New-York tribune. [volume], July 29, 1917, Page 5, Image 39

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fhe Immediate Causes and Earliest Phases of the War
T
MF '???.-st phase" of Frank H. Si
j?or.?is's "History of the Great
War" eontaini this (abridged) ac
-t#i the early ??ays of the war, setting
'"*" ,far!y the caUMS which directly led
eommencement of hostilities:
mtl 'he Archduke F rancis
[?jVaa? he'.r t? the Hapsburg- throne, by
mm%*mS m* rajevo. the Bosnian
F , , ? rved to bring back to
on suddenly and violentlv
, . ?ream of the Serbs, which, after
?ring 'l>! t*"*S centuries, was awak
mumph of Kumanovo and stim
><,. the iplendid victory on the Brcgal
?t ?as the sober judgment of not a
European statesmen that the Balkan
Y ?.ad created S WaTie state as dangerous
' the aggrandized Sardinia
L k ****? *b* **'"** of ***** ^MTees of Vien
* achieve the
^-uon and unity of the Mauthern Slavs
ve for the redemption
e bombs and bullets in Scrajevo
i prorrr' confirmation of this forecist.
?hway of the Serbians' dream
' ,*,, Archduk? Francis Ferdinand. It
?ao*n that he planned to try to rccon
. .j? Southern Slavs by seeking to satisfy
i. lUf-jniT for national unity within the
"Tj, by treating ? three-part empire in
a of the present dual kingdom. Alone
al forth as a strong man, ?
t?ifht conceivably save the shaken
f ...;?f ?A'hen Francis Joseph should die. j
["?m?vil must seem more than the insane
, ci mere schoolboys, something beyond
..?roteit against ??tupid and cruel tyran
''?r in removing the heir to the throne
lOltile country it eliminated an obstacle
?a* per;! to the Pan-Serbian dreams.
?. Austrian
jiatum
. ; Austria abruptly sent an ulti
jja to Serbia, in substance charging that
?eunent w::h responsibility for the mur
F.; the archduke, imposing conditions ^
\*\ -jnpunted to the surrender of Serbian j
[rj-adence and giving but a few hours for
pu. This was instantly accepted by Eu
Lgjs real challenge to Russia, and for
LtM time in five years the two great
?.-ja 0f European powers, the Triple AlH
paad the Triple Entente, stood face to
?:??? obvious possibility that war
M Well from the clash of rival purposes,
?.taore Russia, France and Great Britain
r? ?a one camp, Germany, Austria and
-astbly Italy in the other, and between
.-to lay tve old Question of European
yat of power.
i July, 191?. * **e***f considerable faction
:.*-s*a official life believed that only by
could Germany maintain her predomi
ut a Europe, and that a few years more ]
:?** would leave her far behind Russia I
?.??{ti.. Il resources and in allies. In
I *:e could count on Austria and, pre
miy, luly. ?*? feto years hence 3nd
Met might hive fallen -apart, but Russia,!
a-md and France were not likely to grow
uer.
he challente Austria issued to Russia,
a, was Germany's challenge. It was also
i own declaration of a determination to
:'. fcr her existence. Russia had enlisted
Hi ar,d Rumania on her southern bound
? Russia had promoted Slav aspiration**
U disloyalty in Austria. Now Russia must
*?i le lates itera
Fit to Print."
illjt *Xe?j JJ?rk ?Iiime??. EH?
?? ? l?u-?? f?c?A
r?. I ?1?? ? ??*?
faWL CAULAUXiS RUSSIA TELLS KAISERSHE WILL FIGHT FOR\ SERVIA; rreuwv nrri i ?,.'??<???, ? ?v ?w *:t s nr<r <un^< spreiDL-n
I REED OF MURDER AUSTRIA DF(T IffFQ war* ANTiUFR ACsFT) FMPFROR GERMANY DECLARES WAR ON RUSSIA, FIRST SHOTS ARE FIRED;
? AW3 COURT RIOT 'WTflsw FRANCE IS M0BILlZI? AND MAY BE DRAWN IN TOMORROW;
"\UJ?hRE*h ( <>*SCIE.\CE PRAYSGODFOR VICTOR} | pLANS TQ RESCUE THE ?00,000 AMERICANS NOW IN EUROPl
RULER* SACKIXG AI'STRtA ASDSf_-**1? in? ' HEVIEWCO SY CZAH lL __.... J. '_.***-_, ?_ I-I *- I?? ?-I- ?-_?
i f?-?-Ti-*v'iW-?-(>iiie*r,? CAT-*?t.ty ?i rnt?rt?y : r.t.w f^?*1
Cl?f R'-J-l I- f-rr-T R >r ) Prt^n.) fir. i
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.H?I?M??,III'IIWIIIW?Will?.??!.?? I ????N.-..W.?"
BTeuj ITor?i $_?_3__s ?Tribune
iRUSSIA INVADES GERMANY; GERMANY INVADES FRANCE,
?BUT DOES NOT DECLARE WAR; ENGLAND'S DECISION TODA Y;
BELGIUM MENACED, LUXEMBURG AND SWITZERLAND INVADED; I'OAR OF SIEGE GUNS
GERMAN MARKSMEN SHOOT DOWN A FRENCH AEROPLANE] WARNS BR?SSELS OF
-?ENGLAND DECLARES WAR ON GERMANY;
BATTLES BEGIN ON LAND AND SEA;
KAISER LOSES WARSHIPS OFF ALGIER.'
LATEST NEWS OF THE WAR.
O?Mt is h-Jr"*rg Back i Smmfmt T*mJ*nmi
fttcuit. G>min> b |
? **ir: r
?t? w m s***/** !
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IMs Bant a? t*
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Cm. Tit.? Stml P.. ? F*?w? ?.-.,.., i
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.... s? HUM ?Wl :?7JH.'';r?.: |0,l( swts lwlM""K ~3'5br*:v"r;--:
L???don Awe **-??.??
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ol Cinntan, ro??a ?2S 0*>0,(X)0 lar "?i???
EUROPE NOW ?AFLAME,
WITH FIVE NATIONS
IN SUPREME FIGH"
GERMANS' APPROACH ?
B?/lin. Auf 4 -Cm.nr r~lMd W ?Ji?l?*ld??tiraalum ??7 a?."? >t?l? ?/???? n?U."
illiie BaltJ? Il m Prog??*? Ne?? Com**? **?? <"K??,c?llo? >~?.*<.i C??m?n, ?,ll mm ?.?,., do?. ?? B.'?,?m wk... m.iiu-?.??? Kaj?I Refu-K*? lo R*?r**?t rW?'?? Nruiralii
Thai Foe He, State V ? a-nd J, I 'J.'^'^O it ? "T" f/'"*' "'",,"M "mU-m*?*'* "* *" ?^~0'*"* j and el 7 p. m. Bfea.? Olf Opt?
Shell*-,. Liej?. ,nH IMam? p.?. Ajf ( . p,,^ "^ -*,, 6?__?-. d.?l.r.h~ ?, -.,. u? ?,?. - | ??__ l*:'","lonJ
road,. T'n. c?*Kur? ol two G?.m?n w?r.h,p?. .-,.I'.dirtf ??? h??lll?-**u^?r Cmbm.. .? r*pari?d
B-u... . Au? 4 C.,r-.n. Ka, ,K.U?d I?.* B.,?-r?n Ulm o? N.?i :? ?nd L,.?. n?
j VADF. FRA?.'Ct AT MW POINT?
?COCVmiCI 4CT ?1M1 LTA.NtOi:SL
Inspection of the newspaper files for late July and early August, 1914, produces in one a curious sensation. The first war headlines stand
out now with uncanny and terrifying force. The long period of America's non-participation (sometimes pompous, insistently confident, yet
always a shade wistful) glimmers out, and those early headlines seem already summoning the whole world to Mars' appalling rendezvous.
leave Serbia to her fate, abandon her scheme?
to destroy Austria within and without; sh?
must publicly confess she could not aid het
weaker Slav allies or she must fight. Aus?
tria preferred to be destroyed by war rathe:
than by the attrition of intrigue.
If France and Great Britain stood with
Russia, her decision could not be mistaken,
If France and Russia were agreed to resist,
the result could hardly be different. But
British statesmen were unlikely to run the
risk of a German victory which would leave
Germany with her hands free to fight for
naval supremacy.
The worst phase of the July crisis was
that neither Alliance nor Entente could now
escape war without tremendous loss of pres?
tige. The challenge of Austria had been
made in such fashion that it left Russia no
choice between war and dishonor. The Ger?
man official utterance gave the thing the
value of an toon the Triple Alliance
and the Triple Entente.
It was the combination of all of these cir?
cumstances which made the Serbian crisis the
most serious Europe had seen since Bismarck
edited the fateful Ems dispatch and the
Franco-Prussian war resulted.
Although Serbia agreed to comply with all
but the most humiliating of Austria's de?
mands and to refer these to The Hague
Austria pronounced the Serbian answer un?
satisfactory, and on July 2* declared war
upon Serbia. The declaration of war auto?
matically removed from the field of diplo?
macy the possibility of composing the origi?
nal cause of the European crisis. It also
transformed a situation already grave beyonc? j
any this generation had known into one ol
peril almost beyond calculation.
It was still humanly possible that the con?
flict might be "localized,*' as the currenl
phrase had it. In other words, it was still
I ible for Russia to stand aside and per?
mit th" little Slav state of Serbia and
Montenegro, which owed their existence tn
her, to he worn down by the millions of
Austro-Hungarian soldiers, who were al?
ready advancing on Serbian foil.
Russia Was Expected
To Take a Part
But that Russia would do this remained as
inconceivable as it was on the day when
Austria made her first move. Nothing of the
meagre news that come from St. Petersburg
since that hour had warranted the slightest
hope that Russia would remain a passive wit?
ness to the destruction of two little states
bound to her by race, by religion and by
sentiments too deep to analyze.
And if Ru-sia did not suffer the destruc?
tion of Serbia, then Germany was fatally
drawn into the vortex by her obligations,
which were made by Bismarck, and through
the Trifle Alliance have preserved the peace
of Europe for more than a generation. With
Germany, Frunce, too, was involved. As sa?
cred and as binding upon France as upon
Germany were the terms of her foreign alli?
ance: .
England and Italy might stand aloof. In?
deed, there was every indication that they
would, for the present. Desperate efforts in
Rome and London were still being made to
"localize," to limit, to reduce the immense
1 area of possible conflict. But with whal
slightest prospect of success now, when ?thu
Austrian declaration had, in fac*. set the
match to the magazine?
The Austrian declaration of war precipi?
tated the final crisis. All eyes turned in?
stantly to Rerun and St. Petersburg, where
efforts were still being made to compose the
disagreement, which was now recognized a?
almost inevitably leading toward a general
war.
Russia met the the Austrian declaration of
war upon Serbia with a prompt order for par?
tial mobilization directed at Austria on the
same day, July It, It was clear at once thi.t
hope of peace w*as fast fading, for Russian
mobilization was bi.und to bg a signal for
similar action on the part of the other great
powers, (ierman**, relying upon the speed of
her mobilization to counterbalance the su?
perior numbers of Russia, when the Slav
army was at last mobilized, could not permit
Russia to gain in peace an advantage that
would be dangerous if war came.
In the days before war was actually de?
clared the position England would take re?
mained obscure. Not until the very end did
she publicly make up her mind. Yet long
before the invasion of Belgium supplied a
definite issue it was clear that the war party
in London was growing. Officially, however,
?ml with unmistakable earnestness, Sir Ed?
ward (?rey labored at St. Petersburg and Ber?
lin for peace. Throughout the critical period
his whole endeavor was to find a way by
which the Serbian dispute could be withdraw.i
from the battle ground of the two groups of
powers and relegated to diplomatic discus
lion by the powers not directly affected.
In this effort France and Italy joined loyal
ly. Neither desired war. Russia, too, frank
|] r.e.- nistic from the start, consented t?
accept any formula which should not involva
the destruction of Serbian independence
But as Russian championship of Serbia wa:
for Austria, in fact, a step toward the asser
tion of Russian tutelage over the Slavs o
the Balkans, and, indeed, of Austria herself
no mialdle ground was discoverable, whil?
, Germany steadily stood behind her ally. Il
must be the work of history to decide the
merits of the rival charges made after wai
began as to the responsibility for it; what. i>
necessary to record now is that in this period
it was England, still giving no official indi?
cation of her future Mine, who soucht to find
a way to bridge the ever-growllg gap between
Russian and Austrian purpose?.
Germany declareal war upon Russia on Au?
gust 1, following Russia's refusal to demob?
ilize. The next morning her troops were re?
ported in Luxemburg, where they promptly
took possession of the grand ?luchy. Mean?
while in London the suspicion of German pur?
pose to move against France by way of Bel?
gium was growing Franjo, in response to
an inquiry from Sir Edward Grey, had al?
ready agreed to respect the neutrality of
Belgium. Germany had merely agreed to re?
spect the integrity of the kingdom and reim?
burse it for any damage that might flow from
German operations in Belgium.
When Sir Edward Grey again asked for a
less "narrow" pledge the Briti-h Ambassa?
dor in Berlin was told that It was too late,
that German troops were already aero ?s the
frontier and that Germany had been com
' pelled to take such steps by "imperious ne
' cessity." The British government replied
? with an ultimatum, which called forth 'he
celebrated inquiry of the German Chancellor,
von Bethmann-IIolweg: "Was England to
make war for a mere 'scrap of paper'?" This
"paper" was the English pledge to protect the
neutrality of Belgium.
The First Great
Offensive
Meantime the world was hearing for the
first time of that great German offensive
through Belgium which was to hold its at?
tention for many weeks. The first news,
that of German soldiers in Luxemburg and
about Liege, all pointed to the adoption by
Germany of that flank attack which had long
been the subject of military discussion. That
Germany would disregard the neutrality of
Belgium and Luxemburg and seek to strike
France on the open northern frontier had
been the familiar prediction of the well in?
formed.
The whole purpose of this German offen?
sive was to make a quick and terrible thrjst
into the heart of France before France was
ready and before Russia could bring up her
armies on the Polish frontier?to "dispose
of France finally," as General von Bern?
hard! had said.
Belgian resistance the Germans had esti?
mated as worth little. Li?ge was a strong
furtress, but it commanded but one of seven
highways open to the Germans. The possi?
bility that the British army might be land?
ed in Belgium and come up on the flank and
rear was reckoned with, but held unlikely)
to influence the result of the campaign owing
to inevitable delays.
Before* England could move, while Franc?
was still mobilizing and concentrating her
efforts on the Alsace-Lorraine frontier, the
German offensive was calculated to pene?
trate into the heart o? France on an on
guarded frontier, to compel the retreat of the
armies facing Lorraine and to cripple France
so utterly that Germany could turn and deal
with Russia subsequently.
England Decides
For War
The British ultimatum to Germany was
sent on August 4. Already British fleets
and land forces were being put on a war foot?
ing, and it was unmistakable that the Belgian
invasion had served to supply a cause and a
willingness to fight hitherto by no means
generally discoverable.
The British ultimatum failed in its pur?
pose, and England declared that a ftate of
war had existed between Great Britain and
Germany since the night of August 4, out
twenty-four hours before Sir Edward Grvy
in tht House of Commons had delivered a
speech which finally demonstrated that Eng?
land ha?l made up her mind.
Ex.isperatingly inconclusive as were the
words spoken by Sir Edward Grey on Auci t
3 for those ?ho looked for a declaration of
war, there was no mistaking their import or
his cOnvirtion. They were heard by a House
already resolved upon war and they wdrc
1 translated to a waiting nation which had al?
ready made up its mind.
The decision of England for war had for
hours been recognized as inevitable. So long
as there was the smallest hope of preserv?
ing peace England's efforts ware, at they
were bound to be, almost frantic. Her sym?
pathies with Franco were real, her hostility
to a war which could bring no material bene
1 fits was natural.
But from the moment the conflict between
France and Germany became inevitable Ens
land's participation was certain. Franca de?
feated, Belgium occupied, Holland at the
mercy of Germany, Antwerp, "the pistol
j pointed at the heart of England," as Napoleon
named it, the base of German fleets, this was
a prospect intolerable to Englishmen.
England made war upon Germany, not be
| cause of real hostility to the Germans; in
I deed, her feeling was historically far kinder
j toward Germany than France; not because
j there was an/ direct cause for war, but be?
cause as she fought Napoleon and Louis XIV,
' she was to fight William II of Germany, a?
| the foe of the balance of power in Europe.
I In Germany victorious she saw the future
challenger of English supremacy at sea.
Of the value of England to her allies, one?
! she had enlisted, it is idle to speak. Shit
brought the mastery of the sea. Her armies
! were of doubtful value, but German harbors
were at once closed to food supplies by sea,
' the German flag disappeared automatically
from the high seas. France on her part
i could now deal decisively with the weak Aus
! trian fleet on the Mediterranean.
In the opening mavea France and Russia
? had plainly scored two tremendous triumphs
I in obtaining the aid of England and tha
1 promise of Italian neutrality. Unmistakably
this left Germany and Austria to fight against
odds, with the great army of Germany as tha
only real reliance. If it sustained its splen?
did .tradition it might prove adequate, as it
did under Frederick the Great for seven year?
with far heavier odds against it.
an .ya>////.-/F//m,F.,????.?.._.
Notable English Early War Comment
/pHE Review of Reviews," shortly]
after the outbreak of war, col- ?
lected 5ome interesting opinions
I follows:
PnfcBor Graham Taylor, in an article
* *."?.* Survey," which gives the result
f a ?pressions in Europe during the
-* fttrtsight of the war, i-aid:
*-' Socialists must be surprised at the
*~~?t ipectacle of this fratricidal strife.
*"-**, Social Democrat? in one army ?re
?t?f the Socialists of France, Bclrium
i? Estland in the army of the Allies.
? . However, it is only fair to remem
?"?ut the same feeling arises at the sight
US in a life-and-death struggle
I"** "Christians, Protestants against Prot-I
*****, Cathol.cs against Catholics, and the j
lex against the Holy Orthodox in
??tta? tmtioaal struggle . . ? The I
m*i this war was too sudden and severe ,
1 ?/thing to withstand. The Germt-n
?*****??, now, prove to be no exception."
?a* British laboring man's position in
*"*tt is v: ed most vigorously in "The
**** Daily Herald," edited by George
*~****ry, who. it will be remembered, a
^or to ago resigned from Parliament
'-.??test arainst the government's at-'
^toward woman suffrage. Mr. Lans
?Ibs urged a general strike of trans
h****n workers against the use of com
p-?*Uons for war purposes:
[-'??f protect against war is to he made
... workers who have il their
h* -a? control of traneport arid com
r^**a\\ ? I t?, allow then*, to bei
** -*r U eid which will cause untold
P?kteri?g, They must strike ??gairst
* ft? lshor leaders must act at once.
J* ** t.rtn to the worker the opnor
? at the very heart of
The weapon stands
-and. May they dare
/*** impre?si.e. editorial, "The Daily
^***" applien William ?fames'? urgency
**or*l ?quivalent '<>r a
^*]**m *** Still have an army, equipped
*T tAAtt, o*St tot ??* we fight,
??eh other, but our r-.mmon (?se -
tie lr
. tfcr? of !_?,, p-opl? that morale re
7* ?**>*. hare s'mx'mt?' It ?a not d.fTlriilt
,** ?***. rr.r,t?\ equivalent U Iles la the
T*** *' *? * tens? We most engesdsi
L
** ** Utter an-j eompellinf that men
will not endure wrong because they wou
regard it as sin. .We want to take that prii
the soldier feels in the possession of h
gun. that erect posture of body and so
which can be seen as the outcome of h
training, and substitute for it a pride in tr
tools of labor, bo they the minor's pick, th
surgeon's knife or the weaver's loom."
'?The Englishwoman," the most serious o
the organs of the feminist movement i
England, disrusses the war situation in th
same radical tone of race conscience tha
characterizes Mr. Lansbury's utterance;
In an editorial announcement, in the issu<
for September, the editors, who indudi
Miss Frances Balfour, Miss Mary Lownfie:
and other well known British feminis'
name?, inform us that the non-militan'
wing of the British suffrage worker?, "reo
ognizing that at the present moment the
fir.-t aim of all British subjects must be
to prosecute a just war to its appointed
end and to guard so far as is poaaible
against the poverty, sicknos and other
evils which every war brings in its train,
have decided to suspend for the present
advo-caey of the enfranchisement of women
and to i o?iperate as far as may be in the
general movement of women to play the
part of citizens."
"For the present," the editors of "The
Englishwoman" announce, their magazine
"will be need to give publicity, so far as
lies in its power, to forces, schemes and
relief work, and will endeavor
bo repr?-sent the opinions of the large num?
ber iif women who feel to the full the* h?i
jors of war, who ardently desire peace,
hut who yet would not buy it at the price
of honor." . . .
American Sympathy
In an o?lit?,rial "The Review of Rt
views" in November, 1014. observed:
"If American public opinion has sho?v
marked sympathy with the cause of the Al
lies as against Germany, it is not throup
any lack of good will for the German peopl
or friendly desire for the permanent wel
fare and prosperity of the German nation
It II because Germany seems to have over
played her militarism and unduly wir
shipped her ideal of the dominant Cermri
nationality, so that she has seemed to lo?<
a just tense of the sacredne'-s of other pe?*.
pie.?' right.? in the world. For example, then
is not the slightest indication that there It
a sinjrlo soldier, statesman, diplomatist
journalist or scholar in all Germany who be?
lieves for a moment that there is any sin?
cerity in the English pretence that the rights
of Belgian are what led Britain into the
war.
"All Germans seem to believe that England
ha: seized an opportunity to support France
and Kuasia in crippling Germany, with the
object of promoting British imperial and
commercial interests. In America feel'ng
for the cause <>f Belgium is so sincere and
deep that there arc many who believe thit,
under the Hague treaties, we should have
joined m formal protest against the vio'a
tion of Belgian neutrality. The motives
that impel natioits to war are not alway,
oaty to analyze.
"But the Germans are mistaken in failing
M attach value to the expressions of many
Englishmen who have felt it obligatory upon
England to stand by the guarantee of Belgian
. . . When sound and just insti?
tutions of world federation are e?tahlished
it will be desirable to multiply, rather th.?n
to diminish, the number of nations govern?
ing themselves while enjoying friendly rela?
tions with those about them."
A Wartime Family Circle
THOUSANDS o? soldiers are figfc
ii.g in the* trenches undrr the flue
Of Italy, France and England wh
had their he?mos in the United States an
?whoso faaattie are till Inn. "The Sur
vey" give-, us this little glimpse of a re
turned reservist and his family:
"W 'h la?t* 'hire mine unheralded to th<
I n???*?I States a *?'re,ux> of men from th?
French trench-??,, home tiir their first fur?
lough since the war began. For, European
born though they wore, home to them meant
????. There wer?? more than a
hundred of iht-m who*?* fa-milier. ha?l been
??.siting through all ?he?o months, and
only when the Boglleh ha?l taken over a
! \ergrf, ??-etion ?if the front could they be
[ ?paveo*?
"The tragedies of the war have come nearer
to us here in America in the last two year?
than we have perhaps realized. This group
of women whose husbands are fighting in the
armies of our allies is not a small one. In
New York alone there are POO families of
; Italian reservists ohtO have gone back to fight.
In the New York district, including New
? ?1 and New Jersey, there are still 600
French reservists1 families, though flnn others
have gone back to Fiance to live. The British
cniisulate in New York is caring for IM fam?
ilies in New York, New Jersey and Con?
necticut whose 'm<n' are on the other side
Ifhtiig,
"These families certainly de?erve sperial
nyrrpathy, for they have many of them faced
anxiety without kin or neighborhood tie? to
? comfort them.** |
Some Cartoons bv American Artists
Which Appeared in August, 1914
'.'//////S/////S///////tf/.-l/.
The Vision of H. G. Wells
Thii noted writer believed Germany would
be brought to her knees within three months
ON* AUGUST 4, 1914, through the
mediumship of "The New York
Times," H. G. Wells expressed his
\ "Vision of Armageddon." He said in part*
i
"At last the intolerable tension is over.
, Europe is at war. The monstrous vanity thct
was begotten by the easy victories of 1870-71
has chsll?*nged the world. Germany prepares
to reap? the harvest that Bismarck sowed.
? That trampling, drilling foolery in the heart
? of Europe that has arrested civilization and
darkened the hopes of mankind for forty
years Gorman imperialism and German ?ill?
; taritm has struck its inevitable blow.
"The victory of Germany will mean the
1 permanent enthronement of the war god ovei
all human affairs. The defeat of Germany
may open the nag to disarmament and peace
throughout the earth. To those who love
' peace there can be no other hope in the pres?
ent conflict than her defeat, the utter di?
ereditin-? of the German legend?ending it
i for good and all?of blood and iron, the su?
perstition of Krupp, flag wsgging, Teutonic
Kiplingi-im, and all that criminal sham effi?
ciency that centres in Berlin.
"Never wai a war so righteous as is the
war against Germany now; never any state
in the world so clamored for punishment,
but be it remembered that Europe's quarrel
is with Germany as a state, not with the Ger?
man people; with the system, not with 'he
race. . . .
If England Does Not Fight
She Will Be Humiliated
"The r?ile of England in the huge struggle
i is as plain as daylight. We have to fight, if
? only on account of the Luxemburg outrage. ,
i We have to fight. If we do not fight England ',
will cease to be a country to be proud of, and |
| we shall aerea a dirt bath to escape
from. . . .
"For my part, I do not doubt that Germany
and Austria are doomed to defeat in this
war. It may not be a catastrophic defeat,
though even that is possible, but it will be
a de'eat*. There is no destiny in the stars
and every sign is false if this is not so.
"They have provoked sn overwhelming com?
bination of enemies. They have underrated
! France. They are hampered by bad social I
?and military traditions. The German is not
naturally a good soldier. He is orderly and
obedient, but not nimble or quick-witted I
Hence, his sole considerable military
achievement is his not very lengthy march to
Paris in 1871.
"The conditions of modern warfare bave
been almost completely revolutionized, and
in a direction that subordinates massed fight?
ing and unintelligent men to the rapid initia?
tive of individualized soldiers.
What the Frenchman
Has Learned
"On the other hand, sine? those years of
disaster, the Frenchman has learned the les?
son of humility. He is prepared now som?
brely for a similar struggle. His is the grav?
ity that precedes astonishing victories. In
the air, in the open field, with guns and
machines, it is doubtful if any one fully real?
izes the superiority of his quality to the
German. . . .
."On the Kastern frontier the issue is more
doubtful, because of the uncertainty of Rus?
sian things. The peculiar military strength
of Russia, the strength she was never able
to ?ji-play in Manchuria, lies in her vast re?
sources of mounted men.
"A set invasion of Prussia may be a mat
ter of many weeks, but the raiding possibili?
ties in Eastern Germany are enormous.
"It is difficult to guess how far a Russian
attack will be directed by intelligence, how
far Russia will have to blunder very disas?
trously, indeed, before she can be put upon
the defensive.
"A P?us?ian raid is far more likely to
threaten Berlin than a German to reach
Paris. . . .
The End of the War Set Only
Three Months Distant
"All those issues will be more or less
definitely decided within the next two or
three months. By that time, I believe Ger?
man imperialism will be shattered, and it may
be possible to anticipate the end of the arma?
ments phase of European history.
"France, Italy, England, and all the smaller
powers of Europe are now pacific countries.
Russia, after a huge war, will be too ex?
hausted for further adventure. Shattered
Germany will be revolutionary. Germany will
be as sick of the uniforms and imperialism
idea as France was in 1871, ss disillusioned
about predominance as Bulgaria is to-day.
"The way will be open at last for all thete
Western powers to orfanu* a peace.
"That is why I, with ray declared horror
of war, did not sign any of these 'stop the
war' appeals.
"Declarations that have appeared in the
last few days are that every sword is drawn
against Germany. Now is the sword drawn
for peace."