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TOWNSEND PLAN DISPUTE DOMINATES WEEK’S BOOKS'
PENSION IDEA IS DISSECTED /_■ i Elizabeth Bowen Does Fascinating Novel on Pattern of Life and Love of Some Distinguished Characters—China's Change Analyzed—A New Max Miller Volume. By Mary-Carter Roberts. AGE BEFORE BOOTY: AN EX PLANATION OF THE TOWN SEND PLAN. By Morgan J. Dor man. With a Foreword by Dr. Francis E. Townsend. New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons. THE TOWNSEND PLAN: TAXING FOR SIXTY. By Nicholas Roose velt. With an Introduction by Lewis W. Douglas. Garden City: Doubleday, Doran & Co. THE first of these books contains the pros of the famous Town send plan, stated with approval of the plan’s originator. The second contains the cons, with an ominous warning contributed by a former director of the budget. After going through the pair of them the reader can just take his choice. Qr, If he prefer, he can sit back and revel In that emotional release which is attendant upon beholding any really first-rate row. Perhaps, on the whole, the dilettante attitude will prove the more profitable. For, surely, the embattled econ omists have not spared one another. In the course of the two books the lie is passed about as frequently as any claim is made by either side. There seems to be just one thing that the two schools agree upon, and that is that Dr. Townsend himself is a good and honest man. Apart from this, the fur flies freely. The interested reader will probably find that the most pertinent poirn, oi disagreement is in the predictions ad vanced by the two claimants as to the effect on business of the "transac tions tax," which is, of course, the 2 per cent tax on all business transac tions, of whatever nature, by w'hich the Townsendites plan to raise the money needed for their proposed pensions to the aged. Mr. Roosevelt, taking the case of the harmless necessary shirt, and tracing the evolution of that garment from the state of being cotton seed up until it covers the human form, declares that in all 17 "transactions" will be involved, with, of course, 17 tax levies, every one of which will be passed on to the consumer, who thus will bear the entire burden. More over, says Mr. Roosevelt, each tax will be added to the previous cost-plus tax, so that they will mount in the im pressive manner of compound, rather than of simple interest. Beware, says Mr. Roosevelt. Mr. Dorman, on the other hand, Ignoring the shirt, takes that more universally symbolic article, the loaf of bread. Between the times when it is farmer's wheat and when it is of fered for sale at the retail baker's, five "transactions” take place, he says. At present, he further says, between those times the cost of the commodity in creases 500 per cent, which is to say that the wheat for which the farmer receives il represents $5 in loaves. “Is there not room in that wide spread to take care of 10 cents in taxes?” he in quires plaintively. Of the compound interest aspect, he makes no mention. Neither does he believe, as Mr. Roosevelt does, that the burden w'ill be shunted along to the consumer, but implies that each of the parties to the five transactions will bear his own 2 per cent. This difference of interpretation would seem to be basic, to the ordinary citizen, at least. However, it is by no means the only one which the two books bring out. Unfortunately, neither one presents a complete au thenticated body of information. Both quote, to be sure, impressive facts taken from reports of unimpeachable bodies. But what, after all, is a stray fact, more or less? The dispassionate reader win leel that Dotn writers are honestly, too honestly perhaps, intent on making a case. They do protest too much. Summed up, Mr. Dorman’s claims are that the Townsend plan will pre vent all future depressions, keep in dustry working at a peak that will provide employment for every one, eliminate private charity or the need for it and widen the opportunities open to the young. Similarly summed up, Mr. Roose velt’s views are that the Townsend plan will induce an immediate de pression of tremendous and fatal pro portions, that it will cut down the buying power of consumers by enormously raising prices, that it will consequently kill industry, increase unemployment and demoralize the populace. You can take your choice. Neither book, be it said, is large or expensive. Both are recommended, quite „ im partially. THE HOUSE IN PARIS. By Elizabeth Bowen. Alfred H. Knopf, New York. T3ACK in January, there came to the desks of the Nation's book re viewers a small, compact novel which, one glance at the name of the author foretold, was destined to be a delightful professional experience. “Ah,” they said, their austerity van ishing like illusions in one’s 20s, “Elizabeth Bowen has written another book.” A few days later came a notice from the publisher saying that publication date had been deferred. March 2, they said it was to be. "Ah,” said the reviewers, “Miss Bowen’s novel has been snapped up by the book-of-the-month people.” The reviewers were right. Those who deputize their book selection to professionals, in the art (or is it a science?) will find the postman mak ing one of his most alluring deliveries this month. "The House in Paris” was a natural for the book-of-the-month judges; one of those choices that could not have been wrong. Miss Bowen’s book is different. As Katherine Mansfield’s books were different. Ireland's most recent and brightest contribution to the literary craft proves that action is entirely dis pensable in a novel without loss of power to compel attention. She dips her pen into the mysticism of her racial heritage and writes character and atmosphere, and nothing this reviewer has read in recent years manages so well to be what is called “gripping.” What is the book about? It starts with an exquisitely written scene of a meeting between a beautiful, sensi tive, fiercely proud little boy of 9 and a pleasant, poised little girl—a nice little girl, but by no means so enchanting as the boy—in a house in Paris. The little boy is waiting with a heart-rending intensity for the com ing of the mother he has never seen. I Miss Bowen makes It clear that the child is a tragic symbol of one of those love affairs that had to be, even though it followed a path which de toured around the altar. Distinguished characters were they who participated in the tragedy and distinguished is their offspring. Miss Bowen demon strates that in a few brief, crisp, brilliant sentences. The morning ends and Miss Bowen takes one back over the story of the poignant love affair which led up to it. Love, as she sees it and writes It, is a thing of many facets. In the case of one character it is a force that impels to an end of abject sacri fice, of another, quite the reverse. In still others, it offers nuances that makes one extremely glad for the eyes of Elizabeth Bowen with which to see them. You will like the story of little Leopold and the pattern of life of which he is the focal point. You will or we won't like you. F. J. C. WE EUROPEANS. By Julian S. Hux ley and A. C. Haddon. With a contribution by A. M. Carr-Saun ders. New York: Harper & Bros. rPHIS book is devoted to the propo A sition that, on the basis of any, scientific classification, the existence of race cannot be proven. The emi nent authors take up in turn the various methods of race determina tion, hair form and hair color, skin color, eye color and eye form, stature, head form, nasal form, physiological and psychological characters and blood groups. And in every case they conclude that sufficient scientific evi dence of definite grouping is absent. What we generally accept as “racial’' characteristics or ties they rate as cul iuiai aiiu ouuw, invini uiau vvtiuv logical. The authors admit “ethnic groups’* as a loose classification, but repre sent nationalism today as the defini tive standard. That, they point out, rests on external, rather than bio logical factors. And the error to which they devote their most pointed com ment is the fact that nations are cur rently attempting to use the pretense of “race” purity, or “race” superiority for purely nationalistic ends. Such claims, say the writers, are scientific ally baseless and, in an age which dei fies science, are particularly offensive to the realistic mind. The book is particularly concerned with Europe, where the aforesaid con dition exists most conspicuously. It contains a survey of the “ethnic groups" and maps their national dis tribution. The result is, as any think ing person would foresee, practically polyglot. It is simply devastating to any claim that a particular nation comprises pure racial stock of any variety, or that any “return” to for mer racial purity could be possible. While these statements are not In themselves surprising, the book does contain much specific information that the average reader probably will not have known. It is interestingly done and would seem to be pertinent at the present time. CHINA CHANGES. By G. J. Yorke. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons. 'T'HE author of this book was sent out to China as Reuter’s corre spondent and served there in that capacity for two years. In that time he had a variety of lively experiences; he went with the Chinese forces into Jehol when the Japanese were advanc ing, he accompanied the anti-Com munist forces in Klangsi, he witnessed in Fukien the rebellion of the famous 19th Route Army and saw the rise and fall of the short-lived “People's Revo lutionary Government of China.’’ He also accompanied a commission sent out by the Chinese government to inspect the flood-control system of the Yangste and Huai River Valleys. Finally, when he got a little time to himself, he settled in a monastic hermitage to write a book. And the book, of course, is the present work. It contains much interesting mi terlal. In its assembling there is no particular coherence, but, one gathers, Mr. Yorke was not aiming at much more than setting down his impres sions and memories. With never-to-be sufflciently-commended modesty, he remarks of his effort, . . honesty compels me to admit that I am not yet fully qualified to write seriously about the country, for I have Deen resident for only some two years. ... I have dreamed of this country since childhood, and have read all the translations on which I could lay my hands. But interest in a subject can not make up for the knowledge that only time and study can bring.” He has done a book, however, which does show, without any partisan political passion, a nation in flux, and he has offered some reasonable seem ing interpretations of the forces back of the change. His style at no time rises above the level ef acceptable journalism, which is unfortunate, for one feels that his vision has been be yond that. However, to the average reader, this circumstance will prob ably be of advantage. The book is certainly an honest and worthy study. THE NEW BOOK OP ENGLISH VERSE. Edited by Charles Wil liams. New York: The Macmillan Co. 'T'HE editor of this new anthology of English verse states in his intro duction, ‘‘The two rules laid down by the publisher for this work were (1) that it should contain nothing that was in the ‘‘Oxford Book of English Verse” or the ‘‘Golden Treasury," (2) that every' poem included should be of poetic importance.” * He adds that, except for one stanza from Chaucer, the first rule has, he believes, been kept, although the many editions of the “Treasury” make it difficult to be sure. It is when one comes to the second rule, of course, that the fun really begins. No two persons could possibly agree on that. Happily there are still some things which cannot be decided bg statistical measurements, and poetic Importance remains one of them. On the whole, however, the collection which Mr. Williams has assembled, beginning with its earliest dates In the fourteenth century add ending among the Victorians, seems one to own. In its newness, one will not, of course, place it quite so high as the “Oxford Book” or the “Treasury,” but still one should have it. It contains poems, the omission of which from these two .great collections, has always been puzzling, as, for example, the “Christ r, abel" of Coleridge, and much of Donne. Some amusement may be aroused by the editor’s extremely careful discus sion of his own canons of selection, when, as for example, he discusses whether a poeiri celebrating a person of an "undesirable social order" should be included or not. Happily this fus siness has not seemed to Intrude in his j work and perhaps the publishers will | omit the introduction in future edi- | tions. For the present the book is a , good addition to that dubious literary group—the anthologies. FOG AND MEN ON BEHRING SEA. By Max Miller. New York: E. P. Dutton Sc Co. ]V/fAX MILLER, who covered the water front so famously, in this present work writes of a trip on the Northland, the Government boat that patrols the edge of the Artie lCepack and the forbidding coasts of Alaska and its islands. He is humorous and grim; his book has a distinctly indi vidual flavor among the great welter of travel tales of the lovely-lovely va riety. He goes neither mystic nor chatty, as so many of our glove-trot ting scriveners do. but tells a concen trated and pungent tale of what he observed. Much of that was unpleas ant; he does not gloss it over. Still he contrives less unpleasant reading than do the manv who are so deter minedly radiant In reporting their ■ journeys. With so obviously a flair for travel writing, he moves one to hope, albeit cautiously, that he will not stay home too much in the future, j And that is a very large concession. MEN IN SUN HELMETS. By Vic Hurley. New York: E. P. Dutton & Co. 'T'HIS is a collection of brief narra. tives from the lives of white men living in the Philippines. The author has already written one book about : that corner of the world—“Southeast of Zamboanga," He has spent a num ber of years down there, and his pres ent volume would seem to be chiefly random stories taken from memories of his wandering existence. Some of them are pretty good. They deal variously with white men and women and natives. The impres sion which the whole collection gives is of a life that more often is des perate than glamorous, that more often destroys than allows to flourish. One can by no means commend the work to the bankerer after romantic tropical nirvanas. It deals pretty ex clusively with what is known as the seamy side, and, in the Philippines, that seems to be a shade worse even than it is at home. One wonders if a debunking move ment for travel books is under way. By some standards it is due, though certain dreamers will no doubt regret the change. Anyway, the present book is no cruise literature. TREASURE EXPRESS. By Neill C. Wilson. New York: The McMillan Co. 'T'HIS is a series of narratives, told 1 in good swinging style, about the hold-ups or the attempts at hold-ups of the stages which carried the treas ure out of the gold fields of our West, in the glamorous days of the 50s. Robberies, pursuits, captures, escapes and lynchings fill the hearty pages. It is a slice of typical Americana, to use a phrase beloved by critics, and it is carefully authenticated, too. One can commend it without reservation. MORE STUDIES IN MURDER. By Edmund Pearson. New York: Har rison Smith and Robert Haas. 'T'HERE is no one. perhaps, who writes of the human animal gone ^rong more engagingly than Edmund Pearson. He has the faculty for re lating gruesome crimes without being either too appalling or too clinical. In his most recent volume he rebates the stories of some dozen or so crim inals (it makes an uncountable num ber of crimes) with such propriety that you might give the book to your most sensitive friend without causing offense. And yet he does not slight horrid details, either. Clearly, he is unique in this kind of writing. His wretches here range from such heights of infancy as those achieved by J. P. Watson, who could not re member how many women he had murdered for their money, to little known, obscure characters, who killed from sheer stupidity. In addition to crimes for which malefactors have been brought to justice, he cites the facts of certain unsolved mysteries— notably the Elwell case and the Lizzie Borden legend—and the spectacular career of Jack the Ripper. In these latter instances he tells the facts that actually were discovered and bal ances them against the accumulation of popular myths. It all makes re markably good reading. Then, as a sort of comic epilogue, he gives the stories of a number of trials of a less serious nature. Among these is the case that distracted the clerical world of England—the grave scandal of the archdeacon's pajamas and the shocking career of the abom inable Yelverton, who married neither well nor wisely. On the whole, it would seem that Mr. Pearson's method of handling the records of crime is the most healthful one possible. He neither glorifies the criminal nor horrifies the reader, but contrives to make the whole subject contemptible, chiefly by showing its ineptness. As has been said, he is unique in tills somewhat difficult field. MURDER FOR WHAT? By Kurt Steel. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Mer rill Co. COME months ago the author of ^ this second novel produced his first, called ‘ Murder of a Dead Man." The publishers for some Inexplicable reason annouinced at the time that he was the holder of a Phi Beta Kap pa Key. me present reviewer re marked that, even so, he knew how to handle the popular Manhattan argot. The present book bears fur ther shining evidence that this is so and, while the first one was pretty good, viewed Just as a mystery, this one, viewed Just as a mystery, calls for downright enthusiasm. Mr. Steel does not go in for purple hangings and oriental idols as scen ery for his detective, neither does he conceive of crime as something to be done in fancy dress. He gives us a perfectly routine little homicide, a State policeman in up-State New York, found shot to death in the woods. The sleuth is the Hyer of his first novel—a matter-of-fact per son hailing from Iowa. Hyer makes use neither of the sixth sense nor hasheesh in tracking the miscreants to cover. He does seem to one a trifle indefatigable as a wlse-cracker, some times, but that is his worst fault. He solves his mystery by such means as appeal to one's common sense. He is a distinct relief among the current run of fiction man hunters. It is to be hoped that Mr. Steel does not wear his creditable creation thin in forthcoming books, but he probably will. In the meantime, "Murder for What?” is a superior detective story. By Thomas R. Henry. TODAY is the end of Winter^— the official Winter of Govern ment weather forecasters, re gardless of the calendar. All over the United States it has been about as hard a Winter as the old folks can remember. Epeciany in i Washington, it seems to the average citizen, the season has been especially j severe. There has been nothing like I it since 1918, and even then the cold was not so consistent, nor the snow so enduring. Now, a bad Winter is a rather im portant matter for most of us. It has a more immediate, profound effect on our lives than most man-made affairs can possibly have. Taxes may go sky high. but they hardly can advance for the average citizen more than the price of a couple of extra tons of coal, a lot of extra doctor bills and the other additional expenses that come with prolonged cold weather. The money item is important enough, not to men tion the discomfort, the inconven ience, the menace to life and health, or the absolute physical suffering. j Naturally, nearly every one wants to know the reason why one Winter should be almost April-like from De cember to March with, at the most, only a few light snow flurries, while another remains almost consistently KaIotct frAAviner urifh ofrAAtc walks to be shoveled day after day, I and the coal pile vanishing faster than a snowdrift under a hot sun. There isn’t any very satisfactory I answer. For such as there is. one goes to J. B. Kincer, chief of the division of climatology of the Weather Bureau. His job is to keep track of those seasonal and annual trends of weather which constitute climate. Beyond much doubt, says Mr. Kincer, | climate runs in cycles. There will be a period of steadily increasing tem peratures for a number of years, fol lowed by a period of steadily decreas. ing temperatures until the point is reached from which they first started to rise, after which they will go up again. There are all sorts of such cycles. We are very familiar with one of them—the year. The four seasons re peat themselves every 12 months. We safely can predict today that there will. be some uncomfortably warm weather next July and some uncom fortably cold weather next January. Only about once in a century would our predictions go wrong—at the worst. 'T'HIS annual progress of the sea sons is unique among weather cycles. We knowr the cause of it— From "Treasure Express ” by Neill C. Wilson. Macmillan. Brief Reviews of New Books on Varied Themes Non-Fiction. AMERICAN DIPLOMATIC AND CONSULAR PRACTICE. By Graham H. Stuart. New York: D. Appleton Century Co. A com plete survey of the history, organi zation and working of the ma chinery that conducts United States foreign relations, by a pro fessor of politics, Stanford Uni versity. PARTNERS IN PROGRESS. By Esse V. Hathaway. New York: Mcgraw Hill Book Co. The lives and achievements of pioneers of science and Invention done in the familiar manner. THE STRANGER IN AMERICA. By Charles William Janson. With introduction and notes by Dr. Carl S. Driver. New York: The Press of the Pioneers, Inc. The experi ences of an Englishman in the United States back in 1793, first printed in 1807, proving chiefly that the visiting'Britisher has not changed much since those days. Some interesting passages. JOYS OP THE TRAIL. By Hamlin Garland. Chicago: The Book fellows. Nostalgic essays on the passing beauties of the wilderness by a veteran American writer who ought to know. A very pleasant little book. WHY BRING THAT UP? A Guide to and Prom Seasickness. By Dr. J. X. Montague. New York: Home Health Library. Amusing but useful information along the lines the title indicates, written by an eminent physician. THE TRIUMPH OP THE PASSIVE VIRTUES AS ILLUSTRATED IN THE ODESSEY OP HOMER. By Rev. Charles X. Oooildge. Boston: K I The Stratford Co. Religious In terpretation of the Greek classic. Superficial. THE JEWISH PROBLEM. By Julius Hahn and Henry Mueller. Boston: Meador Publishing Co. Advocacy of Christianization of Hebrews, written by an American and a German in collaboration. Foolish. WAKE UP AND LIVE! By Dorothea Brande. New York: Simon <Ss • Schuster. Pep psychology about how to become a terrific success by following .a set of rules. Sur prising from an ordinarily en lightened publishing house. A NEW STANDARD BIBLE DIC TIONARY. By M. W. Jacobus, E. C. Lane and A. C. Zenos. New York: Funk & Wagnalls Co. The third revised edition of this work. Fiction. CLOSE OF PLAY. By N. Warner v Hooke, New York: E. P, Dutton * Oo. Smfles-nnd-teers romance 0 of English boy and girl. A nice book—but what of it? CITY FOR CONQUEST. By Aben Kandel. New York: Covicl Friede. A novel that is a demonstration, rather than a study of New York’s particular brand of vulgarity. One (mines, unkindly, that a good bit of the demonstration is uncon scious cm the author’s part. NARNA DARRELL. By Beverly R. Tucker. Boston: The Stratford Co. Story of lovers’ reincarnations through the ages. FIVE LITTLE HEIRESSES. By Alice Duer Miller. New York: Dodd Mead Is Co. Lovely "society” girl • playing chaperone to earn her living. Perfectly routine Miller novel. MONSIONOR. By poran Hurley. New York: Longmans Green it Co. Story of ambitious .priest rather .naively told DOCTOR OF THE NORTH COUN 1 TRY. By E^l Vinton McComb. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell Co. Realistic picture of a country doc tor’s life by an author who is a doctor himself. AUGUSTUS. By Gunther Birkenfeld. Translated from German by Wini fred Ray. New York: Liveright Publishing Corp. Novel on the life of the first Roman Emperor, well and convincingly done. MONTANA BOUND. By Stuart Hardy. New York: Green Circle Books. Western stuff and then more West ern stuff. HOMICIDE HAVEN. By J. V. Turner. New York: D. Appleton-Century. Mystery of corpse on the floor, solved by Scotland Yard with amateur assistance. THE JAIL GATES ARE OPEN. By David Hume. New York: D. Apple ton-Century Co. Detectives Cardy and Son help Scotland Yard solve the mystery of the counterfeiters. DEAD END STREET. By Lee Thayer. New York: Dodd Mead Sc Co. Peter Clancy solves the killing of Patrolman.Duffy and gets into no end of adventures the while. THE CRIMSON PATCH. By Phoebe Atwood .Taylor, New York: W. W. Norton & Co. Murder down East, with the amiable wise-cracking detective, Asey Mayo, doing the solving. THE A. B. C. MURDERS. By Agatha Christie. New York: Dodd Mead Sc Co. Murder in a series, solved by Poirot, Miss Christie’s very... ver . . French sleuth. Poetry. THE TITANIC. By E. J. Pratt: To ronto: The Macmillan Co. of Cshada. Fine narrative poem com memorating the great sea disaster of 1813. f, Illustration by Richard Bennett from "Skookum and Sandy* Doubleday, Doran & Co., a 'new book for young people. TIME BRINGS A HARD WINTER And It May Bring Others in a Cold Cycle Possibly Develop ing Now—Weather Experts Cover Long Period Seeking Reason for Cyclic Effects That Make Our Climate. the changing position of the earth i with respect to the sun. We know, i within a relatively few days, how : long it will last. I It is much more difficult to get any : adequate picture of any of the others. 1 Nobody ever has succeeded in doing so, as yet. There are Winters and Sum mers of the ages and of the centuries. For about 500,000,000 years there has been life on earth. During this un imaginably long span of time there have been millions of years when I Greenland was covered with a temper ate zone forest and other millions of years when the District of Columbia was on the edge of a great ice sheet. Cold period always has succeeded warm period, and vice versa. Nobody knows the reason why. There has been, apparently, no regularity in the swings. Some ice ages have been long and some short. The swinging of climate is not like the swing of a pendulum—so far as climatologists have been able to determine. It is entirely possible, even probable, that superimposed upon these climatic cycles which can be expressed in geo logical time scales only, there have been shorter cycles whose phases have endured only for a few centuries. Very likely Europe was consistently colder than it is today during the so called Dark Ages and began to get warm about the time of the Renais sance. But superimposed upon these cycles of centuries—standing between them and the cycle of the year—are much more definite cycles of which Mr. Kincer has made an intensive study. They run for about 50 years from peak to peak. For a time the temperature of the earth—taken as a whole—will rise consistently from year to year. Then, after it reaches a certain high point, it will fall consistently. The phases of such cycles run anywhere from 10 to 40 years. This fact renders them of small value for long range forecasting. Now for the past 20 years the earth | —and more specifically the North! American continent—has been in one of these climatological upswings. By and large, taking the continent as a whole and disregarding local vagaries of weather, it has been getting warmer and warmer. There has been a rather consistent piling up of an excess of heat. There has been plenty of cold weather, but the general trend has been unmistakable. It has had some rather picturesque and tragic conse quences—such as the great droughts of 1930 and 1934 and the great dust storms which brought such tragedy to the Western plains. ___ _ >_1!_i.:_4V.;*P ■ noivci AO CVCAJ iiiuivav»v« ‘****» -- •*■ upswing of the cycle has reached its ' highest point and that this Winter; marks the beginning of the downward swing. How long it will continue no body knows. There is no great reason to be alarmed. This does not mean that next Winter will be colder than this Winter, the next Winter colder still, and so on. It only means, pro viding the rather vague indications are correct, that during the next 10 or more years there will be appreciably more cold weather than during the last decade. It is likely that some of the Winters will be quite cold. There will be necessarily a piling up of cold somewhere, provided the cycle runs true to form. Tested on the basis of daily, weekly or monthly temperatures at any par ticular spot in the United States, this cycle probably would not be at all ap parent. It would be masked by the relatively much greater effect of local and seasonal variations. Mr. Kincer extracts the main trend from these by a rather complex statistical method— the computation of the ‘‘floating mean.’’ This is a bit tricky to the amatuer. It is apt to be set down,; at first glance, as a mathematical stunt. Actually it is a scientific ; method of getting at an underlying j reality. The undulations of the curve of this floating mean probably mean as much to humanity at large as any minor war. They may, if the speculations j of some philosophers arc accepted, mean a great deal more. But before anybody can have an adequate con cept of the cycle it is essential to understand how Mr. Kincer goes about the Job of calculation. The normal temperature for Wash ington is exactly 55 degrees above zero Fahrenheit. This is established as follows: Every day the hourly thermometer readings are added and divided by 24. The result is the mean temperature for that day. Then the mean tem peratures of each day of the year are added and the sum divided by 365. Then the mean temperature of 50 years are added and the sum divided by 50. The thermometer would read 55 all j ih> if there were no temperature i variations, such as come with the four seasons and with night and day. So. In computing the floating mean, the first step is to represent 55 degrees as a straight line. Actually, of course, the mercury sel dom reads exactly 55. There is hardly such a thing as a “normal day.” On many days in the Summer it remains pretty consistently around 80. On many days in the Winter it sinks almost to zero. If the average for a day is 80, the meteorologists subtract 55 and get plus 25—the number of degrees above normal. If the average is zero they set down a —55, which s the number of degrees below normal. Then all the minuses and all the >luses are added together and the smaller subtracted from the greater If the result is a plus figure for the year, that year has been warmer than normal, ir it is a minus figure the year has been colder than normal. Over a span of 50 years the two should be theoretically exactly equal. [VOW for the “floating mean.” Take, for example, the 10 years from 1900 to 1910. The variations from normal are added and divide by 10. Let us say the mean for these 10 years Is live egrees above normal. On Mr. Kincer’s chart it is marke five points above the straight Hne, which repre sents 55 degrees, the 50-year average. Then comes 1911 with a mean tem perature of $ degrees above normal. Mr. Klncer calculates another 10-year average, starting this time not with 1900, but with 1901. This average is the second point on his curve. It prob ably will not be 5 plus 7 divided by 2, or iYi. because the mean for 1900 has, been dropped out altogether; Then: comes 1912, with a temperature ex-' ictly normal. Again the 10-year iverage is calculated, this time start - ng with 1902. Thus is obtained the hird point on his chart. And so on, or as long as one cares to carry out he calculations. Then the points above or below nor nal are Joined by a line. It this line ■emains for any number of years above he straight line which represents the >0-year normal, it indicates that there s a consistent excess of temperature, [f it remains below, it indicates a :onsistent deficit of temperature. And if the line consistently goes up or 3own, it indicates an Increasing or iecreasing temperature. By using this method the effects of a single exces sively hot or excessively cold 12 months do not hide the general trend. During the warm period, now believed to have passed, there was some of the coldest weather of the century, and very likely, if we now ai t entering a cold period, there will be days, months ind years as hot as anything we have known in the past. Somewhat paradoxically, that is a characteristic of warm and cold swings. The coldest weather is likely to come in theWarm periods and the hottest weather in the cold periods. Such extreme variatioas. however have very little effect on the floating mean. During a hot upswing there will be more hot weather and during a cold swing more cold weather. One cannot predict with anv certainty that the Winter of 1937 will be cold, but if the present indications are sustained the prediction of a cold Winter should be a much better guess than the pre fiction of a very mild Winter. The percentages would be all in favor of the pessimist, but in weather, as in aorse racing, percentage sometimes ?oes haywire. The same calculation of the floating mean can be applied to any point in the United States for which there are adequate observations. The “normal line’’ for the continent, or for the world, can be established by taking all of them into account. Apparently the factor responsible for the cycle is world-wide in its effect. Just about everything in weather has a world "*“v avivtwtiawuil. J-JERE, then, is the first step in the explanation of the present cold Winter. There must be a succession of cold Winters to verify it. If there is such a succession, it will be fairly safe to assume that we are on the downswing of the cycle. We are en tering one of the Winters of the century. Grandpa no longer will be able to boast of the high snowdrifts when he was a boy out in Wisconsin. Now for some of Mr. Kincer’s spe cific evidence for these undulating cycles. Back in 1778 Rev. Ezra Styles, president of Yale University, began noting dally temperatures at New Haven in his diary. He continued the self-appointed task faithfully for about i year, when British troops invaded -he little college town and, among' other mean acts, smashed his ther ■nometer. This was a serious loss in :hose days. Dr. Styles couldn’t get another immediately, but when he could he went on just as before. His successors continued the task until, more than a century later, a Weather Bureau station was established at New Haven. So, for this New England city, there is a continuous daily temperature record for 135 years. It is the longest record in North America. Here is what the New Haven record shows: Starting with 1801 the tem perature—especially the Winter tem perature—piled up a cumulative excess for 12 years. Then there was a down swing for 37 years, from 1813 to 1849; for the next 15 years the climate was getting progressively warmer again; in 1864 there was another reversal and it got colder for nine years; then it rose steadily for 19 years; then it. fell steadily for 20 years; then, in 1913, it started rising again, and has been going up ever since, until this year. There may be even a-more pro found cycle shown in the figures, for the peaks and depressions of the curves were not always at the same heights. There is an outstanding re cession in the curve from a maximum, in 1812 to a minimum in 1873, a period of about 60 years; then a pro nounced rise up to the present. Temperature records for Washing ton begin with the year 1817. From that period on they can be compared, (Continued on Third Page.) ___ ____ 1. wmmMMm I “But do I yW I love him?”' E Mary asked her- . E sell Am 1 ever 4 g going to feel to E ward him what a g wife feels? Was g it a silly mistake? SECRET MARRIAGE I ■ • • a • j i the new novel by M r i KATHIEEN 1 I NORRIS I At *11 botkstUtrt, |2—O.D. 3 — P > _I Jacket design by George Carlson for "Treasure Expressby Neill C. Wilson. Macmillan. ,___ l '