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To Save Europe Bjr Credit Aid Sir William Good? Says Fate of Million? Rests on Financial Help That - Can Be Given by U. S. Quick Action Necessary Loans Given to Other Na? tions Merely Palliatives in Final Results, He Says LONDON, Dec 19.?Sir William Goods, British Director of Relief, who recently returned from a tour of the ???impoverished countries of Europe, declares that unless the Allied and As? sociated governments provide credits for food and raw materials Central Europe is likely to become "a desolate vaste of seeding thistles." England, he declares, cannot do anything likely to be effectual unless the United States extends credits in proportion to her means. The crisis, in Central Europe, Sir Willi?? declares, is of such dimen? sions and complexity as to defy iso? lated or individual effort. Speaking before the American Luncheon Club recently h_ said: "You cannot heal the wounds of Europe by driblets of government relief or dabs of humanity. The day for palliatives is past. Emergencies such as that in Austria will not wait for the emergence of the league of nations. Little nations ?enerated by the self-determination in? cubator of the peace conference are likely to disappear even befare they sr? old enough to sow their wild oats. Must Have Cr?dita "A comprehensive and far-reaching financial arrangement must be quickly arrived at by the Allied and associated governments unless half of Central Europe is to be a desolate waste of seeding thistles. The key to the eco? nomic arch is organization of credits .or food and raw materials and the ex? port of manufactures on a regular and ascending scale from the countries re? ceiving such credit. "With the present value of the pound sterling and with the present position of French and Italian exchange it ie evident that any such comprehensive credit scheme will be futile unless th. United States takes a generous part <*reat Britain has already borrowed in partnership with France and Italy .-18.000,000 from the United States tc feed Austria. I dare say we could bor row more and further discount our owr exchange, but that would be only pal liative, which in the long run woulc do neither Austria, ourselves nor th< T-or'd any ?rood. "It ia not a case of snying to thi United States 'we will not do anythinj more if you will not.' 'The fact of th<? matter ia that w cannot do anything which is in th l-sst likely to be effectual unless th l-nit-d States is also prepared to ex tend her credits in proportion to he means. "It is no ?6bd being 'meal; ?_-Uth?d' about admitting that we, wh before the war were rich, are now nooi Personality, I am inclined to. thin that th-j nations participating in som such comprehensive scheme of credit ?ill in the long run suffer no materir disadvantage. World Is Threatened "Of one thing I am quite certai and that is if Central Europe and th few nations are allowed to stew i their own juice, the whole world wi suffer. In any case, whatever remec may be adopted, it will involve on bot continents a demand for cemmon sacr tice and for common stimulation i production. To use Mr. Hoover's blui expression: 'Europe must work i starve.' "I think I am authorized to say th if the United States can see their wi to take part in some such comprehen ive provision of credits as I have su gestd the British government and tl British people will be prepared, and think rightly prepared, to strain st further the resources which bave be< so impoverished by war. "If that opportunity is not taken am inclined to fear that the great r lief work done by Mr. Hoover, of whi< America is justly proud, will go dov to posterity as a task only half dor I realize that there are many difl ?ultles in the way such, for instan< >* the unison of unofficial Americ, financial effort with operations th "ay be under the control of Europe; ?vernnients, but I have unwaveri frith that these are not insuperabli , Describing the conditions prevaili w Central Europe as he observed th< Jn his r?cent journey, Sir William co tinned: "Locomotives from one ?ount oared not badge across the frontier ?notier. Coal trains with their e< 6??? are liable to be sei_ed th? mi "*? they come within the grasp of ??ighborlng army. The only real sa: *"*? for a supply train going frt ??? country through another is t .ri-enee of a lone British Tomraie wl Perched on the caboose and knpwi ?o language but his own, placidly < eorts the few exchanges of food a -*?* ?ater?ais which have so far < ?Wed several of the countries to k? ???y and soul together. Are Afraid of Old Foes "P* n.ew A1,i*d ?states exhibit s?rvons independence in dealing w "?ir former ?Kmies with whom, , ~*?>??r. they still are technically *?'? Thi? constitute? one of the pi -i_r 0?*t*c'?* to the restoration M; ?-.?ilibrium of Central Europe. ? you had the whole British Ca , ?A* wled into one superman, he wo ?^Powerless to achieve appr?cia ******** no long as by the delay f?** a state of war prevaili in C ^1 Europe." i .Jurf ?vjewing the enmities wh -ton. a th* Ba???? *nd Turkey, _M__y? ,*i<, that industrial and c< 2?9? aetivity virtually had b ?*?&** by political difficulties, _?^__*?*** Production, d?moralis?t ___2*?,w_*-. traffl*' Mortage of ? ?0?? *nd finance. C?eeho-lS?avakla, Poland, Hung "r?.A_:i,tr'*_ h? declared, are all c I_ . .Wlt" '?W ?hortages of f< ?'. al! Central European co i2_- ih_* induction of cereals had b ?SS?* *t least one-third by lack **%?. fertilizers and fodder. *"? ?jester part of the $500,000 1?-2L0. *?&***?* wbich had been _i*_uf lB_ ??ropeanu relief ?inca rjwat ot the armistice was ?upp H?* tf?1t?d States, Sir William s ??*?**? ***?" h* *<?ded, ?was Urn __?_TV**1?-0?4 ??npty pors?. Never -7a_?fa??ti*h ?ovemment was i ^Jljtj-1^00^00 toward relief in KmB-% tTom ??dits to AIM??/' I t_2____!"J,*m ?*id tJ,at it must no I _______* , ?ot ? moment that not) I ?2*1*'. **? being done. The Rep F ?__rL*??*<'???>i?sion sitting at VU ?2 -__?** ??1-!* *? d?Nv? ??*1 ?O * l*'__n__.?-_****M,# Europe. Other A! M?A"* ??r? ?M?* i? ti.!* I *m?Tf?SEPt f6od' ??taWir th? An I 4L iff W -L0*4 Organization, ?a< I |*5-^*r fin*Bc* l*f**ri?? to I j aS^M Mtfcorltioa in Pari? I J_^^r_^'??,** Pw??fo to bee-, in E_-_?___?Iff ?*??-? a tr+jor \rtterGo\n**> F* boavaao Su ??.? at ii<n ?Debacle Threatened While Financial America Sleeps Country Unprepared for Crisis in International Af fairs That May Develop Swiftly; Federal Reserve Board, Logical Leader, Fails to Act in Emergency By Theqdore M. Knappen WASHINGTON, Jan. 8.?How do they d? it? is a question that financial stu dents are asking in view of the fact that the world bought about $8,700,000, 000 worth more from the United Stetes in 1919 than it sold to it. It didn't pay fojf any part of It in gold, for the gold exports exceeded the gold import? by near $800,000,000. Part of it repre? sented realization on loans made to the Allies by the United States, part of it was represented in Red Cross expendi? tures, part in various forms of relief work, which were either1 clear gifts or else on long-time credits, but a very large part of it, probably 60 per cent, represents foreign purchases of Ameri? can products on some sort of private credit extension. Sir George Paish has come from Eng? land to ask for Europe a "staggering" credit?and yet, according to the sta? tistics of exports and imports, it ap? pears superficially that it is actually getting it ?Iready, in large if not stag? gering volume. As the Optimists See It The situation ia viewed pessimisti- '' cally in some quarters and optimisti? cally in others. The fact that, in spite of the adverse exchange rate, the United States continues to increase its exports, is taken by the optimists to mean that private agencies are solving the problem of financing Europe; that while the financial pundits have been seeking some way to extend credits to Europe, individual- bankers -and busi? ness men have been actually doing it in the ordinary course of business. Certainly American traders are not giving away billions of dollars' worth of goods. Equally certain, they ar? not getting goods in return for gold so they must be getting debts from their buyers. ?? It seems to be equally certain that the debts must be long-time-debts. If so, foreign buyers are overcoming the handicap of adverse exchange, for it is only the cash or short-time pur? chaser who has to get together cheap francs or pounds or what-not to buy high-priced dollars. If this be the case the magnitude of foreign purchases is easily explained, and just because they have been so extensive of late is taken to be an excellent indication for the future. The foreigners have been rushing, ac? cording to this theory, to get from us on long-time credit the machinery and materials they need for production. With these they will get to work again and resume production and exportation. Having bought such vast volumes of goods from us this year, they will need ? less next year. We will buy more from them and they will buy less from us, | and the "favorable balance of trade" will become much less. Thus, it would appear, individual traders are settling the problem of continued international trade with the exchange market so ab? normal. The Pessimistic Vies?. The pessimistic view is that the tre? mendous foreign purchases from us last year are like the purchases of a man who involves himself hopelessly in ?debt and mortgages everything he has to keep his household and personal expenditures going, knowing all the time that nothing but a miracle can save him, but being content to shut his eyes to the ruinous future if he can only keep going from day to day. The same view holds that the Ameri? can sellers have let the foreigners have their goods with full knowledge and understanding th&t the latter were plunging with the recklessness of des? peration, and have charged two or three prices for their goods, besides taking a chance on benefiting from exchange if the transaction covered a short period of liquidation, which it is assumed had been the general rule. It is further held that the American venders have taken all the chances that they care to, and that presently Europe will be able to get no more goods here ?and yet is woefully short of the raw materials and instruments of produc? tion without which it cannot put its people to Work. The pessimists predict that when set? tlement day comes there will be just two ways out?either the European buyers will have practically to repudi? ate their American obligations in part or in whole, or some collective effort must be made in the United States to finance the debts that have been in? curred and make possible further com? mitments. They declare that the day of settlement is rapidly approaching and that when it comes the world will be confronted with the collapse of in? ternational trade, which, of course, means ruin for Europe and unparallel distress for the United States. It is pointed out that Europe as a whole makes an essential part of its annual firoduction of wealth by expending abor on imported materials which it exports in finished form. It cannot support its present population on its domestic production of materials. Its wealth is in it? capacity for labor?in its labor supply?rather than In its materials. Unless it imports on a great scale it cannot produce, and so cannot export and turn its surplus labor into wealth. Europe's Position Europe might be regarded ar a fac? tory. It cannot send out finished goods unless it takes in raw goods as well as some finished goods. There is nothing in the factory of itself to produce wealth for its worker?. Europe has no goods on hand?or not anywhere near enough?to exchange for the raw ma? terials it must have to start its produc? tive machinery going and keep it going until it does begin to produce a suf? ficient volume to exchange for what it must have. It has been buying des? perately in the hone of getting a start, but has not bought enough?and what it has bought ha? been at ruinous prices?and is now at the end of its rope. While it is well known that certain bankers believe that the best way out of the situation is for France, say, practically to repudiate its private debt in the United State? to the oxtent of 50 or ?even 75 per cent, measured in francs, wipe the slate clean and start I anew after a sort of international trade bankruptcy, the general view is that a determined and deliberate bankruptcy by French business men is something not to be thought of. On the other hand, it is contended that there must be studied bankruptcy, revolution?r)ly enforced bankruptcy or carefully planned financing of the situation by the United States in some general way. Dodgtng tli? Issue Congress and the Treasury Depart? ment are disposed to let thing? drift or leav? them entirely to private ini? tiative. The Fedoral Reservo Board appears to be divided on the ?abject At any rate, notwithstanding consid? ?rable pressure, it has procrastinated and evaded the issu?. In fact, the pre? vailing disposition in Washington has been to ignore the ?ubject as some? thing too unpleasant and rspellant to think about, . Mir G?org* Paish'? visit is ?xpected , vo fore? ? ??r?o?? consideration of the ? international lyrebUtn and wok?, th? MnaMHtfBMMMMaaUHs1 ??? ?P to the impending crisis, A? ?1 d?*c*ih*i hy some l.nancia_ authorities as being quite as serious in its way as the war itself. . One of them remarked yesterday that just as we drifted aimlessly through throe years of the war and then went into it unprepared, we are now drift !-__-_ ?Ward.?_ul international financial debacle without doing anything to avoid it. He expressed the fear that our course n the financial emergency will run truly parallel to our course in w?P,--?it(?ithe ^ff ??ergency, and that we will do nothing until we are ac? tually pulled into the whirlpool, when ^?o7'U-P_ut ???h f,r?ntic, wasteful, misdirected and largely foolish efforts to pull ourselves and the rest of the world out of the seething waters The prevailing view here is that it is useless to expect any Congressional initiative in meeting the crisis, and even those who are severest in their denunciation of our drifting policy are o| the opinion that the financing should bo private rather than state. Nevertheless, at the last, it is believed that there must be some sort of government guaranty behind any great credit undertaking at this time, if results are to be obtained. It is argued that American investors will not put their money into any sort of paper based on European debts unless they are assured that in the last resort they can look to Uncle Sam for protection. Reserve Board Should Act Surprise is expressed that t__e Fed? eral Reserve Board does not take the lead in getting the bankers, finan? ciers and business men of the country together for a serious and methodical deliberation on the situation. The board has come to be regarded as/the national guardian of monetary and financial stability and as the central adviser, and counsellor <n such. mat? ters. It is asserted that nothing else will ?waken the country to the dan? gers cf the hour so much as a diag? nosis of them by the board, accompa? nied by the announcement of a plan for a conference or a series of confer? ences to decide upon some definite col? lective action by those who ?ro in au? thority in the worlds of finance and in? dustry. Members of the board fore? saw the financial chaos that would fol? low the war, and have watched appre? hensively developments in Europe and here ever since the armistice, and yet, it is said in criticism of them, they have stood by and let the United States extend its credit inflation since then by $4,000,000,000 for practically noth- ? ing, while the whole structure of world j trade is in danger of collapsing for need of credit from the United Staaes. i Cause of Inaction The board's inaction is explained as I partly due to timorousness in starting something that it instinctively feels j will be moat unpopular in the present ; reaction in the United States against j further extension of foreign entangle-i ments of any sort, and partly due to ] the fact that it does not care to take the leadership in such a jrrave na-1 tional ?nd international; enterprise I without the sanction of President WH- j Bon, and it haB of course been impos-1 sible to bring the matter to his con-1 sideration. Government Expert Says People Oppose U. S. Rail Ownership Dr. Emory R. Johnson Says Inefficient Operation of Roads and Deficits Have Created Wide Sentiment Special CorretTOndenc* PHILADELPHIA, Jan. _S.?According to Dr. Emory R. Johnson, dean of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and one of America's leading authorities on railroad trans? portation, the financial salvation of America's entire transportation system depends upon the ability of Congress so to harmonize two conflicting rail? road bills now before it that when the roads aro handed back to their owners March 1 they will be assured of suffi? cient revenue to make them attractive to private investment. The only al? ternative, he said, is government own? ership. Dr. Johnson's conclusions wero given in an address at the university to-day on "The Railway Puzzle." Dr. John? son has been a government advisor on transportation problems for every na? tional administration since that of President McKinley. While admitting that Directors Mc Adoo and Hines have done the best they could with a difficult situation, Dr. Johnson maintained that the rail? roads as operated by the government during the last two years were not now a suitable investment. He ex? pressed the opinion that Congress would pass suitable legislation to make them such. Dr. Johnson also declared that the public, except the railroad employees, did not favor government ownership and operation, because shippers and travelers had not been so well served under government op? eration as under corporate manage? ment, and also because the govern? ment, instead of making ends meet, had incurred a large deficit. Dr. Johnson said that the railroads would profit after the return of their lines by the precedent which the gov? ernment had set in permitting termi? nal and1 line economies which had been forbidden the private owners beforo tH? Wat* Public Footed Bills "Can the railroads be successfully financed and operated when they are returned to their owners? For two years the government has drawn upon the public treasury to sustain the credit of carrier_; after the first of March the companies must be self-sup? porting or become bankrupt. "If tho carriers uvoid failure their ineomc must cover operating expenses, maintenance and capital charges; if tho companies succeed to tho extent that is demande? in public interest, they must not only be able to meet unavoidable expenses, they must have some surplus revenue. If there is no Income to be used in part for better? ments and in part for building up a surplus or reserve fund, the nubile will not invest in the railroads, their credit cannot be reestablished and main? tained and corporate ownership and operation of the railways will fail. "Tho incom* of tho carriers is de? termined by public regulation, and properly so? but from this it follows that the country must decide betweop a policy of ad?quat? revenues to tho railroad corporation? o?.the futuro and ? policy of government ownership. I he country-must have railroad tratispor taUon, and il lactiMtrUa ?it to d?v?lop and social conditions are to continue to improve, the railroads must serve the country with progressive efficiency and adequacy. The United States can? not stand ?till; it must go ahead, and it must have the transportation system that will make this possible. The car? riers must be given the1 necessary funds or the government must take the place of the carriers. Experiment Called Faiinre "The country has had two yearB* ex? perience with government operation; and, with the exception of the railroad employees, very few people want the experiment continued. Free as the people of the United States are with government funds, they will not be dis? posed to make an initial investment of eighteen to twenty billion dollars in railroads and to raise a minimum of even 6 per cent of that sum?a billion dollars? additional capital each year to provide for betterment and exten? sions. "If shippers and travelers had been better ' served during government ap eration than they were during corpora? tion management; if the government had made ends meet, instead of incur? ring a large deficit, the public might possibly desire the continuance of gov? ernment operation and might favor ultimate public ownership of the rail? roads; but the showing made by the government in not encouraging. "The inability of the government to run the railroads with positive success has not been due to incompetent mana? gerial ability. Directors General Mc Adoo and Hincs are men of great ex? ecutive capacity, and they called to their assistance skilled railroad offi? cials. Nor has the war made success? ful government operation impossible. I The President was able to vest in the railroad administration his practically unlimited war powers; the government was able to make whatever changes it I deemed desirable in transportation j methods and practices, and, at least while the war was on, the public was not disposed to question the govern-' ment's acts. "The limitations of government man- i agement of transportation have been I clearly revealed by the experience of the railroad administration during the last two years; tho service has become less efficient, the number of employees has been increased, wages and other expenses have risen rapidly (partly be? cause of the war and partly because of political reasons), revenues have not been increased to meet the enlarged expenses and a large drain has been made upon the taxpayer? to make up annual deficits. "The government is entitled to credit for having given greater unity to rail? road operation, both line and terminal. It has done much that the carriers were prohibited from doing. The pub? lic now realize that cooperation of the carriers in> the joint use of equip? ment and terminals should be encour? aged, instend of prevented. Past regu? lation forbade many economies and conveniences in transportation that will in tho future be required of the car? riers as a result of government opera? tion, and it is m?fet fortunate that the experience of the government has given the public clearer views concerning | the principles that should control the ! relation of the government to the car- \ riers. j Discusses Pending Bills "During the next few weeks the j country will decide upon its future ; railroad policy. The Senate and House of Representatives will compose their differences and permanent legislation ; for the regulation of the railroads will be enacted. The two bills now being considered by the conference commit? tees of the two houses differ funda? mentally. The Senate bill is based on the theory that the many existing railroad linos should be brought to? gether, within a reasonable time, into twenty to thirty-five larg? permanent competing systems of about equal strength. Consolidation is to be vol? untary for seven years; thereafter compulsory, if necessary. The largo railroad companies of the future are to he Federal corporations, and their reg? ulation, except as to rates, is to be by ;i Federal board of five members, whose organization and functions shall be strictly executive. The House bill per? mits but does not require consolida? tion. It is silent upon the subject of Federal incorporation. The administra? tive regulation of the railroads is to be by the Interstate Commerce Com mission, the membership of which is to be increased from nine to eleven. The duties of the Interstate Commerce Co3iimission would be greatly increased by the HoustTbill. "The railroad legislation now pend in in Congress must solve many diffi? cult questions, but tho most critical one is that of providing for the future regulation of railroads in accordance with a policy that will cause the car? riers to secure revenue sufficient to enable them to perform their services adequately and with progressive ef? ficiency. The railroad business must be made, attractive to private invest? ments or the country will have to adopt government ownership and op? eration of the railroads. There is no other alternative." Clarke Brothers Occupy Tribune Corner Offices Portrait of Horace Greeley Re? tains Place of Honor on Banking House Wall Clarke Brothers, bankers, yesterday held a formal opening of their new of? fices in the Spruce and Nassau street? Corner of the Tribune Building. Tho corner has never before been occupied by any but tho publication offices of The Tribune. Intending to ? maintain the traditions of the place, Clarke Brother have placed in the center of the wall opposite the tellers' cages a large portrait of Horace Greeley, founder of The Tribune. It is flanked by two portraits of William Clarke, who founded the banking house in 1840. Beneath it and within view of the sidewalk on Spruce Street is a new steel mob and burglar proof bank vault. Us walls consist of three and one-half inches of manganese steel, with six inches of concrete outside of that and eight inches of fireproof brick enclosing all. According to James R. Clurke, a member of the firm, dynamite would have no effect on it. The vault is further protected by three time locks, Holmes Electric Pro? tection and iron grill. A watchman will be in constant attendance. Representatives of leading banking houses, newspapers and political or? ganizations were invited to attend the formal oponing. A buffet lunch was served. Bonus for Sailors Naval reservists who are transfer? ring to the active list to serve unex pired periods of enlistment are receiv? ing gratuities ranging from $130 to $582. it was announced yesterday by Commander F. II. Poteet, of the re? cruiting station, 34 East Twenty-third Streot. Commander Poteet has been authorized to pay re?nlistment gratui? ties ranging from $6 to $000 to honor? ably discharged mon who re?nlist for two or more years. ? Dividends Regular Declarations Rato A Pay- StlthMrs period abl.) of record Alas. Oil 1 M..Jfcn.16 Jan. 5 Amnrkan Roll. Mill?. 76c, Q.Jan. 16 Dee. 31 do 6 ?.Jan.lfi Dec. Si do ofd 1V4. O.Jan. 15 Dee.81 do, debenlur?. 1%. Q.. ...Tan.16 Dec ?it Carbon Hteel, 2, Q..Tan.16 Jan.in do, l.t pfd. 4. 8-A.Mar.80 Mar.ac do, Sd pfd, 8. ?.Julyao July28 OIL HtV.v (bUrs. f?n), <6.ic, M.Feb. .1 .Ian.16 Heron!*? Petroleum, 1, M.Ian.16 Jan. 6 Mohawk Mlnlnffj?l.SO, Q.Kob,2 'I*"'1? nspubllf! Oil & TOifln,. 2. ?...Jan.10 Jan. 1 Nor. ftal-n Vow., pfd, 1%, Q..Ian."0 Doa.31 T?x?a chief OH. 1V4. M..Jss.j?0 Jan. s > Mut. ?it. of HossvtlU. ?jfi. ~..Jan?Sl Jau.M Britain Is Warned To B? Prepared for Another Great War General Sir Louis Jackson Urges dose Study of All Lessons of Recent Con? flict; Favors Use of Gas Farot?n Pro?? Jtmroam Sow York T risan? LONDON, Doc 15,?In ? paper on 'The Possibilities of th? Next War," read at the Royal United Service In? stitution yesterday, Major General Sir Louis Jaskson suggested that thero would be ? roturo to open warfare, says "The London TimeB." Mechani? cal transport would influence most deeply the tactics of the future. Gases which killed painlessly might be used. Air fighting would be enormously de? veloped. The long rifle would be suc? ceeded by a short carbine, and artil? lery would be much more mobile. Lord Peel, Under Secretary for War, presided, and among those present were Field Marshal Lord Methuen, Lieutenant General Sir Herbert Miles, Major General Sir Francis Bond, Major General E. D. Swinton, Major General Sir W. H. Hirkbeck, Sir R. H. Brade, Major General E. C. Donald and Colonel F. C. Stone. General Jackson said his object was really to arouse controversy on certain points. It was quite clear that we were on the eve of the most extensive modifications in the art of war known to history, and the changes made in the recent war were only the begin iing. It was necessary to develop new arms with the knowledge that the na? tion which best did so would have a great advantage in the next war. There were people who were crying for a reduction of armaments and who declared that another war was a? Im? possibility Just as, six years go, they declred wwr with Germany was an im? possibility. In future wars wo should be exposed to much greater dangers than in the recent war. And Ger? many had not refrained from saying that she hoped for revenge some day. Sees End of Tanks He believed that one of the greatest developments in the art of war would be brought about in mechanical trans Eort. The tank was a freak which had een called into existence by excep? tional circumstances, which" were not likely to recur, and which if they did recur could be dealt with by other means. The outstanding feature of the tanks had been that they had made mechanical transport independent of the roads. That was going to influ? ence most deeply the tactics of the future. If the whole of the transport of an army was carried by vehicles with caterpillar wheels it would be independent of the roads. There would be no long column of transport, but it could advance in open order on a broad front carrying guns, munitions, supplies and men. At the san* time fast cars and motor? cycles would be useful for sudden blows at long distances. Favors Use of Gas With regard to the use of gas in future wars, he said that there was no more reason to forbid its use than to"1 forbid the use of rifles. There were gascswhih killed painlessly and it was easy to conceive cases in which it would be more humano to use gas than explosive shells. That was especially the case with punitive expeditions that no gas should be used which would cause unnecessary suffering. Com- ! mercial progress and prosperity in the : 20th century would depend on chem? istry, and chemical productions mu3t have a great effect on all future war? fare. It was in the air that we were face to face with the problem of the fu? ture. It was in the air that we had had the most important advance in the art of the war. We need not trouble ourselves yet with flying destroyers, ! or flying concrete forts, but in twenty years' time the Air Force Estimates ; might be the most important part of our preparations for war. Bombing ' and reconnaissance machines would be developed by commerce, for the ma? chines used in commerce could easily be adapted for war purposes, and civilian pilots could be taken over with the machines. For fighting machines special types were required and highly specialized military training was nec? essary for the personnel. For both machines and the men to man them that side of flying must-be developed by the government. One re? sult of a return to open warfare would probably be that bombers Would not ; have the same targets near the front of the armies and would secure better results by going farther afield ond bombing the centers where munitions were manufactured, stores were ac? cumulated and troops were trained. For Better Liasson Dealing with the liasson service, he pointed out that there was much room for simplification, and the open war? fare of 1918 had led to the elimination of some forma of communication which had been used ppreviously. Wireless telegraphy would be the principal means of communicating with aircraft and a development of the electrical listening posts used in trench war? fare, a ground wireless system would become the standard means of commu? nication between advanced infantry and the headquarters controlling them. He believed also that smoke and light signals, a pillar of cloud by day and a pillar of fire by night would be used by troops to show the positions they had reached. There had never been a war in which such an extreme variety of weapons had been employed. The long rifle had seen its day and should be replaced by a short carbine which would be accurate up to GOO yards. Each man should also carry a good dagger which might be attached to the carbine like a bayonet. He did not think the au? tomatic pistol would survive, and ho was not sure that the grenade would not also go, if they assumed that in future they would have open war? fare. The soldier of the future must be absolutely different from his predeces? sor. The days had.gone by when in? itiative was considered not only un? necessary, but dangerous. In addition to his rifle, he should be able to handle a Lewis or machine gun, and to help the artillery. He should know some? thing of explosives, have a knowledge of fuses, understand signalling, and be capable of handling a ground wireless set. He should receive Intensive train? ing and really good instruction. Business News ;.-.-:-?-\ RENEWAL of the $40,000,000 Belgian acceptance credit, coupled with the stiff rates for call money, caused another increase in the rates on bank? ers' acceptances last week, bringing the quotations of dealers up to a 5%@5 per cent basis for bills maturing in ninety days. The market continued to be held in check by the high rates on Stock Exchange money, but, with antici? pated easier rates now believed imminent, an increase in the buying by banks !? expected. As on previous weeks, the Federal Reserve Bank was the main factor in the market, its basic buying 'rate being 5 per cent. Rates quoted by leading dealers follow: Ninety Sixty Thirty Spot delivery: days days days Eligible member banks. 5*s@5 5%@5 5%@4T? Eligible non-member banks. 5%@5tt 5%@5 5V*'@4T* Ineligible bank bills. 6 ?SB1.* 6 @5S 6 ($5% For deliver^ within 80 days: Eligible member banks. 5** bid Eligible non-member banks_ 6% bid Ineligible bank bills. 6 bid Dealings in the commercial paper market last week also were greatly re? stricted by the high call money rates, and local banks refrained from increas? ing their obligations only in case where the borrower was a regular customer. The country banks were the principal buyer? in the open market. COTTONS?Converters Unable to Obtain Supplies Converters of cotton goods in need of gray or unfinished fabrics for print? ing, dyeing or bleaching cannot ob? tain sufficient supplies for their imme? diate needs. Spot goods are scarce and gray goods brokers report that most of the Eastern mills are refusing to ac? cept orders even at present high prices. The majority of Eastern mills, according to their agents here and brokers who -buy from them, have orders running into April, but will be ready to take on more business for .later months within a short time. Deliveries of goods that should be coming through now are delayed. Pro? duction at the mills is scarcely above 70 per cent of the old normal, and most mills are behind their schedules at present. Yarn spinners are further behind their delivery schedules than the weavers, despite the establishment and enlargement of spinning mills. SILKS?Small Jobbers Offer Goods at Concessions Some o? the smaller ?Ilk jobbers who plied a brisk and profitable trade up to * month or so ago are now offer? ing silks a? prices from 10 to 25 per cent below the present market levels. These jobbers are not overloaded, and their price sacrifices are purely the re? sult of their financial inability to carry these stocks. This condition, in con? junction with the fact that larger job? bers aro taking everything they can buy at full market prices and that re? tailer, garment manufacturers and jobbers from other cities are showing a disposition to operate at high price levels, forms paradox in the trade. Some of the largest mill owners are inclined to regard the present situation as precarious and are looking for im? portant developments within the next weck ?r two. Large jobbers, however, are optimistic, and while few of them predict more of the sharp rises that the market has seen in the past six months, they feel that present prices will hold for some time to come. One of the largest jobbers in the trade said yesterday that he was willing to oer ate to the fullest extent of his finan ; cial ability for tho next six months, but ; that unless conditions showed a ma i terial change at the end of that time j he would take steps to place his busi? ness on a conservative basis. ? LEATHER?Tanners ; Buying Hides in South America American tanners are placing large ? orders for South American hides in ' Buenos Ayres to be delivered when j conditions permit. It was said yes j j New Power Plans Are I Rumored at Niagara Falls Old Love Canal Scheme To Be Revived by Westinghouse Co., Is Current Report NIAGARA FALLS?Rumors of new power plans are in circulation in Ni? agara Falls, but none has been verified. One rumor is that the Niagara Falls Power Company will build a tunnel or power canal from the upper Niagara River at the easterly city line along its Niagara Junction railway line to the | north end of the city and thence down n newly acquired right of way to Lewiston Heights, where, it is said, a new power plant is planned to utilize the diverted water for power develop? ment. . Tho company is said to have ac? quired a right of way from the north? erly end of the Junction railway north to the point where the Lewiston hill meets the lower Niagara. The second rumor is that a power canal is planned paralleling the mili? tary road from La Salle to Lewiston Heights. William Baker, a Falls real estate man, is said to have secured options on a strip of land in that lo? cality for the Westinghouse Electric Company. Ail the power interests op? posed to the Niagara Falls Power Com? pany are behind the scheme, which is a revival of th? old Love canal proposi? tion, said John L. Harper, chief engi? neer of the Niagara Falls Power Com? pany- ... ?-?*.. The third rumor is that the Westing? house interests are planning to acquire the Niagara Gorge railway right of way or the power rights of the company, or both, in the lower Niagara district. The Niagara Falls Power Company has re? cently denied that it acquired the gorge. All the plans and schemes are con ! tingent, it is said, on Washington ne i gotiating a new powor treaty with the Canadian government which will in? crease the water diversion above-the I falls on the American side. The di I version is limited now to 20,000 cubic i feet a second.?Buffalo Express. Corn Was Ancient Food Missionary Declare? Grain Was Grown Long Ago in China Theories that corn is only a product of tho Indians of North America re? ceived a severe blow when a communi? cation was received from Miss M. Mon inger, a Marshalltown (Iowa) woman engaged in missionary work in Hai? nan, China. She graduated from Gnnnell m 1018 Miss Moninger states that corn is now being grown and used by the highland tribes, and tradition shows that its us? dates back to primeval times. The Grinncll College botany depart? ment has received the most complete collection of Oriental plant specimen? in the United States, the gift of Mis? Moninger.?Nyack Evening Journal. terday that during the last few days orders had been placed for o ."er 100,000 ounds of La Plata and Buenos Ayres ides. Domestic winter hides have never been purchased as freely as this season. This is owing in part to labor trouble in the South American ports, which is holding back large quantities of raw stock. Packers in this country are refus? ing to quote prices on future ship mentsj and likewise the tanners will not give prices on light solo leather for future delivery. Recent exports of both hides and leather to France, Scandinavia and Italy have helped ma? terially to reduce stocks here. It is felt that the demands for leather from Europe will be enormous when the ex? change situation assumes a more nor? mal aspect because of the shortage of footwear abroad. iJEWELKY?iopan Buys Clock Steel Here Several large consignments of iron and steel materials used in clock making were exported yesterday to Japan by one of the large local clock factories. Before the war England and Switzerland almost entirely sup? plied the tin plate and springs from which the ? time pieces were made. After the outbreak of the war, how? ever, when European supplies ceased, limited quantities of wires and springs Were received from the United State and proved thoroughly satisfactory. Since that time relations between American and -Japanese firms have been strensthened greatly and large shipments of clock materials are be? ing sent to that country from time to time. Japan, according to leaders in the local clock-making Industry, is rapid? ly becoming a real factor in the manu? facture of timepieces. The industry in that country grew out of the at? tempt of a native to duplicate a clock brought to Japan in 1873 In 1886 this man succeeded in making two clocks that could be regulated fairly w?l) and kept good time. In the following year a clock factory was established in Nagoya, but it was not until 1890 that its products were put on the market. In 1891 three more factories were opened, and at pre.ent there are nineteen factories in Nagoya, employ? ing about 2,000 people, devoted to tho manufacture of various kinds of wall, mantel and alarm clocks. About 75 per cent of the clocks manufactured in Japan are turned out by factories in Nagoya, with the remaining 25 per cent coming from Tokio. The clocks of different varieties reaching this country from Japan cost the importer from $18 to $55 per dozen. Large amounts of the cheaper varieties are being exported by the Japanese merchants to China and the South Seas. i Argentine Refuses to Send Its Sugar Surplus Abroad BUENOS AYRES, Dec. 3.?There ap t_> pears to be little chance that the United States or any other country suffering from sugar^shortage will re? ceive any help for some time to come from Argentina. The sugar growers of Tucuman, the principal sugar producing province, appealed recently to President Irigo 1 yen, saying they had a surplus of 50,000 tons and asking him to revoke the decree forbidding exportation. La Jior organizations raised a protest, de? claring that exportation would result In an advance in the price to domestic consumers and saying that the sur? plus which the Tucuman growers had President Irigoyen announced that he would not revoke the decree. Now comes a report from the Di? rector of Rural Economy and Statistics estimating that this year's sugar har? vest will amount to 260,000 tons and saying that while there will be a Bur plus of 52,154 tons, it should be re? tained in this country as a reserve stock. ? ' i ?.?' i Business Troubles Petitions in Bankruptcy Petitions in bankruptcy filed In the United States District Court yesterday were as follows: JACOB LEVIN?An Involuntary petition was filed against Jacob Levin, 931 South st., Peeksklll, N. T. Liabilities and assets not stated. Principal creditors are Tllkln A Zlffert, $1.0; J. H. Smith Co., ?319; Ed? ward Korn Co., $90. Petitioner's attorney, Leonard Bronner, 309 Bway. WILLIAM A. LENNON?Voluntary peti? tion filed by William A. Lennon. Kings? ton, N. V. Liabilities, ?1,465; assets $25. Principal creditors. John Burke Import? ing Co., $149; Grace J. Gray. $196; Thomas Ward & Co.. $126. Petitioner's attorney. Lewis H. St.ant.on, Monticello, N. Y. FREDERICK C. KIN??Voluntary peti I tlon by Frederick C. King, 69th st. and 6th av. Liabilities, $38,623; assets, $360. I Principal creditors. Secor & Bell. $11.368: Ohio Savings & Trust Co.. representing an I action on promissory notes given by alleged ' bankrupt, $26,779. Petitioner's attorneys. ! Hamilton & Freeman, 100 Bway. Schedules in Bankruptcy Schedules In bankruptcy filed in the United States District Court yesterday were as follows: HARDWARE & SUPPLY CO.?Schedules of Hardware ?_ Supply Co., 205 Canal st.. show U'abllities of $32.473 and assets of $10,500. Principal creditors, H. A. Sand. ers, $2,408; Standard Tool Co., $904; Toi? ling Bros.. $735. P.tlt'onerVatto.ney. Ben? jamin Weiss, 2T1 Bway. Paris Market Firm PARIS, Jan. 3.-<-Prices were firm on the Bourse today. Three per cent? rantes 69 francs. Exchange on Lon? don, 40 francs 95 centimes. Five per cent loan, 88 francs 85 centimes. The dollar was quoted at 10 francs 76*_i centimes. London Money Market j LONDON, Jan. 3.?Money, 5 per cent; discount rates, short and three months bills, 5% per cent; gold premium at Lisbon, 140. I Volume of Stock Trading ;-1019-?> Railroad Other All ?tocka. atoeke. at??ck?. ?anuary . 1,0"?,8?0 10,858,900 11,901,700 February .,. 1,079,400 11,232,000 12,311,400 March . 2,321,600 18,996,600 21,318,200 AprU . 3,401,700 26,212,600 28,614,300 May. 6,017,600 29,426,600 34,443,600 Jon? . 4,001,200 28,862,800 32.864,000 July ." 8,312,400 30,169,600 36,612,000 Antut . 4,418,600 20,023,100 24,441.600 September . 4,019,100 20,133,800 _ 24,153,700 October . 8,871,200 31,620,000 ^ 37,391,200 November. 6,101,900 26,080.400 30,191,300 December .*. 4,887.600 20,97?100 28,861,700 Railroad ?tocka. 1,710.900 1,021,700 1.703,000 669,100 3,226,700 2,114.100 801,400 1,223,600 1,191,300 3,282,600 3,283,000 2.411.200 Totals...? 48.476.700 ?72,628,000 619,004,800 ? 2,587,600 123,806,900 England Av?rts Threatened Famine Of Hard Currency Protective Measures Prevent Hoarding or Melting of Silver Coins; Worth More t as Bullion Than Money Now York Tributo Europ?en Bureau LONDON, Dec. 15.?The price of sil? ver in England has crept up to above $1.50, more than 20 cents above par, and the market position continues to cause anxiety to the authorities. Conti? nental domestic trade has been greatly hampered by the premium on silver metal and the consequent hoarding of fractional coins. It is some months now since evi? dences of an insatiable demand for sil? ver from China and the East mani? fested itself. The British Treasury au? thorities recognized the probability of the continued growth of this demand, coupled with the clog on production in Mexico and elsewhere, and that it would lead to exceptionally high prices for the metal and that somo prepara? tion must be made to meet a probable silver emergency. Prepare for Emergency The Chancellor of the Exchequer, therefore, caused an issue of --shilling paper notes to be prepared in advance The price of silver continued to rise, an acute famine existed on the Conti? nent, and an issue of half-crown notes i about <<0 cents, par value) w_s also ?truck off*. Neither of these issues has been circulated. The famine in small change has been severe on the Continent; England, it has so turned out, has not been as seriously affected as had been feared, for this country has always been the center of the silver mart, and haa provided enough silver for trade here before passing the balance of the avail able supply along to the Continent, France has been compelled to retort to extraordinary measures, such as the use of brass and aluminum checks, issued by private business houses and caf?s In lieu of silver change, and pcceptcd by them at face value In ex? change for merchandise. England has taken precautions, but so far has not felt the shortage as severely as her neighbor. Little Meltfing In England Theoretically, when the price of silver reaches $1.32 an ounce in the London market, it becomes profitable to melt down silver coin; when this quotation was reached about the 1st of November considerable excitement was caused; rumors of grest hoardings and meltings were freely circulated, and trades-people tried their best to avoid giving silver change. Obviously, the melting of coin, in actual fact, would not be a paying proposition until the price of silver reached at least $1.40. This latter quotation wa reached, and passed. Silver went above $1.50. Reports were received daily from the Continent of the arrest of travelers who were fi'.emg with silver for the Swiss border and a pri? vate smelting works. But nothing of the kind occurred in England; there was no wholesale melting of silver coins, nor did hoarding take place to the anticipated extent. The shortage is apparent to the financial expert} to the man in the street it is not. The reasons for Britain's successful avoidance of a silver crisis are many. Efficient government handling of the proposition and failure to give way to hysteria are two of them. The gov? ernment issued a regulation making it a serious offense for any one to melt down coins; the metal In florins and half crown pieces, as well as in the smaller coins, is now worth consider? ably more than the face value of those pieces; with n premium of about 20 per cent on silver it would have been highly profitable to melt large quan? tities of coins and sell the metal in th? open market. The regulation has ef? fectively stopped such practice in Eng? land. On the Continent more difficulty was experienced in preventing the melting of silver coinage, because of the greater premium on silver due to the greater depreciation in exchange rates. It became necessary In France to prohibit travelers from taking more than a stipulated sum in silver coins when thev crossed the border. Another way in which the public can embarrass the government during a sil? ver shortage is by hoarding coins. This always h^s been done on the Continent. The French peasant is an insatiable hoarder. Yet even in the present crisis in this country there has been no hoarding on an injurious scale. A little there probably is, but the Englishman is ndt a hoarder by nature, ana this as? pect of the question is not taken by the treasury to be the most serious. Up to the present appeals in the press and in Parliament to "keep small change mov? ing quickly" seems to have produced the desired effect. A Favorable Factor What the treasury is most concerned about is the fact that silver prices are now over 20 cents per ounce above the price at which the mint can produce coinage without suffering a loss. A re? newed rise in silver would immediately enhance the dangers from melting and hoarding, but a favorable factor in the situation is the existence in the Bank of France, of an enormous quantity of sil? ver francs, capable now of being used profitably in the open market. The acuteness of the situation was further relieved by the recent break which took place early in December on the news that the United States Government was prepared to supply broken up silver dollars in exchange for gold dollar. . Further movements of the New York exchange against the pound sterling have almost eliminated this gain. The release of American dollars, which were melted down . nd shipped to India, ha? had a beneficial effect, because it re? leased that much stiver for the rest of the world. The native of India has the utmo.t aversion to any sort of paper money and will not accept it under any cir? cumstances. He uses silver as cur? rency, but will also accept gold In payment for his work. But he imme? diately hoards the gold, or melts it down into ornaments. Thus, India has become a great chasm to fill. Similar feeling exists in China and is spread? ing, hence the recent heavy demands from the East for silver. At present a movement is on foot in India to overcome this aversion to paper money. Several of the best known and " . trongc.t banks are to combine and they will be given note issuing powers. It is hoped, by show? ing the public that these strong banks are behind the money, to gain popu? larity gradually for paper notes. The present premium on gold traces its origin largely to this Indian aversion to paper currency. England's currency is so constructed that an immen.e quantity of silver coin is needed?probably three times the amount required for a similar vol? ume of business wjth the American system. There is no paper money smaller than the ten shilling note? equivalent to nearly $2.60 at par value. If a customer in a store buys one shilling's worth of goods and ten? ders n ten-shillin? note in payment he must receive silver or copper change quivalcnt in value to ni?._ American ?uarters. It wr*Nld be decidedly prac icable to issue ?, e-slnlling notrs were t not for the public aversion to paper noney.