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Intrcacies of This Political Campaign Are a
Great Temptation to the Very Wise to
Back Their Opinions With Their Money-
Don't Do It!
THREE tickets are in the field, and
campaign betting this year will
have new turns and angles.
, political wagers, did you say,
are strlctls forbidden by law, and cha.
lenses are hurled at tnese who trans
gress the statutes?
So they are. but, all the same, in a
quiet way there will be > a ««PPj"g «
crisp bills and the stake holder will be
* Three national tickets are in the field,
and there are state tickets galore. Un
certainty hangs in the air and at e\? ry
turn there is a conundrum, bo it is tnai
the layers of odds will flourish, and the
political wiseacres will be in quest of
the illusive 100 to 1 shot. Guessing is
the forebear of betting, and this year
there will be picturesque attempts to
lorecast the future, which wi " c ° n "
tribute to the agility of dollars. Wheth
er donkey, elephant or bull moose
romes bouncing into the forefront, there
will always be the opinion with the
gilding of hope.
The chances of Taft and Wilson are
being closely calculated, and before the
"lose of November thousands of dollars
will be changing hands and many staid
and respectable citizens will be doing
strange deeds in payment of ill consid
ered wagers.
Many thousands of copies of cam
paign maps have been carefully pre
served and are "being studied with a
view to speculation. The red and the
blue states, as they are classified in ac
cordance with present conditions, are
being minimized with careful calcula
tion, and the students are endeavoring
to reach a conclusion regarding the
states of doubtful yellow.
Few wagers have been made so far
this year in comparison with other
presidential years. There is usually
considerable briskness in the July bet
ting and occasionally it begins even
before the nominations have been made.
Something like half a million dollars
was wagered in 1900 before the re
publican national convention had met
that President McKinley would suc
ceed himself. These wagers were that
McKinley would be renominated and
re-elected, and, although they seemed
to hold forth a double possibility to
those who accepted them, in reality the
renomination was a foregone conclu
sion, and the re-election, in view of
the helpless condition of the democratic
party, was practically certain.
Chaotic conditions have had a tend
ency this year to prevent definite ex
pression of sentiment and thus to delay
speculation on the result. The effect
of the third term movement upon
President Taft's chances has not yet
become sufficiently defined to set the
currents of sentiment in motion, nor
has it become clear whether the can
didacy of Governor Wilson will have
a unifying effect or the reverse in the
democratic ranks. On the republican
side it will probably not be possible
to apportion the usually republican
states which are shown in yellow in the
campaign map until after the third
term mass meeting in Chicago has been
held and the dust has settled down so
that a comprehensive view may be
taken of the political landscape. Much
will depend, too, upon the campaign
utterances of Governor Wilsen, in
which he will indicate his position on
the tariff and other leading issues of
the contest _ >_,
More than 15,000,000 votes probably
will be polled this year for the national
tickets. Governor Wilson can claim
for his own, without much danger of
dispute, 15 states to start with, while
President Taft can count on at least
13 states. Before the remaining states
can be classified a drift of sentiment
must become apparent, and the direc
tion of this important current has not
yet been disclosed.
Although the betting usually begins
in July and lasts until election day, the
July odds are by no means always the
same that rule on the eve of the cast
ing of the ballots. In 1884 James G.
Blame was a 5 to 1 favorite in July.
The odds In his favor gradually receded
as the campaign progressed until they
fell to 10 to 7, and, after all, he was
beaten by Grover Cleveland.
Much the same thing happened four
years later, when President Cleveland
was renominated in 1888. He started
in July as a 2 to 1 favorite in the bet
ting, and these odds held until election
day. But he was defeated by President
Harrison.
These two upsets seem to have in
spired caution, for when Cleveland ran
the third time the betting throughout
the campaign was even. At the close
Cleveland had a very slight advantage.
He won by a large majority.
In both the McKinley campaigns
against William J. Bryan, McKinley
was a favorite at long odds, and, in
fact, this has been true of all the re
publican candidates since 1896.
In the following table the closing
odds in each presidential contest since
1884 are shown, with the result of the
election. The odds are placed opposite
the name of the favorite, and they indi
cate the quotations offered against his
election:
Year. Candidates. Odds. Result.
1884 Cleveland
Blame 7 to 10 Lost
1888 Harrison
Cleveland 1 to 2 Lost
1892 Cleveland 9to 10 Won
Harrison
1896 McKinley Ito 4 Won
Bryan
1900 McKinley 2to 7 Won
Bryan
1904 Roosevelt Ito 5 Won
Do rlccr
1908 Taft Ito 6 Won
Bryan
In the last seven presidential elec
tions, therefore, the betting odds have
correctly indicated the result four
times and have failed to indicate it
correctly twice. In 1892 the odds did
not indicate anything until the
eleventh hour, when they inclined
slightly toward Cleveland*. In all these
elections enormous sums of money
were risked on the outcome and every
effort was made to obtain accurate in
formation.
Even Richard Croker was misled in
1900, despite his experience and his
opportunities for forming an accurate
judgment. He risked large amounts
on Bryan's election, placing his money
freely at odds of 2% to l. He bet so
heavily that a suspicion was aroused
that he was seeking by this means to
influence public opinion, but he de
clared that he had no such object in
view, being convinced that Bryan was
going to win.
It; the 1904 election there was very
heavy betting. In New York city
alone about $300,000 was wagered in
the Broadway hotels.
Large sums also were risked on the
result in ISOS. When the campaign
closed Charles Mahoney, as stake
holder, had nearly $200,000 in the Hoff
man bouse safe.
In the Hoffman house for years the
etting centered. Mahoney was
always stake holder of the wagers made
there, and in the course of his career he
probably had temporary custody of sev
eral millions of dollars. Every evening
as election day approached men with
money to wager were accustomed to
gather in the hotel lobby to discuss the
situation and wait for a chance to put
•their monej Hp. On the last night, when
the campaign was over and nothing
more could possibly happen to influence
the result, the lobby was besieged by an
excited mob, shouting, arguing and ges
ticulating. A space directly in front of
the clerk's desk was roped off, and be
hind the rope stood bookmakers and
commissioners with bundles of cash
ready to accept any wager that fulfilled
their conditions as to odds. Toward
midnight the lobby became so packed
that it was next to impossible for an
other person to squeeze into the door
way. In the tension of the highest pitch
of excitement the wagers were recorded
and the packages of greenbacks were
stowed away in the hotel safe to await
the counting of the ballots.
As a rule, the belling was all over
before election morning dawned, but
sometimes the uncertainty was so great
thai" it continued even after the polls
had closed and while the returns were
coming in. This happened in 1838, when
Augustus Van Wyck was running for
governor on the democratic ticket in
New York state. There was heavy bet
ting in that year, from $1,000,000 to
$1,500,000 being wagered in Ne;v York
city. The contest seemed so close that
the odds shifted at the last moment and
Mr. Van Wyck suddenly became the
favorite at lft to 7. He was defeated
by about 18,000 plurality.
There was even more intense excite
ment in the state campaign of 1902,
when Bird S. Coler was defeated by
Governor Odell by a margin of less
than 9.000 votes. The odds changed
from Odell to Coler after the polls had
closed, and a frantic scramble ensued
on the part of speculators with large
sums staked on Odell, who tried to
hedge their bets.
These scenes in the Hoffman house
resembled those that occur on the floor
of the stock exchange in times of
panic. The Hoffman house was looked
upon as a democratic haunt, and when
republican money seemed scarce It was
not unusual for one of the democratic
betting commissioners to cross Twenty
fourth street with a crowd at his heels
and taunt the republicans in""the Fifth
Avenue hotel by shaking a flst full of
gold certificates in their faces and dar
ing them to back their candidates.
The Fifth Avenue hotel has passed
out of existence and, at the same time,
with the closing of the betting rings
at the race track the book makers have
largely disappeared. These changes,
which have taken place since the last
presidential election, have created new
conditions. The tendency probably will
be to increase the amount of election
betting in the financial districts, where
the operation is carried on with stock
brokers acting as commissioners for
their clients just as they act for them
in the purchase and sale of securities.
The downtown betting is done chiefly
on the curb market, in Broad street,
where considerable sums are wagered
in the course of the campaign and odds
are quoted like the prices of stock.
This betting is purely speculative,
and the wagers are made not for the
purpose of adding emphasis to opinion,
but solely In the hope of profit. In
other words, they are gambling, pure
and simple. Large sums are sent to
Wall street from all parts of the coun
try to be "placed*" and the business
is carried on in a cold blooded man
ner. As the betting is generally sup
posed, however, to reflect the drift of
popular sentiment In regard to the can
didates, the possible effect of the quo
tations of odds Is not disregarded by
the managers of national campaigns.
If there -is money in the campaign
chest the investment of a few hundred
thousand dollars in wagers for the pur
pose of changing the odds is regarded
as legitimate and sometimes even neces
sary. In such cases the source of
the money Is always carefully guarded
and consequently quotations of odds are
regarded with some suspicion, espe
cially during the last week of the cam
paign.
Owing to the novel elements which
will influence the result of the present
contest, speculation is likely to follow
unusual lines, as it did in the election
of 1900. In that year the McKinley
majorities in various states furnished
a favorite subject for wagers. Even
money was offered, for example, that
he would have 75,000 plurality in Wis
consin, 30,000 in Minnesota, 45,000 in
Ohio, 20,000 in Indiana, 75,000 in Illi
nois, 8,000 in Maryland and 8,000 in
West Virginia. Many wagers were also
made on the number of electoral votes
that the candidates would have and the
number of states they would carry.
Such proposals frequently contain "jok
ers" that are not apparent at first
glance. They may sound alluring
enough until examination reveals the
flaw.
It Is often possible, by shrewdness
and strict attention to the odds, to
make a series of wagers in such a
manner as to win, no matter how the
election goes. This requires capital
and it involves taking advantage of
changes in the odds. The changes re
corded in two presidential campaigns
were as follows:
Year. July 15 Oct. 1. Nov. 1.
1896 McKinley 2 to 1 3 to 1 4 to 1
1900 McKinley 2 to 1 3 to 1 5 to 1
Suppose a speculator placed $400 on
McKinley in July at 2 to 1. He stood
to win $200 in case McKinley was
elected. If in November he had wa
gered $100 on Bryan against $400 it,
would have been impossible for him to
lose. In the event of McKlnley's elec
tion he would have won $200 and would
have had $100 left after paying his
loss on Bryan. In the event of Bryan's
election he would have won $400 and
would have lost nothing after paying
his bet on McKinley.
If he had repeated the operation four
years later he would have won $100, as
before, in the event of McKlnley's elec
tion, and he would have won $100 also
if Bryan had carried the day. x
Heavy betting is usually undertaken
for purposes of revenue only. It is
wholly different from the great major
ity of the wagers laid on elections, the
chief object of which is to back up dis
puted opinions and to give additional
zest to the contest by introducing an
element of personal interest.
In this category are the innumerable
small bets of a few dollars which are
made between friends of opposing po
litical faith. These bets are made in
every hamlet, and In the aggregate
they probably far exceed the more im
posing wagers which attract attention
because of their size. In many cities
it is customary to maintain betting
boards In places of public resort upon
which various candidates are grouped
in a dozen or more different combina
tions, and any one may try to "select
a winning group upon payment of a
small fee. If he is successful he gets i
a share in the pool.
Millions of hats are wagered on elec
tion results by those who do not care
to make money wagers. Dinners and
boxes of cigars also afford- a convenient
outlet for the speculative instinct.
But the peanut roller represents a
class of wagers that is peculiarly char
acteristic of elections. There is prac
tically no limit to the variety of the
freak bets of this character that are
made and paid. They afford an illustra
tion of the humor that enters into the
most serious affairs in America. Inge
nuity is taxed to devise ridiculous for
feits depending upon election results
That one man shall convey his op
ponent over a specified route In a
wheelbarrow is a favorite form of
wager which is often more pleasant for
the loser than for the winner.
In a recent election an undertaker
agreed to permit himself to be driven
about in his own hearse if his judg
ment should prove to be wrong. An
other man in evening clothes rode bare
back along Park row upon a horse
drawing an open carriage in which sat
his opponent and a party of friends.
Still another partisan was compelled
to ride a pig when the election went
against him.
Wagers between republicans and
democrats to ride, an elephant or a
donkey, carrying 'the banner of the
victorious party, are not uncommon.
Agreement to grind a hand organ in
public for a specific time is another
favorite wager. The privilege of car
rying an umbrella for six months Is
sometimes risked on the result of the
polling.
Domestic questions of Importance are
occasionally left to the decision of the
people by means of election wagers.
In one of the western states a father
agreed to abandon his opposition to
his daughter's suitor in case , Bryan
carried the state. A Michgan man un
dertook to support his opponent's
mother in Jaw for the remainder of her
life if he lost his bet. In Kentucky a
husband and wife of differing re
ligious faith left the religious educa
tion of their baby to be determined by
the election returns.
Not infrequently the wagers relate
to persona] appearance—the loser must
cease to shave for a certain time, or
wear his clothes for a day inside out,"
or shave one-half of his face and let
the beard grow on the other half.
It is possible to understand the
money wagers and the freak bets
which are made for the sake of the
humor that they are supposed, at least,
to exhibit, but It is more difficult to
explain the motive of the man who
wagers with himself or "makes a
vow," as the phrase goes, to do or ab
stain from doing certain things if the
result of the election fails to meet his
expectations or hopes. The most
usual form of this self-imposed pen
alty is avoidance of barbers. As
tounding growths of beard and 'hair
have been due to untoward election
results.
There is no subject about which the
average man thinks he knows more and
really knows less than the elections.
Nine men out of 10 are unable to avoid
mistaking partisanship or prejudice for
evidence of the most conclusive charac
ter. Every voter is prone to feel that
just because he is a voter he knows how
things are coming out and usually he is
positive that the candidates for whom
he voted are destined to carry the day.
Firm in this conviction, he is ready to
back his belief in some substantial
manner.
If all the offers to bet that are made
In the progress of the campaign should
be taken half the nation would be bank
rupt next Christmas.
This being the disposition of the mas
culine nature, it Is difficult to predict
what will happen in the way of election
betting when women acquire the voting
privileges. With more definite intui
tions, and therefore a higher degree of
absolute certainty, there can be no tell
ing where the speculation will stop
when they begin to engage in it. Not a
few instances are already on record In
which the "Yes" or "No" In courtship
has depended upon the success or de
feat of a favorite candidate, and this
fact may indicate what is to come in
the domain of novel hazards.
So common and universal is the cus
tom of betting on the elections that a
man from Mars upon witnessing It for
the first time would be astonished to be
informed that it is forbidden by law in
every state of the union. He might con
clude that widespread disregard for law
exists, but he would be mistaken. Al
though literally these repressive stat
utes are prohibitive of any kind of elec
tion betting. In reality they are In
tended to serve as restraints upon the
purchase of votes. They provide that in
case a voter has a bet on the result he
shall lose his vote.
Suppose there is a desire to buy votes
for one of the candidates. If bettHSg were
not prohibited, the easiest way to cor
rupt voters would be to bet $10 to 1
cent, for example, that the candidate
in question would not win. The man
with the short end of the bet would
be certain to vote for the candidate
in order to win his $10. It is to pre
vent this form of purchase that the
anti-betting statutes were enacted;
not for the purpose of preventing
genuine wagers, for these are jiot re
garded in public opinion as reprehen
sible. The law Is there to be invoked
if vote buying is attempted, and It is
very rarely applied to any other kind
of wager than the kind that involves
corruption.
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OCTOBER 20
j UChandleM Coles If WTSwedleX
3t&rn<s>r\\\ Christy 11 Phillips 7 \
I ANOTHER ARTISTIC TREAT!
I Fresh from the Easels of I
■ C. COLE.S PHILLIPS, W. T. SMEDLEY 1I §
|||| HOWARD CHANDLER CHRISTY, ALBERT STERNER I j
111 l and CHARLES DANA GIBSON I |
1 " THE . J|
MAGAZINE SECTION
I SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20th I
I A MERICA'S most famous illustrators have given their best efforts for the artistic i j
II I success in the production of our Annual Art Issue. f j
ml Never before has the work of five such well-known artists appeared in a single issue of | j
JT|J '"IpHE expense of an issue of this kind is enormous, and is another evidence of our 11 I
raS£ **■ desire to offer only the best in art and literature to be secured in this country. | j
111 TVyf AGNIFICENT art work and good literature have combined to make THE SEMI- 1 j|i||
II -Wl MONTHLY MAGAZINE SECTION the most interesting magazine that has ever II jjj
II been delivered to your home on Sunday morning. 10 |j
II '"pHERE will be a tremendous demand for this issue. Better make sure of your l!i M jjj
111 A number in advance. Be sure to tell your newsdealer, on the way to your office 1 |||
;|l| this morning, to save you a copy. No extra charge. 1 i;||
ill 11 "THE RETURN OF THE COLONEL OF KOPENICK" '*CONFESSION ■ I j
111 The life, death, resurrection and further adventures of the * by Ralph A. Graves Hi ;jjf
I I 1 g"** international joker as given to his friend A CTnDV , !««.„., «,k« M .f... M *v. «.;™- t~, _i,;,k »,;<■ ■''''!!
j HI ivam MrtDnnMv A •'•l""* ot a lawyer who confesses the crime for which his nM : i It
IJIJ ■ I IVAN NORODNY ■'*■ client is just about to be sentenced. An unusual story of great jfjj; I
II "DE sure to read this article and fore-arm yourself to expect strength and tenseness, with a keenly developed, dramatic climax. gjj j
[111 I I another great international joke which "The Colonel" P 111
j HI promises to perpetrate before long, and one that will sink into "THE ISSUE" j| I
HI insignificance his last great one of arresting the mayor of a great il» r»_ »„ u „ki i ■! "V
111 German city in broad daylight and sending him to Berlin under by t » #or * e B * ron Hubbard HI,; T
1 111 military guard. A TALE of a deputy sheriff, and a candidate for higher office, li j 111
f 111 111 wno " P' acc< * m tne unenviable position of defending his I'lll'''
HI I " HYSTERIA IN CHILDHOOD" prisoner from a band of lynchers, largely composed of his personal | j
111 by H. Addington Brace friends aud political supporters. A story with a punch. |i!!'!i
111 HPHE third of the series by this eminent authority on the edu- ~* i ETTERS" |HMij
I 111 cation and up-bringing of children. A very much worth- . . . f| . _ 111
H II while special article of intense interest, which acts as a fitting b * "U*** Bonnet-Thompson |
1 111 climax to this most interesting and instructive series. Mr. Bruce A LOVE story told in the form of letters that were not sent, and If
I 11 writes as an authority and treats his subjects with a masterful •**• concealed in the letters that were sent. An unusual. 11l
ill II touch. entertaining and altogether delightful little story with an inference. I 111
1111 REMEMBER the DATE-OUT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20 tb l|jl
lIIIbTDCC Tiir j~% aw w CDrr 111
IrKttITHE CALL Irßeel I
The San Francisco Sunday Call
