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Jfetu Jtork ftntome Urat to Uat?the Truth: JtaaPB? Edltortala?AdvertlaemCTU ti'bwat. ocrroarjt t*. taia. Owned and publlahed dally by Tho Trlb ,.M Aaeorlat;,..,. . N*w Tork rorporatloa. "aUanXl* President; O. Vernor Roiera. ,,?? r. A Bater. Treaaurer. Addr*aa. ,, Bur.d.n,. 181 N.^u Street. N.w *.r* laiapBaaa. EaaBwan mo. ..?rur-TH.N SATSai "vX*"-*0" aK* r.ld. outalda of OmtBB Ne* *??*? , _- l 18 I'alU ony. 1 mo ..t 58 JT. igJSw aaV. 1 ??ar I 60 aaaaaaaaam TJATIS ' ( ANAMAN RATS8 OEFTS, VS&T JI>A.LT AM> ?VStflA . llMir, nenth.. ? ? -? 4.;^:^t :::::::bbj ?- ^AU.T ..M-r ATONLT. .. .HS8O01 y**r.?M | at tha Poatofflc. at New Vork aa BB8 Mail Matter - You can pnrchaae merrhandiae ad ,rr?,Hed la THE TRIBINE with abao lute aafety-for If ^?"^^i0""' Milts ln any caae THE IRIBINE -uarantee* to pay your money back upon request. No red tape. No quib l.ling. We make good promptly it tne idvrrtiarr does not. Constanza Tln- eapture of Constanza by Mackensen's army of Bulgars, Turks Mid Germans is one of the most im ICCBBSBB of the war. Its ,-v o nsequences may be large ? r small; they will probably be small in comparison with the moral ef acts; yet it is not the military but; the moral consequences which will count immediately and weigh heavily against the Allied harvest of accom-; plishment for the last four or five , months. Above all it is necessary to say i.ow that the golden moment in the BalkaOB, which came with the en trance of Kumania into the war, has ;.een rOBt The whole Baikan play ?med Bgaiast the Allies they not able to nrake use of the ad bat eaac Inta their I ,-hen Kumania entered the conflict; as preat as that of esa loai by mistakes yet prove as stupid as h nmda the Dardanelles ? L-raveyar.l of Britisb troops and . U OBB were to go back a little ,ore than a month and measure the .mmont then going the round of the conclusions drawn ntraacs of Kumania into ?rife, one would have a fair casure of the change that has ?>me. With Fa'.kenhayn's successful hrust in Tramylvania and into Ru ania the e expires the legend that Im Gajrtaaai have no itratsfic re icnra, Falkenhayn's army was a -trategic reserve; K was assembled and flung at the critical gap in the ; ;errr.an and Austrian lines and it has brought back a great triumph. We may BSt the two waves of vic :.>rious armies. that of Falkenhayn in Transylvania, that of Mackensen in the Dobrudja, converge until they meet at Bucharest. This is now a r.hun possibility. We may see Ku? mania cut in half, the western half merged in the solid block of the terri n.ries of the Central Powers. We -ee ail Kumania to the Pruth .-wept up in the rush of triumphant Teutome invasion, or we may see Mackensen halted east of the Danube and Falkenhayn's drive stopped in the Transylvanian Alps; but we shall not now see Bulgaria overrun or turned from her allegiance to the ("entral Powers, nor shall we see Grssea swept by popular enthusiasm into the Allied embrace. By taking Constanza the Central !'<>wer< have deprived Rumania of ?M seaport. They nrust pres t htly posse.-^s the eastern end of the < ernavoda Bridge, the one bridge nanning the Danube between Bel ^rade and the Black Sea. The bridge may be destroyed as was the bridge at Belgrade, but on the ruins of the latter the engineers of Mackensen >peediiy raised a new structure. i Here, then, is a possible road across the Danube to Bucharest, a far bet tajf crossing than was obtained when Turtakan and Silistna were capt Biajd. Henceforth we must watch the two -teadily converging armies of the C.erman commanders, Mackensen and Falkenhayn. On the map Rumania looks like a gigantic salient driven westward into the solid block of ter ritory belonging to the Central Pow i rs. If Mackcn:*en and Falkenhayn ? an meet, they will shorten the front the Central Powers in the east by ?al hundred miles, thus reducing the numbers needed to defend it. They will arquire possession of a rich ??.heat ar.d oil country. It is still too early to forecast the .'all of Bucharest or the lmmolation of Rumania, but the fate of Belgium and Serbia if now withln plain sight. Two months ago Rumania Beemed destir.cd |0 bring deei?ive aid to the Allied cause; to-day the single ? peculation must be whether the Al liea can nave Rurrrania, and of this there is obvious doubt. Who shail explain the cause* ajf 'he Allied failurc? We are told by Dr. Dillon ifl a British magazine that ihe blunderi'.g in the matter of sup fKjrting taM army of Sarrail is beyond !^lief, and the inferenre m that thia la chargeabl. t/> the Kritinh, who are reaponaible for tranaport. We are j told that the Rumaniana originaUy > invited aaaStarMSisI by invading i Tranaylvania firat. We shall b* told ' other thinga, but the aum of a!) eajff ?nformation muat U that a great i * chance was lost and that a corre spondingly great German success has resulted. It was the moral value of the German failure at Verdun that de pressed the Germans and roused the French to new confidence. It was the moral effect of the Russian victories in Galicia that contributed to still further depression in Berlin and new faith in the Allied capitals. The early advances in the Battle of the Somme seemed to confirm the other indications that the long-postponed crumbling of German power was in sight. Finally the entrance of Ru? mania was a demonstration that what the Allies felt, the most ex posed and imperilled of all possible recruits believed. Now the moral effect of Ru- j mania's disaster is equally to be reckoned with. Berlin and Vienna will respond to the new victory as did Paris and London to the prc vious triumphs. German leaders have declared that Germany is in vincible, and now Mackensen and Falkenhayn have supplied frcsh evi dence in the field. Hindenburg has been called upon to restore hope and confidence, and under his supreme command confidence and hope have been restored. It is foolish to attempt to mini mize the meaning of Constanza, whatever be its consequences. It will have preeisely the effect in Allied capitals that Grant's failure to dis pose of Lee in 18C>4 had in Washing ton. After the terrible sacrifices from the Rapidan to Cold Harbor, to the trenches before Petersburg, the, South still stood invineible, and Early approached and threatened. Washington. Recognizing all this, however, it is equally futile to exaggerate the | meaning of this new triumph. Germany has disposed of a new foe in shining fashion; she has warded off a tarrible thrust with su? preme Bkill and with a promptne.ss that commands admiratioi*, but. this lioea not on the military lidfl change the situation which existed before Rumania came ln, save Bl it has re duced the reservos of thfl Central Powen through losses in a cam paign againat a new enemy. The Allied publics, which believed that Gflrmany was actually crum tling. short of man power, facing immediate defeat, wiil have to re vise their calculations. The German people, who believed that Germany eould stand on thfl defensive Indflfi nitely, will find new confirmation for their faith, and the new confldenee will materially strengthen German resistance, as the French defence at Verdun strenpthened French confi? dence and French determination. We are now going to see a new period of depression atnong the Al? lied nations. We are going to see a time of doubt and of trial. This was the experience of the North in the terrible test of 1864. But the people of the North stood firm in the face of temporary depression and the outcome of their tirmness was ultimate victory. There was a simi? lar period of doubt and hesitation when Napoleon won his victories in the Marne Valley in 1814, but in the end his enemies persevered and the collapse came. This is unquestionably the great crisis of the war for the Allies. If their alliance can endure this new reverse and this very illuminating demonstration that the way to ulti? mate victory must be long and cost ly, the German success at Constanza, the disaster to Rumania, will have no real consequences. But Ger? many will use her utmost effort to make this last success the basis for a settlement which shall not be un iavorable to her or too co;:tly to her foes. Sh? has her excuse for pro posing "victorious peace" again. She will use it. The Lirdoiuine Look Perhaps it is hypercritical of us. Riding in a limousine is a magnifi cent and awful thing, and how should any plain mortal be expected to endure it without amendment to his soul? Still, from our sidewalk, we do observe and protest. (an no human being, even though to the limousine born, learn to ride in a closed car and avoid the doflfld face, that blank, toplofty, British aloof ness of expret-sion so alien 80 normal Ameriean worry and cheerfulness? There was a time not so many years ago when every one who rode in a carriage on Fifth Aver.ue had a carriage look. It was a badge of honor indicating arrival among those choice few who by virtue of a bank account eould afford to sacrifire their calves and colons to the horedom of riding bflhifld their own pair. That has vanished. The aristocratie car? riage has gone the way of all aris toeracy and has be-?n Buper?eded by the democratic motor car, which almost any one can flaunt upon the Avenue. Hauteur plared upon an equality with impudence purchased for $3''>Q f. o. b. Detroit simply ran i not exist. The oldtime aristocratic vehicular look has flivvred past re j call. The limousine look is the small re maining stirvival. It attacks any happy, laughing dcbulante or batik prenident the instant the door slarns and they Kink bark in what is tech nically known in our B8JtO_ohllfl lit erature as "miladi's drawing room on wheels." It comes on or off the face very rrrurh as do the dfltBchablfl i'.j,- ? i.;.' < ',r,: < 11 Bfl onlinary t.ojr ing car of MMMH into a minia ture palace fit to stand before the blazing glory of an opera house with a uniformed attendant handing in a very charming and expensive wife. (The Russian wolfhound is always left at home in the garage in these limousine pictures.) It is from these same authentic sources that comes the one possible answer to our problem. It appears to be settled that in the near future no American family will be able to BxJst without a closed car. That eondition obviously spells the doom of the limousine look. With all de mocracy riding behind glass the whole occasion for the look vanishes. It will not only be possible, but corrr pulsory, to ride in a closed car and remain an ordinary, open-faced hu? man being. Not a Back Room Stateaman Mr. Hughes's denial of the Demo? cratic National Committee's charge that he entered into some sort of se cret deal with the American Inde? pendence League?a German-Ameri can Insh-American hyphenate or ganization?was scarcely needed. Allegations like this and the Nor man Hapgood statement that Mr. Hughes was making speeches writ ten by young Mr. Kidder may carry some weight in places in this land where the candidate is not known personally. But in this state, where the people had a chance to study him for four years, they seem the merest nonsense. The Hapgood "sen sation" hlew up almost as soon as it was loosed, and its author now admits that he has been "muz zled politically"?assuredly not by the Republicans. This later piece of the same stock unquestionably will I prove to be as sleazy material. In his bitterest fights here no one of Mr. Hughes's political antago nists was silly enough to charge that the Governor was making dickers. No one ever fathered an accusation that he was shaping his speeches or course of aetion to suit the views of any faction or group or coterie in the community in accordanee with a seeret bargain. The man's rerord ln office gave the lie to any such idea. He could have avoided many hard i a. ea if he had been willing to do it- ' He could have escaped much labor and many hard fights if he had been r. dealer and a trimmcr. Ile wasn't built that way. As Governor Mr. Hughes wa? his own man?nobody else's. Neither thn?e who fou^'ht with him nor those who fought against him in that pe? riod ran bo convinced now that he has made himself over and is saying in some back room what he wouldn't j say on the stump. The Republican Statea In order to win the Presidency Mr. Hughes must get 266 votes in the Electoral College. The great advan tage in position which he enjoys in this campaign is that he can get more than 266 votes by simply carry ing normally Republican states. He ran win and yet concede to Mr. Wil? son all the Democratic states, all the customariiy doubtful states and even some states rcognized as Repub? lican. If Mr. Hofhsfl can poll the Repub? lican popular vote of 1904 or K)08, or the combincd Progressive and Repub? lican vote of 1912?all these totals being practically the same?Mr. Wil? son, on his popular vote of 1912?the normal Democratic total?has an ad verse balance to overcome of about 1,200,000. The great strength of the Repub? lican candidate's position becomes apparent when conditions are studied in the normal Republican strong holds. New England has 44 elec? toral votes, divided as follows : Maine, ?J; New Hampshire, 4; Vermont, 4; Massachusetts, 18; Rhode Island, 5, and Connecticut, 7. The excess of the Republican-Progressive vote of 1912 over the Wilson vote in each of those states was: Maine, 23,925; New Hampshire, 15,997; Vermont, 30,110; Massachusetts, 124,768; Rhode Island, 14,11)9, and Connecti? cut, 27,892. The election in Maine last month and the other develop ments of the campaign have shown that the Republican-Progressive re consolidation in New England is virt ually complete and that these states pre pretty safely Republican. In the Middle States there has been a similar unification. The Repub? lican-Progressive margins against Wilson in 1912 were: New York, 189,974; New Jersey, 55,956; Penn sylvania, 325,112, and Delaware, 2,252. In all these states the Repub? licans won in 1914. In the recent primaries in New York and New Jersey a strong Republican prepori derance was indicated. More votes were east in the Republican primary in New Jersey than Mr. Wilson re-1 ceived for President four years ago. ! West Virginia Bhould be added to ! the Middle States group. It has leen tafsly Republican for the last twenty years. The Republican-Pro-; trraaaSJVB vote there in 1912 exceeded the Wilson vote by 22,598?a normal showing. These five Btates have 108 electoral ; \otes, divided as follows: New York, 46; New Jersey, 14; Pennsylvania, j 3H; Delaware, 3, and West Virginia, H. With New England, they make a Republican total of 152. There is a group of stalwart Re-1 pablicaa Btates ln the Middle West and Northwest. In it are ineluded MicHigsn, with 15 votes; Illinois, with 29j Minnesota, with 12; lowa, with 18; Kansas, with 1'?; North Da kota, with 6, and South Dakota, with 5. In 1912 Wilson lost Michigan, Minnesota and South Dakota and came near losing Illinois. The Pro gressive-Rcpublican margina over Wilson were: Michigan, 216,077; Illinois, 235,033; Minnesota, 83,764; Iowa, 96,299; Kansas, 51,392; North Dakota, 19,261; South DaKota (where there was no Taft ticket in the field), 9,869. The 89 electoral votes of this group added to those of the New England and the Middle States groups produce a total of 241. A fourth strong Republican group is found in the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast sections. In it are Utah. 4 votes; Wyoming, 3; Idaho, 4; Washington, 7; Oregon, 5, and California, 13. Four years ago the Republican-Progressive margins in those states were: Utah, 29,695; Wyoming, 8,482; Idaho, 24,416; Washington, 97,303; Oregon, 25.206. In California there were no Taft electors on the official ballot and nearly all the Taft supporters voted for Wilson. Roosevelt carried the state, however, by a small margin. The normal Progressive-Republican plurality in California is about 150, 000. These six states have 36 elec? toral votes. If they also go for Hughes his total will be 277?11 more than a majority. This computation of Republican strength excludes the four normally Republican states of Indiafia, Wis consin, Ohio and New Mexico, with f.r. electoral votes. In all of these the Republican-Progressive totals of 1912 exceeded the Wilson totals: In Indiana, by 31,384; Wisconsln, by 28,927; Ohio, by 83,141; New Mex? ico, by 5,643. It also excludes the doubtful states of Montana, Colo rado, Nevada, Nebraska and Mary land, with 28 votes. In each of these also Mr. Wilson's total in 1912 fell short of the Republican-Progressive total?in Montana, by 13,027; Colo rado, by 16,460; Nevada. by 830: Ne? braska, by 17,897; Maryland, by 71. Here are 81 votes, a majority of which are more likely to be east for Mr. Hughes than for Mr. Wilson. And every state in this list carried by the Republican nominee would off set an equal loss in the states classi fied as pretty surely Republican. The conclusion is evident Mr. Wilson must make a tremendous ef fort all along the line to win, or even to reduce the Republican electoral vote to 277 or thereabouts. Only a very violent political reaction, of the sort that has not been seen in our politics sinee the early 90's, will up set the natural balance of parties eufhViently to throw a reelection to Mr. Wilson. "Treainry Romancea" i Fro-n Th' rhxlnd'lphti /?74?lrer> Tart of the touching Iiterature of the war is a little tract that haa jnst appeared in London of quasi-official in spiration, named "Treasury Romaneea." James Douglas. who has compiled It. explains that often the patriotiBm of those who give to Britain's war*fund ia "buried five fathoms deep in the Treasury files." He has brought to light with retieence and discretion a few typical instances of sacrificial loy fllty. Here, for example, is a m.ner who <=ang at seventeen workmen's clubr and inns "for the benefit of the war." and thus gathered in driblets twenty pounds. An old woman writea, "I have much pleashr in sending you the pound," which leads the compiler to add, "Her particular and probably her only pound." A child of seven sends a yhilling, a poor man transmita nine penee. From lonely Fanning Island, in the South Seas, come two contributions from natives of the Gilbert Islands at work there. A donkeyman aboard ft ship bringing meat from Austraha writes at the close of an impassioned letter: "Do do not mind the grammer. C.rammer does not count as a rule with gentlemen. I Inclose a pound aa a starf." And so it goes. The imperial hope of England is in auch hearts as these. Loog Distance Legal Oratory iriaaa rha l.undnn "*"mr.ii At the conclusion of the hearing in the case of the Amalgamated Proper tiea of Rhodesia iLimited) against the (Hobe and Phfcnix (!old Mining Com? pany i Limited), Mr. Upjohn, K. C, con cluded his speech for the defendants, having addressed the court for forty five days, the hearing having occupied one hundred and forty-four daya in all. He said he was not sure whether he ought not to apologize for the length of time he had occupied, but he fel* that he eould not blame himself. Ho had more than JiO.OOO questions and answers to go through, 6,000 papes of printed evidence, and 25*5 exhibits. In reading, noting and aynthesizing the case for the purpose of placing it be? fore the court he had occupied eighty four daya, not to speak of the work done by the other counsel for the de? fendants. Justice Ere aaid Mr. Upjohn'a great Fpeech was hound to provoke a great deal of critieism because of Its length. Rut, having listened to every word of that speech, he waa well quallfied to offer an opinion upon it, and he wished to express his appreeiation of lt aa an example of unwearying lndustry. Sonnet Lincoln "Thou shouldst be ltvlng at thia hour!" Thy reach of vision prophet thou and aeer - Thy atrong and ateadfast wisdom, Judgment clenr, Are needed in thia atreaa, thy old time power The ship of state to aave from atonns that lower And threaten to engulf. Dark reefa loom near! No "watchful waiting" will avall us here. That wlnd-awept, tosaing ahlp paat rocks that tower To guide to aunlit watera calm se rcne. Oh! for a leader, fearleaa, atrong and wise, Of awift decision, end with Inaight keen To aee the danpers; aeom all totti promiae; Restore the honor loat, tha faith wa prire, And bring us back the glory that hath betn! KENYON WEST. , | "ME r\ND MINE' Juit Wbbbb Mr. Wilson Haa aaa Has Nat Protected To th. Editor of The Tribune. Sir: Perhaps you have noticed th. Democratle campaign picture of th. workman being greeted by hia famfly on his retum from work. With a pict? ure of President Wilson befor. hia eyei he exclairas, "He has protected m. and mine." I think that thia picture ahould only be exhibited with ita two companion picturea on. of the drowning women and children of the Lusitania, the other a picture of the mutilated bodies of Americans murdered in Mexico. "He has protected me and mine." G. H. HORNE, JR. Brooklyn, Oct 17, 1916. What of Mr. Hnghea'i Natmim? To the Editor of The Tribune. Sir: Personally I believe that the tariff and the eight-hoir law come nearer to the atomach than the flag. Probablv the greater number of those who hold our fate in their hands have no ocular proof that an ocean exists. They eat. Times are good. They let it go at that. The country ia typified by the village cut-up, who can lick the whole town with one hand tied be? hind his back. But whether they are i.ble or not to recognize their best in terests, our foreign policy is, of course, the big, the grave, issue of the time. And in this issue nationalism is in volved. Deper.ding upon the degree to which we develop nationalism will our foreign policy rise or fall. To my knowledge. Mr. Hughes's re? cent speech, incidentally answering pro fessional hecklers, i? his first concrete reference to pan-Germar.ism. I speak as a well wisher who intends to vote for him, but I also speak for many who regard his Americanism, his expressior. of it, aa rather platitudinous and aa not above anspicion. It is almost insnlting to an Ameri? can to be asked to define his Ameri? canism. It is a matter of feeling. It is the same as family instinct, blood loyalty. There are no conditions in tolved. The in*tinct Is for fealty to America, first, last, all the time and under all cireumstanees. We are not bitter against the American citizer of German blood or soil. We are, how? ever, Litter against the citizen whose pro-Germanism rr.akea him a Germnn Anierican. We cannot sutTer such citi Eenahip to ezlat Before the law citizenship knows no distinction. Nativism should not. ex ;st. It would not exist save for cause. The German-American view of what is nativism and sinister ia in itself the sin ister cause of uny nativism in which we may indulge. In other words, the Germari-Amencan view, or his attitude toward Americanism. is the sinister cause of any so-cal!ed nativism. And it is precNely upon such "nativism" that the unhyphenated, irrespectivc of soil, ask of Mr. Hughes definite, con? crete views. EDWASD J. LONGMAN. Brooklyn. Oct. 19, 1916. A "Yellow" NatioB To the Editor of The Tribune. Sir: Da you know the latest joke on ua in Furope? They are saying that the next war will be between the two yellow nations America and Japan! An Independent, who voted for 'Teve land, I now inter.d to vote for Hughes, because: 1. While "Wilson kept ua out of war" he could bett.r have done the same thing by practically declaring war, for the adversary only waited for him to show the first sign of nerve to beat a retreat. H. could have pre vented the loss of Americans on the Lusitania hy just two aentences to the Kaiser. Even Democrats now admit this. We have had four yeara of shame and I want to aee a real gov? ernment at Washington that does not drag our flag in the dirt and does not truckle to lahor unions. 2. I spent last year ln the South, and everywhere I heard one jubilant note: "It is our first chance to get back the money we lost in the war." Wilson is their Santa Claus. Of course, they will vote golidly for a government which has permitted looting the Treas ury for various mud creek improve \ ments and aand bottom harbors (take | th. Warrior River, for example! I i Under the policy of secrecy the Wash \ ington government has done many , things known only ln Southern locali ! ties which if known in the North would raise a storm of indignation. I?et us have an open Administration 'with no seeret back stairway, no se ? cret advisers, no seeret emissaries to do what our ambassadors and consuls are paid for doing. Let us have no more yellow cowardice and no more se? eret missions -no more blunders and no more Woodrowl INDEPENDENT. New York, Oct. 20, 191*. When We Weren't Proaperoua To the Editor of The Tribune. Sir: There should be some way de vised to remlnd the voters of the con? ditions in 1913-'14 of Wilson's Admin? istration. That waa the taat under normal conditions the world over. I was in four Southern States during that time ar.d the dissatisfaction was general and waa rightly charged to the Administration. There was being or ganized among lifelong Democrata a "Young Men's High Tariff Club" in North Carolina. While I am no politician, and least of all able to give adviee, yet lt ap pears to tne that a concentrated effort on the part of the Republican press of the country just before the election would be very effeclive. Bring these faets before the laborer and farmer. Look ing back on the Democratic "prosperity" under normal conditions would beat all silver tongued orators they coulo mustrr. THOS. J. LINERTON. Winchester, Tenn., Oct. ltj, 1916. It Was Official To the Editor of The Tribune. Sir: Will you please inform me whether or nct any official warning was given people suiling on the Lusitania on her last trip by the representatives of the German government? Was a warning published in any New York newspaper that was offlcial? CLOTOatD J. FULLER. New York, Oct. 1K, 1916. [The warning advertisement came from the German Emhassy, and was signed "Imperial German Emhassy." ?Eb.J THE SOUTH IN THE SADDLE Now Ruling the Country and Willing to Continue by Grace of Any Northern Element Which Will Call Itself Democratic?No Convictions Save on the Race Question To the Editor of The Tribune. Sir: Some of our Democratic South? ern Senatora, Senator Tillman among the numbar, are complaining because the Republican speakers are call|ng the attention of tbe Northern people to the fact that the South ia again "in the aaddle." The Sonth Is either in the aaddle or it ia not. It ia either governing the country or it ia not. To call the attention of the country to the fact, if it ia a fact, ia not, as Senator Tillman asserts, waving the bloody shirt. If tho Northern people nre aatisfled that they themselves can? not run the government so well as the Southern people can, then they ought to vote for Mr. Wilson. There is no sense in trying to evade the fact that the South is the brains and backbone of the Democratic party. The South ia perfectly willing to assume all respon ?tbility of running the government, but ia not laboring under any delusion as to its tenure of power. Be assured that every question of national im portance which comes up will be set tled in conformity with the welfare end happiness of the South, so long as the South is in the saddle. The South, of course, wants the North to pay the taxes and the taxes to be apent for the benerit of the South. The South has been Uught that the North, when in power, taxed the South and spent the money for the North. But, aside from the question of who shall pay the taxes, and where shall the taxea be spent, there is staring the country in the face the great fact that the solid South ia a real menace to the happiness and welfare of the country. The South can never vote any other way than Democratic. Let the Northern people face that fact. In large aections of every Southern state the negroes either outnumber the whitea or equal them, and for aafety's take the white people are determined never to divide so as to give any po litical power to the negro. Every pub? lic question is secondary to that. The South has stood for Sam Randall, of Pennsylvania, a Democrat in favor of high protection. Then it went wild over Watterson and a "tariff for rev , enue only." It stood for Cleveland and the gold atandard, ar.d then for Bryan and free silver. It would as choerfully have voted for the most hidebound conservative Democrat aa it did for Wilson. The South ia perfectly willing to form a coalition with any diasatisfied , element in the North, provided that element is strong enough to aaaure victory and will for the time being allow itself to be called Democratic. Every question is of secondary im portance to the South in comparison with the one which appeals to us every day, namely, How doea the aolution of thia question or that question af -, feet our relation to the negro? The negro is before us, in the flesh, tangible; all other questiona are the oretical. We are going to eettle thia question -the tangible one?to auit '. ourselves. We have no firm convictions on any other question. An important question camo up ! some months back. President Wilson and hia Secretary of War. Mr. Gar rison, agreed that the best way to pre I paro the country to defend itself against foreign aggreasion was to com pel every able bodied male citizen of military age to undergo military train ing for a stated period. The President went before the coun? try and aroused the people to a realiza tion of the danger of unpreparedness. His apeeches were very effective. He came back to Washington ready to ; place before Congress hia plans to ' raise this great army of soldiers. In ' the meanwhile the Democratic Con gres?men from the South had heard from their constituents. These Con gressmen went to Mr. Wilson and told him that tho South would not fcr one minute agree to arming and training as soldiers the young negro men of the South. The king can do no wrong, and Mr. Garrison was unceremonious ]y kicked out of tho Cabinet. The menace of the South ia roal. Wo are a menace to ourselves as well aa to you. Thousands of us vote tho Democratic ticket, but in ocr hearts hope the good aenae of the North will save us from a caiamity of our own making. ?._? AN OLD CONFEDERATE. Wytheville, Va., Oct. 16, 1916. Up-State Politicians at Sea Over Trend of "Silent Vote ft Republican Majority Assured at Syracuse, but Size b in Doubt?Drift to Wilson Has No Effect on Farmers By S. H. EVANS Syracuse, Oflt 23.--He who asserts ! that it is possible to prediet the vote | of the State of New York within 100,000 U talking foolishness. Straw votea may indicate trends, wise old veterans with supersensitive politieal feelers may feel shifts, the canvasses of the county chairmen of the respective par 1 ties may be taken most conservatively, ! but the fact ia that nobody really ' knows anything about it until the fig ures begin to come in. One election distriet ia more or less : like another. In each there is an ir ' reducible minimum or heretofore ir redueible minimum of Republican votea. A shift of five votes in each election I distriet of 300 or more voters means a change in the net result of 50,000. Here in Onondaga County, where politica is more or less an exact sei ence, predictiona have been made in past years which have been almost un canny in their uccuracy. The poli? ticians know Onondaga; apparently, too, the people of the citv of sart and typewnters and Chancellor Day and Ray Smith and Bill Kelly and that dean of the "old guard," Francis Hendncks. ?nd of much else besides. These folks srem to be pretty average folks, and in ordinary years if one who is bent on finding things out in advance eould get a genuine "line" on Onor.daga t'ounty Bfl nu?-ht, without too much danjrer, risk Bfl opinion on the size of the majority which "eomes down to The Bronx." This No Ordinary Year But this is no ordinary year The ' wise ones, Republican or Demoerat, . will sav quite frankly that they don't i know, that they have not been able as i yet "to get a 'ine" on the county. There is no doubt, of course. that . Onondaga will return a Republican I majority. But will it be 14,000 or bet? ter, which would mean that Hughes would sweep tho state to the tune of liOO.OOO? Or will it be 7,000 or less, which would mean a very narrow squeak for somebody? The Republicans who are in the thiek of the fight here are very confident. The Democrats in the trenches are equally confident. Here. as in many other sections. there is a sort of ragBA feeling that somehow. in some way, verj reeently there has been a trend toward Wilson. Try to dig into that vague l'eeling, and you come on equally vaj-ue foundation for lt The prefeaaloaala among the Republicans will tell you that Hughes started too early and fired too many rounds af bird shot. They like the way he Ifll eampaigning now, however. They be- i lieve he is hitting some body blows I that are sure to tell. See llard Tlmea Coming There are, too, aome lifelong Re? publicans who take an extremely col<l blooded, philosophic view of the im niediato future. It might be for the more pernianent good of the G. O. P.,. they say, if Wilson were elected. They ; iook for extremely bad times, soup Kitchens and bread lines, in about two years. They say that Wilson ar.d the Democratic party are sure to make things aa bad as they possibly eould be. and that by 1920 the Ameriean people would be in a state of mlnd to make it impossible for a Demoerat to win in tbirty years. This sort of talk one gets only from Bourbons of the Bourbons, and the: dflflfl of four years more of Wilson and his (abinet and his party is too bitter even for them to swallow. ln the country districta and amall towns herenbouts there ia a much more, optimistic view of the .situation among Republicans. There are not any Dem? ocrats worth menticning. I'har'.es H. Betts, of Lyons, expressed the views of a creat many ujvstate and small town Republicans in these woni.: "The Republicans are jfomg to win hecause they can't lose; are (foing to win in spita of bad generalship. Vhia case went to the Ameriean jury before the great war started. The evidenee ' waa cloaed ten montha after the I,'ndor wood tarifT was on the books. I nem ployment was increasini,' rapidly, tbe j charity organization .sorietiea were unrking overtirne, soup bouses tXteM&f were being set up. The jury ha* been | holdmg a aaaled vardict avar since. i One of the jurors reported over in Maine the other day." As far as can be learned, the ferm ; ers of New York State are not :m pressed with the argument of "he kept us out of war." Nor do they li;ten paiiently to the talk that the Adrtm son law was paased in their Intareat. The weak point from a Repurjlic.in point of view in the farmer aitaatioa is their abundant prosperity and the fact that they are very busy. Th,>y are more interested in getting those highly expensive potatoes to market and in the soaring price of wheat than : in anything else. The diflkulty w.ll I be in getting out the vote. If ihe farmer vote is polled there is no c'.oubt about the result. W. M. Giles, who livea at Skane atelcs, N. Y., and is secretary of the state grange, has been travelling through seven rural countiea in Cen? tral and Western New York. He finds that the Democrats have made .10 in roads on the rural vote. He finds that Hughes is very popular. He made his reputation with the farmers of this Ftate when he was Governor. .- a HOMICIDES HERE FEWER NOW THAN YEAR AGO Reduction of 20 Per Cent Shown in Report by Police The number of homicides in New York was reduced 20 per cent during ' the nine months ended September 30, aecording to a report made public yes? terday by Police Commissioner Woods. The record of th. first nine months of , this year, compared with that of 1915, follows: 1916. 1915. Manhattan . 77 95 The Bronx. 11 Brooklyn . 42 63 Queens . 6 8 Richmond . 1 3 Totals .137 172' Up to September 30 last there had been 99 arrests for homicide, 27 con victions, 29 discharges and 43 cases still pending. For the same period last year there were \2n arrests, 47 convictions, 71 discharges and two cases pending. WHAT IS GOING ON TO-DAY Krr? adaria*tafl to Iaa Amrrtran Muacum of Satural lllatnry MatnavUtafl Jfu?*ura of Art N>? Y'jr.; ZoolOBtral V.r',:. Van C'ortlai.lt l'ark Muaruci ai..l tli* Aquarlum Korial Day of tha Th*atre Oub of Xaw Tork. Befal Aator. - p m aVattna of t!,? Beriea* for Poiiueai studr. H.tei aaaaia 2 30 p. m AtMiaai 1. Dr. W H Taii on "wy.it w* Bboulri Iv aa About Infar.tl'.* ParalyaU" b* for- Um >>a'.lii'ial Mouw.vlTm' Lrafu*. b*ad QiaarUCB, 88 Weat for; flfth SrreaH. 2 30 p. m \> ?? t of th* Bualnea* Man'a Rapubllean At awlalion. Ya ? Club. 3pm DBmm of -h* laaaraaaa Boci*tj of n*w r?ri. ll'H-l A!?t.ir, 7 p. m DBjaat tt th* Hlf Ilrotb*ra and Blf Blitar* of !.Ilaptrtal Bettt. IU<1 Tfook Lar.a ai.J Kulton tttrwt. Brou?:jn. 7 p. ci AMrrta by Samu*l II. ("huhb on "PoaalMlltte* ln Itird I'hotograpny ln Ne? Tork tlty" ba f m Iaa UaBMB h'?-if.y of New Tork. Anirrlian M<i tum of Natural H:at.>n. 8pm aaMraaa by Dr. Kdwaid kli)? or. Tha Phtloa eabj cr 1'onlllTlam" bafaf* th. N.w York 1 : i\frvti PhtlaaaahlaaJ Hocl?ty. ri:> Oallafi i .').' Ma.llaou Innut. 1 p m. Ia?.-ur? Bf IT Krank ("rana on '"How to Uft." audltorlum. TotiM* Man'a Chrta'lan A la'Jon. 311 W?at Firtj aateath Strcat. I li p. m. Iita- iia-lon on "Tha Iiatiaa of tha Praaldentlal Llectlon" at th* m*?tt;ig of th* laBMl CulUrr Men'i ilub >>f tha Ctiurch of tha Uraalah, rhunh. l'ark Aranu* and Thlrt) fourth Slrrel. S 15 p ? I'uMlo !<?. ''irra of th? I'.oarl of Edu.-atlon. 1 11 p. m Uanbatlan T'i* Citr i>f Wa?:it? Iaa" b} r. !*anl JUatua I'arkrr. VYadleljb li,a'. Brbool, 11! b Btrrai, nal af s,.. ?>! Airnuf, ' RoUaaalU Ta* HHuru to Naturr." raaaor CarUtlan ??*<>?,. Pablle school IS I ??.-!> aacend S'.r^t. ca?l of Tl.lr.l A'f.,>.e. I!-I..|t:.? from Alphaoat to Poalry." L-v Mr* Mary ti Murray, l*ublie tKhool ?3. r<nrth Htrert. ra.' ..f Klra' A?*:.'lf. \ i? CrAv.et and Adja.int lalanda," I. Mra I. a Klal.*r. Pabtk arhool i!i! BUbty *libth Mr-.t. *aat of Klr,t Awuu*. A Trlp to Ala.ka." by Adflalds II A!>r?...' Publt* I . .? ., '.io. ||7tb Strrft. w,-at of !-???: i. A,o min. ' l'aru ai?l EcgaatoT " ly Vrofraa r Hi-u Janiln 1. Mllir- Pwbttl B<-h.?W l| 1888 Mirra' and Wadawartb Arrrui*. Tha 8axa,*na and Ttifir Art/' I ?? lir llitnara ta I) !? II il 8 kawrlcaa Muarum M Saiural lllatory. H, Tf: ti ???riuh Ktrft and I'atilxal l'ark \\'t at. "Lonfftltaw, ih* raaL" by IVjfeaaor J Dui ran Hra*th. MatnaaUtaa Tampk. Baaaata Atri.ii. and KiHjrirriuli htr**t Th* fmi Tti* Bmallrat Thlnj ln fhe World." br fliar!*a I. Ilirrii.fton Pu^llr Bebeal f.1. .0 ?? Htnot and llull Ar*nu*. Miar Allan !?,??' Ir l>r Samnal Kata RJicnlala Hall. Hlitnlal* A**mi* and "lifiti, Nttr*t A li'.lnipaa at tl. Iltatnry af An-hlt?t<r? " bf OranTtlla r Bnalltnf. Bt. k ?-. Ilail. V: i,m Avrtm*. i.*ax 1 MM Btr*al THE HALSET PRINT COLLECTION Rare Americana, Portraits, Naval Views and Ur ban Subjects By ROYAL CORTISSOZ The collection of printa formed by Mr. Frederic R. Halaey, of this city, has long enjoyed an enviable celebrity amongst connoiaseurs. It i? very large containing more than ten thou sand pieces -and it is known for qual? ity aa well as for ita unusual mag nitude. The flrat section haa been placed on view at the Anderson Gal leriea, whero it will be sold on tha evenings of November 1, 2 and 3. This section, the catalogue of which runs to 723 numbera, ia devoted to Amer? icana, ineluding historical portraiu, naval printa, views of New York and divers miscellaneoua items. The por? traits dominate the show, forming aa extraordinarily interesting gallery. It is one of the joys of the collector of Americana that his scope is not eonfined to local boundaries. II.s soldiers and statesmen may ba not only Amerieans, but Enghshmen and Frenehmen. He ia, to be sure, as in terested in Lafayette as in Washing? ton; if he col'.ects the portraita of Franklin he collects also thosa of Pttt, The result in an exhibition lika thia is a faacinating asserr.hlage of per sonage8, a sort of international "Wno'a Who" of the Revo'.utionary period. A titting ieview of it would be not so much a matter of criticism aa an ex cursion into historical anecdota. One longa to put aside ques'ions of teeh nique and, tnstead, to track the aittora for theae portraita through tha memoira of their time, A Stipple by Baldry We pause before the "Frands Raw don Hastings. Earl of Moira" (No, 219), a atipple by Bnldry, after Sir Joshua. printed in colors. It ta a charming thing, detachmg itself by virtue of a eertain dainty eieganca from the rather tstately atmosphere enveloping most of the portraita of th:it epoch. One wou'.d like to krmw soniethin*? about that debonair gentie man, something apart from his publio eareer. whieh flatgat do a little to ex plain his peculiarly gracious salience, So we dip into Lady Bessborough'e sprightly correspondence and find her contiding to Lord Granville that "if Lord Moira would ^have fln the black whiskers that grow just under hii eyes and almost across his nosa ha Would be quite hand^ome" Ah! tha sublime magic of art'. Keynolds knew just what to do. He made the Earl a veritablo eichtcenth century Apollo. We wonder what tale m.ght be recov ered to match the gaillard presenca of Mr. Cai-b Whitefoord, late secre? tary to the British Commission for Treating of Peace with America, in the portrait again by Reynolds, but in this instance engraved by Jones. If there were time we would find ono or invent it - for there m>;<t mrely be some engaging reni'.n;;.cence to co with ao handsome an appar.tion. ? Ifl not enough that we find in thj catalogue "Fine impression; scarce, thoutrh the information la exact. The catalogue, by the way, contains one curioaity. Number M is tnterid as "Fernand Cortez." The compiler might plead prccedent, aiaee the sams print has been known unde- the lsma title on other occasions, but lt ii time for the ailly misnomer to be dropped. This is an engraving after that fuil length by Vclasquez in the Prado which evcryhody knows as the P<"'*r?'t of one of the buffoons of Ih.lip 18. "Don Juan of Austria," the sad Bfflfl jester was called, after the Bflffl* Lepanto, for some oecu.t reason Tha reason for calling this print 'rernand Cortflfl" is equally obeear* But wa will not quarrel with the cetaloguer, whose designations are tfenerally just, and especially so in tBOBS eaaea whera he feels encouraged tfl Bflal a note about the scarcity of a print or tha excel.ence of the impression. ^hou-rfl it, would be too much to ask a collec? tion of the kind to be one of dszzlinf gems, tho rarities and the prints of rxceptional beauty are surpnsingiy numerous. Again and again we ara confronted by some portrait waiea J8 a perfect example of the mezzot.nter'e art. Yet it is doubtful If this will determine the importance of the forth eoming sale. The great thing for?tha collector will be the chance to ' ...1 a vacancv," to restoro a Baiflfliaff Uae m his particulnr epic of the Revolution, to capture a long aough*. W a'hir.gton, or John Paul Jones, or John Ar.ira. We can imagino tho competition taflfl will be excited by, say. the "Sai II Adams" (No. 7). It ia not only et> ceasively scarce," but it is a BUIBBBJ bit of mezzotint. Other Interwting Collectlons Several other collect.ior.s are a* tha Anderson Galleries just now. Mr. Joba D. Crimmins ia offering some interest ing old views of New Vork. There ara Oriental objects of art ar.d other be lonpings consigned by Mr. Albert Ut tinger and from various estates. ina late A. M. Palmer's playbills and tha atncal portraits also make an amusina little exhibition by theaiaoI*rea nui the Hai.-ey prints come authnritativeif 1 into the foreground. They foreshadoa some further notable nceasior.s, 'oo, whon the early and eightee*-.- R century engravings and etchings are sold. The National Society of Craftrmaa is making an exhibition of coitumea and drawings illustrative of the art ot the theatre. Paintinga by the waflflB known old masters are shown at tafl Ehrich gallery. The Knoedler P-'er? presents pictures by Miai Florina Stettheimer. Sculpture b) at Bran cusi is at tha Modern gallery. TBfl Folsom gailery offers paintinga b? B?n* ington. Sully. Cazin, Willian M. Chaaa and others. Etchings and drawngs Bfl James McBey are at the keppei gal? lery. Rare views of old New Yetfl ana somo etchings and dry pom'- ?7 Dwight C. Sturges are or. exblbitiea at the Kennedy gallery. Water co.ora of English countrv homes and r*?'" by Charles E. Flower at the Braul gallery. Japanese woud cuts by oertna F. Lum at the Behwarta gallery. ar.a a bronze bust of President U ilson ?7 Jo Davidson at the Remhardt gal.ery. complete the week's calendar. PHILADELPHIAN BUYS 7 FAMOUS PAINTINCS McFadden's Purchase Called Ycar's Binnest Transaction London. Oct. II lt Ifl ?^?_SJ that John H. MeFaaden. the r*-*^ phia cotton magnate. has P? ?*??*? seven painfings by ' onstable bomney. Kaeburn, Morland. Craaflfl and ? .?"? All are rogarded as pictures of tM first rank. and the sale II ?n'ul'r*! the most important art transaction oi tho year. ^^^ John Howard McFadden la alll_8ti of the Philadelphia Art ( lab. and w widaly known for his eontributiona w medic.Vi research work. ln >?*???" endowed a laboratory la I.iverpool f?J the investigation of canrer. ne ii trustee of the Jefterson MajfleaTOBJ lege. in Philadelphia. and a *-*r?*?f'a2 ?pecial reM'arehea at the Royal b?-i? ara UoapiUl. LlTaiaooU -*}