Evening star. [volume], February 29, 1936, Page B-2, Image 14

About Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972

Image provided by: Library of Congress, Washington, DC

                
TOWNSEND PLAN DISPUTE DOMINATES WEEK’S BOOKS'
PENSION IDEA IS DISSECTED
/_■ i
Elizabeth Bowen Does Fascinating Novel on Pattern of Life
and Love of Some Distinguished Characters—China's
Change Analyzed—A New Max Miller Volume.
By Mary-Carter Roberts.
AGE BEFORE BOOTY: AN EX
PLANATION OF THE TOWN
SEND PLAN. By Morgan J. Dor
man. With a Foreword by Dr.
Francis E. Townsend. New York:
G. P. Putnam’s Sons.
THE TOWNSEND PLAN: TAXING
FOR SIXTY. By Nicholas Roose
velt. With an Introduction by
Lewis W. Douglas. Garden City:
Doubleday, Doran & Co.
THE first of these books contains
the pros of the famous Town
send plan, stated with approval
of the plan’s originator. The
second contains the cons, with an
ominous warning contributed by a
former director of the budget. After
going through the pair of them the
reader can just take his choice. Qr,
If he prefer, he can sit back and revel
In that emotional release which is
attendant upon beholding any really
first-rate row. Perhaps, on the whole,
the dilettante attitude will prove the
more profitable.
For, surely, the embattled econ
omists have not spared one another.
In the course of the two books the lie
is passed about as frequently as any
claim is made by either side. There
seems to be just one thing that the
two schools agree upon, and that is
that Dr. Townsend himself is a good
and honest man. Apart from this, the
fur flies freely.
The interested reader will probably
find that the most pertinent poirn, oi
disagreement is in the predictions ad
vanced by the two claimants as to
the effect on business of the "transac
tions tax," which is, of course, the 2
per cent tax on all business transac
tions, of whatever nature, by w'hich
the Townsendites plan to raise the
money needed for their proposed
pensions to the aged.
Mr. Roosevelt, taking the case of
the harmless necessary shirt, and
tracing the evolution of that garment
from the state of being cotton seed
up until it covers the human form,
declares that in all 17 "transactions"
will be involved, with, of course, 17
tax levies, every one of which will be
passed on to the consumer, who thus
will bear the entire burden. More
over, says Mr. Roosevelt, each tax will
be added to the previous cost-plus
tax, so that they will mount in the im
pressive manner of compound, rather
than of simple interest. Beware, says
Mr. Roosevelt.
Mr. Dorman, on the other hand,
Ignoring the shirt, takes that more
universally symbolic article, the loaf
of bread. Between the times when it
is farmer's wheat and when it is of
fered for sale at the retail baker's, five
"transactions” take place, he says. At
present, he further says, between those
times the cost of the commodity in
creases 500 per cent, which is to say
that the wheat for which the farmer
receives il represents $5 in loaves. “Is
there not room in that wide spread to
take care of 10 cents in taxes?” he in
quires plaintively.
Of the compound interest aspect,
he makes no mention. Neither does he
believe, as Mr. Roosevelt does, that
the burden w'ill be shunted along to
the consumer, but implies that each of
the parties to the five transactions will
bear his own 2 per cent.
This difference of interpretation
would seem to be basic, to the ordinary
citizen, at least. However, it is by no
means the only one which the two
books bring out. Unfortunately,
neither one presents a complete au
thenticated body of information. Both
quote, to be sure, impressive facts
taken from reports of unimpeachable
bodies. But what, after all, is a stray
fact, more or less? The dispassionate
reader win leel that Dotn writers are
honestly, too honestly perhaps, intent
on making a case. They do protest too
much.
Summed up, Mr. Dorman’s claims
are that the Townsend plan will pre
vent all future depressions, keep in
dustry working at a peak that will
provide employment for every one,
eliminate private charity or the need
for it and widen the opportunities
open to the young.
Similarly summed up, Mr. Roose
velt’s views are that the Townsend
plan will induce an immediate de
pression of tremendous and fatal pro
portions, that it will cut down the
buying power of consumers by
enormously raising prices, that it will
consequently kill industry, increase
unemployment and demoralize the
populace.
You can take your choice. Neither
book, be it said, is large or expensive.
Both are recommended, quite „ im
partially.
THE HOUSE IN PARIS. By Elizabeth
Bowen. Alfred H. Knopf, New
York.
T3ACK in January, there came to the
desks of the Nation's book re
viewers a small, compact novel which,
one glance at the name of the author
foretold, was destined to be a
delightful professional experience.
“Ah,” they said, their austerity van
ishing like illusions in one’s 20s,
“Elizabeth Bowen has written another
book.”
A few days later came a notice from
the publisher saying that publication
date had been deferred. March 2,
they said it was to be.
"Ah,” said the reviewers, “Miss
Bowen’s novel has been snapped up
by the book-of-the-month people.”
The reviewers were right. Those
who deputize their book selection to
professionals, in the art (or is it a
science?) will find the postman mak
ing one of his most alluring deliveries
this month. "The House in Paris” was
a natural for the book-of-the-month
judges; one of those choices that
could not have been wrong.
Miss Bowen’s book is different.
As Katherine Mansfield’s books were
different. Ireland's most recent and
brightest contribution to the literary
craft proves that action is entirely dis
pensable in a novel without loss of
power to compel attention. She dips
her pen into the mysticism of her
racial heritage and writes character
and atmosphere, and nothing this
reviewer has read in recent years
manages so well to be what is called
“gripping.”
What is the book about? It starts
with an exquisitely written scene of
a meeting between a beautiful, sensi
tive, fiercely proud little boy of 9
and a pleasant, poised little girl—a
nice little girl, but by no means so
enchanting as the boy—in a house in
Paris. The little boy is waiting with
a heart-rending intensity for the com
ing of the mother he has never seen.
I
Miss Bowen makes It clear that the
child is a tragic symbol of one of
those love affairs that had to be, even
though it followed a path which de
toured around the altar. Distinguished
characters were they who participated
in the tragedy and distinguished is
their offspring. Miss Bowen demon
strates that in a few brief, crisp,
brilliant sentences.
The morning ends and Miss Bowen
takes one back over the story of the
poignant love affair which led up to it.
Love, as she sees it and writes It,
is a thing of many facets. In the
case of one character it is a force
that impels to an end of abject sacri
fice, of another, quite the reverse. In
still others, it offers nuances that
makes one extremely glad for the
eyes of Elizabeth Bowen with which
to see them.
You will like the story of little
Leopold and the pattern of life of
which he is the focal point. You will
or we won't like you. F. J. C.
WE EUROPEANS. By Julian S. Hux
ley and A. C. Haddon. With a
contribution by A. M. Carr-Saun
ders. New York: Harper & Bros.
rPHIS book is devoted to the propo
A sition that, on the basis of any,
scientific classification, the existence
of race cannot be proven. The emi
nent authors take up in turn the
various methods of race determina
tion, hair form and hair color, skin
color, eye color and eye form, stature,
head form, nasal form, physiological
and psychological characters and
blood groups. And in every case they
conclude that sufficient scientific evi
dence of definite grouping is absent.
What we generally accept as “racial’'
characteristics or ties they rate as cul
iuiai aiiu ouuw, invini uiau vvtiuv
logical.
The authors admit “ethnic groups’*
as a loose classification, but repre
sent nationalism today as the defini
tive standard. That, they point out,
rests on external, rather than bio
logical factors. And the error to which
they devote their most pointed com
ment is the fact that nations are cur
rently attempting to use the pretense
of “race” purity, or “race” superiority
for purely nationalistic ends. Such
claims, say the writers, are scientific
ally baseless and, in an age which dei
fies science, are particularly offensive
to the realistic mind.
The book is particularly concerned
with Europe, where the aforesaid con
dition exists most conspicuously. It
contains a survey of the “ethnic
groups" and maps their national dis
tribution. The result is, as any think
ing person would foresee, practically
polyglot. It is simply devastating to
any claim that a particular nation
comprises pure racial stock of any
variety, or that any “return” to for
mer racial purity could be possible.
While these statements are not In
themselves surprising, the book does
contain much specific information
that the average reader probably will
not have known. It is interestingly
done and would seem to be pertinent
at the present time.
CHINA CHANGES. By G. J. Yorke.
New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons.
'T'HE author of this book was sent
out to China as Reuter’s corre
spondent and served there in that
capacity for two years. In that time
he had a variety of lively experiences;
he went with the Chinese forces into
Jehol when the Japanese were advanc
ing, he accompanied the anti-Com
munist forces in Klangsi, he witnessed
in Fukien the rebellion of the famous
19th Route Army and saw the rise and
fall of the short-lived “People's Revo
lutionary Government of China.’’
He also accompanied a commission
sent out by the Chinese government
to inspect the flood-control system of
the Yangste and Huai River Valleys.
Finally, when he got a little time to
himself, he settled in a monastic
hermitage to write a book. And the
book, of course, is the present work.
It contains much interesting mi
terlal. In its assembling there is no
particular coherence, but, one gathers,
Mr. Yorke was not aiming at much
more than setting down his impres
sions and memories. With never-to-be
sufflciently-commended modesty, he
remarks of his effort, . . honesty
compels me to admit that I am not
yet fully qualified to write seriously
about the country, for I have Deen
resident for only some two years.
... I have dreamed of this country
since childhood, and have read all the
translations on which I could lay my
hands. But interest in a subject can
not make up for the knowledge that
only time and study can bring.”
He has done a book, however, which
does show, without any partisan
political passion, a nation in flux, and
he has offered some reasonable seem
ing interpretations of the forces back
of the change. His style at no time
rises above the level ef acceptable
journalism, which is unfortunate, for
one feels that his vision has been be
yond that. However, to the average
reader, this circumstance will prob
ably be of advantage. The book is
certainly an honest and worthy study.
THE NEW BOOK OP ENGLISH
VERSE. Edited by Charles Wil
liams. New York: The Macmillan
Co.
'T'HE editor of this new anthology of
English verse states in his intro
duction, ‘‘The two rules laid down by
the publisher for this work were (1)
that it should contain nothing that
was in the ‘‘Oxford Book of English
Verse” or the ‘‘Golden Treasury," (2)
that every' poem included should be
of poetic importance.” *
He adds that, except for one stanza
from Chaucer, the first rule has, he
believes, been kept, although the many
editions of the “Treasury” make it
difficult to be sure. It is when one
comes to the second rule, of course,
that the fun really begins.
No two persons could possibly agree
on that. Happily there are still some
things which cannot be decided bg
statistical measurements, and poetic
Importance remains one of them. On
the whole, however, the collection
which Mr. Williams has assembled,
beginning with its earliest dates In the
fourteenth century add ending among
the Victorians, seems one to own. In
its newness, one will not, of course,
place it quite so high as the “Oxford
Book” or the “Treasury,” but still one
should have it. It contains poems,
the omission of which from these two
.great collections, has always been
puzzling, as, for example, the “Christ
r,
abel" of Coleridge, and much of
Donne.
Some amusement may be aroused by
the editor’s extremely careful discus
sion of his own canons of selection,
when, as for example, he discusses
whether a poeiri celebrating a person
of an "undesirable social order" should
be included or not. Happily this fus
siness has not seemed to Intrude in his j
work and perhaps the publishers will |
omit the introduction in future edi- |
tions. For the present the book is a ,
good addition to that dubious literary
group—the anthologies.
FOG AND MEN ON BEHRING SEA.
By Max Miller. New York: E. P.
Dutton Sc Co.
]V/fAX MILLER, who covered the
water front so famously, in this
present work writes of a trip on the
Northland, the Government boat that
patrols the edge of the Artie lCepack
and the forbidding coasts of Alaska
and its islands. He is humorous and
grim; his book has a distinctly indi
vidual flavor among the great welter
of travel tales of the lovely-lovely va
riety. He goes neither mystic nor
chatty, as so many of our glove-trot
ting scriveners do. but tells a concen
trated and pungent tale of what he
observed. Much of that was unpleas
ant; he does not gloss it over. Still
he contrives less unpleasant reading
than do the manv who are so deter
minedly radiant In reporting their ■
journeys. With so obviously a flair
for travel writing, he moves one to
hope, albeit cautiously, that he will not
stay home too much in the future, j
And that is a very large concession.
MEN IN SUN HELMETS. By Vic
Hurley. New York: E. P. Dutton
& Co.
'T'HIS is a collection of brief narra.
tives from the lives of white men
living in the Philippines. The author
has already written one book about :
that corner of the world—“Southeast
of Zamboanga," He has spent a num
ber of years down there, and his pres
ent volume would seem to be chiefly
random stories taken from memories
of his wandering existence.
Some of them are pretty good.
They deal variously with white men
and women and natives. The impres
sion which the whole collection gives
is of a life that more often is des
perate than glamorous, that more
often destroys than allows to flourish.
One can by no means commend the
work to the bankerer after romantic
tropical nirvanas. It deals pretty ex
clusively with what is known as the
seamy side, and, in the Philippines,
that seems to be a shade worse even
than it is at home.
One wonders if a debunking move
ment for travel books is under way.
By some standards it is due, though
certain dreamers will no doubt regret
the change. Anyway, the present
book is no cruise literature.
TREASURE EXPRESS. By Neill C.
Wilson. New York: The McMillan
Co.
'T'HIS is a series of narratives, told
1 in good swinging style, about the
hold-ups or the attempts at hold-ups
of the stages which carried the treas
ure out of the gold fields of our West,
in the glamorous days of the 50s.
Robberies, pursuits, captures, escapes
and lynchings fill the hearty pages. It
is a slice of typical Americana, to use
a phrase beloved by critics, and it is
carefully authenticated, too. One can
commend it without reservation.
MORE STUDIES IN MURDER. By
Edmund Pearson. New York: Har
rison Smith and Robert Haas.
'T'HERE is no one. perhaps, who
writes of the human animal gone
^rong more engagingly than Edmund
Pearson. He has the faculty for re
lating gruesome crimes without being
either too appalling or too clinical.
In his most recent volume he rebates
the stories of some dozen or so crim
inals (it makes an uncountable num
ber of crimes) with such propriety
that you might give the book to your
most sensitive friend without causing
offense. And yet he does not slight
horrid details, either. Clearly, he is
unique in this kind of writing.
His wretches here range from such
heights of infancy as those achieved
by J. P. Watson, who could not re
member how many women he had
murdered for their money, to little
known, obscure characters, who killed
from sheer stupidity. In addition to
crimes for which malefactors have
been brought to justice, he cites the
facts of certain unsolved mysteries—
notably the Elwell case and the Lizzie
Borden legend—and the spectacular
career of Jack the Ripper. In these
latter instances he tells the facts
that actually were discovered and bal
ances them against the accumulation
of popular myths. It all makes re
markably good reading.
Then, as a sort of comic epilogue,
he gives the stories of a number of
trials of a less serious nature. Among
these is the case that distracted the
clerical world of England—the grave
scandal of the archdeacon's pajamas
and the shocking career of the abom
inable Yelverton, who married neither
well nor wisely.
On the whole, it would seem that
Mr. Pearson's method of handling
the records of crime is the most
healthful one possible. He neither
glorifies the criminal nor horrifies
the reader, but contrives to make the
whole subject contemptible, chiefly by
showing its ineptness. As has been
said, he is unique in tills somewhat
difficult field.
MURDER FOR WHAT? By Kurt
Steel. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Mer
rill Co.
COME months ago the author of
^ this second novel produced his
first, called ‘ Murder of a Dead Man."
The publishers for some Inexplicable
reason annouinced at the time that
he was the holder of a Phi Beta Kap
pa Key. me present reviewer re
marked that, even so, he knew how
to handle the popular Manhattan
argot. The present book bears fur
ther shining evidence that this is so
and, while the first one was pretty
good, viewed Just as a mystery, this
one, viewed Just as a mystery, calls
for downright enthusiasm.
Mr. Steel does not go in for purple
hangings and oriental idols as scen
ery for his detective, neither does he
conceive of crime as something to be
done in fancy dress. He gives us a
perfectly routine little homicide, a
State policeman in up-State New
York, found shot to death in the
woods. The sleuth is the Hyer of
his first novel—a matter-of-fact per
son hailing from Iowa. Hyer makes
use neither of the sixth sense nor
hasheesh in tracking the miscreants
to cover. He does seem to one a trifle
indefatigable as a wlse-cracker, some
times, but that is his worst fault.
He solves his mystery by such means
as appeal to one's common sense. He
is a distinct relief among the current
run of fiction man hunters.
It is to be hoped that Mr. Steel does
not wear his creditable creation thin
in forthcoming books, but he probably
will. In the meantime, "Murder for
What?” is a superior detective story.
By Thomas R. Henry.
TODAY is the end of Winter^—
the official Winter of Govern
ment weather forecasters, re
gardless of the calendar.
All over the United States it has
been about as hard a Winter as the
old folks can remember. Epeciany in i
Washington, it seems to the average
citizen, the season has been especially j
severe. There has been nothing like I
it since 1918, and even then the cold
was not so consistent, nor the snow so
enduring.
Now, a bad Winter is a rather im
portant matter for most of us. It has
a more immediate, profound effect on
our lives than most man-made affairs
can possibly have. Taxes may go sky
high. but they hardly can advance
for the average citizen more than the
price of a couple of extra tons of coal,
a lot of extra doctor bills and the other
additional expenses that come with
prolonged cold weather. The money
item is important enough, not to men
tion the discomfort, the inconven
ience, the menace to life and health,
or the absolute physical suffering. j
Naturally, nearly every one wants
to know the reason why one Winter
should be almost April-like from De
cember to March with, at the most,
only a few light snow flurries, while
another remains almost consistently
KaIotct frAAviner urifh ofrAAtc
walks to be shoveled day after day, I
and the coal pile vanishing faster
than a snowdrift under a hot sun.
There isn’t any very satisfactory
I answer. For such as there is. one
goes to J. B. Kincer, chief of the
division of climatology of the Weather
Bureau. His job is to keep track of
those seasonal and annual trends of
weather which constitute climate.
Beyond much doubt, says Mr. Kincer,
| climate runs in cycles. There will be
a period of steadily increasing tem
peratures for a number of years, fol
lowed by a period of steadily decreas.
ing temperatures until the point is
reached from which they first started
to rise, after which they will go up
again.
There are all sorts of such cycles.
We are very familiar with one of
them—the year. The four seasons re
peat themselves every 12 months. We
safely can predict today that there
will. be some uncomfortably warm
weather next July and some uncom
fortably cold weather next January.
Only about once in a century would
our predictions go wrong—at the
worst.
'T'HIS annual progress of the sea
sons is unique among weather
cycles. We knowr the cause of it—
From "Treasure Express ” by Neill C. Wilson. Macmillan.
Brief Reviews of New Books on Varied Themes
Non-Fiction.
AMERICAN DIPLOMATIC AND
CONSULAR PRACTICE. By
Graham H. Stuart. New York:
D. Appleton Century Co. A com
plete survey of the history, organi
zation and working of the ma
chinery that conducts United
States foreign relations, by a pro
fessor of politics, Stanford Uni
versity.
PARTNERS IN PROGRESS. By
Esse V. Hathaway. New York:
Mcgraw Hill Book Co. The lives
and achievements of pioneers of
science and Invention done in the
familiar manner.
THE STRANGER IN AMERICA. By
Charles William Janson. With
introduction and notes by Dr. Carl
S. Driver. New York: The Press
of the Pioneers, Inc. The experi
ences of an Englishman in the
United States back in 1793, first
printed in 1807, proving chiefly
that the visiting'Britisher has not
changed much since those days.
Some interesting passages.
JOYS OP THE TRAIL. By Hamlin
Garland. Chicago: The Book
fellows. Nostalgic essays on the
passing beauties of the wilderness
by a veteran American writer who
ought to know. A very pleasant
little book.
WHY BRING THAT UP? A Guide
to and Prom Seasickness. By Dr.
J. X. Montague. New York:
Home Health Library. Amusing
but useful information along the
lines the title indicates, written by
an eminent physician.
THE TRIUMPH OP THE PASSIVE
VIRTUES AS ILLUSTRATED IN
THE ODESSEY OP HOMER. By
Rev. Charles X. Oooildge. Boston:
K
I
The Stratford Co. Religious In
terpretation of the Greek classic.
Superficial.
THE JEWISH PROBLEM. By Julius
Hahn and Henry Mueller. Boston:
Meador Publishing Co. Advocacy
of Christianization of Hebrews,
written by an American and a
German in collaboration. Foolish.
WAKE UP AND LIVE! By Dorothea
Brande. New York: Simon <Ss
• Schuster. Pep psychology about
how to become a terrific success
by following .a set of rules. Sur
prising from an ordinarily en
lightened publishing house.
A NEW STANDARD BIBLE DIC
TIONARY. By M. W. Jacobus, E.
C. Lane and A. C. Zenos. New
York: Funk & Wagnalls Co. The
third revised edition of this work.
Fiction.
CLOSE OF PLAY. By N. Warner
v Hooke, New York: E. P, Dutton
* Oo. Smfles-nnd-teers romance
0
of English boy and girl. A nice
book—but what of it?
CITY FOR CONQUEST. By Aben
Kandel. New York: Covicl Friede.
A novel that is a demonstration,
rather than a study of New York’s
particular brand of vulgarity. One
(mines, unkindly, that a good bit
of the demonstration is uncon
scious cm the author’s part.
NARNA DARRELL. By Beverly R.
Tucker. Boston: The Stratford
Co. Story of lovers’ reincarnations
through the ages.
FIVE LITTLE HEIRESSES. By Alice
Duer Miller. New York: Dodd
Mead Is Co. Lovely "society” girl
• playing chaperone to earn her
living. Perfectly routine Miller
novel.
MONSIONOR. By poran Hurley.
New York: Longmans Green it Co.
Story of ambitious .priest rather
.naively told
DOCTOR OF THE NORTH COUN
1
TRY. By E^l Vinton McComb.
New York: Thomas Y. Crowell Co.
Realistic picture of a country doc
tor’s life by an author who is a
doctor himself.
AUGUSTUS. By Gunther Birkenfeld.
Translated from German by Wini
fred Ray. New York: Liveright
Publishing Corp. Novel on the life
of the first Roman Emperor, well
and convincingly done.
MONTANA BOUND. By Stuart Hardy.
New York: Green Circle Books.
Western stuff and then more West
ern stuff.
HOMICIDE HAVEN. By J. V. Turner.
New York: D. Appleton-Century.
Mystery of corpse on the floor,
solved by Scotland Yard with
amateur assistance.
THE JAIL GATES ARE OPEN. By
David Hume. New York: D. Apple
ton-Century Co. Detectives Cardy
and Son help Scotland Yard solve
the mystery of the counterfeiters.
DEAD END STREET. By Lee Thayer.
New York: Dodd Mead Sc Co.
Peter Clancy solves the killing of
Patrolman.Duffy and gets into no
end of adventures the while.
THE CRIMSON PATCH. By Phoebe
Atwood .Taylor, New York: W. W.
Norton & Co. Murder down East,
with the amiable wise-cracking
detective, Asey Mayo, doing the
solving.
THE A. B. C. MURDERS. By Agatha
Christie. New York: Dodd Mead
Sc Co. Murder in a series, solved
by Poirot, Miss Christie’s very... ver .
. French sleuth.
Poetry.
THE TITANIC. By E. J. Pratt: To
ronto: The Macmillan Co. of
Cshada. Fine narrative poem com
memorating the great sea disaster
of 1813.
f,
Illustration by Richard Bennett from "Skookum and Sandy*
Doubleday, Doran & Co., a 'new book for young people.
TIME BRINGS A HARD WINTER
And It May Bring Others in a Cold Cycle Possibly Develop
ing Now—Weather Experts Cover Long Period Seeking
Reason for Cyclic Effects That Make Our Climate.
the changing position of the earth i
with respect to the sun. We know, i
within a relatively few days, how :
long it will last. I
It is much more difficult to get any :
adequate picture of any of the others. 1
Nobody ever has succeeded in doing so,
as yet. There are Winters and Sum
mers of the ages and of the centuries.
For about 500,000,000 years there has
been life on earth. During this un
imaginably long span of time there
have been millions of years when I
Greenland was covered with a temper
ate zone forest and other millions of
years when the District of Columbia
was on the edge of a great ice sheet.
Cold period always has succeeded
warm period, and vice versa. Nobody
knows the reason why. There has
been, apparently, no regularity in the
swings. Some ice ages have been long
and some short. The swinging of
climate is not like the swing of a
pendulum—so far as climatologists
have been able to determine.
It is entirely possible, even probable,
that superimposed upon these climatic
cycles which can be expressed in geo
logical time scales only, there have
been shorter cycles whose phases have
endured only for a few centuries.
Very likely Europe was consistently
colder than it is today during the so
called Dark Ages and began to get
warm about the time of the Renais
sance.
But superimposed upon these cycles
of centuries—standing between them
and the cycle of the year—are much
more definite cycles of which Mr.
Kincer has made an intensive study.
They run for about 50 years from peak
to peak. For a time the temperature
of the earth—taken as a whole—will
rise consistently from year to year.
Then, after it reaches a certain high
point, it will fall consistently. The
phases of such cycles run anywhere
from 10 to 40 years. This fact
renders them of small value for long
range forecasting.
Now for the past 20 years the earth |
—and more specifically the North!
American continent—has been in one
of these climatological upswings. By
and large, taking the continent as a
whole and disregarding local vagaries
of weather, it has been getting warmer
and warmer. There has been a rather
consistent piling up of an excess of
heat. There has been plenty of cold
weather, but the general trend has
been unmistakable. It has had some
rather picturesque and tragic conse
quences—such as the great droughts of
1930 and 1934 and the great dust
storms which brought such tragedy to
the Western plains.
___ _ >_1!_i.:_4V.;*P
■ noivci AO CVCAJ iiiuivav»v« ‘****» --
•*■ upswing of the cycle has reached its '
highest point and that this Winter;
marks the beginning of the downward
swing. How long it will continue no
body knows. There is no great reason
to be alarmed. This does not mean
that next Winter will be colder than
this Winter, the next Winter colder
still, and so on. It only means, pro
viding the rather vague indications are
correct, that during the next 10 or
more years there will be appreciably
more cold weather than during the
last decade. It is likely that some of
the Winters will be quite cold. There
will be necessarily a piling up of cold
somewhere, provided the cycle runs
true to form.
Tested on the basis of daily, weekly
or monthly temperatures at any par
ticular spot in the United States, this
cycle probably would not be at all ap
parent. It would be masked by the
relatively much greater effect of local
and seasonal variations. Mr. Kincer
extracts the main trend from these by
a rather complex statistical method—
the computation of the ‘‘floating
mean.’’ This is a bit tricky to the
amatuer. It is apt to be set down,;
at first glance, as a mathematical
stunt. Actually it is a scientific ;
method of getting at an underlying j
reality.
The undulations of the curve of this
floating mean probably mean as much
to humanity at large as any minor
war. They may, if the speculations j
of some philosophers arc accepted,
mean a great deal more. But before
anybody can have an adequate con
cept of the cycle it is essential to
understand how Mr. Kincer goes
about the Job of calculation.
The normal temperature for Wash
ington is exactly 55 degrees above zero
Fahrenheit. This is established as
follows:
Every day the hourly thermometer
readings are added and divided by 24.
The result is the mean temperature
for that day. Then the mean tem
peratures of each day of the year are
added and the sum divided by 365.
Then the mean temperature of 50
years are added and the sum divided
by 50.
The thermometer would read 55 all j
ih> if there were no temperature i
variations, such as come with the four
seasons and with night and day. So.
In computing the floating mean, the
first step is to represent 55 degrees
as a straight line.
Actually, of course, the mercury sel
dom reads exactly 55. There is hardly
such a thing as a “normal day.” On
many days in the Summer it remains
pretty consistently around 80. On
many days in the Winter it sinks
almost to zero. If the average for a
day is 80, the meteorologists subtract
55 and get plus 25—the number of
degrees above normal. If the average
is zero they set down a —55, which
s the number of degrees below normal.
Then all the minuses and all the
>luses are added together and the
smaller subtracted from the greater
If the result is a plus figure for the
year, that year has been warmer than
normal, ir it is a minus figure the
year has been colder than normal.
Over a span of 50 years the two
should be theoretically exactly equal.
[VOW for the “floating mean.” Take,
for example, the 10 years from
1900 to 1910. The variations from
normal are added and divide by 10.
Let us say the mean for these 10 years
Is live egrees above normal. On Mr.
Kincer’s chart it is marke five points
above the straight Hne, which repre
sents 55 degrees, the 50-year average.
Then comes 1911 with a mean tem
perature of $ degrees above normal.
Mr. Klncer calculates another 10-year
average, starting this time not with
1900, but with 1901. This average is
the second point on his curve. It prob
ably will not be 5 plus 7 divided by 2, or
iYi. because the mean for 1900 has,
been dropped out altogether; Then:
comes 1912, with a temperature ex-'
ictly normal. Again the 10-year
iverage is calculated, this time start -
ng with 1902. Thus is obtained the
hird point on his chart. And so on,
or as long as one cares to carry out
he calculations.
Then the points above or below nor
nal are Joined by a line. It this line
■emains for any number of years above
he straight line which represents the
>0-year normal, it indicates that there
s a consistent excess of temperature,
[f it remains below, it indicates a
:onsistent deficit of temperature. And
if the line consistently goes up or
3own, it indicates an Increasing or
iecreasing temperature. By using this
method the effects of a single exces
sively hot or excessively cold 12
months do not hide the general trend.
During the warm period, now believed
to have passed, there was some of the
coldest weather of the century, and
very likely, if we now ai t entering a
cold period, there will be days, months
ind years as hot as anything we have
known in the past.
Somewhat paradoxically, that is a
characteristic of warm and cold
swings. The coldest weather is likely
to come in theWarm periods and the
hottest weather in the cold periods.
Such extreme variatioas. however
have very little effect on the floating
mean. During a hot upswing there
will be more hot weather and during
a cold swing more cold weather. One
cannot predict with anv certainty that
the Winter of 1937 will be cold, but if
the present indications are sustained
the prediction of a cold Winter should
be a much better guess than the pre
fiction of a very mild Winter. The
percentages would be all in favor of
the pessimist, but in weather, as in
aorse racing, percentage sometimes
?oes haywire.
The same calculation of the floating
mean can be applied to any point in
the United States for which there are
adequate observations. The “normal
line’’ for the continent, or for the
world, can be established by taking
all of them into account. Apparently
the factor responsible for the cycle is
world-wide in its effect. Just about
everything in weather has a world
"*“v avivtwtiawuil.
J-JERE, then, is the first step in the
explanation of the present cold
Winter. There must be a succession
of cold Winters to verify it. If there
is such a succession, it will be fairly
safe to assume that we are on the
downswing of the cycle. We are en
tering one of the Winters of the
century. Grandpa no longer will be
able to boast of the high snowdrifts
when he was a boy out in Wisconsin.
Now for some of Mr. Kincer’s spe
cific evidence for these undulating
cycles. Back in 1778 Rev. Ezra Styles,
president of Yale University, began
noting dally temperatures at New
Haven in his diary. He continued the
self-appointed task faithfully for about
i year, when British troops invaded
-he little college town and, among'
other mean acts, smashed his ther
■nometer. This was a serious loss in
:hose days. Dr. Styles couldn’t get
another immediately, but when he
could he went on just as before. His
successors continued the task until,
more than a century later, a Weather
Bureau station was established at New
Haven. So, for this New England city,
there is a continuous daily temperature
record for 135 years. It is the longest
record in North America.
Here is what the New Haven record
shows: Starting with 1801 the tem
perature—especially the Winter tem
perature—piled up a cumulative excess
for 12 years. Then there was a down
swing for 37 years, from 1813 to 1849;
for the next 15 years the climate was
getting progressively warmer again;
in 1864 there was another reversal
and it got colder for nine years; then
it rose steadily for 19 years; then it.
fell steadily for 20 years; then, in
1913, it started rising again, and has
been going up ever since, until this
year. There may be even a-more pro
found cycle shown in the figures, for
the peaks and depressions of the
curves were not always at the same
heights. There is an outstanding re
cession in the curve from a maximum,
in 1812 to a minimum in 1873, a
period of about 60 years; then a pro
nounced rise up to the present.
Temperature records for Washing
ton begin with the year 1817. From
that period on they can be compared,
(Continued on Third Page.)
___ ____ 1.
wmmMMm
I “But do I yW
I love him?”'
E Mary asked her- .
E sell Am 1 ever 4
g going to feel to
E ward him what a
g wife feels? Was
g it a silly mistake?
SECRET
MARRIAGE I
■ • • a • j i
the new novel by M r
i KATHIEEN 1
I NORRIS I
At *11 botkstUtrt, |2—O.D. 3 —
P >
_I
Jacket design by George Carlson for "Treasure Expressby Neill C. Wilson. Macmillan. ,___
l '