New-York tribune. [volume], January 04, 1920, Page 9, Image 31

About New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924

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America Urged
To Save Europe
Bjr Credit Aid
Sir William Good? Says
Fate of Million? Rests
on Financial Help That
- Can Be Given by U. S.
Quick Action Necessary
Loans Given to Other Na?
tions Merely Palliatives
in Final Results, He Says
LONDON, Dec 19.?Sir William
Goods, British Director of Relief, who
recently returned from a tour of the
???impoverished countries of Europe,
declares that unless the Allied and As?
sociated governments provide credits
for food and raw materials Central
Europe is likely to become "a desolate
vaste of seeding thistles." England, he
declares, cannot do anything likely to
be effectual unless the United States
extends credits in proportion to her
means. The crisis, in Central Europe,
Sir Willi?? declares, is of such dimen?
sions and complexity as to defy iso?
lated or individual effort.
Speaking before the American
Luncheon Club recently h_ said: "You
cannot heal the wounds of Europe by
driblets of government relief or dabs
of humanity. The day for palliatives
is past. Emergencies such as that in
Austria will not wait for the emergence
of the league of nations. Little nations
?enerated by the self-determination in?
cubator of the peace conference are
likely to disappear even befare they
sr? old enough to sow their wild oats.
Must Have Cr?dita
"A comprehensive and far-reaching
financial arrangement must be quickly
arrived at by the Allied and associated
governments unless half of Central
Europe is to be a desolate waste of
seeding thistles. The key to the eco?
nomic arch is organization of credits
.or food and raw materials and the ex?
port of manufactures on a regular and
ascending scale from the countries re?
ceiving such credit.
"With the present value of the pound
sterling and with the present position
of French and Italian exchange it ie
evident that any such comprehensive
credit scheme will be futile unless th.
United States takes a generous part
<*reat Britain has already borrowed
in partnership with France and Italy
.-18.000,000 from the United States tc
feed Austria. I dare say we could bor
row more and further discount our owr
exchange, but that would be only pal
liative, which in the long run woulc
do neither Austria, ourselves nor th<
T-or'd any ?rood.
"It ia not a case of snying to thi
United States 'we will not do anythinj
more if you will not.'
'The fact of th<? matter ia that w
cannot do anything which is in th
l-sst likely to be effectual unless th
l-nit-d States is also prepared to ex
tend her credits in proportion to he
means. "It is no ?6bd being 'meal;
?_-Uth?d' about admitting that we, wh
before the war were rich, are now nooi
Personality, I am inclined to. thin
that th-j nations participating in som
such comprehensive scheme of credit
?ill in the long run suffer no materir
disadvantage.
World Is Threatened
"Of one thing I am quite certai
and that is if Central Europe and th
few nations are allowed to stew i
their own juice, the whole world wi
suffer. In any case, whatever remec
may be adopted, it will involve on bot
continents a demand for cemmon sacr
tice and for common stimulation i
production. To use Mr. Hoover's blui
expression: 'Europe must work i
starve.'
"I think I am authorized to say th
if the United States can see their wi
to take part in some such comprehen
ive provision of credits as I have su
gestd the British government and tl
British people will be prepared, and
think rightly prepared, to strain st
further the resources which bave be<
so impoverished by war.
"If that opportunity is not taken
am inclined to fear that the great r
lief work done by Mr. Hoover, of whi<
America is justly proud, will go dov
to posterity as a task only half dor
I realize that there are many difl
?ultles in the way such, for instan<
>* the unison of unofficial Americ,
financial effort with operations th
"ay be under the control of Europe;
?vernnients, but I have unwaveri
frith that these are not insuperabli
, Describing the conditions prevaili
w Central Europe as he observed th<
Jn his r?cent journey, Sir William co
tinned: "Locomotives from one ?ount
oared not badge across the frontier
?notier. Coal trains with their e<
6??? are liable to be sei_ed th? mi
"*? they come within the grasp of
??ighborlng army. The only real sa:
*"*? for a supply train going frt
??? country through another is t
.ri-enee of a lone British Tomraie wl
Perched on the caboose and knpwi
?o language but his own, placidly <
eorts the few exchanges of food a
-*?* ?ater?ais which have so far <
?Wed several of the countries to k?
???y and soul together.
Are Afraid of Old Foes
"P* n.ew A1,i*d ?states exhibit
s?rvons independence in dealing w
"?ir former ?Kmies with whom,
, ~*?>??r. they still are technically
*?'? Thi? constitute? one of the pi
-i_r 0?*t*c'?* to the restoration
M; ?-.?ilibrium of Central Europe.
? you had the whole British Ca
, ?A* wled into one superman, he wo
?^Powerless to achieve appr?cia
******** no long as by the delay
f?** a state of war prevaili in C
^1 Europe."
i .Jurf ?vjewing the enmities wh
-ton. a th* Ba???? *nd Turkey,
_M__y? ,*i<, that industrial and c<
2?9? aetivity virtually had b
?*?&** by political difficulties,
_?^__*?*** Production, d?moralis?t
___2*?,w_*-. traffl*' Mortage of ?
?0?? *nd finance.
C?eeho-lS?avakla, Poland, Hung
"r?.A_:i,tr'*_ h? declared, are all c
I_ . .Wlt" '?W ?hortages of f<
?'. al! Central European co
i2_- ih_* induction of cereals had b
?SS?* *t least one-third by lack
**%?. fertilizers and fodder.
*"? ?jester part of the $500,000
1?-2L0. *?&***?* wbich had been
_i*_uf lB_ ??ropeanu relief ?inca
rjwat ot the armistice was ?upp
H?* tf?1t?d States, Sir William s
??*?**? ***?" h* *<?ded, ?was Urn
__?_TV**1?-0?4 ??npty pors?. Never
-7a_?fa??ti*h ?ovemment was i
^Jljtj-1^00^00 toward relief in
KmB-% tTom ??dits to AIM??/'
I t_2____!"J,*m ?*id tJ,at it must no
I _______* , ?ot ? moment that not)
I ?2*1*'. **? being done. The Rep
F ?__rL*??*<'???>i?sion sitting at VU
?2 -__?** ??1-!* *? d?Nv? ??*1 ?O *
l*'__n__.?-_****M,# Europe. Other A!
M?A"* ??r? ?M?* i? ti.!*
I *m?Tf?SEPt f6od' ??taWir th? An
I 4L iff W -L0*4 Organization, ?a<
I |*5-^*r fin*Bc* l*f**ri?? to
I j aS^M Mtfcorltioa in Pari?
I J_^^r_^'??,** Pw??fo to bee-, in
E_-_?___?Iff ?*??-? a tr+jor \rtterGo\n**>
F* boavaao Su ??.? at ii<n
?Debacle Threatened While
Financial America Sleeps
Country Unprepared for Crisis in International Af
fairs That May Develop Swiftly; Federal Reserve
Board, Logical Leader, Fails to Act in Emergency
By Theqdore M. Knappen
WASHINGTON, Jan. 8.?How do they
d? it? is a question that financial stu
dents are asking in view of the fact
that the world bought about $8,700,000,
000 worth more from the United Stetes
in 1919 than it sold to it. It didn't
pay fojf any part of It in gold, for the
gold exports exceeded the gold import?
by near $800,000,000. Part of it repre?
sented realization on loans made to the
Allies by the United States, part of it
was represented in Red Cross expendi?
tures, part in various forms of relief
work, which were either1 clear gifts or
else on long-time credits, but a very
large part of it, probably 60 per cent,
represents foreign purchases of Ameri?
can products on some sort of private
credit extension.
Sir George Paish has come from Eng?
land to ask for Europe a "staggering"
credit?and yet, according to the sta?
tistics of exports and imports, it ap?
pears superficially that it is actually
getting it ?Iready, in large if not stag?
gering volume.
As the Optimists See It
The situation ia viewed pessimisti- ''
cally in some quarters and optimisti?
cally in others. The fact that, in spite
of the adverse exchange rate, the
United States continues to increase its
exports, is taken by the optimists to
mean that private agencies are solving
the problem of financing Europe; that
while the financial pundits have been
seeking some way to extend credits to
Europe, individual- bankers -and busi?
ness men have been actually doing it
in the ordinary course of business.
Certainly American traders are not
giving away billions of dollars' worth
of goods. Equally certain, they ar? not
getting goods in return for gold so
they must be getting debts from their
buyers. ?? It seems to be equally certain
that the debts must be long-time-debts.
If so, foreign buyers are overcoming
the handicap of adverse exchange, for
it is only the cash or short-time pur?
chaser who has to get together cheap
francs or pounds or what-not to buy
high-priced dollars. If this be the case
the magnitude of foreign purchases is
easily explained, and just because they
have been so extensive of late is taken
to be an excellent indication for the
future.
The foreigners have been rushing, ac?
cording to this theory, to get from us
on long-time credit the machinery and
materials they need for production.
With these they will get to work again
and resume production and exportation.
Having bought such vast volumes of
goods from us this year, they will need ?
less next year. We will buy more from
them and they will buy less from us, |
and the "favorable balance of trade"
will become much less. Thus, it would
appear, individual traders are settling
the problem of continued international
trade with the exchange market so ab?
normal.
The Pessimistic Vies?.
The pessimistic view is that the tre?
mendous foreign purchases from us
last year are like the purchases of
a man who involves himself hopelessly
in ?debt and mortgages everything he
has to keep his household and personal
expenditures going, knowing all the
time that nothing but a miracle can
save him, but being content to shut his
eyes to the ruinous future if he can
only keep going from day to day.
The same view holds that the Ameri?
can sellers have let the foreigners have
their goods with full knowledge and
understanding th&t the latter were
plunging with the recklessness of des?
peration, and have charged two or
three prices for their goods, besides
taking a chance on benefiting from
exchange if the transaction covered a
short period of liquidation, which it is
assumed had been the general rule. It
is further held that the American
venders have taken all the chances that
they care to, and that presently Europe
will be able to get no more goods here
?and yet is woefully short of the raw
materials and instruments of produc?
tion without which it cannot put its
people to Work.
The pessimists predict that when set?
tlement day comes there will be just
two ways out?either the European
buyers will have practically to repudi?
ate their American obligations in part
or in whole, or some collective effort
must be made in the United States to
finance the debts that have been in?
curred and make possible further com?
mitments. They declare that the day
of settlement is rapidly approaching
and that when it comes the world will
be confronted with the collapse of in?
ternational trade, which, of course,
means ruin for Europe and unparallel
distress for the United States. It is
pointed out that Europe as a whole
makes an essential part of its annual
firoduction of wealth by expending
abor on imported materials which it
exports in finished form. It cannot
support its present population on its
domestic production of materials. Its
wealth is in it? capacity for labor?in
its labor supply?rather than In its
materials. Unless it imports on a great
scale it cannot produce, and so cannot
export and turn its surplus labor into
wealth.
Europe's Position
Europe might be regarded ar a fac?
tory. It cannot send out finished goods
unless it takes in raw goods as well as
some finished goods. There is nothing
in the factory of itself to produce
wealth for its worker?. Europe has no
goods on hand?or not anywhere near
enough?to exchange for the raw ma?
terials it must have to start its produc?
tive machinery going and keep it going
until it does begin to produce a suf?
ficient volume to exchange for what it
must have. It has been buying des?
perately in the hone of getting a start,
but has not bought enough?and what
it has bought ha? been at ruinous
prices?and is now at the end of its
rope.
While it is well known that certain
bankers believe that the best way out
of the situation is for France, say,
practically to repudiate its private debt
in the United State? to the oxtent of
50 or ?even 75 per cent, measured in
francs, wipe the slate clean and start
I anew after a sort of international trade
bankruptcy, the general view is that a
determined and deliberate bankruptcy
by French business men is something
not to be thought of. On the other
hand, it is contended that there must
be studied bankruptcy, revolution?r)ly
enforced bankruptcy or carefully
planned financing of the situation by
the United States in some general way.
Dodgtng tli? Issue
Congress and the Treasury Depart?
ment are disposed to let thing? drift
or leav? them entirely to private ini?
tiative. The Fedoral Reservo Board
appears to be divided on the ?abject
At any rate, notwithstanding consid?
?rable pressure, it has procrastinated
and evaded the issu?. In fact, the pre?
vailing disposition in Washington has
been to ignore the ?ubject as some?
thing too unpleasant and rspellant to
think about, .
Mir G?org* Paish'? visit is ?xpected
, vo fore? ? ??r?o?? consideration of the
? international lyrebUtn and wok?, th?
MnaMHtfBMMMMaaUHs1
??? ?P to the impending crisis,
A? ?1 d?*c*ih*i hy some l.nancia_
authorities as being quite as serious in
its way as the war itself.
. One of them remarked yesterday that
just as we drifted aimlessly through
throe years of the war and then went
into it unprepared, we are now drift
!-__-_ ?Ward.?_ul international financial
debacle without doing anything to
avoid it. He expressed the fear that
our course n the financial emergency
will run truly parallel to our course in
w?P,--?it(?ithe ^ff ??ergency, and that
we will do nothing until we are ac?
tually pulled into the whirlpool, when
^?o7'U-P_ut ???h f,r?ntic, wasteful,
misdirected and largely foolish efforts
to pull ourselves and the rest of the
world out of the seething waters
The prevailing view here is that it
is useless to expect any Congressional
initiative in meeting the crisis, and
even those who are severest in their
denunciation of our drifting policy
are o| the opinion that the financing
should bo private rather than state.
Nevertheless, at the last, it is
believed that there must be some
sort of government guaranty behind
any great credit undertaking at this
time, if results are to be obtained.
It is argued that American investors
will not put their money into any
sort of paper based on European
debts unless they are assured that in
the last resort they can look to Uncle
Sam for protection.
Reserve Board Should Act
Surprise is expressed that t__e Fed?
eral Reserve Board does not take the
lead in getting the bankers, finan?
ciers and business men of the country
together for a serious and methodical
deliberation on the situation. The
board has come to be regarded as/the
national guardian of monetary and
financial stability and as the central
adviser, and counsellor <n such. mat?
ters. It is asserted that nothing else
will ?waken the country to the dan?
gers cf the hour so much as a diag?
nosis of them by the board, accompa?
nied by the announcement of a plan
for a conference or a series of confer?
ences to decide upon some definite col?
lective action by those who ?ro in au?
thority in the worlds of finance and in?
dustry. Members of the board fore?
saw the financial chaos that would fol?
low the war, and have watched appre?
hensively developments in Europe and
here ever since the armistice, and yet,
it is said in criticism of them, they
have stood by and let the United States
extend its credit inflation since then
by $4,000,000,000 for practically noth- ?
ing, while the whole structure of world j
trade is in danger of collapsing for
need of credit from the United Staaes. i
Cause of Inaction
The board's inaction is explained as I
partly due to timorousness in starting
something that it instinctively feels j
will be moat unpopular in the present ;
reaction in the United States against j
further extension of foreign entangle-i
ments of any sort, and partly due to ]
the fact that it does not care to take
the leadership in such a jrrave na-1
tional ?nd international; enterprise I
without the sanction of President WH- j
Bon, and it haB of course been impos-1
sible to bring the matter to his con-1
sideration.
Government Expert
Says People Oppose
U. S. Rail Ownership
Dr. Emory R. Johnson Says
Inefficient Operation of
Roads and Deficits Have
Created Wide Sentiment
Special CorretTOndenc*
PHILADELPHIA, Jan. _S.?According
to Dr. Emory R. Johnson, dean of the
Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania and one of America's
leading authorities on railroad trans?
portation, the financial salvation of
America's entire transportation system
depends upon the ability of Congress
so to harmonize two conflicting rail?
road bills now before it that when the
roads aro handed back to their owners
March 1 they will be assured of suffi?
cient revenue to make them attractive
to private investment. The only al?
ternative, he said, is government own?
ership.
Dr. Johnson's conclusions wero given
in an address at the university to-day
on "The Railway Puzzle." Dr. John?
son has been a government advisor on
transportation problems for every na?
tional administration since that of
President McKinley.
While admitting that Directors Mc
Adoo and Hines have done the best
they could with a difficult situation,
Dr. Johnson maintained that the rail?
roads as operated by the government
during the last two years were not
now a suitable investment. He ex?
pressed the opinion that Congress
would pass suitable legislation to make
them such. Dr. Johnson also declared
that the public, except the railroad
employees, did not favor government
ownership and operation, because
shippers and travelers had not been
so well served under government op?
eration as under corporate manage?
ment, and also because the govern?
ment, instead of making ends meet,
had incurred a large deficit.
Dr. Johnson said that the railroads
would profit after the return of their
lines by the precedent which the gov?
ernment had set in permitting termi?
nal and1 line economies which had been
forbidden the private owners beforo
tH? Wat*
Public Footed Bills
"Can the railroads be successfully
financed and operated when they are
returned to their owners? For two
years the government has drawn upon
the public treasury to sustain the
credit of carrier_; after the first of
March the companies must be self-sup?
porting or become bankrupt.
"If tho carriers uvoid failure their
ineomc must cover operating expenses,
maintenance and capital charges; if
tho companies succeed to tho extent
that is demande? in public interest,
they must not only be able to meet
unavoidable expenses, they must have
some surplus revenue. If there is no
Income to be used in part for better?
ments and in part for building up a
surplus or reserve fund, the nubile will
not invest in the railroads, their credit
cannot be reestablished and main?
tained and corporate ownership and
operation of the railways will fail.
"Tho incom* of tho carriers is de?
termined by public regulation, and
properly so? but from this it follows
that the country must decide betweop
a policy of ad?quat? revenues to tho
railroad corporation? o?.the futuro and
? policy of government ownership. I he
country-must have railroad tratispor
taUon, and il lactiMtrUa ?it to d?v?lop
and social conditions are to continue
to improve, the railroads must serve
the country with progressive efficiency
and adequacy. The United States can?
not stand ?till; it must go ahead, and
it must have the transportation system
that will make this possible. The car?
riers must be given the1 necessary
funds or the government must take the
place of the carriers.
Experiment Called Faiinre
"The country has had two yearB* ex?
perience with government operation;
and, with the exception of the railroad
employees, very few people want the
experiment continued. Free as the
people of the United States are with
government funds, they will not be dis?
posed to make an initial investment of
eighteen to twenty billion dollars in
railroads and to raise a minimum of
even 6 per cent of that sum?a billion
dollars? additional capital each year
to provide for betterment and exten?
sions.
"If shippers and travelers had been
better ' served during government ap
eration than they were during corpora?
tion management; if the government
had made ends meet, instead of incur?
ring a large deficit, the public might
possibly desire the continuance of gov?
ernment operation and might favor
ultimate public ownership of the rail?
roads; but the showing made by the
government in not encouraging.
"The inability of the government to
run the railroads with positive success
has not been due to incompetent mana?
gerial ability. Directors General Mc
Adoo and Hincs are men of great ex?
ecutive capacity, and they called to
their assistance skilled railroad offi?
cials. Nor has the war made success?
ful government operation impossible. I
The President was able to vest in the
railroad administration his practically
unlimited war powers; the government
was able to make whatever changes it I
deemed desirable in transportation j
methods and practices, and, at least
while the war was on, the public was
not disposed to question the govern-'
ment's acts.
"The limitations of government man- i
agement of transportation have been I
clearly revealed by the experience of
the railroad administration during the
last two years; tho service has become
less efficient, the number of employees
has been increased, wages and other
expenses have risen rapidly (partly be?
cause of the war and partly because of
political reasons), revenues have not
been increased to meet the enlarged
expenses and a large drain has been
made upon the taxpayer? to make up
annual deficits.
"The government is entitled to credit
for having given greater unity to rail?
road operation, both line and terminal.
It has done much that the carriers
were prohibited from doing. The pub?
lic now realize that cooperation of
the carriers in> the joint use of equip?
ment and terminals should be encour?
aged, instend of prevented. Past regu?
lation forbade many economies and
conveniences in transportation that will
in tho future be required of the car?
riers as a result of government opera?
tion, and it is m?fet fortunate that the
experience of the government has given
the public clearer views concerning |
the principles that should control the !
relation of the government to the car- \
riers. j
Discusses Pending Bills
"During the next few weeks the j
country will decide upon its future ;
railroad policy. The Senate and House
of Representatives will compose their
differences and permanent legislation ;
for the regulation of the railroads will
be enacted. The two bills now being
considered by the conference commit?
tees of the two houses differ funda?
mentally. The Senate bill is based on
the theory that the many existing
railroad linos should be brought to?
gether, within a reasonable time, into
twenty to thirty-five larg? permanent
competing systems of about equal
strength. Consolidation is to be vol?
untary for seven years; thereafter
compulsory, if necessary. The largo
railroad companies of the future are to
he Federal corporations, and their reg?
ulation, except as to rates, is to be by
;i Federal board of five members, whose
organization and functions shall be
strictly executive. The House bill per?
mits but does not require consolida?
tion. It is silent upon the subject of
Federal incorporation. The administra?
tive regulation of the railroads is to
be by the Interstate Commerce Com
mission, the membership of which is to
be increased from nine to eleven. The
duties of the Interstate Commerce
Co3iimission would be greatly increased
by the HoustTbill.
"The railroad legislation now pend
in in Congress must solve many diffi?
cult questions, but tho most critical
one is that of providing for the future
regulation of railroads in accordance
with a policy that will cause the car?
riers to secure revenue sufficient to
enable them to perform their services
adequately and with progressive ef?
ficiency. The railroad business must
be made, attractive to private invest?
ments or the country will have to
adopt government ownership and op?
eration of the railroads. There is no
other alternative."
Clarke Brothers Occupy
Tribune Corner Offices
Portrait of Horace Greeley Re?
tains Place of Honor on
Banking House Wall
Clarke Brothers, bankers, yesterday
held a formal opening of their new of?
fices in the Spruce and Nassau street?
Corner of the Tribune Building.
Tho corner has never before been
occupied by any but tho publication
offices of The Tribune. Intending to ?
maintain the traditions of the place,
Clarke Brother have placed in the
center of the wall opposite the tellers'
cages a large portrait of Horace
Greeley, founder of The Tribune. It
is flanked by two portraits of William
Clarke, who founded the banking house
in 1840.
Beneath it and within view of the
sidewalk on Spruce Street is a new
steel mob and burglar proof bank
vault. Us walls consist of three and
one-half inches of manganese steel,
with six inches of concrete outside of
that and eight inches of fireproof
brick enclosing all. According to
James R. Clurke, a member of the firm,
dynamite would have no effect on it.
The vault is further protected by
three time locks, Holmes Electric Pro?
tection and iron grill. A watchman
will be in constant attendance.
Representatives of leading banking
houses, newspapers and political or?
ganizations were invited to attend the
formal oponing. A buffet lunch was
served.
Bonus for Sailors
Naval reservists who are transfer?
ring to the active list to serve unex
pired periods of enlistment are receiv?
ing gratuities ranging from $130 to
$582. it was announced yesterday by
Commander F. II. Poteet, of the re?
cruiting station, 34 East Twenty-third
Streot. Commander Poteet has been
authorized to pay re?nlistment gratui?
ties ranging from $6 to $000 to honor?
ably discharged mon who re?nlist for
two or more years.
?
Dividends
Regular Declarations
Rato A Pay- StlthMrs
period abl.) of record
Alas. Oil 1 M..Jfcn.16 Jan. 5
Amnrkan Roll. Mill?. 76c, Q.Jan. 16 Dee. 31
do 6 ?.Jan.lfi Dec. Si
do ofd 1V4. O.Jan. 15 Dee.81
do, debenlur?. 1%. Q.. ...Tan.16 Dec ?it
Carbon Hteel, 2, Q..Tan.16 Jan.in
do, l.t pfd. 4. 8-A.Mar.80 Mar.ac
do, Sd pfd, 8. ?.Julyao July28
OIL HtV.v (bUrs. f?n), <6.ic, M.Feb. .1 .Ian.16
Heron!*? Petroleum, 1, M.Ian.16 Jan. 6
Mohawk Mlnlnffj?l.SO, Q.Kob,2 'I*"'1?
nspubllf! Oil & TOifln,. 2. ?...Jan.10 Jan. 1
Nor. ftal-n Vow., pfd, 1%, Q..Ian."0 Doa.31
T?x?a chief OH. 1V4. M..Jss.j?0 Jan. s
> Mut. ?it. of HossvtlU. ?jfi. ~..Jan?Sl Jau.M
Britain Is Warned
To B? Prepared for
Another Great War
General Sir Louis Jackson
Urges dose Study of All
Lessons of Recent Con?
flict; Favors Use of Gas
Farot?n Pro?? Jtmroam
Sow York T risan?
LONDON, Doc 15,?In ? paper on
'The Possibilities of th? Next War,"
read at the Royal United Service In?
stitution yesterday, Major General Sir
Louis Jaskson suggested that thero
would be ? roturo to open warfare,
says "The London TimeB." Mechani?
cal transport would influence most
deeply the tactics of the future. Gases
which killed painlessly might be used.
Air fighting would be enormously de?
veloped. The long rifle would be suc?
ceeded by a short carbine, and artil?
lery would be much more mobile.
Lord Peel, Under Secretary for War,
presided, and among those present
were Field Marshal Lord Methuen,
Lieutenant General Sir Herbert Miles,
Major General Sir Francis Bond, Major
General E. D. Swinton, Major General
Sir W. H. Hirkbeck, Sir R. H. Brade,
Major General E. C. Donald and
Colonel F. C. Stone.
General Jackson said his object was
really to arouse controversy on certain
points. It was quite clear that we
were on the eve of the most extensive
modifications in the art of war known
to history, and the changes made in
the recent war were only the begin
iing. It was necessary to develop new
arms with the knowledge that the na?
tion which best did so would have a
great advantage in the next war.
There were people who were crying
for a reduction of armaments and who
declared that another war was a? Im?
possibility Just as, six years go, they
declred wwr with Germany was an im?
possibility. In future wars wo should
be exposed to much greater dangers
than in the recent war. And Ger?
many had not refrained from saying
that she hoped for revenge some day.
Sees End of Tanks
He believed that one of the greatest
developments in the art of war would
be brought about in mechanical trans
Eort. The tank was a freak which had
een called into existence by excep?
tional circumstances, which" were not
likely to recur, and which if they did
recur could be dealt with by other
means. The outstanding feature of
the tanks had been that they had made
mechanical transport independent of
the roads. That was going to influ?
ence most deeply the tactics of the
future. If the whole of the transport
of an army was carried by vehicles
with caterpillar wheels it would be
independent of the roads.
There would be no long column of
transport, but it could advance in
open order on a broad front carrying
guns, munitions, supplies and men. At
the san* time fast cars and motor?
cycles would be useful for sudden
blows at long distances.
Favors Use of Gas
With regard to the use of gas in
future wars, he said that there was no
more reason to forbid its use than to"1
forbid the use of rifles. There were
gascswhih killed painlessly and it was
easy to conceive cases in which it
would be more humano to use gas than
explosive shells. That was especially
the case with punitive expeditions that
no gas should be used which would
cause unnecessary suffering. Com- !
mercial progress and prosperity in the :
20th century would depend on chem?
istry, and chemical productions mu3t
have a great effect on all future war?
fare.
It was in the air that we were face
to face with the problem of the fu?
ture. It was in the air that we had
had the most important advance in the
art of the war. We need not trouble
ourselves yet with flying destroyers, !
or flying concrete forts, but in twenty
years' time the Air Force Estimates ;
might be the most important part of
our preparations for war. Bombing '
and reconnaissance machines would be
developed by commerce, for the ma?
chines used in commerce could easily
be adapted for war purposes, and
civilian pilots could be taken over with
the machines. For fighting machines
special types were required and highly
specialized military training was nec?
essary for the personnel.
For both machines and the men to
man them that side of flying must-be
developed by the government. One re?
sult of a return to open warfare would
probably be that bombers Would not ;
have the same targets near the front
of the armies and would secure better
results by going farther afield ond
bombing the centers where munitions
were manufactured, stores were ac?
cumulated and troops were trained.
For Better Liasson
Dealing with the liasson service, he
pointed out that there was much room
for simplification, and the open war?
fare of 1918 had led to the elimination
of some forma of communication which
had been used ppreviously. Wireless
telegraphy would be the principal
means of communicating with aircraft
and a development of the electrical
listening posts used in trench war?
fare, a ground wireless system would
become the standard means of commu?
nication between advanced infantry
and the headquarters controlling them.
He believed also that smoke and light
signals, a pillar of cloud by day and
a pillar of fire by night would be used
by troops to show the positions they
had reached.
There had never been a war in which
such an extreme variety of weapons
had been employed. The long rifle had
seen its day and should be replaced
by a short carbine which would be
accurate up to GOO yards. Each man
should also carry a good dagger which
might be attached to the carbine like
a bayonet. He did not think the au?
tomatic pistol would survive, and ho
was not sure that the grenade would
not also go, if they assumed that
in future they would have open war?
fare.
The soldier of the future must be
absolutely different from his predeces?
sor. The days had.gone by when in?
itiative was considered not only un?
necessary, but dangerous. In addition
to his rifle, he should be able to handle
a Lewis or machine gun, and to help
the artillery. He should know some?
thing of explosives, have a knowledge
of fuses, understand signalling, and be
capable of handling a ground wireless
set. He should receive Intensive train?
ing and really good instruction.
Business News
;.-.-:-?-\
RENEWAL of the $40,000,000 Belgian acceptance credit, coupled with the
stiff rates for call money, caused another increase in the rates on bank?
ers' acceptances last week, bringing the quotations of dealers up to a 5%@5
per cent basis for bills maturing in ninety days. The market continued to be
held in check by the high rates on Stock Exchange money, but, with antici?
pated easier rates now believed imminent, an increase in the buying by banks
!? expected. As on previous weeks, the Federal Reserve Bank was the main
factor in the market, its basic buying 'rate being 5 per cent. Rates quoted by
leading dealers follow:
Ninety Sixty Thirty
Spot delivery: days days days
Eligible member banks. 5*s@5 5%@5 5%@4T?
Eligible non-member banks. 5%@5tt 5%@5 5V*'@4T*
Ineligible bank bills. 6 ?SB1.* 6 @5S 6 ($5%
For deliver^ within 80 days:
Eligible member banks. 5** bid
Eligible non-member banks_ 6% bid
Ineligible bank bills. 6 bid
Dealings in the commercial paper market last week also were greatly re?
stricted by the high call money rates, and local banks refrained from increas?
ing their obligations only in case where the borrower was a regular customer.
The country banks were the principal buyer? in the open market.
COTTONS?Converters
Unable to Obtain Supplies
Converters of cotton goods in need
of gray or unfinished fabrics for print?
ing, dyeing or bleaching cannot ob?
tain sufficient supplies for their imme?
diate needs. Spot goods are scarce and
gray goods brokers report that most of
the Eastern mills are refusing to ac?
cept orders even at present high prices.
The majority of Eastern mills, according
to their agents here and brokers who
-buy from them, have orders running
into April, but will be ready to take
on more business for .later months
within a short time.
Deliveries of goods that should be
coming through now are delayed. Pro?
duction at the mills is scarcely above
70 per cent of the old normal, and
most mills are behind their schedules
at present. Yarn spinners are further
behind their delivery schedules than
the weavers, despite the establishment
and enlargement of spinning mills.
SILKS?Small Jobbers
Offer Goods at Concessions
Some o? the smaller ?Ilk jobbers who
plied a brisk and profitable trade up
to * month or so ago are now offer?
ing silks a? prices from 10 to 25 per
cent below the present market levels.
These jobbers are not overloaded, and
their price sacrifices are purely the re?
sult of their financial inability to carry
these stocks. This condition, in con?
junction with the fact that larger job?
bers aro taking everything they can
buy at full market prices and that re?
tailer, garment manufacturers and
jobbers from other cities are showing
a disposition to operate at high price
levels, forms paradox in the trade.
Some of the largest mill owners are
inclined to regard the present situation
as precarious and are looking for im?
portant developments within the next
weck ?r two. Large jobbers, however,
are optimistic, and while few of them
predict more of the sharp rises that
the market has seen in the past six
months, they feel that present prices
will hold for some time to come. One
of the largest jobbers in the trade said
yesterday that he was willing to oer
ate to the fullest extent of his finan
; cial ability for tho next six months, but
; that unless conditions showed a ma
i terial change at the end of that time
j he would take steps to place his busi?
ness on a conservative basis. ?
LEATHER?Tanners
; Buying Hides in South America
American tanners are placing large
? orders for South American hides in
' Buenos Ayres to be delivered when
j conditions permit. It was said yes
j
j New Power Plans Are
I Rumored at Niagara Falls
Old Love Canal Scheme To Be
Revived by Westinghouse Co.,
Is Current Report
NIAGARA FALLS?Rumors of new
power plans are in circulation in Ni?
agara Falls, but none has been verified.
One rumor is that the Niagara Falls
Power Company will build a tunnel or
power canal from the upper Niagara
River at the easterly city line along its
Niagara Junction railway line to the
| north end of the city and thence down
n newly acquired right of way to
Lewiston Heights, where, it is said, a
new power plant is planned to utilize
the diverted water for power develop?
ment. .
Tho company is said to have ac?
quired a right of way from the north?
erly end of the Junction railway north
to the point where the Lewiston hill
meets the lower Niagara.
The second rumor is that a power
canal is planned paralleling the mili?
tary road from La Salle to Lewiston
Heights. William Baker, a Falls real
estate man, is said to have secured
options on a strip of land in that lo?
cality for the Westinghouse Electric
Company. Ail the power interests op?
posed to the Niagara Falls Power Com?
pany are behind the scheme, which is a
revival of th? old Love canal proposi?
tion, said John L. Harper, chief engi?
neer of the Niagara Falls Power Com?
pany- ... ?-?*..
The third rumor is that the Westing?
house interests are planning to acquire
the Niagara Gorge railway right of way
or the power rights of the company, or
both, in the lower Niagara district. The
Niagara Falls Power Company has re?
cently denied that it acquired the
gorge.
All the plans and schemes are con
! tingent, it is said, on Washington ne
i gotiating a new powor treaty with the
Canadian government which will in?
crease the water diversion above-the
I falls on the American side. The di
I version is limited now to 20,000 cubic
i feet a second.?Buffalo Express.
Corn Was Ancient Food
Missionary Declare? Grain Was
Grown Long Ago in China
Theories that corn is only a product
of tho Indians of North America re?
ceived a severe blow when a communi?
cation was received from Miss M. Mon
inger, a Marshalltown (Iowa) woman
engaged in missionary work in Hai?
nan, China.
She graduated from Gnnnell m 1018
Miss Moninger states that corn is now
being grown and used by the highland
tribes, and tradition shows that its us?
dates back to primeval times.
The Grinncll College botany depart?
ment has received the most complete
collection of Oriental plant specimen?
in the United States, the gift of Mis?
Moninger.?Nyack Evening Journal.
terday that during the last few days
orders had been placed for o ."er 100,000
ounds of La Plata and Buenos Ayres
ides. Domestic winter hides have
never been purchased as freely as this
season. This is owing in part to labor
trouble in the South American ports,
which is holding back large quantities
of raw stock.
Packers in this country are refus?
ing to quote prices on future ship
mentsj and likewise the tanners will
not give prices on light solo leather
for future delivery. Recent exports
of both hides and leather to France,
Scandinavia and Italy have helped ma?
terially to reduce stocks here. It is
felt that the demands for leather from
Europe will be enormous when the ex?
change situation assumes a more nor?
mal aspect because of the shortage of
footwear abroad.
iJEWELKY?iopan
Buys Clock Steel Here
Several large consignments of iron
and steel materials used in clock
making were exported yesterday to
Japan by one of the large local clock
factories. Before the war England
and Switzerland almost entirely sup?
plied the tin plate and springs from
which the ? time pieces were made.
After the outbreak of the war, how?
ever, when European supplies ceased,
limited quantities of wires and springs
Were received from the United State
and proved thoroughly satisfactory.
Since that time relations between
American and -Japanese firms have
been strensthened greatly and large
shipments of clock materials are be?
ing sent to that country from time
to time.
Japan, according to leaders in the
local clock-making Industry, is rapid?
ly becoming a real factor in the manu?
facture of timepieces. The industry
in that country grew out of the at?
tempt of a native to duplicate a clock
brought to Japan in 1873 In 1886 this
man succeeded in making two clocks
that could be regulated fairly w?l)
and kept good time. In the following
year a clock factory was established
in Nagoya, but it was not until 1890
that its products were put on the
market. In 1891 three more factories
were opened, and at pre.ent there are
nineteen factories in Nagoya, employ?
ing about 2,000 people, devoted to tho
manufacture of various kinds of wall,
mantel and alarm clocks. About 75
per cent of the clocks manufactured
in Japan are turned out by factories
in Nagoya, with the remaining 25 per
cent coming from Tokio.
The clocks of different varieties
reaching this country from Japan cost
the importer from $18 to $55 per
dozen. Large amounts of the cheaper
varieties are being exported by the
Japanese merchants to China and the
South Seas.
i Argentine Refuses to Send
Its Sugar Surplus Abroad
BUENOS AYRES, Dec. 3.?There ap
t_>
pears to be little chance that the
United States or any other country
suffering from sugar^shortage will re?
ceive any help for some time to come
from Argentina.
The sugar growers of Tucuman, the
principal sugar producing province,
appealed recently to President Irigo
1 yen, saying they had a surplus of
50,000 tons and asking him to revoke
the decree forbidding exportation. La
Jior organizations raised a protest, de?
claring that exportation would result
In an advance in the price to domestic
consumers and saying that the sur?
plus which the Tucuman growers had
President Irigoyen announced that he
would not revoke the decree.
Now comes a report from the Di?
rector of Rural Economy and Statistics
estimating that this year's sugar har?
vest will amount to 260,000 tons and
saying that while there will be a Bur
plus of 52,154 tons, it should be re?
tained in this country as a reserve
stock.
? ' i ?.?' i
Business Troubles
Petitions in Bankruptcy
Petitions in bankruptcy filed In the
United States District Court yesterday
were as follows:
JACOB LEVIN?An Involuntary petition
was filed against Jacob Levin, 931 South
st., Peeksklll, N. T. Liabilities and assets
not stated. Principal creditors are Tllkln
A Zlffert, $1.0; J. H. Smith Co., ?319; Ed?
ward Korn Co., $90. Petitioner's attorney,
Leonard Bronner, 309 Bway.
WILLIAM A. LENNON?Voluntary peti?
tion filed by William A. Lennon. Kings?
ton, N. V. Liabilities, ?1,465; assets $25.
Principal creditors. John Burke Import?
ing Co., $149; Grace J. Gray. $196; Thomas
Ward & Co.. $126. Petitioner's attorney.
Lewis H. St.ant.on, Monticello, N. Y.
FREDERICK C. KIN??Voluntary peti
I tlon by Frederick C. King, 69th st. and
6th av. Liabilities, $38,623; assets, $360.
I Principal creditors. Secor & Bell. $11.368:
Ohio Savings & Trust Co.. representing an
I action on promissory notes given by alleged
' bankrupt, $26,779. Petitioner's attorneys.
! Hamilton & Freeman, 100 Bway.
Schedules in Bankruptcy
Schedules In bankruptcy filed in the
United States District Court yesterday
were as follows:
HARDWARE & SUPPLY CO.?Schedules
of Hardware ?_ Supply Co., 205 Canal st..
show U'abllities of $32.473 and assets of
$10,500. Principal creditors, H. A. Sand.
ers, $2,408; Standard Tool Co., $904; Toi?
ling Bros.. $735. P.tlt'onerVatto.ney. Ben?
jamin Weiss, 2T1 Bway.
Paris Market Firm
PARIS, Jan. 3.-<-Prices were firm on
the Bourse today. Three per cent?
rantes 69 francs. Exchange on Lon?
don, 40 francs 95 centimes. Five per
cent loan, 88 francs 85 centimes. The
dollar was quoted at 10 francs 76*_i
centimes.
London Money Market
j LONDON, Jan. 3.?Money, 5 per cent;
discount rates, short and three months
bills, 5% per cent; gold premium at
Lisbon, 140.
I
Volume of Stock Trading
;-1019-?>
Railroad Other All
?tocka. atoeke. at??ck?.
?anuary . 1,0"?,8?0 10,858,900 11,901,700
February .,. 1,079,400 11,232,000 12,311,400
March . 2,321,600 18,996,600 21,318,200
AprU . 3,401,700 26,212,600 28,614,300
May. 6,017,600 29,426,600 34,443,600
Jon? . 4,001,200 28,862,800 32.864,000
July ." 8,312,400 30,169,600 36,612,000
Antut . 4,418,600 20,023,100 24,441.600
September . 4,019,100 20,133,800 _ 24,153,700
October . 8,871,200 31,620,000 ^ 37,391,200
November. 6,101,900 26,080.400 30,191,300
December .*. 4,887.600 20,97?100 28,861,700
Railroad
?tocka.
1,710.900
1,021,700
1.703,000
669,100
3,226,700
2,114.100
801,400
1,223,600
1,191,300
3,282,600
3,283,000
2.411.200
Totals...? 48.476.700 ?72,628,000 619,004,800 ? 2,587,600
123,806,900
England Av?rts
Threatened Famine
Of Hard Currency
Protective Measures Prevent
Hoarding or Melting of
Silver Coins; Worth More
t as Bullion Than Money
Now York Tributo
Europ?en Bureau
LONDON, Dec. 15.?The price of sil?
ver in England has crept up to above
$1.50, more than 20 cents above par,
and the market position continues to
cause anxiety to the authorities. Conti?
nental domestic trade has been greatly
hampered by the premium on silver
metal and the consequent hoarding of
fractional coins.
It is some months now since evi?
dences of an insatiable demand for sil?
ver from China and the East mani?
fested itself. The British Treasury au?
thorities recognized the probability of
the continued growth of this demand,
coupled with the clog on production in
Mexico and elsewhere, and that it
would lead to exceptionally high prices
for the metal and that somo prepara?
tion must be made to meet a probable
silver emergency.
Prepare for Emergency
The Chancellor of the Exchequer,
therefore, caused an issue of --shilling
paper notes to be prepared in advance
The price of silver continued to rise,
an acute famine existed on the Conti?
nent, and an issue of half-crown notes
i about <<0 cents, par value) w_s also
?truck off*. Neither of these issues has
been circulated.
The famine in small change has been
severe on the Continent; England, it
has so turned out, has not been as
seriously affected as had been feared,
for this country has always been the
center of the silver mart, and haa
provided enough silver for trade here
before passing the balance of the avail
able supply along to the Continent,
France has been compelled to retort
to extraordinary measures, such as
the use of brass and aluminum checks,
issued by private business houses and
caf?s In lieu of silver change, and
pcceptcd by them at face value In ex?
change for merchandise. England has
taken precautions, but so far has not
felt the shortage as severely as her
neighbor.
Little Meltfing In England
Theoretically, when the price of
silver reaches $1.32 an ounce in the
London market, it becomes profitable
to melt down silver coin; when this
quotation was reached about the 1st
of November considerable excitement
was caused; rumors of grest hoardings
and meltings were freely circulated,
and trades-people tried their best to
avoid giving silver change. Obviously,
the melting of coin, in actual fact,
would not be a paying proposition
until the price of silver reached at
least $1.40. This latter quotation wa
reached, and passed. Silver went
above $1.50. Reports were received
daily from the Continent of the arrest
of travelers who were fi'.emg with
silver for the Swiss border and a pri?
vate smelting works. But nothing of
the kind occurred in England; there
was no wholesale melting of silver
coins, nor did hoarding take place to
the anticipated extent. The shortage
is apparent to the financial expert} to
the man in the street it is not.
The reasons for Britain's successful
avoidance of a silver crisis are many.
Efficient government handling of the
proposition and failure to give way
to hysteria are two of them. The gov?
ernment issued a regulation making it
a serious offense for any one to melt
down coins; the metal In florins and
half crown pieces, as well as in the
smaller coins, is now worth consider?
ably more than the face value of those
pieces; with n premium of about 20
per cent on silver it would have been
highly profitable to melt large quan?
tities of coins and sell the metal in th?
open market. The regulation has ef?
fectively stopped such practice in Eng?
land. On the Continent more difficulty
was experienced in preventing the
melting of silver coinage, because of
the greater premium on silver due to
the greater depreciation in exchange
rates. It became necessary In France
to prohibit travelers from taking more
than a stipulated sum in silver coins
when thev crossed the border.
Another way in which the public can
embarrass the government during a sil?
ver shortage is by hoarding coins. This
always h^s been done on the Continent.
The French peasant is an insatiable
hoarder. Yet even in the present crisis
in this country there has been no
hoarding on an injurious scale. A little
there probably is, but the Englishman
is ndt a hoarder by nature, ana this as?
pect of the question is not taken by the
treasury to be the most serious. Up to
the present appeals in the press and in
Parliament to "keep small change mov?
ing quickly" seems to have produced
the desired effect.
A Favorable Factor
What the treasury is most concerned
about is the fact that silver prices are
now over 20 cents per ounce above the
price at which the mint can produce
coinage without suffering a loss. A re?
newed rise in silver would immediately
enhance the dangers from melting and
hoarding, but a favorable factor in the
situation is the existence in the Bank of
France, of an enormous quantity of sil?
ver francs, capable now of being used
profitably in the open market. The
acuteness of the situation was further
relieved by the recent break which took
place early in December on the news
that the United States Government was
prepared to supply broken up silver
dollars in exchange for gold dollar. .
Further movements of the New York
exchange against the pound sterling
have almost eliminated this gain. The
release of American dollars, which were
melted down . nd shipped to India, ha?
had a beneficial effect, because it re?
leased that much stiver for the rest of
the world.
The native of India has the utmo.t
aversion to any sort of paper money
and will not accept it under any cir?
cumstances. He uses silver as cur?
rency, but will also accept gold In
payment for his work. But he imme?
diately hoards the gold, or melts it
down into ornaments. Thus, India has
become a great chasm to fill. Similar
feeling exists in China and is spread?
ing, hence the recent heavy demands
from the East for silver.
At present a movement is on foot
in India to overcome this aversion to
paper money. Several of the best
known and " . trongc.t banks are to
combine and they will be given note
issuing powers. It is hoped, by show?
ing the public that these strong banks
are behind the money, to gain popu?
larity gradually for paper notes. The
present premium on gold traces its
origin largely to this Indian aversion
to paper currency.
England's currency is so constructed
that an immen.e quantity of silver
coin is needed?probably three times
the amount required for a similar vol?
ume of business wjth the American
system. There is no paper money
smaller than the ten shilling note?
equivalent to nearly $2.60 at par
value. If a customer in a store buys
one shilling's worth of goods and ten?
ders n ten-shillin? note in payment
he must receive silver or copper change
quivalcnt in value to ni?._ American
?uarters. It wr*Nld be decidedly prac
icable to issue ?, e-slnlling notrs were
t not for the public aversion to paper
noney.