The New York herald. [volume], April 05, 1878, Page 4, Image 4

About The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920

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HERALD WEATHER SERVICE
A Review of the Storm Warnings for
Europe by Mr. Scott, F. R. S.
CRITICISM AND CONTRADICTION.
On'y Forty-five Per Cent of the Predic
tions Admitted as Fulfilled
A CURIOUS COMPARISON
While the merchants, farmers and seamen of Eu
rope were reaping the advantages of the reliable and
timely storm predictions cabled by the Hsu Ate
Weather Bureau for their bauelii, sua tbe press was
recording ibe successes of tbe Hkmalu id rts ne* and
important journalistic enterprise, a criticism baa
bocn prepared by tbe Secretary of iba Meteorological
Council, London, on ibe Hkkald predictions to prove
that the percentage of fuibiuieuts ol "ibe American
storm warnings" la comparatively small ana tbat tbe
public estimate ol tbe va.ue ol trie ayatem ta nut lustl
Med by lit operation. Tbe baaaa ol ibia official opinion
are:?
?Tbat It Is impossible to trace ibe course ol a
storm s patb westward irom tbe coast* ol tbe British
lelanda. from tbe mlormation in possession ol tbe
Meieoroiogictl OfBco, London, until many montba
after tne occurrence.
?Second?'Tbat a loribcomlng paper on tbe weather
lor August, l*7o. will show bow difficult It is to pre
dict tbe courses ol slorois leaving tbe Atnericau Con
tinent.
Third?That Hroiessor Dove, in nia "t>eseiz der
Bu'irnio," published in 1867, says:?"H is evideut
tbat tbe connection between a storm in tbe temper
ate zone aod tbe original cyclone in ibe torrid soue to
wbicb it owes Us origin need not uocessurilv be trace
able aa a continuously advauo ng minimum In tbe
lower strata of tbe atmosphere. "
Fourth?Tbat although tbe investigations of Cap
tain Toynbee and others prove tbat depressions are
met crossiug tbo Atlantic by vessels bound westward,
tbis lact docs "not prove anything as to tbe possi
bility or a tnoteorologist In Hie Culled Slates being
able to say wbich out of several gules passing out lu
sea from ibe American coast wl'l bo likely to travel
across ibe Atlantic with unimpaired energy.'*
Fifth?That Professor Loom is does not believe tbe
thing can be done.
Mr. Robert H. Scott, F. It. S., Secretary 10 tbe
lloieorological Council, bas underlalceu a "private in
quiry" Into the results ol Ibe Hkkalu predictions
cabled during tbe eleveu months ending December,
1877, sud bas published ibe Ueducnous lu tbe Aautical
%Mayazint for Marcb.
Alter recounting lite failure of all the attempts to
derive uselul information Irom cable messages based
on observations taken at Heart's Content, Newlound
land, between January, 1808, sad November, 1871 and
commenting unUvorably ou Froiessor Draper's theory
tbal storms cross tbe oeean and on tbe unsuccestlul
attempt of tbe United Slates Signal service lo waru
tbe British coasts in 1874, he goes ou to say, with
reference to tbe Hssa&n predictions*?
hucb was the state ol the question when. In February,
1R77, Mr. J. li. Bennett, the proprietor of the N>:? Yokk
lliaiLP, commenced (tending occasion*! warning* to
Kuro,.e, winch have been puoHsiied in the newspapers.
The meteorological office, on tbe tir.t appearance ol these
warnings, opened ccuiiuuiilcallous with the l.ouiliin utiles
ol the .Nsw koHK UsksLD slid received a mom ready re
sponse. Macs thai date we have received almost without
intermission u copy ol each st'irm warning telegram which
baa been transmuted lo tun country Irom New York
1 have iiiMliuled a carelul comparison between tbesa
warnings and the wanner subsequently experienced In
these mantis. and tbe main lact. ol ibis comparison are
enumerated lu tue following iaules, this lie dings ol which
explain themselves. I he general result <>f the comparison
Is that, during the entire periou of ne rl.v eleven months,
thirty-six telegram* were teceived conveying warnings ol
lort> d i tie rent disturbances Ciaxilytug luese Warnings
under lour categories vis.. A. absolute saeaass; It, partial
success, C, voi v slight success; D, absolute failure-wa
Bod
f'los A'ft oj lifltincr*. I>rnmt,t,/r
B
lo
ii
17
a.'?.i i
16. U
42.5
Total t<> 100.0
lhiHkwi, theielore, allow that lorty-ftve per cent of
tbe HRrnm^H can bo oomidirvd to t?e really xucoeaaiul
Wbil i? nieaiit by "really suce. saint" in, that iulormaiioii
conveyed by luaiu wa* u; rent value l? boaiueu la Jlrltiah
porta.
The intimation lo outbound ?hip* that bad weather In
prevailing at the other aide of the Atlantic at ibe time
ihey are leaving port aver hero. may ol coitr?e be naelm,
bee <use our own experleuc ? tella us that atorma to winter,
like mialortunea. never conte single, and so tue dialuroed
elate ol tbe weatbei mar perhaps prevail up to the time
that ihey reach the American coaat, er at least tbe longi
tude ol Newloun .land
ll the actual wording ofthe warning" be exsa^ned we
shall see thai ihey are framed with more reference to tbe
?oBdlttona ?l a contlueutai climate, with it* abrupt
chaagea, such ?s prevail lu tho United Mates, than tue
more ~emal cirMuliUMWIn winch we live, In ail uceauic
climate. In tbv?? islands Una la aufltclently evideut Irom
tba Ireouent torecaais ol lightning ?nd ol tnddea serious
?Iteration* >1 temperature, naruiy one of wi leli ha* tieeu
fulfilled. Toe pro.a?ati< atlon* ol h'avy rata* met with
more lack, but neavy rain ia a aalo proposey lor uur weal
Waiu at an aeaaon..
ll mast eot tie lorgotieu that ibe lact ol a g?>c being re
ported i n tbe <lay lor Inch one baa been foritold does not
ueeea**riljr Drove that the - ale leu here l>a? be in ihe -am<>
storm an e't the Aoitruan . o.tat. In lact, In the caae ol
warning* No. 1 and .No. 4 the pa.b of lha diaturbanco w?
la aucu a direction as. to aay the isaai. would leudar It ex
tieuiely iinuroi'aoia mat Uo art > ot uepreaaiou in quea
tiun had lome Iroiu America. Keen though, a> w?s ex
plained In tue lifcKaui ol February 1\M77, ihe a.e? ol
depression itio. I) w.ia In front ol an advancing art-a ol
blgh prreaarr, the area ot depresaion, whan it reached
thta aide of tbe Atlantic, uiaiincliy moved Iron, north
to aonth over several degrees ol latitude, anu we are
absolutely without aujr evd-nre aa to ita supposed track
Irom tbe Slates to our neighborhood I ho prei-umpliou ia
that it came to us Ir in the neighborhood o Iceland. A^.nn,
July IJ (No. ill). the atitom ute record* at our ohserrato
nee show conrluslv.dy that the eyi'louo whico i courted u
the veiy day lor whu n "U* aaiin edtcted did nut eouse irom
IM Atlantic at all, out ?aa loriueu over these islands
Nevertheu a?. all coiisileratione ol till, ualure have been
disreg arded in drawing up tbe present analysis, except in
the caae ot the ai or in oi July t'J (No. iUl. 1 have, in r.et.
endeavored to allow the degree to which tbe American
?arnltifa may have beea uaelul to captamain Brlliih porta.
In aoditiou to the foregoing Mr. Scott takes each
prediction separately and compare* it with the rocord
ml tbe tlatea to which ll refer*, and give* bis opinion
?I tbe fulllimenl or otbrrwlae.
THM MtBALP OllWmi MM. SCOTT'S Cl'MPARlaOX.
Tbe exact language ol Mr. Hcoit in regard to the
Bkmalo predictions being beiore tbe reader, 111* Brat
necessary to sbow buw and where be tnlaappliaa
lerma beiore It la demonstrated that he Ignorea lact*,
?r what mutt be presumed to be *ucb, aa tber are
Jflicialiy recorded In tbe dsitjr weather bulletiaa laaaed
io tbe London preee by the Britiab Meteoroio/ioal
Ufllce. a gentleman ol emmcut poaitlon in tbe world
?r aciunce baa rentnrod to crtticiae wdat be confeas
edljr d<>ea not comprehend, and mull, tbereforo, un
dergo criiiolam bimaelf.
A* Mr. Kcoit'a remarks apply particularly to tbe
Vkkalp prediciluni be ia not juatiUed by tbe terma of
buy one o tlieae or ol any otber Hale men! in tnia
Journal relating to the wcatber in clnlminK tbe Impoa
lihility "ol a meteurologiat in tbe United State* being
able io *ay which out ol tiraral gale* paaaiog out to
?ca irom tbe American coaat will be likely to travel
aero** the Atlantl'! witb unimpaired energy."
A gale ia tbe local efloct ol a paaaing diatarbance,
due to a cooatderable difference heiWeen the condi
tion* ol temperature and procure over tbo area ol the
disturbance and Iboee over one ol adjacent relatively
lilgh preeaure. Tbo gal* doee not paa* ?'out to aea,"
but tlie coniraaung conditions that produce It may
00 to. The gaie will not travel acroa* tbe At
lantlc, but tbe atmo*|iberic diaturhance ol which
it t* ?n effect may do ao without any
01 the cunditlou* being impaired. Hence, ll a gule
prevai a uvur Ohio a g lie will be subsequently eiperl
rnced in New York St ae, provided tbe prevailing con
ditions fawr ita development; but it ia by no meani
certain that It will be (ell, aiibougb tbe dlnturbance
tliat produced It In Obio may move Into New York.
U I* not possible tbal any meteorolugiel in the United
-t*te? eon d aaeert that a gale, aa a distinct efT ct of
tn aimoipheric distuibanco, travel* acroea the ocean;
a*etef?re Mr. Mcott'a reference to auub a poaaiblilty la
I very naaccoanlabia ono.
Ho Ur a* bia paragraph refer* to "tha atalementa of
Mr. Uuchan and otbere, to the eflect tnat certain
tturmi bnve been traced by them rl)>ht acroa* tbe
Atlantic," and to Captain Toyntrae'a report, tbe dia
gram* aocompmying which "abow that atoamera,
when outward bound to Araorie*, often meet
n tucceeaion ol arena of low pressure on
tbeir way eastward, and wben bomeward bound
io Kuropc, often run with such a system (or a consid
erable uae," it would be iitereaiing io know what
pther mean* he would auygeat besidea actual obaerva
lion for deiermintitg transatlantic storm movomente.
II a norm leave* the American coaat and la met by
Miccessiva ahipa lu regularly decraaaing longitudes
a?d within such iimM m lo Imm no douM as to tbe
Ideality of tbe sturiu, una ibat this disiurbance
reaches the European coasts, u II possibls that Mr.
Kcoil deuies that such a series ol observations would
prove anythingT While au Isolated case ol traciug
such a storiu over the Atlantic would not prove Ilia
possibility of a meteorologist in tbe United States
predicting tbe arrival 01 storms lu Europo.it would
undoubtedly lorm the basis or au investigation. If
sucb an iavesugsiion showed bevoud any question
ihst storm movements over tbe ocean are gdveroed
by incomprehensible laws whose exceptional opera
tion la comparatively rare, It clearly follows that a
close and constant study ol socU laws would permit
ol a system ol reliable predictions being based thereon.
Sucb a study baa been made by the Mskald Wcstber
Bureau, and the results ara that even Mr. Scott Is
compelled to admit a failure of only forty-two par
> cent altar straining every possible point snd word
te mpport nis views.
Referring to Protsssor Draper's theory ef storm
movements Mr. Meett remarks:?"Information is da
sirable as te the precise teat sppred te tbe disturb
ance at tbia aide of the Atlantic. Mr. Draper speaks
of storms Tbis word. In our phraseology, would im
ply Force 9 ol Besulort's scale, a strung gale witb a
velocity ol over Bfty-Ove miles au bour." Without
venturing lo enter into any discussion that
may bu raised between Mr. Scott und Mr.
Draper as to tho correctness of their respective opin
ions it is proper to state thai Mr. Scott's rather robust
ideas of what a storm Is or ought to be is somewhat be.
yond those that prevail in America. People in the
Cuited States are quite prepared to accept n forty-mile
wind, or one ol even less velocity, when accompanied
by rain or anow, aa a storm. It is also worthy ol no.
tioe that the British pro?s report "storuu" io Eug
laud with tliiriy-fivo mile winds and declare them to
be very severe, and even the regular weekly weather
bulletin ol the Kew Observatory, published in the Lon
don Timet*I February 1H77, states:?"The weather
was very aiormy, tne velocity of tlio wind attaining a
rate of thirty-seven miles an hour," Jtc.
Any atmospheric diaturbuuen that threatens or
causes serious damage to property or endangers ibo
lives ol seamen or othur persons uiay be called a
storm. Those signalled by tbe Hkkii.ii Weather Bu
reaa aro lu munv Inslnncos below the standard ol
siorms when leaviug the coasts ol this continent, but
Increase in eoergy as they advance eastward. They
not uufreqocntly disorganize to some extent when ap
proaching the Azorea or passing over tbo mid Atlan
tic, but recover their euergy again over the British
Inlands, Norway or In tbu Baltic. All these ctiangcs
are due lo variations lu tin- relatious ol conditions,
and but rarely ol the conditions themselves.
lu enumerating the different attempts made to util
ize the cablee lor weather wurniuga Mr. Scott ig
nores the work ol the lute M. l,o Verrier,
who, co-operating with British officials in
lSt>5-'6, employed the cable iu receiving
messages from Newfoundland. For ihe same reason
as Mr. Scott's arrangement during 186S-71 tailed that
of M. ii* Verrier proved unsuccessiul; but the late
distinguished Director of the Observatory ol Paris did
uol venture to a.->o.gu failure lo the saiuo cause. Me
plainly told the HiwKalo representative iu Pans that
III success was due to the want ol a competent ob
server in Newfoundland who would watch and signal
storms advancing toward the coast Irom the Interior
of the American continent. The ch.iris in the "Alias
dos Movemeuls Ueueraux de I'Altnospbore," pub
lished under M Le Verrler's direction, are based on
observations taken with iho object ol establishing the
transatlantic passage ol American storms. Mr. Scott
appears uol to be aware ol ibia undertaking when be
says:?"The nrst practical proposal for such a service,
aa far aa I am aware, was luade to ois in August,
1807," and adds:?
\V? received till) telegrams gratis for the space of nearly
lour years, through [lie tcra.it liberality of tlio :.n?h - \ rneri
ran Telegraph Company. nut ?? could not turn them to
practical Use, partly uwin? to the citcuraatance that the
(lie of the station *?> cbosea ss a sheltered nooa erliura nu
sturiu coald possibly hurt Hie cable, so that tlie wiud lelt a
the baud of tbe bay and retorted to us buro lull* lelation
to that bluwlu.' outside.
I'artly because tbo weather observer at teart's Con
lent Bay fu sheltered out *1 the wind, partly bccauae
Mr. Scott believes "thai it is all but impossible to pre
dict which storm out ol several starling lrorn tbe
States will reach as," tbe cable system was dropped
when tbe Anglo American Telegraph Company pro
posed to charge lor tbe messages. In support ot bis
belief that storm* cannot be tracod over the ocean
Mr Scott quotes Professor Loom is' opinion, wblcb is
as follows:?
When norms from the American eontln nt enter unon
tbe Atlantic Mlleaa they ceuerally unuerico Imuortant
cuanitei In a few day* and are lre>ju uilv margeu in otner
storms wuieli appear to originate ov r the oc< an. ?o tliat
we aeldoui Identity a storm lu its course entirely acroai tbe
Atlantic.
Tbe daily observations during eighteen months In
lfr>6-6by tbe captains of a large number of vessels scat
tered over tbe occsn, as well as tho?e of tbe Atlartlc
coast ol America and ol tbo eulire ol Europe have boon
charted sod tne isobars traced as oareluily as possi
ble by tbe meteorologists SI tbs l'aris Observatory.
In tbs large majority of tbese cnarts it Is clearly
shows tbst storms do not pass over the ocoan In such
numbers as to render any possible con.ustou la their
ldontiQoalion. Neitner can there be lound more than
s lew lustaoces In which storms develop over tlio
great meteorologlual Held ol the North Atlaolic, ex
cept ID or quite ueur tbo tropical zone ol that ocean,
and these cyclouic disturbances aro reinarKiiuly lulre
quent. Tbo storms leaving tbe coniluent off the New
Luglaud uuu New Brunswick coasts do so in the great
m ajority of cases with considerable intervals betwoen
their centres?intervals tnat are marked by ooDdltions
wh cb generally prevent the uuton ol the storiu ari as.
Gates are known where two and cveu Hires storm
centre* enter what might be turmoil the same generul
area of low pressure, but these instance? are rarn,
and tbe storm centrcs never lose their luontity.
Kvn when passing over tins continent the centre*,
or, properly, the vortices of storms, travel stdo by
side without losing their individual organization.
Subsidiary cent! es developed by tlio tnovetuoul of
origioal storms?that is to say, storms whose courses
have been traced across lbs continent rarely merge
with the main disturbances alter bo>h bavo passed
over tns coast line into tbo unobi-tructed
plans of tbs ocoso, and then only uuJer pecu
liar cireuiuslaocns. There Is scarcely a possibility
that any carelul observer who has a proper concoc
tion ot the movement ol storms will fall In rrooums
ing the Identity of each disturbance that leaves the
Amsricaa coast. Tns steamship reports, lurni?be<l
regularly to to* Hshalu Weather Bureau by exper
ienced commander*, show tlie reguiar procession
eastward of all depressions, and an instsue* lias net
yet oeourred of a 'ailnre on ti>s part of the liuresu to
recogmxo them. Another important lact worth noting
IB conneotioo with tins question is that a diagram of
tbe barometria osclllattoos, kept lor tno Hkkalii
Weather Bureau at Queen?towu, Ireland, durum Ml,
shows depression lor depression with tbe IIkmalo'*
predictions lor tb-il region. Mr. beett may regard
sucu coincidences as the re tilt of mere chance, bui
bemud thoni come the records ot steamship ouserva*
tiona that complete tbe evidence.
Mill another fact is that tbo IIkkalu Weather Bu
reau predioteU the arrival ol storm* on certain part*
?I tbe Kuropeau eoas;s?such a*, for the "llritlsb,
French and Spanish coast*;" the "British aud Kroucn
toasts; " the "British coast" only, and tlie ".North
British aad Norwegian coasts." Oo consulting tbe
records It Is found tnst the storms struck where pre
dicted la the large majority of instances. New if
Ibere were no reliable means of determining * hers
tbese atorms would to alter leaving ibe Americau
coasts, could It be posslbls to predict Ibelr arrival on
particular sections of the Kuronesn coast with any
degree ol succo** t If tbs storm* merged with others
d< veloped oo the Atlantic bow could mere OUisc*
govern the precise arrival ol storms in Kurope m ac
co-dance wttn tbe Ukkald's predictions msde from
throe to six days ahead 1' I'lie Hhkalu Weatbor llarean
ba* discovered what it regards a* being tbe gensr tl
law goveraiag the movement ol storms over ths At
l*title and sll the abnormal operations ol tbt* law are
known and soasidored when a prediction is made.
Let it be understood by the render that not merely a
warning I* sent by cable, but a positive prediotlon
giving the date el the storm's arrival in Kurcpe and
tbe character It will, in all probability, have assumed
en route. Mr. Scott, who baa undertaken to criticise
this worn and to create the linpruiaiou nmoof his
Kngllsh rssdors tnat "ibe Amartcsu storm warn
ings" are of comparatively utile value, did not know
tbe Ubrald system el observation and prediction
wben be wrote Ms criticism. Us stated to a rspre
sentstive ol tbs Hkralii in London Hint "the warn
inns can bo ol bo (clentillc value unless the mixlui ej>.
tramli is disclosed." He even suggests in hi* article
for tbe Nautical Magaiins of Maron:?
Is tbe present stats ol out knowledge ?s are of the opin
ion tliat much more good would tie dune ny ouulUliin^ the
Isets on which the Issue ol tns warning is irom time to
time based. It vui bs impossible te uuututs a tbsreeclUr
satlsiseterjr testing ?' the warnings BBtli we hare b?for?
u? a .ubs ?erie? oi ayuupiic chart* ?f ths ?lod? and weather
esisiluic ImIwssu America and tuiupo.
Notwiibainnd ng tbo facia ibat Mr. Scolt did not
know bow ilie predictione are mad*; that be expresses
a desire lo know, and that be deems II impossible to
institute a saiiefsetory leal unltl be possesses the
necessary luformation to lead to a correct result, he
does not hesitate to pronoucco uulavorubiy on the
Hbkald system of predictions alter making bis "pri
vate Inquiry."
Wub regard to tbe announcement that "tbe first
actual storm warning reoeived by tbe Meteorological
Offloe from tbe Unuad St a lea was eu Thursday, Oe.
cembar 24, 1874," and tbai "H was soot Iron the
Central Signal Office and was wordsd as lollows:?'A
low barometer, witb wind fifty nil on per bour, leti our
coast on Sunday, on fortiatb parallel, and going east.
Look out lor it"' Such a message, which can scarcely
be called a warning and gives no Inlormstion as to
tbe character of ibe storm, was lorwaraed on tbe
fourth dsy alter tbe Sunday referred to. Between
that day and tbe 31st, or eleven lull days, tbe
woatber was flue in the British lslssds. Mr. Scolt
calli this '?warning" a failure. In what did it tall*
Nothing was essayed by tbe sender that could fall.
He informed Mr. Scott that a storm centra.bfid left
ibe American coast aud invited tbe Meterological
Office iu London to "look out for it." Tbe storm,
However, did not reach tbe British coasts in any char
acter or witbln any time that was officially recognized
by the office in relation to the message. How tlie cir
cumstances iu this case support Mr Scott's deduc
lions is not appureut. The geueral result of tbe in
quiry is expressed in the declaration "that not
forty-five par cent of tbe wtrnings can be couaidered
to ba really successfulthat U lo say, "the informiw
lion conveyed by tbera was ol real value to seamen in
British ports."
Assuming, for tbe present, that the estimate of
loriy-flve per cmi is corroct, does not even that per
centage prove something? Forty-live per cent ol
succcbs is in atroug coutrsst with Mr. Scott's ballet
in the impossibility oi correct prediction from Ibo
United States. What is represented by tbe forty-five
per rent of success?mere chance or correct predic
tion based on sound principles?
Mr. Scott suys:?"'Iho intimation to outward bound
sbips tnat b id weutbtir Is prevailing ut the* other side
of tbe Atlantic at tbe time ttiey are leaving port over
bere muv, of course, be uselm." Considering that the
"bad wtatbor" or storm travels towarl the westward
bound hhip-i the inform,ition murt be highly important,
but the Hkkald Weather Bureau nas never iiniitod tlie
locality aflecled by bad weather lo this western side
ol the Atianua It has never conveyed Uie iiupres
^ou, directly or indirectly, that tbe "bad weather"
did not advance eastward in couformuy witb tbe gen
eral law of storm movements. The ocean progress of
ttio Hkkai.d Weathor Bureau Rive the progress of Ibe
?-bad weather" aud tbe manner iu wmcb it la ex
perienced by westward bound steamers and other
vessels.
Turning lo "the actual wording of the warnings,"
Mr. Scolt remarks mat tbe predictions "are framed
with more rolereuce lo the conditions of a continen
tal climate. witn its abrupt cbau^us, such as prevails
in Ibe Uulled Stales, man lo the more genial circum
stances in which wa live, iu uu oceanic ciliuate iu
Ibeso islands." Tue IUkai.d Wealner bureau
musi Hi ere lore be, in Mr. Scott's opinion,
wholly unaware of Iho conditions that pre
vail in Kurope, and particularly in the British
Islands. The "geuial circumstances" ol Sunday,
March 24, in Eugland were very seriously disturbed
by "abrupt changes." Iu truth, ibasiorm thai swept
England and caused the sudden and deploraole loss ol
ibe Eurydico aud Iter crew wua one of those disturb
ances which tba British Meteorological Office la not
in the habit of anticipating. Tbo fact tbai the II eralu
Weather Bureau warned England aix daya before ibe
storm arrived affords strong proof that something is
known in Amerloa about Eiglisli weather. As lo the
heavy rains Mr. Scott say a it is alwaya sale lo predict
ihatn "at all seasons." Curionsly enough oe tukes
occasion to abow in hla tabular analysis ol iho
IIkhald predictions that long periods ol dry woaiher
occur in England. Would it bava been aale to pre
dict rainn under such circuuistaatesf
But Mr. Scolt qualifies wliai ha baa already ad
mitted in lavor of tbe Herald predictions aud sug
gests;? "11 must not be lorgoiieu tual the fact ol a
gala beiug reported on the day lor whiob one bus
boen foretold does not necessarily prove that tbe
gale felt bore has been the same aiorm as left the
American coast." This Is only puttlug ibe ''impossi
bility " argument in another form. Of course, il it
?a impossible ibat ibe atorms can cross ibe ocean aud
preaarve ibair identity ibey cauuol reach Eugland as
they left America. Bui from ibe fact thai tney do
cross tbe oceao and preserve their feeuttiy, and have
been traced iroui const line lo coast hue, the galas duo
to them in England aro caused by ibe same disturb
ance that caused similar galea iu America. Mr. Scon
again confounds the gale with the storm, the riled
with ibe cauae, but probably mesna tue latter whan
ho ralera to tbe dlsturbauca croaslug me ocean.
Us cannot unaerstaud bow iho storm eouiro of Feb
ruary 19, la77, coming Irom the northwardoyerEngland
can be lue aatuu aa that announced ..s leaving iue aoier
Cau coast. liu says, "ibe presumption la lint it came
to ob from the usighborhood 01 Iceland." Dot as bo
admits tuo ituuos?ibiiily of tracing storm* weatw <rd
or io any direction Irom ibe Uru.au ooasts, in a scieu
tltlc inve-tigator ba la not Jus .flod iu uuy "presump
Iiud" about their cuur?e.->. It happens, however,
ibai I bo fury uiovemeut he proteases not to under
?land Baa long ago been fully accounted lor in tbo
record* oi tba Ukkald Weather Buru.iu, una was ex
plained to It. La Vrrrter la a communication wlih
charts, dated July 10, 1877. Tbe storm did uot couio
"Iroiu tbo uuigUborboud ol Iceland" as the regiou ol
ita origiu, but la a general northeasterly course irom
Newfoundland, and was preceded and to I .wed
by ureas ot blgb barometer, b?twevn wiinib a
great undulation ol tlieir zm.o line occurred
lu wh.cti tue storm centre moved. Wi cu
It rescued a latnudoa little northwestward ol scotluud
aod between that country and Iceiar.d inn lunli pres
sure iu advance ol it extended rapidly over Norway
and dwedeu and tbe Baltic, wutletne ureabebiud It re
ceded southward slowly, so as to direct tbo movement
ol ibe storm centre toward the east uud soulbeaat and
over tne Uritiiii Islands. The cuango* mat uilooivd
tbe moveuiaut of tbis storm were due to Hie ti.llueucea
ofltoim ceniras tn.it preceded and followed tnal ol
February 10, 1877. Mr.' ttcoti claim* *'tbat tbe cy
clone" ol July 15, "which occurred on the very day
lor wbiehouewas predicted, did not come Iroui the
Atlantic at ail, but was loruied over tue*e lalande."
Ilulc rring to tbe eiKlit A. >1. odlcial bulletin ol the
British lI''ti ori>lo?icsi OMoe puulisbed In tbe London
Tvnrt' ??Kcgister o! Events" lor July 19, tbe lallow
in d statement I* lound:?"Pressure is highest
uvor tlio l'cuin?ula, lowest oil our nortiiweat
c-asl, and Ibere seems to be s new de
pres-lOB approaching our western nations Irom tlio
Allmue.'' Uu tbe I4ib the olllcial bulletin sayst?
??Tbe baronuter couliuucs to lull steadily over the
Qltlsd Kingdom and France, but is risiug a little In
tiie Uull ol Uotbulaaud aweden. It remains lowest lo
tne westward ol our islaud." Un tne lutn "a large
aud wall defined barometrical depression i?y over tbe
north of Ki'gland tbia moruius aud preaaure waa de
creaking in all parts of Western Europe." On tbe
lflth, 171U aud 19tb Ibis centre moved irom England
io eoutbera Norway. Tbe diagrams accompanying
each bulletin Irom tbe Meteorological OiDce, ol' which
Mr. Scott binmell la the executive cbicl, Indicate
plaiaiy tbe niovement ol tbe cycloue centre and tbut
tbe storm was uot "lormeu," aa he alleges, over tbe
Bntisii Islands, although ita energy decidedly Increased
lo that | osluun. To give foroa aud value to bis
opinion ?'that as j ot the attempt* to foroiel) weather
b> meaos ol tbe Atlantic cables have uot uiot with a
very raurucd measure of fucocss," Mr. Hcott rau?t
eatabllsh beyond a duubl ihat storms do not cross tba
ocean. U I* a simple matter of investigation, not of
speculation, to determine ibe movtftueui of atormt
irom tue American continent to Europe. So lar all
tbe valuable and direct evidence supports the belief
tii at tbe atorms do crosa It Is on tins evidence,
formulated luto a law, that the Hirald Weatner Bu
reau bases Its predictions, and although llr. boon's
comparisons would leao to tbe opinion that tbe suc
cess ol tbess predictions h?s been limited to lorty-Ove
per cint, they conflict strangely with the official dally
bolletibs Issued to the BritUb press, presumably un
der hia immediate direction.
rnK mxnicTiojis arb sroi.imii wraths*.
A comparison between the conditions predicted by
the Hrrauo Weather Bureau and those lust prevailed
In tbe British Islanjs on the corresponding dsys
utigui to bo or>e in wbioh no serious error could pos
sibly arise. Tbe predictlooa wets dellulte enough.
Tl.ey rare tbo datoa of tbe probable arrival of storma;
lbs character ol lbs alarms aud al attendant pbauom
eaa, noh M rain, wow, gaMs, Mgbtnlng tad abangea
ol temperature. A reference to the bulletin* ol tho
Brltlah Meteorological t?fj a would apparently estab
lish beyond a doubt whether or not lbs predicted
conditions arara experienced. Yot whoa ine Soot I 4e
<1 actions drawn from the** conditions, as relating to tbo
predictions, ara oompared wiin tba official bulletin*,
grave discrepancies are dl>covercd thai raduoe very ma
terially tba vulua ol tba deduciiooa or ol the bulletins.
Tba question of correctness ruuat tbarofore ba flrat
deoiued betweea tba daily baliatlaa aa published in
tba London press, which ara syuopses of tba records
of dally observations ssario audar ibe diractlon ol tba
Britlab Meteorological Office, and tba ataiamenta of
Mr. Scott aa to tba conditions ol weather ibat pre
?ailed on corresponding days, beiore aoy comparison
can ba sall?faciorllv made between ibe wsutber pre.
dieted by tbo Herald aua that exrerieuced. The
general data on which such a comparison can be made
are contained lo the publlabad bulletin* la tbe London
Timet lor every evening except Saturday at six o'clock
and In tba Timet' "Register of Eronta for X877,'?
wbicb gives tba morning bulletin (eight A. M.)
for every day except Sunday tbrougbout tba year]
the weather correspondence and fli pping reports
published in the Tiau*; tbo Hniletm JntemationaU ol
the I'aria Observsiory; tbe ocean steamship reports ol
Iho Iikkald W'-attier Bureau and othor records con.
nee ltd therewith ou the oue band, and the remarks ol
Mr. 6colt, in bla tabulation of tbe predictions and tba
resulla aa duierminod by bun, on tbe other.
la tola labu<aied auaiy*is, cutitled "A Comparison
ol Auiericau Waruiugs with British Weather in 1677, * *
oogniaanca is lakcu ol tbtrly-six warning telegrams
relorring to different disturbances sent br tho mskai.d
I between February IS ami December 14, 1*77. In that
j period there were forty-one telegram* sent to London,
I live of which Mi". .Scon has not noticed In bia com
pariaon. They ara ol March 9, April 12, Mav 17, July
22 and August 18 Ol these tho Drst two and the Inst
were completely fn I 111 led according to tba comparison
with tbe official bulletins published in the London
Timet. Tho otuer two were partly fulfl'lod, according
to tbo same authority. Of the warnings noticed by Mr.
Scott those ol thol7tband 23a of April referred to
only oue disturbnuce, as explained In Ibo Hhrai.doI
Ffb'uary 22, 1878. The messago'dated September 20,
warns aa follows:?"A dangerous cyclono is about
to cross tbo Atlantic northward of the Bermudas, and
will probably reacb the BritiBb and French co. ats on
the 27th. witb heavy gaies and raina " l'he cyclone
proved to he one of very slow movement and did not
arrive us predicted, and Irom observations of us prog
ress subsequently made a special message waa seut
referring to It as follows:?"A cyclonic storm is cross
ing tbe Allaulic on a course parallel to aud about ten
decrees uorth ol a line drawn Irom the Bermudas
through tbe Azores lo tbe Bay ol Biscay. The wiud*
aro vory violent, but the progress ol the btorm is
slow. It is attended by ligbtuiug and heavy ruins."
As statod in the Hi:rali> ol February 22 last
??litis was lutendod as a special warning lor ve?
sols about to leave purl lor ilie westward."
But Mr. Scolt, lo his analysis, trials the two messages
us referring to two distinct storms, uud calls the last
one a "total lalluro," although it was not a predicuou
in any sense, but simply a supplementary message.
Again, he lalls into an error ol dates, and conlounds
the lulQIment of a prediction which bo does not quota
ill his list witb Ibat ol another warning. Although ho
admits that tbe warning was an "entire success," it
was not so lor tho iiieKKjge lie erroueously quotes witb
It, In presence ol this curious comparison it is ex- |
trnraMy difficult to lollow ibe line ol Mr. Scott's criti
cism without dtvoting morn apace to the subject than
can bo spared lor tbo purpose In these columns. It is,
however, essoutial ibat evidence be producod bearing
on the more striking insiances ol dill-rente between
tbe atatementof Mr. Scott as Secretary ol the Meteoro
logical Council and director ol tbe Weather Bureau ol
England In ibe daily bulletins issued lo toe press,
and tbose of the same gentleman when pursuing a
'?private It-quiry" into tbe merits of tbo "Amoriuiin
siorm warnings."
The seven predictions which sro admitted to have
been attended with "eulire success" during 1877 ara
those dated February 16, Marnb 10, April 14, October
23, November 8 and 14 and December 8. The ouly ob
jections raised lo ino Oral prediciiou are tbat "The
message gave no indication of ibt |?r<-babie direction
of tbo wind'* and also tnat ?'the path ol the
storm Irom noribwest to southeast did not
aocord with what might have beeu anticipated
bad It crossed tbo Atlantic." With regard to these
objooilons ibe flrst needs no answer, sa it is likely Mr.
Scott by this time sesa Ua unimportance. Tbe socond
betray* bis want ol larallisritv with tbe movomuni of
storms approaching the British roasts, and is ex
plained by his admission of a difficulty he baa experi
enced in tracing storm paths westward. 01 tbo pre
diction ol Murou 10 be says: -"Tbo flrst disiurbaoco
was not a'ill lied in tbo telegrum, and It w.<s nearly as
serious as tbe socond, which was virtually a subsi
diary ono to II, tbougb tbe tore* ol the wind in it was
groat." A reference to Ibe offioial bulletins and
cbarta shows that ibero wera not two disturbances,
but ono wblea underwent several changes wbiio over
the British island*. Mr. Scott has evidontly niisiakt-u
one ol Ibeso changes for the movement of a now
a -prexMou wli'U mucins lin "private inquiry,"
fur do relert nee is made to iwo disturbances n any of
the offl'ial bulletins ana charm ittuid Iroui hi* office
on the day* reierrcd to tn hu criticism. The bulletin
ol eight A. M. of the 14'ti, relerri ig to tbe storm
ccutru tbst moved to the Norwegian coast ou the 12th >
and 13ih, any s:?'-Tlie depression wbioh lay near
Ciiriatiausund h.m apparently remained almost ata- |
ilouary, ihu lowest reading being still reported irotn
I that stailoa this morning." H is impossible to dm- I
I cover wheie Mr. fcott has lound iho two disiurbnncos ,
to which ho refer*. It Is ai?u UilUcult to understand |
with him bow the greater disturbauce can be sub- ,
stdinry 10 tho letter oue, eveu il ihuy existed in
lact. Kor the piodiction ul April 14, with which he '
(liy a con(a><ion ol date*) connects the luillimeut ol |
number wurulng message, he permit* liiuieeil to cou>
tr.tdict h s own statements, msiie In an nojoiuiim
column, with regard to the directions ol the gules that
prevailed.
KctnurKiog on lb* prediction dated October 23 Mr.
I Scott ag'iin evidently Ul s Into error regarding the pro*- ,
i lintty ol ihe storm to ihu Br:tisn coasts. Jiasayt:?
I '-Oil the night ol lb* 20th a depression skirted our
I wesi and norihwest cousis, causing some gsles." Ti.e
I oflKlal bulletiuh aud charts malts the stoi m area, ol
i which there were two can ires ol aisturbauca, cover
{ i lio British Islands.
The Idiogoing ?re what must be termed the inac
I curacies lu Mr. Scott's comments on the predictions
to whoso (uilliintnis be applies the worua, "enure
success.'* Tuose that are marked "partial suocese"
are commented on witii si 111 greater tlflereuccs be- j
tweou tits official unil personal emieintnii-. Ihu ca-e
ol ihe prediction dated Ketiruury 21, 1877, Mill be
audit lent lor illustration:?
(itasi.n prrdtelloa Cen. II )-"K*rcl uniavoiable
? eath, r, with gale, r rid ?? or r>alurday (Xid or J4tti>, lur
Hi Hull, i reuelt and .Spanish eeasts."
{tVealber avnopals het ti). - ",?t the dais el receipt of
tbe telegram presatne w at UUIte>l In the w at. wiiu lia?b to
?trunu loo tlierlv wlntji over I'.ngland. Un the nulit ol
the 2 lu a ilei>r*atiun croaaed the north ol .--ColUiid. utiom
ihu oe-per *< ll proiiie.aed, and the wealerlr winds in
? reasetl lo a gate si * lew atatlons lu tb* n.rth ana west na
Malurde.y n gilt, but tliere ?m m> ram to inciter.''
(HvUtlotf lu warning?scotl) ? "Partial anceets lor
northern stations, b. total lat ins f?r aunili wub Krauts
anil ftpain. d; gen r?l result, e."
(iteuiarka-.aeoit.) 'On i>nn4ay slyOt a anbtldlary dlt
tuibanee t russed Rutland Irom lbs >>S. un i prnUmed
MV. aud <K galea ll#l, *, d on th* northern Krenrh coasts.
I ha We?tfcer ceeld noi bs described as 'tinfeeomble' (what
ever tliat mav imply) emll ibe hune y, whan ilie raid be
lougen to tlie subsiaian disturbance "
(ollhlai uil. un. >u I'. >1, ^.M, London Tinuu, Feb,
S.'t.l ?"Liurlng tbu tuomlug a lather dai.p ilipre.-liin baa
pa*aed across tlie northeast ol Reoitan.j And now Ilea over
the >orth >aa eaet nf A'lcriie-n. ? ? ? Tlie? itU.? tlnJn
are mooaral* to hevh In lores In nieit plac< s but olow a
I retli tals Ht.M?rnu?ay. I lis tay i? clear ?l Arnroi.an,
a .tl uaariy vi ?t .siueltu. inn slu'w are li it ovareatt. win.
rain, ai ?evaial tiuileni. au<l li .11 ami -i.ow si tornoway
arm Yarmouth lbs tea l> iotit:li III tbu Mincli and In
M. tit eras t Channel. (lur wetf, norm sail t asi suama
bavs tie*-n warn* I to-diy."
ibe chsrt sccompanlng (bis bulletin shows "a
gale" on Scottish couet, and dull, rainy ana equally
weather over tbe British Island*.
(Offletal bulletin, eight A. M., Keh 2.1. ? Timm' Regltter
or h?oitia"> ? ??m.owars ol scow and rain leil at almoat all
tue itritish niatlum y aisrdaj
Tbe chart Hceotnpanyiog this bulletin sbowi strouger
northerly wind* over lreiaud and Wteiern Kuglaud
und the liay ol Biscay, atronf north'-ast and nwrth
west winds id ^rante and Northern ttpaln, with ao#w
and rain reepectivei/.
(tlfflrlal bulletin, tlx P. M.. Feb. 23, London Time* of
24tb.; "The preaent tll?turban<'e Is apparently net very
neap, bat aa the weather I* so unsettled the warning tin*
iinis which wars nolstsu yesterday morulas anil remain in
lone in the nerthwast sud east."
The chart snows general oloadlncaa, loeal rains and
logs and Krone winds.
(Ilffli'lal bulletin. ? I a 111 A. M., Ksb 24. 'Tim'*' Reglitsr
el E?entS "/?"Ilia centre of an estentlfe but not eery
lie p depteaslon unw net between the Mistland Itlanot
? ml Norwty. The a?T I" very eloa.iy except off ?ur north
ern! coaale, sntl rain la IaiIiiik at the southeastern ttallnus
at well asm tbe nortueaat m Ireland."
Tho chart ahowa squally and doll weather In Ire
land a&4 SKOtlanUi duU or eleud/, with raina and fog.
In England; dill ud rainy la Franc* and tbe Nether
lunoa, and rain and mow in Denmark and tbo Nortb
8es, with aaow sad strong wlod* in Norway. Tue
indicated waatber in northern Spain is cloudy.
(Ofttciai balls tin. its P. M.. teb. Jb. Um?luu r>???
2titb.) ?"Sin.? Friday avemug two depression* have passed
in Mn ea?l-?oathea?ierly dirertli.u across Hie noita of .-vol
landaadtUe North .-ca and travailed aw ay "Ver b?auul
?invl*. Tlia Brat of ihtse which passed duriug the nulit ol
Friday and morula* of Saturday ?h of comparatively
slight importance. but thai ui me pan uigbt was aseper,
cauxlnv a fall of mere than tuur-liuth of an n.cb in Sd>l
laud aud rrtfuoiiiK pressure to 2B.H luaaaa in nit w?i ol
Norway. In consequence gradients becaui* very st-sp oa
our coasts a?d the wiud rose lo a uard or fresh u?le at
moat of our western, northern and auriaeasieru untloni
during last uuht or 10 ? uinrsuig. Oi|r weal, uortl. an I
nortliea<t coasts were warned on Saturday and our >< aiu
and soailieaatcoasts this ?v?ning."
Tb* cuart show* "ugly," "squally," "showery,"
?Moggy" and ''dull" weatbar, with stormy winds lor
southern portions of the Hrltisa uUuds, bat gifaa no
indication* for France or 6pal n.
(official bu.lelin, eight A. U.,Feb. 27. "Time*' lteglster of
Events.";?"Tbe weather since Saturday baa usen in a must
unaettlad state It line wiud) baa ulewu vary strongly
over nearly ibe whole ol these lilands during the pad
fortv-elgnl hours, and (till Mown a moderate gals in tbe
Channel and a b rd gats iu the Netherlauua Tns ?ky I*
deal over Scotland, cloudy eiaawbara, with showers ol
snow over fcaglaBd."
Tbe obari shows the above conditions, witb "dull"
and clondv weather and enow in the Netherlands, call
and cloudy weatbar in Northern France, ram and
at rone wmda iu Northern sputa.
(special correspondence Tiitum, Feb. 24) ?"Kiahisunrd,
Soulu \\ ales, Kbi.. ?iVe U tve m;aiu oxperiunce i a
strong .lie here, and the wind liavlug sullied to the north
eiut uiade tbe position ol tbe ships ?'! aucnm in the oar
Very uen.out At ball-i>ari one o clock mis inoiuiu* sig
nal* ot distress worn oxliitijted Iroin three vtit lt. there
was a lear'u. sea rolling in ai tin. t.ine "
(UKiULU statement. i eli. J, |N7n. baaed oil ofli 'ial bul
1*911i<k. 4 '.)- ' 1 he prediction ?<> completely iu Hiied. The
depru moii arrivuu on the i veiling ol ine --1 oil ^i;otUn<i,
anil m iv.nl southeastward witb ?tmu? gaiea Mid run* to
UiS ueriosn Ocean (NoriU Sea . ' " noutli Wales a severe
gala raged, uau-in;; loss of shipping and ottter dam ?*?.
'Ibe storm extended iroiu Norway to npaui. with very
heavy galea duriux me U'>tli and bfllh."
From tbo lor?KOiu^ extract* u is preuy cvidout
that "uoiiivor.ibie woatijar" pruvailud Uuioro buui^iy,
unci thai ibt ro wan a good dual of riun "to inutiui"
wilb Kdlos at a< veml siulious. It will ulao be aeeu
that tbe predlullou wag not a "ioui failure" lor tiie
Souib and France and ripaiu, and tbat u waa literally
iuiliiled aa lo date aud Con Jitiuus ol weather. Oilier
inataiices ol where absolute iuiaimeuis are treated ua
??partiui" or "tery partial" aucccj -e?, or "total (ail
ure*," occurr througboui the tubular ataieinenu ol
Mr. Si.oit, out tbeir dibcu^aion would mvoiTo tune
and space lliul cmittot ho now spared to It. How
ever, a ami'le case ol "ttitnl lailuro" accoiding to tin'
Si-oil lablt's will be suniuiuut to show wuetber the
prediction rolerred to lulled or not.
(IU itai n prediction aud ? amlng, Feb. U">.) '"Probabliltv
bai ?e thar with a 1 n, riritikh and French coasts ahor
Ihurajay. ' (Marco I.)
i^i'allier syn'opda-hedt1.1 ?**On Tfi .raday ni?.lit. ?i?;li
I a slight iieprtnoi iii p iaaed frotu O. VV. to N. n. uBtalde
our wost ru nod north a est ru coasts. Jt produced no vate
except s. SV. H at -toriirtway atd m> ui.d treathor at all."
iKelaltiiK to warainji?scon.t " 1'eial Uiluro. 1?.''
(uvinaraa--Scoti.)?1?'Til. Ili turl>aii. aiay ponib ) have
been that relerrmt to in tbe lei cram ; but no K<Ue at ail
0-cunod."
i iltioial liulletlu eiuhf. .v. M.. March 1. Time*' Keuiiter of
1-.veuia. 1?"f lie ?kv laovoicaxi in the wiat ; clear or nearly
so in moat otUur placea. |lie si:a it rough, ojutipt iu tbe
south, tt aruloga were laautid to Ireland la teventUK."
ii'Aiclal bulletin, kix P. JI . .llarob 1 -I'iinin, Maiob 2.) ?
"I'be fall of the b ironicter vhic.i hail cotuuie ccd in l "
toutuweat ol Ireland last evening haa'eoiitinui'd Steadily
ii !>? eattnda I to all pans ol iu? Un teu Kill* lo.II. I'bo
wind ha* hi.-iiii to blow a mo'leraie gale ut V'a eutla litis
evening, altli a tUreaiemiia 11???- arance. .;niu i* lailiug nt
II ui *? Cmile and berd. ea, wlule rtpiruoway reuor a a
stormy apimurance ol ibe sky. ilic Iria', coasta w re
m ai niiu l ist uiglit and tho Wa.a4ngli s ln*?n exi. n led lo
our northwotlurn and noitbern coasta and ricoueiid this
tvenlng. '
Chun shown the iibove couailions, with strong
winds in Bay ol UiacMy and on Norwogiuu coast. Mo
indications are givou lor Fiance.
(OlUcial balleUa. eight .V. M., Manh a?Time*' KeglMer
ol I.vents ) 'the decrease of pmss ii' w! leu bud cum
nietiued at our western >tat ona vest ?rday in ruin^' liai e\
leuded to all parts ol ihuse islaiida and Hie west of t rauoe.
I.nln link baeu gen ral nv.-r theae la.auds and continues
this oioriilii. la the aoulh. itnow I* tailing iu Norwai.''
1 be cn.irl abows geueral cloudiness and rain exempt
In Noitbaastern Scotland, aud ,'aull" woatbor>
"tniat" and "raio" In Fraocm
{Timta, woatlier artlc.e. March :i"Afior three day* of
yevere Irost the wiud cbanueu to iIih soul iwest on fburs
day evenlug. anu a rapid iliaw set in. aidad by n heavy tail
ol lain, ? inch continued a,i to yesterday luor .iax.'1
(IIkkai.d cum amun, KA, -I, ?' I ills prediction
was comp elaur luitllled. Tbe storm began on the evening
oi the 1st of ilurcb. Hail showers aud rain al?enueo tbe
iiiuvemem ol tin- di-nr. salon soume.ist?aid toward central
Kurope during tha'Jd Ml sad 4tb ol Jiiareb."
Wuvre ibe cuaioinary abbreviation ol tbe cable mes
sage causae tbe oioiaaiou ol a word, without, however,
la any way rcuderiug tue meuniug ol tbe sentence
Ui ubuul, Mr. Scott does not apimar to bave recoy
uized tbe abbreviation, out baa based bla inquiry, 4&,
ou a sentence cobstructed of tbe words oabied, without
regard lo their true relatione. Ho Irequeutly rulom
rainer vaguely to wkat tbo leuder ol the meBmite
must bave intended to convey, aud on this supposi
tion bullda a criticism ol tbe prediction aud a
comment on it* "(allure." Again, when tbo
cable mMM(i IUUI that a norm or deoreasion
will arrive, say on ibe British coast about
the 14tb, it certuinly means ih.it ibe disturbance m.iy
reach inure on the duy heuro or the day alter the
14lb. In several cases Mr. Scott net* down aa lailurcs
predictions embodying ibe quuillyiug word "jOuui,"
because the events predicted did not occur on tbe
exact dale given. A* a storm U staled to arrive on a
coaai when us marginal lorce* are 11 rat ?xper.enced
i>o it ia supposed to last a? long aa tbo mttrg.n.il lorcca
continue to operate. Siortns sometimes croaa ibe
British lalasda in lusa th u twenty-our buura. On
tbe oiher baud, tbey li ivu liugeiol on the passage
lor si veral days. iueobj ctol tbu limam Weatbwr
rvice la the prediction of tbu arrival of
storms on the coast ol Kuropc. Alter tbe dis
turbances arrive iiirre in? local ohacrvatioua
are suppoaed to determine ibeir character. Lul.v,
It mutt be rent' ifchered that there ato ab >ut
Ave I.ours dlllcrencc <>f time between New Yorfc and
l.ondon; ihut very many ui tbu Loudon niormox
pupera aro uot published on Sunday ; tbat lue h jum
ol publication are llitil, wblle ihuao lor atorm move
ments vary. Coiia?que<itly, a Variant sent ou Fr d .y
at titidul^lit would be too lute lor Saturday's ftMci or
otber London morning journal, would not be published
on .Sunday and would appear ou Monday morning, pos
aibly when the eveut it predicted was occurring. Hot
lunately tbe Loudou Bureau ol tuu Ukhai.o I or war..*
thr pre< iclioti.? at onev to ino provincial pre** and
sumo ol ill<' Loudou tvoiiui, pamrs i ubllsh ilium, no
that ibe service to the puolio ia inaiuinued, but uot
without aome diineuiiy. Home oltbeHiKaLo warning*
are commented ou by Mr. bcott aa beiog loo lute, lu
tbu mailer ol transmission irom tbe Ubkai.d Weather
Uure..u ID New York tbo u>< saages Wi.ro always Irom
two to eight day a ahead ol me atorm arrivals ia Eug
laud or Krunce.
It would be eaay to fill these column* with proola
ol ibe uusounduess of the view* advaueod by thoao
Inclined lo crltielie the Hkrald W eat bar .Service unfa
vorably. The general render I* Indisposed to luveau
gaio subjects like thU Irom tbe laot that the laaues do
uot lniere*i htm immediately and ibe trouble would
be considerable. U h thu* tbal miauulemcuU olten
travel lastor ihau thoir coutradictioua, and error over
a w der arua tbau truth, Kvory gretl and u*elu> un
dertaking when oommuuoed mint necessarily disturb
something thai ia old, aet aud obstructive. there I*
more unit created by tbe tearing down ol no ancient
aud rutued chlmuey thau lit builulug a uew bouse.
Til Li MAU?mTA EXi'LOrilUN.
The adjourued inquiry into tne explosion on board
Hie Mnginia terry boat at Sing Slug w .a resumed
yusteruay beloio Ibe United dial** Steamboat lu
epeolor*. Juyua aud Maihewa.
Mr. John W. Uiaae, Untied States Aasislant Iusper
lor of Boilers, aaid that bo inspected tbo Magenta on
J una 6, 1M7T, at Newark, N. J.; be learned that she had
n*'W Itulugs in bar steam cbltnney; be looued tbe boiler
over thoroughly beiore putttug ou li e pressure, and
louud bar, to all appearauce, in perlcot order} he bad
examined the steumer'e chimney since the accident;
the rapid corroatun i* owing to soma peculiarity ol
ibe water thai he eou d not account for{ bad never
lu hi* exi erleoce known eocli rapia oxidation as
that; In caaee where boilera are leited be cut out a
piecv for the purpose ol Bounding at tbe ebunuey aud
auch piaoea aa ate liable to give oat; he did not <10 *0
lu tnie instance because knowing the boat; uor boll
ers being comparatively new, and having new llaiBgs,
he ?m aot tmak it neoasMry.
Joseph Belknap, consulting engineer, aaid that he
had been en^aped In the construction of steam
eugiuea and vesa- is iiuce 1*3*; ha had examined the
aie im chimney ol ibe Magenta since the esploaiou;
louod the outside casing 01 ills steam oinmo y very
mutib oorroded. With regard to iba Injurious effect
ol telling ou the ateam euriaces of boiler* where aall
or a mixture ol eali aad ireeh water ia used bo was ol
the opinion tbat the acilvo corrosion ol thia cuimuey
wascauseu by the aciiou of the fell.
The inqolrr waa adjourned until thia morning at
tleveft o'clock.
HEADY FOB 81iA
it ia expected tbal the United State* aloop-of-war
Wyoming will bo ready to aail Irom thia port to-mor
row for Havre, Prance. Tbe Wyomibg, 11 will bo re
membered, waa loaded with exhibit* tor the Harla Kx
ihimiIioii, aud aailed Irom the Uroowlyn Navy Yard
lures weeks aco. When she Was WW bine* irom New
York eh? sprung aleaa and hud to put back lor re
Xhe i?<iuir?d ropaira have been uutue.
METHODIST CONFERENCES.
CONDITION or TUB DIFJTBBBNT OHUBCBU
FINANCIALLY AND s pibit p ALLT^? p BOC B ED*
1NOS AT the SB-HONS.
Tit* New York Cou'ercneo of the Methodist Epis
copal Church rente moled yesterday morning la
LokV* Church aud opened the second dav'f
prooeedins* wits prayer by the Key. Dr. Mliejr.
B shop Andrew* presided, th* roll ra called and thfc
m.nut** of th* previous day's ****lon read ana
?<l> pted. Th*r* was a larger *tt*ndsuoe titan on lit*
Urst day.
Rev. C. Ourse, ol Slizavllle, Coluuibl* oounty, *nt*ro<l
a protest sgaioit th* action tuken In Ut* Psughkeopsl*
district on the 18tn ol February, wheo Mm* Lent wai
licensed *a a preacher. Her examination, he said,
bad been satisfactory, but b* thought tb?t allowing
woman to preach would b* ags net the rules ol tb?
Church. He hoped that the question ol lemuie
preachers would b* settled st thl* session. Laid over
for futur* consideration.
Rev. Charles ?. Brown, la th* abseooe of tb?
treasurer, read tite Unsocial report. It showed thai
I he Conference bad $1,600 ol real eitat*; securitiei
00 band, $31,740; total assets, $33,3401 Pi vision ol
lunds for the yoar*?To the churobos ol Prattivill*,
$1,090; lor superannuated lunj, $22,804; lor o?u
lenar.v luud, $6, 535; lor real estute, gl.tfiiO. Th* rest
01 the luud w'.m composed of small e^lato'. The hat
ol ireditors ol ttie Alorrissnis Cnurcti wai also road.
Hev. Dr. D. W. C. Van Go.-sbeck, pastor of the Mor
risania Cburco, mado an urgent appeal to tb* Con.
Inreuoe lo csiub i.-h the churcli a* a missionary
c(lurch and take up the mortgages upon it. I his was
tun only wuy bo saw ol geWni: iho church out of it*
present troubles. Referred to the trustees, with
power.
l be present trust*** o! tho New York Coui*r?nc<
were ihnu re-elected.
Hev. J I' H< rmunoc, presiding elder of the Nowburi
district, reporte i on the alfurs uuder his cburge and
said ti>ai ibo churcu at Highland was no lonver ablo to
carry It* deot.
lit'' '*pa**ing ol eburactars" oe*i took pisoe, tb*
presl nun elder ol etch district answering as to tti*
characters ol each ol tho pa tors in hi* district. Onlr
oneonar^* was brought up? mat again -it tho Hev. (?. C.
Hauiuer. a .euuou of saugertiex, wuo, be suld, had
acted us pastor ol u ro'ractory cougro^atiou and hei-n
suspended. His caso wa* referred to a commute* of
flee.
i he following important report wis itinu read aud
referred to the appropriate committee:?
At a meetiiu ol ihe pastors and official members ol
the Methodist Episcopal churches, hold Fobruary 22,
18J7. Bishop J. T. I'ook presidium, a ? oramiiteo con
Hat.on ul Revs. F. B<owu and C. E Harris, und Mr
J<>ii(i U. Cornell, were appointed to considar the que*
tleti?
"How c?u tho conueotional principle he so vitullset
n* to secure ellec.tual aid lor ibo weaker from tin
stronger churches T"
Tuis co'iiiuitlee reported in favor ol?First, metno.
riullziug the no\. General Conference to olot out to*
tiivltiou line beiwecu the Now York and New York
East cou lore uO* in this city, as thoy ?hall deem best,
i he report wu? ad pted, u^d su0?equ**tly Rsv. Vf.
W. Ciur*. moved tho appoinnu Mit ol a commute* to
drill a memorial on the subject of a cuniereoc*
boundary line in this city, as provided lor by toe Urst
proi>osniou ol t.ie report ol lite commute* on topic
No. 'j (c mut'Ctiouai unity), which inollou w is adopted
m.u the io11owin^ comnaitieo .ippoimed:?K r. W.
V. Cl.trivu. Kev. M, L. fcuduor, Rev. Charles Fi*tcbur
una Messrs. Usorg* i>. H.iiu.iiou, .u l S. f. Ouuly.
TDK AfrKK.XOOX SKSHIO.V
The afternoon wis uevoted to eelenruMng the annl
vcrasry ol the Ministers' Mutual Aid Society. tin
WHJicty mot In iit, Luke'k at lbred o'elocn. I'restUeul
J. 1' Heriuance tit iho chair. Tno ire .surer'.- report
snowed me total receipts, including casn ou hand, to
b? #7,211! 06 Outlay lor the year, prtnoipaiiy loan*
ou bouu aud mortgage, $ti,10(i, I'Miriug * casu omanca
oi J1.053 tiS. Iho total Issetb oi tne society were
$17, J33 ti5.
. A now constitution was read aud unanimously
adopted.
Dr. A. II. (J.,bon next ?poke ou the finances ol tbt
society, tie thought. $17,O iO was a very ~ Will umount
lor the sooiety to bavo ?tav*d lu Ulty years lor too re
Jiel ol tho relativ e ol deoeaseu members.
The annual election ol the society wis then held,
with the following result:?frosiuent, Alexander For
guaon; Urst v.uj preaniout, J. N. ocunllei; ??ioud
vice i.resiJeut, W. C. tiiunh; ilnrd vioe prusiaeni, L.
C. (Viultburn; secretary, it. Wheatley; treasurer, W.
H. Urowor. All tho managers were r* aiecteu.
TH* Kt'kNISO SKHSIOX.
At eiithl o'clock .-ervicos wore liuld lu the Free Tab.
ernucle Churoh, Kighib avenue and 1 nirtv-louris
street. Rev. Dr. J. M. King, pastor *1 the Washing.
I' quure Methodist Episcopal cUurch. pr*uoue.t tue
ou?rj- surmou. He spoke of the great woric thai
win. aono lu tne missiojs and ihe duty of mil to
further toe cause lo tb* o*st ol' th*ir ability.
NEW lOUK JSAbT CONIBUJCNCtt.
At ibe opeuing ot the Nuw York East Conference
yoaterdav a telegram was rcceivod Irorn Banbury,
Conn., announcing Ibe dealb ol Or. E. E. Uriswotd. a
superannuated preaober, wbo bu servad tba Cburca
lor furiy-ulne year* in tbat oapacl:/. A suitable
minute was ordered on tba minutes of tba Coulcr
auca.
Tba presiding elders then gave a sketch ot tba
financial aud spiritual oooauun ol tbe cburebos la
tboir districts. Mr. Hanson catechised Elder Peck in
regard to heresy preachers la bis district. Some of
tbeiu had oeeu reported as unbound on tbe dootrioa
ol luture punishment. Dr. Pock could not answer,
and tlie Bishop suggested tbat li Brother Henson or
any otuer member ol tbe Conference knuw of socli
unsoundness tbey should preier charges and hare tba
cases properly adjudicated,
El'ler Gn.r?s reported a reduction of debt* on sev
eral churches In lits district. Notably Simpson
Churcu, winch b is llfed a floating debt ol $13,000;
P.iciilo street Cburcb, $0,000; Warren street, $2,000;
lie Kalb avciiuu, $1,000; sheep's Hoad Bay, $60d or
i $1,.*oo, during Rev. Mr. Nelsou's pastorate; and
llauson Piice Cuurcii. Cburcbe* bar--been ouilt aud
paid lor at Furty-iourtb street, Brooklyn, at Free
1 port and Hop?d<ile L. L Revivals of religion tiava
! progressed in several charges, nouolv la Washington.
| street, Fleet street, H&usou p>a<e and Simpson
I churches ol Brooklyn, and at Froeport, Bay Shore
ami nog Harbor, L 1. At tba latter place over ooa
hundred wura added.
1'Uouameol William Lawrcnce baring bean called
Elder Gravos nhuouitced that he had wilbilravrn aud
united *itn ti'O Hsptist Church aud returned ma
parcliiui'ui-*. K ?. James L. Hall's name was oallua
l aud an jpoiogy lor bis contumacy was ma te, coupled
I uitli a request that be ha restored lo his iorm-*r
; stiudlUK iu tbe Coulereuce. U will be rumembureJ
t.iat Mr. Hall refused lo go to hi* appointment a year
a^v; that ue toon eti.'irge ol a i'resby terlau Cburcn in
Brooklyn and applied lor admission lo tba Prasoy
ti ry ol mat city ; that lie n, r-lused adiuisaiou on ac
count of bis suspension lor comumacy tiy ibe Metlio
uisi autnoritiea bu converted ins parieulouers to Con
gregationalism. Us now a<-ks restoration to lavor
with bis breibrau aud a supernumerary relttiou lor
the er.suitig year. I bora was considerable discussion
on ibis case, and a motion was made that a oommiitca
oi seven l?e appoluted to lUVesligale and report ail tha
ficta. I'Uis increased tbe cou. usiou aud deb >te, aud
the ease was postponed. The temper ol tba Conler
aaca waa in lavor ol Mr. Hall's restoration.
at roars axo a.nmviihs4ki?s.
Tba report el tbe coudiiiou of tbe iiook Conoarn
wa? made, and Br. Nelson, tna agent, a-ldressed tba
Coulereuee. 'I be nat Droll te for ?be year 1877 were
$*4,000, Tba support ol tha bishops, which for
merly was uoruc by iba Conoarn, is uo# borne by tua
t iiurtii at lar^e, and tna collections ior ttiai luji'i tine
i Conieranoe yaar are nearly aulhcivnt to pay all claims.
> Toe Bianop .tunouuoad two committees called lor on
Wednesday lo silt c.indid.itea lor adiiilsSlou Ou trial
aud Into luu connection, but at tba same time de
clared tbat there is hardly any chance thai a aaudt
Uaie Wilt be received ou trial at Una session, aod ibal
many marriod men will bo oiili.eJ lo Uke tbe places
ol young men In $300 or $400 appointment*.
in tbe aliernooa me anuiveraary ol tna Fraedtaan's
Aid Society was held, nud utidruaae. wero delivered
by tbe Kev. H. Bust, U D., aud Kov. (J. L. Wost
g.te. lueSunday scuool Uuion also ueld lis anni
versary ta the evuniug, and Kev. C. H. Muck and Ur.
J. H. Vinoeut delivered uddrenea,
CU1LDUEVS Fiilt-NDS.
The regular monthly mauling ol tho Board of Oireo
tors of the New York Hoeiaty for tbe Prevention ol
Cruelty to Children was beld yesterday al'.aruoon,
Mr. Ibomaa O. Acton in the cnair. There were also
present President Jobn U. Wright, Hoberi L. aiu^rt,
Frederick Ue Peyaier, James 6tokei>, William L Jen
kins, BanJ?mlo H. Fields, Jacob W. Macs, Charles
Haunt, Nathan U Kly, A C. Kingnlund, Jr., Mlnclalr
Tousey, Harmon Hcndrlckt and oilier*. Tba eecro
lary reported tbe work ol the sooiety for tho mootb
ol Marcn as loilows;? Comptaiou reoeived, UO, ussus
laveeligaied, 1I&; cases proaecuiud, 4J; ossus cou*
vicied, 40; children placed iu homes sod insttlUlloDs
or restored to parents aud guardians, Otl.
A large number ol the aoove were esses in vhloii
young children were rescued iroin vile aud degradud
surroundings, where tbey were ueing educated us uro
lensional beggars or thieves. Tho subject ol employ
ing children lor any purpose in variety theatres aud
muslo balls wbere lutoxicating drinks are sold was
also belore the Board, and the eaperiniendrnt was in
structed te report at toe aaxt meeting the number
aud character al such places and tba capacity la
wblcb obildren ara engagod.
MISPLACED CONFIDENCE.
George Harmon, of No *1 Ibompeoa street, had n
numtier of coins and tome other money in a room,
winch ba left aa inmate al tbe nousc, James M. Hohuy.
I it by name, In obarge of. While be absented himself
from tba house tbe cnetodiaa ol ibe room admitted
Llinrles W. l.awrenoe, wbo carried away $130 H7. I be
two accomplice* iu Ibe Uiuit weru arrested mid
lirougnl to lbs Jelferson Market 1'olice Court, whtre
Schuyler's admission ol gultt caused the couidiiital vt
bum ut dalaiut oi #l,?w imi