostly 26c lower. some off
more: top $10 00; bulk $7.0008.60;
fat she stock steady to 15c higher,
caners and cutters lOCMf.c higher.
bulls big quarter higher; calves ave-.i
raging GOc higher; stock calves and
fctock cows and heifers steady to I
Hogs: Receipts 4000. mostly 10c
higher, packers top $8.40; shipper
top $8.50, bulk 150 to 280 pound avi -rages
$8.8008.85; packing sows stca-!
dy mostly $7 50.
Sheep: Receipts 600; for week'
Killing classes strong to 2ne higher: ,
Colorado lambs $1 5 00. bulk fed lots
$14.25014.86; shorn $12.80018.10;
light ewes $7.50; wethers $8.60.
CHICAGO. Dec. 30 Hogs: Re-1
rolpts 8000; market 10 to 16c higher;
light and weight up most, bulk 2i.r.
to 30 pound butchers $8.40, bulk
160 to 210 pound averages $8 55 j
8.55; top $8 65. bulk packing sowaj
$7 50 7.76; desirable pigs montly
$7.75ir 8 00; estimated hoMover 8000:
heavy hogs $8.26(&8.40. medium
$8.350)3 UO, light $8.50 8.65; Ugh',
light $6.3508.66; packing sows
smooth $7.00a8 00; parking sows
rougli $7.00i8'7.C5, killing pigs $7.50
Cattle Receipts 500; compared
with week ago, beet Steers largely 50e
to $1.0o lower, medium and good
grades showing most decline; extreme
top matured steers $11 90 yearlings
scarce, best young steers 110 50. beef
ov8 and heifers largely 60c higher;
hulls 25 to 60e higher; veal calves
$1.00 to 1.5o up, etockers and feed-!
ers steady to 25o lower; plainly bred
light kind reflecting decline; week's;
;bulk prices follow: Beef steers $7.76
1 9 26; stockcrs and feeders $6.1
6.75; butcher she stock $4.404b6.60;
k-anners and cuttters $3.003.50.
'veal calves $10 00911.00.
I Sheep. Receipts 2n0o. market com
pared with week ago, fat wooled
lambs weak to 15c lower, heavy kind
off more; bandy shorn offerlngo
largely steady; extreme top wooled
lambs $15 00 to city butchers; pack
er top $15 50; closing top wooled
lambs $15.30 to nhlppcrs; $15 60 to
packers: shorn lambs numerous; bulk
1 $12. 75& 13.15; fed yearlings closing
(unevenly lower; bc.-t yearlings $18.00;
fat sheep largely 25 to 7So higher:
I best aged wethers $9.36, fed ewes up-
Iward to $8 68; feeding lambs scarce.
stead ; mostly $13.75 S 14. 50. few lots
ST. JOSEPH. Mo. Dec. 30. Hogs
Receipts 7.5O0; mostly 10 to liio
higher to shippers and packers; pack
er top $8.86; shipper top. $8.30; pack
ing sows mostly steady. $7.35(0 7.50,
bulk of sales for tho day $8.108.86.
Cattle Receipts 100. Compared
j with week ;go; beef steers and yearl
ong weak to 1091 16c lower; beef cows
, around 25c higher; t anners and cut
' ters steady to strong, hulls steady;
. calves $1 higher, stockers and feed
iis steady to weak; week's bulk
prices beof steers ami yearling! ?6 00
pt.00. beef cows $4 35 5.75; odd
I head up to $6.50; cannern and cut
ters $2.50(jjr3.75; buli.s $3.2504.6O:
;il calves $8.609.6O; stockers and
feeders. $: M H . ' n
I Sheep ICe. eipts f,0 . ompared
I with week ago. Pat lambs 15 to 25c
lower; fat sheep steady to 15c lowi
1 er; week s bulk prices western wool
ed lambs Hi 2.ri 14 y, natives $14 00
a 14.26, fed shorn lambs $12,760
13.25; yearlings $11.60 0 12.00; fat
1 ewes $C.OOi&7.60, feeding $14.OO0
I 14.15. ;
CHICAGO. Dec. 30. Wheat values
fluctuated rapidly here today during
tho early dealings after an unset
tled opening. Tho Liverpool wheat
I market lolled to reflect the sharp
break in prices on this side of tho
1 Atlantic Friday and values were soon
broadened TMrember lifting the most
erratic touching $1.23 on a break
and rallying uter to $1.27. So rapid
1 were the fluctuations thnt values var
ied C between trades. There was
I some scattered liquidation In evidence
In the Ma delivery with an easing
ou 111 prices nii'-t ins vymuifi
developments had little or no effect
arly. some trailers who had sold out
earlier In the week being In a quan
dary, believing there had been break
enough but not Inclined to reinstate
long lines, and were awaiting fur. her
developments. The opening. which
aried from c decline to P',c ad
vance with May at $1 22 lo $1.22'
land July $112i to $1 12, was fol
j lowed by a further setback all around
Subsequently, the marki I quieted
'down somewhat with local shorts
more Inclined to take profits and even
up for over the year end. A fair rally
toward the finish resulted from cov
ering by chorto and values rose to
I above Friday's finish. The close win
unsettled, with values changing from
14c decline to 1 advance, with May
'$1.22 to $122 and July $1.13
Corn ;md oats were unsettled In line
with tho action In wheat, there being
considerable evening up under way
for over the year end. After opening
l,', lower to c higher, with May
7li to 71 Sc. lh corn market un
derwent slight further losses all
Later a reaction set In because of
freo buying of May .orn and values
rove to WH above Friday's close. Tho
flniah was stroin,-. with values show
ing a net goin of '4 to lc, with May
73 Vi to 72 Vic
Oats started unchanged to 14 c
down. May 44o to 44C, and later
declined a little more.
Provisions wore unchanged to 2o
off at tho start.
CHICAGO, Dec. 30. Wheat No. 2
Corn No I mixed 78V4&74e; No. 2
yellow 74)4 O 76 tie.
Oats No. I white 44VC No 2 white
41 Vi 43o
Rye No. 2 89V4c.
Timothy seed $6 e0t6 SO.
Clover seed $16.00020.25
OMAHA, Neb . Dec. 30 Wheat No.
2 hard ?l 12 01.15; No. 2 mixed
Corn No. 2 white 65 Vic; No 1 OliXOd
66 it t6 C
Mats No 2 while 1214c No I WhUe
i move higher
AS YEAR ENDS, j
NEW YORK. Dec. 30 Virtually
nil groups of stocks moved to hlgh( r
levels In today's brief session of the'
mniket the last of the year Wide
spread predictions of business pros-1
perlty during the coming year and
Secretary Hughes' suggestion of an In- ,
ternatlonal conference of financiers to
Kettle tho reparations problem had aj
cheerful effect on sentiment, while an
advance ,ln Pennsylvania crude oil
prices was reflected In a brisk' demand
tor the oil shares. Some of the other
strong spots were Standard Oil of
California, Houston Oil, 'hlf-ago At
Northwestern, Continental Can,
Bosch Magneto. Stromberg r'nrhure-'
tor and DuPont, all up 2 to 4 points '
New peak prices for the year were
established by Endlcott-.Tohnson. No. I
American and Stewart-Warner 1
Speedometer, thtj gulns ranging from'
1 Vi to 4 points The closing wasi
Sales approximated 600,000 shares. I
(As reported by J. A. Hoglo A Co.)
I BlY T Asked.
Alta Con. ... I 00V( 02
Albion Con. .00 .02
Am. Metals .COVfcl 02
Alta Tunnel I 02V4I .08
Bullion I .00! .02
Big Hill I .01 Vis .03
Big Cot. Coal 02 .03
Bay State 1 00
Black Metal I .00l
Bingham Galena . . , .01: .01
'ent. Eureka ;..00r4' 02
Columbus Rexall ...j .21 .22
Colorado Con 04 I .04
Crown Point 02
Cardiff 2S 1 .32
Cott King 1 .01
Daly 1.10 I 1 . 25
Dragon 03 1 .08
Emma Silver I .02 i .02
Emerald I .03 .06
Eureka Mines .05 I .06
E. Crown Pt .00 .01
East Tintlc Coal ...I .00 .00
East Tlntlc Con . ... .03 .06
Eureka Lily 1 04 .06
Eureka Bullion , . .' .'i2'2 04
Hamburg Mines .... 01 ! .02
I Howell I .00; .01
'Iron Blossom I .30 .38
Iron Kintf 1 .14; .16
Keyston I .36 .40
Kennebec .02 02
Lehi Tlntlc .01) .02
I Leonora -00 .01
Chief Con ... I 4.75 5 12
Lvnn Big Six .06 j .10
Mammoth I .40 .80
May Day .00 .01
Moaon Valley ... .! 1.40 1.80
Mkhlgan-lUah .... .11 12
Ne wQulncy j .01 .02
No. Standard .01 .01'
Opohongo J .00 .00
Ohio Copper I .50 , .55
Plutus .51 .54
Prince Con ) .09; .e9
Ploche Bristol .. .. .00 .01
iPrlc Mining .01 I .04
I Provo I .02 .04
Rico Well I .03 I .11
Syndicate .00 D0ft
Silver King Coal. ...I 2 .40 2 7
Silver King Con. ...I .14 .20
Stoux Mines ... ... .OlVil .02
Tar Baby ,00i .03
Tlntlc Central I .00 .01
'Hntlc Standard 2.90 I 3.00
Uncle Sam .01! 02
Utah Con I .00, 01
Union Chief I j .04
1 Victor Con (...,.... .05
I Victor Mining ... ...f. ... .06
I West Toledo I .09l .09
Walker Mining ... I 3.66 I 3.75
Woodlawn I -04i .05
'Yanki Con I .OOVil
Park City M. & S. . . .) 3.35 3 .50
Park-Utah 8.60 4.50
December 30, 1922.
Alta Tunnel. 1 000 at 3c.
Columbus Rexall. 500 at 21c, 1500
E;ust Tlntlc Coal.. 1000 at c.
Iron Blossom. 500 at 33c.
Kennebec. '3000 at 3c.
Mlchlgan-L'tah. 1500 at He.
New Qulncy, 2000 at 8c! 1000 at
Prince Con., 500 a 9c.
Silver King Con-, 700 at 15c; 300
West Toledo. 8600 at 10c; 8400 at
9c; 6500 at 9c; 500 at 9Vjc; 60O at
9 S 10c, 4000 at 9?c. 1000 at 9
Zuma. 2000 at 6c.
CHICAGM. Dec 3 0. Potatoes stea
dy; receipts' 43 cars, total United
States shipments 472; Wisconsin
sacked and bulk round whltea 80 V 90c
cwL; Mlnnosota sacked and hulk
round writes 760 85c cwt.; Idaho
sacked russets No 1 branded $1-40
cwt. unbranded and frozon $1 00 0
; 1.10 cwt.; Michigan bulk round whlte
partly graded 800 86c cwt
K INK STATEMENT.
NEW YORK Dec. 30. Tho actual
condition of clearing bouso banks and
trust companies for the week (flvo
day) ohows that they hold $24,943.
' ISO In excess of legal requirements.
I This Is an Increase of $6,054,080.
BUTTER AND EGGS.
CHICAQei. Dec. 30. Butter. un
changed. Eggs, unchanged Recolpts 1.989
cases Poultry alive, higher. Fowls
16''a23c; springs 19c. roosters. 13c;
turkeys, 25c; geese. 16c.
MINNEAPOLIS. Minn.. Dec. SO.
MTW YORK SCGMt
NEW YORK, Dec 80. No sugar
quotations, market closed.
SometblriK new In injunctions:
Corunna Mlch.) business men aro
so proud of the efficiency of their
mayor, Forrest B. Perry, that
they're going to seek an injunc
tion to make him run again, H
-eU $50 a esx
RISS AND SECURITIES IN 1923, BY BABSM I
PRICES, WAGES AND SALES FOR COMING YEAR DISCUSSED; j
ISTOCKS AND BONDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE HIGHER
I I tttt) ' 190S 1890 1695 1900 jBCSt
I 1 11 111 1 ' 1 U 'J 1 I
LONG SWING BOND CYCLE j 1 I
uf V Present Bono Market - I
ljjgLgg - . ... . ;ca4ssejj
I WELLESLEY HILLS. Mass.. Dec.
30. "What's going to happen in
That question is uppermost In the
minds of l.OOO.nuu American business
men and In v (tors wlio are facing the
problem of making plans for the new
Slgn3 are not clear antl the usual
barometers seem to contradict one
In the face of this general con
fusion we had best fall back on the
factj and figures. After a thorough
study of tho fundamental conditions
that govern our market. Roger W.
Babson today Issued a statement
which clears the air and furnishes a
basis of facts for your plans.
"We are now at a point in the busi
ness cycle," says Mr Babson. "whore
you can get almost as man; different
opinions as there arc business men. I
Some are very, bullish for tho coming
year, and others cannot seo much
hope for business. The reason for
such a situation Is that wo are at i
present neither at tho top of a boom
nor at tho depth of a depression. If
we were at either of these extremes
there would bo no question of what
the next move would he. Aa It Is, we
are about half way between them.
FAST GROWTH RECALLED.
"During the past year l'nlted States
business has steadily advanced until
, the average for the whole country Is
what we usually call normal" busi
ness. Having advanced thus far. shall
wo Immediately continue Into a great
prosperity period or r.ball we go into
another period or asprossion ana poor
business as some predict?
"If you will only remember the fl.oi
years preceding 1021 and recall what
an enormous orgy of extension exist-(
ed, you can see for yourself that It
will take some time to get a proper
foundation for really good business.
We danced during those years, and
BOW we must 'pay the fiddler his
complete bill Business has really j
been like a convalescing patient.
Everything will go well with the pa
tient If he does not try to get out I
of bed too soon. If he tries to overdo
he will have a relapse. Wo now havo !
passed the most painful part of the!
readjustment. The crisis Is over, hut I
a process of cost reduction and re
balancing Is necessary."
PRICE SPREAD IS WIDE.
"Today a wide disparity exists be
tween prlcea of different commodities,
; and particularly the spread between
i producers' and consumers' goods. This
jis a brake on trade, one-half of the i
. people cannot earn enough to buy j
; the goods that tho other half has to
I soil. There are one hundred and 3lx
! million people In tho United Stntes
and 60 per cent of them get their
living from producing or distributing
raw materials It has thus fur been
impossible to reduce the prices of fin
i.nhed consumers' good to meet the cutj
' on these raw materials. The purchas
ing power of these people la out of
Its natural proportion.
' It Is not entirely a matter of re
ducing wages, although labor costs
aro a large factor, nor la It entirely
a matter of Inefficient management.
1 No. the problem of high costs is not
;a problem of any one element; and
' readjustment can como In only one
way drastic competition. All this
will take further time.
"Does this mean that there will be
no opportunities in 1923 ? Not a bit;
Tluro will bo Just as many chances
i to make money as In any yoar you
ever lived. It will be possible for you
to make as much during the noxtl2
months as In any yoars of your busi
ness life, but It will not be along tho
lines which made money in 1919 and
'1920, nor in any other boom year.
The profit In 1923 will come by giving
attention to details, by stopping the
I llttlo leaks, by saving here and tboro
through new labor-saving Inventions,
and most of all, by dovlslng new and
i moro economical means of dlstrlbu.
i lng goods. This was not at all the alt- J
i uatlon during the business boom.
J Then tho man who stopped to prc I Qt
I small leaks fount himself taught by
tho momentous rlso In prices and
changes In general conditions.
( isTS STILL HIGH.
"Those days have passed They were
wild and merry while they lasted. Now
business has come back to earth. In
mu.-v iituui.it iva. uu cwnntrv urvauv"
lng capacity was created. During the
boom, overhead costs were increased
to keop up with an abnormal turn-1
over. Today tho amount of buslnes-s
has dropped back more nearly lo'
normal, but costs have not been pro-1
portlonately reduced. Higher wages, j
higher rents, moro expensive sales or-1
ganlzatlon in fact. nearly every !
Item of expense Is out of proportion
With the amount of business done.
"Instead of wild gyrations In the,
commodity murkots. tho uvorage trend
throughout the coming year should bo
more of a tddowlse. movement. Horn
commodities are high and others ar
very low, but tho majority at presn
are about 16 per cent above their
levels a year ago. A yoar from now
WS shall probably find them averag
ing: nt uhout tho same level they stani
today. In between, thero may be a
further rally from the low of 1922,
and agricultural products certainly
should do better."
EARNINGS WILL BE H1GHER.
"Earnlngs," continued Mr Babson.
"should averaKO somewhat better
than In the yer Just passed A sur
vey of 100 leading Industrial com
panies, recently made by my organla.i- I
tlon, showed that In 1919. 96 per cent1
of these companies mado a net profit,
while only 4 per cent ehowM a deficit.
In 1921. the number of rirms whloh
could show a profit was cut down to
4S per cent. Over half, or 52 per cent
of these Industrial concerns lo6tj
ioney on their year's business. 1922 I
has witnessed a change from red in
I Igur. 3 Into black Ink figures, hut the I
int oi net profits will not tie large
when the books are finally balanced.
We are just getting back onto the
right side of the ledger.
"The shortage of labor Is one of
tho worst features of the 1923 out
look. The moment that business
works up to average activity lt be
comes Impossible to get sufflel jnt 1
workers. This raises costs antl in turn'
incrsases commodity prlcos and the!
rost of living. Tho immigration law!
Is largely the cause of thin shortage.
This law r.-stricts the number of lm-'
migrants in a single year to 3 per contj
of tbe total number of respective na
tionalities already In the l'nlted Stat
Before the war we had an addition 1
of a million Immigrants a year Now'
we are receiving less than 300.000
ind at least 60 per cent of these are
women, children or other dependants.
On the other hand, I doubt If the
I repeal of this 3 per cent Immigration
law Is the proper aolutlon of the pres
ent lubor shortage
"The real solution Is not the repeal
of the present immigration law but
I rather the repeal of the contract labor
law for as long a period as the 3 per
1 ent law remains In force. This would
j make lt possible for employers to
j promise selected foreign workers em
ployment before leaving their own
I homes. Th. moment that the immi
gration law Is repealed tho contract
! labor law can again be applied.
"There should bo no great dlffl
I culty In getting ample supplies of
; bituminous coal this winter. The car
I shortage Is diminishing somewhat.
i titiv oure I'-n I'liuiiiuiuiis gun n r'
being produced. suggesting low., ri
prices. The mischief of this situation
lies In the fact that it win again U
to tho advantage of both minora and i
operators to close the mines for aj
time Tho difficulties which brought
on tho strike last year have not b-en
Mettled. Thorc Is serious danger of I
another strike In the soft coal f leld'j. ,'
"Everybody Is worrying about tho;
political situation. There is talk of'
radical legislation during the coming,
year. Mont of this is merely the echo
from campaign speeches. It may be a
noisy year. Both the conservatives
.ind tho radicals hac a eto power,
but neither Ss fetrong enough to push
through any extreme measures of Its
own. The only kind of legislation that
will really be enacted is that which
will appeal to members of both
croups. Already tho federal re -board
has Issued a ruling, admitting,
a large amount of agricultural paper
lor rediscount In the federal resorvo
banks. Th.- Muscle Shoals problem
Will probablv be settled. elthr by sale
to Henry Ford or by development on
the. part of the government Itself. The
soldier bonu. will probably b enacted;
although no agreement as to the terms
nr means cf raislr.g tie money has
yet been mode. It is Improbable that
there will bo any lncteaae In the
mount Of business taxes.
COPPI R STOCKS CHEAP.
"Th" political aspect has frightened
many stockholders, but It Is entirely I
too early to be worried The think to (
watch Is fundamental conditions. We I
aro still In a readjustment period.
This means that sooner or later wc
I lall work toward bef.er prosperity
It Is true that Industrial stocks are
much higher than a year ago and i
are certainly not the bargains that
they were. However, as I have al
ready stated, certain lines of Industry
are just getting redy to go forward
Tho Industrial market will be 'spoil;. '
but there are a great many lssu'. s
that should do b.ter In the comlog
"The rail group Is. relatively. n..t
so far advanced as the Industrials.
1 do not believe rafls should be bought
Indiscriminately, but the rail average
will follow up the general market, f
nm much more attracted to the long
haul roads than to tbe shorter lines
The motor truck is a feeder for th I
former but a competitor of the lat
ter. Copper stocks havo really not
started yVt, but the statistical posi
tion of the motal is far better than
it has heeu for a long tim? Coppers,
eeralnlv. are selling at bargain levels
MONEY RATES EASY.
"Mone conditions should continue
good There Is no question that tho
banks are In a strong position. The
federal reserve banks today have r -serves
equal to about 76 per cent of
I their note and deposit liabilities. The
reserve required Is between 35 and 40
I per cent It Is true, that when for
eign countries begin to get on their
feot. It will he necessary to send much
of this gold back. For the preont
, however, this gold represents the basis I
(on which a considerable expansion of
credit can be built. It guarantees I
I us a relatively easy money rate, until i I
I heavy gold exports are resumed. Dur- I
I ing the comlncr year, borrowers need I
have little fear of a lack of funds for
all legitimate purpose, and this also
annlles to lonir-tcrm monev. that la. L I
capital for permanent investment. j
Mortgage rates during 123 shou -l !
work lower. Today, the average rats
of real estate moi tgages througho'.;1 i
tho Cnitod States Is between uwr
cent and 7 per cent. The time is not
far awaw when this average will stand
between 5 pet cent and 6 per cent
BONDS WILL ADVANCE.
"Of course, the ease of the money
market Is distinctly favorable to Jon.'
time bonds. There Is a point In tb -business
-yel when Industry become
uo active that moruv Is absorbed by
irate,. Whin this occurs bonds aro
sold and develop a downward ten
dency. This point In the cycle has not
yet appeared. Moreover, history shows
that following the civil war bond
prices, barring temporary fluctuation,
roso for a long period of years, the 1
advance culminating about 1900. From
th Ispolnt. a descent was gradual' v
mode to a low point at the end of
the European war. Since this low
point, hby is repeating Itself, bonds
jjnvlng n m 1 a middle ground, but
.till far below tho 3.30 or 4 per cent
basic of tho 1900 period All these
actors sug. est that well select- 1
bonds, i.otb municipal and corpora
lion, are a distinct purchase.
"Bonds and money,' concluded Mr.
Babson. "are certainly sound factors
in the situation. As for business as
a whole, tli.-ro Is no doubt that it
will average better this comlDg year
than It did In 1D22. This does not
mean that there will be any boom,
but tha". there will be plenty of money
making opportunities for those who
know fjndamcntal conditions."
General business, according to the
Index of the B ibsonchart. standi at
only 2 per cent below normal. ths
same as a week ago.
i " "
4- 4 4Wf : 4- M-;M' 4K-! 'M-l- -:-4:J4MK-.:.
I Advertising ! j
Is the Sunlight
of Business !
I To all th'at is healthy ana j
vital in business, it means I
t increased strength and
growth; but advertising is
t a. fierce heat which withers
and consumes that which J
:;- is unsound. i
A business which is not
I a good business should not t
be advertised. A business
which would not benefit J
from widespread apprecia- ::
I tion of its ideals had bet- , a
I ter acquire a new set of J
I ideals. ! !
i Published by The Ogden Stajidard-Examiner In
co-operation with The American Association of
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