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Hitler Victory Thought Likely To Make U. S. Gold Worthless Any Price Nation Pays for Unneeded Yellow Metal Declared Too High, Since It Cannot Be Resold in Market By Herbert M. Bratter. When in 1871 Germany exacted from France a great post-war indemnity, the former was enabled to substitute gold for silver in its monetary system and thereby a long step was taken toward the world-wide demonetization and aban donment of silver as an international standard of value. History probably will show that the French capitulation to Germany in 1940 has sealed similarly the fate of the international gold standard, whose lingering “'last illness” dates frome the great depression. For the Nazi conquerors of Europe, as self-confessed executioners of the gold standard, intend that the reichsmark shall be the unit of value in all their far-reaching international barter deal ings. As reported recently from Berlin, "after the Reich has conquered France and Britain, it will declare war on the gold standard.” This should give Americans food for serious thought. We own about $20,000, 000,000 of monetary gold, or nearly three times as much as all the rest of the world combined. More gold is pouring In at the rate of billions of dollars’ worth a year. In one recent week $532,000,000 of foreign gold arrived here and addi tional large shipments are believed to be on the water as this is written. The United States has long been the only country ready to buy all gold from all comers at a fixed price. The Govern ment need not buy all gold. The law does not require it. But the Govern ment elects to do so, paying the legal price of $35 an ounce, as compared with $20.67 prior to 1933. America Is the Market. Some Americans, in self-delusion, ar gue that $35 is not too high a price to pay for gold, that $35 is the world price. What makes it the world price, however, is the fact that we are the world's big- < gest buyer. We are the market. Just let us stop buying gold and we shall quickly see that no other buyer or group of buyers can take our place. Even the most ardent defender of the present American gold policy admits that the price of gold would take a dive or Vanish altogether the moment we stopped buying. And, conversely, there can be no shadow of doubt that we could hot sell our gold stock abroad. If we could sell it, it would buy abroad only a fraction of the value we have given for it. Gold is too great a luxury for the outside world to absorb by the billion. When a country holds nearly three fourths of the world's gold, any price is too high a price to pay for gold we do not need. The large excess reserves of our banking system, the close to $2, 000,000.000 of gold held idle in the Treas ury, the power to alter the legal reserve requirements of the monetary and bank ing system all are proof that any price is too high a price for us to pay for more gold. In the 1920s we ran up a huge speculative structure on $4,000,000, 000. Today we hold five times as many dollars of gold. Just as it is a fiction to buy 20 cents worth of silver for 35 cents and then put it on the Government's books as worth $1.29, so it is self-deception for the country to buy gold at $35 an ounce and so value it on the Treasury's books. It cost $35. But it isn’t worth $35. There may be no better way now of keep ing our books on gold, but we should be frank enough to recognize that $35 an ounce is an artificial price. Becomes American Legal Tender. So far as it goes, the Federal Reserve Bulletin is correct when it states: ‘‘The purchase of the gold has cost the Treas ury nothing." But the reader should not assume that it has cost the country nothing. The law that enables a for eigner to get $35 an ounce for gold here is a law directing every American to give the same consideration to those dollars as to any other $35. The for eigner's gold becomes American legal tender. The gold we now have we are ‘‘stuck with.” We cannot get rid of it. To talk of employing it in post-war reconstruc tion abroad, as did a high official last year, is pointless, for what the post war world will want from us is real wealth Buch as foodstuffs, clothing and manu factured goods: not gold and silver tokens of wealth, the “receipts" that have been given us during past years in exchange for real wealth. On the books the cost of the bullion policies of the 1930s as yet shows no loss, and for silver indeed it shows an imaginary profit; but the loss is none the less real. What about our future gold policy? We read that in Paris the Germans may have captured as much as $1,850, 000,000 of gold. That figure may be en tirely erroneous, but it'is known that several hundred millions fell to the in vader in the low countries, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Czecho-Slovakla and Austria. The war indemnity is still to be announced. And, if England is de feated, Germany may draw tribute from British Empire gold mines, directly or indirectly. Question Is Raised. This raises the question: Should Uncle Sam continue indefinitely buying all gold from all comers? Should he keep posted the official notice which in effect tells any conqueror that he is free to bring his gold and sell it for good dollars? Or should he adopt a new policy, tell ing foreign countries: “You no longer have the right to sell us your gold. When we give dollars for gold, hereafter, we shall consider it a favor to be recipro cated by you in some different way.” Our buying of gold, it should be noted, is equivalent to putting dollars into the hands of the sellers. Since we now have no need at all for the gold, and our banks have billions of dollars of surplus reserves, the excuse made for continu ing the buying policy is that it makes jobs for Americans to produce the goods and services foreigners buy here with the proceeds of their gold. The main difference between work creation through bullion imports and through the W. P. A. is that in the latter instance we recognize the process for what it is. If we add to our gold stocks, issuing gold certificates, as much poten tial inflation is involved as there would be if we financed the W. P. A. with issues of greenbacks. At least in the latter case the benefits would not be scattered abroad. The gold problem here has been in reality the problem of public spending. Under the W. P. A. the spend ing is planned. Under the uncontrolled bullion program it is left to the wishes and panic of foreigners. Underlying the Nation's grim adher ence to the gold-buying program since Munich has been the desire to help Eng land and France. To that end all gold has been cheerfully received by the Treasury, including gold from the ag gressor nations, even bars stamped with the hammer and sickle of the U. S. S. R. Discrimination Is Urged. In view of the recent proposal to ab sorb for joint marketing the commodity surpluses of the Western Hemisphere, and in the light of the administration's defense of the foreign silver program “because it puts dollars into the hands of Mexico,” one may expect the present policy of buying gold to be continued in sofar as it helps Latin America and Canada. But, in view of the likelihood of complete German dominance of Europe and Europe's colonies, it may behoove the Government to be discriminating in its gold buying. No new legislation is needed. No present law. but only a me chanical and lonely adherence to de funct gold-standard tradition, dictates the continued purchase of gold from countries whose political and trade methods we oppose. If Germany defeats England, contin uance of our present gold policy is bound to help the totalitarian powers very materially. Only America seems to lack understanding of the situation. Abroad the "gold problem” is better appreciated. British financial observers frankly ad mit that “the value of the gigantic gold stock of the United State depends upon the defeat of Nazi Germany.” a recent Canadian article on gold sagely concludes as follows: "Gold is a wasting asset with an obvi ously dubious future and it would be only common sense to cash in on the maximum possible quantity at the top of the market. The German Viewpoint. From Berlin an American newspaper correspondent reports as the German view that: * • The United States is beginning to approach the day when they will have lost all its partners in the game of gold and will be alone with all the world’s gold in its vaults, making it valueless.” The Treasury is now reported to be studying ways of keeping war-booty gold and silver out of the country. A bill to effect that end (S. 3977) was introduced by Senator Townsend, Republican, of Delaware on May 14. Drift in monetary matters is no longer tolerable. A change in our gold buying policy is long overdue. Europe’s Octopus. | * - ► i ! —MUM———i Japan Set for Final Thrust Grab Feared After ‘China Incident* Is Liquidated By Marquis W. Childs. Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, center, is shown inspecting a new tank for his remarkable Chinese Army. The officer on his right is Gen. Chang Chih-chung, his aide de camp, hero of the battle of Shanghai in 1932. —A. P. Photo. LITERALLY in every corner of the world the present upheaval is mak ing itself felt, altering the structure of states and changing the pattern of lives both great and small. This military and political earthquake has rocked not only Paris, London, Washington, but Singa pore, Tokio and Chungking—the sta bility of the East as well as the West. For three years the Chinese nationalist government under Gen. Chiang Kai-shek has held out against Japan. That has been one of the strangest paradoxes or our time—that a so-called backward country could so long resist one of the great industrial and military powers. While at the same time France, consid ered to have the most formidable army in the world, collapsed in 18 days. But now with Britain and France pow erless to defend their stake in the East and the United States compelled to meet grave problems in the Atlantic, Japan proposes to liquidate as quickly as pos sible the “China incident.*’ This is to be done first of all by a process of strangu lation. China’s difficult and hazardous access to the outside world is to be closed. That is the real meaning of Japan's action against Hong Kong and other British possessions in the East. The im mediate Japanese demands call for ces sation of all shipments to Chiang Kai shek’s government through British owned Burma and French Indo-China. France has already ordered her Ambas sador in Tokio to accede to this demand, having no other alternative. The British have balked and that is why Hong Kong is now menaced. Once the China Incident” is liqui dated, the ambition of the Japanese will have no limit. Indo-China, the Dutch East Indies, Singapore, perhaps even Australia and New Zealand, perhaps the Philippines, seem to be ready for the taking. The only deterrent is the United State fleet, which in recent months has been based at Hawaii supposedly to pre vent the Japanese grab. It appeared to be a major reversal of policy when two weeks ago a large part of the fleet was reported steaming for the Atlantic via the Panama Canal. This was widely interpreted as meaning that the government had abandoned the Pa cific in light of the threat to British rule in the Atlantic. Then just as suddenly the fleet moved back to Pearl Harbor and Admiral Joseph Richardson, commander in-chief, issued an indignant denial that the movement of any considerable num ber of the vessels of his command was contemplated. Elaborate Chess Game. This is. of course, an elaborate chess 'game across the broad waters of the great ocean. To announce the moves in advance would be a severe handicap. Both the Navy and the State Depart ment are keeping mum as to what the next shift of the fleet may be. They are considerably annoyed at speculation by editorial writers and columnists on fu ture American policy in the East, insist ing that all such speculation is made use of immediately by Japan. In this chess game across 5,000 miles of ocean the United States stands to lose comparatively little. At any rate, im mediate losses would be comparatively small since the trade with China has already virtually disappeared. But the Chinese are threatened with complete domination by Japan and the destruc tion of the last stronghold of their na tionalist government. Even in a time so full of shocks and surprises this threat disturbs many Americans who have fol lowed with sympathy and admiration the three-year struggle of Chiang Kai shek’s government. What are the chances for survival now that the Japanese are seemingly free of all Western restraint? The Chinese, Colombia Gains 50 Pet. Population in 20 Years The Census Bureau of Colombia has recently published the results of the civil census taken on July 5, 1938, the first complete one to be taken since 1918. During those 20 years the population has increased by 2,846,816, or almost 50 per cent, rising from 5,855,000 to 8,701, 816. Colombia is still predominantly rural 6.008,991 inhabitants being classi fied as country dwellers, against 2,692,825 city dwellers. The capital, Bogota, is the largest city in the republic, with 330,312 inhabitants. It has more than doubled in size since 1918, when its population was 143,994. Colombia has six cities of more than 75, 000 inhabitants; the other five are Me dellin, 168,266 ( 79,146 in 1918); Barran quilla, 152,348 (64,543 in 1918); Cali, 101, 883 ( 45,525 in 1918); Manizales, 86,027 (43,201 in 1918); and Cartagena, 84,937 (51,302 in 1918). Unofficial figures released to the press stated that the Indian population of the republic was 106,807, divided among 398 tribes. A it is obvious, must from now on depend almost entirely for military supplies on Soviet Russia. Government sources here indicate that during the past three years more essential materials have come from Russia than from any other source. And the Soviets have, of course, a real self-interest in assuring continu ance of resistance to Japan. If the Jap anese conquest should be completed, Russia would have an aggressive and powerful nation on her immediate bor der. It is particularly important for the Soviets to prevent this at a time when German might is all-powerful in Europe. But certain practical considerations enter in here. Russian military supplies —up to $150,000,000, according to sources here—have reached Gen. Chiang by two different routes. One, and perhaps the* least important, has been the difficult and hazardous land route which branches off from an extension of the Trans Siberian Railroad. The highway from the railhead passes through desert country and is frequently all but im passable. Mostly Sea Traffic. The bulk of Russian aid since 1937 has not gone over this long and dubious route, but by sea to Rangoon, thence by rail to Laichow and from there through Burma by truck to Kinming and Chung king, the latter a distance of nearly 1,500 miles. If the British were to yield to Japanese demands, this route for Russian aid would be closed, and all help, perforce would go over the land route. Whatever the Immediate future of the present Chinese government, the build ing of the Burma road will go down in history as one of mankind's great achievements. It was constructed under the grave emergency of war without the aid of any modern road-building ma chinery—over difficult mountain terrain and through disease-ridden swamps. Peasants carried the stone on their backs and crushed it with hand tools. And all this was done in less than two years. No one who has traveled over the Burma road to the capital, Chungking, but has been deeply impressed by what this undertaking meant in human toil, suffering and patience. When Ambas sador Nelson T. Johnson was in Wash ington on leave a year ago he showed motion pictures of the Burma road. Mr. Johnson, who had come out over this highway built by hand, spoke of it as a “miracle.” Almost as extraordinary is the supply service maintained over the Burma road by young Chinese truck drivers who daily risk their lives as calmly as any soldier. They drive mostly at night, hiding from Japanese "bombers by day under the great camphor trees that line the moun tainous sections of the highway. The danger from slides and washouts is al most as great as that from bombing and machine-gunning planes. Passing from malarial heat to bitter cold high above the clouds, existing on the scantiest and simplest food, a driver must be tough to survive the Burma road. Superhuman Efforts. Another heroic chapter in China's re cent history is the moving and re as sembling of a substantial industry. Ma chinery was transported, for the most part, on barges up the Yangtze River over falls and rapids inland as th€ gov ernment fled before invading Japanese armies. Here again a superhuman effort was required to reassemble industries in remote provinces where machinery was virtually unknown. These reassembled factories are being operated on a co operative basis, a conspicuous example of the extension of democratic controls in wartime in marked contrast to the practice in western nations. How nearly this pick-a-back industry can supply Chiang s army with muni tions no one can say. Certainly it can not produce planes or artillery or tanks. And it is highly doubtful if it can sup ply ammunition for the million or more men Gen. Chiang has in the field. The serious deficiency is gasoline. From the beginning, China has had to depend en tirely on outside sources of supply for this bulky material. With the roads from the sea shut off the problem of gasoline will be the most acute that the Chungking regime must face. Another factor is morale. For three years Chinese leaders have held a gov ernment and an army together. It is true, of course, that because of the low standard of living the Chinese can exist at levels that would mean the extinction of any western people. Nevertheless, the effort to sustain the cause has been of necessity never ceasing. And there have been appeasers among the Chinese, in fluential men who have argued that the thing to do was to make the best pos sible terms with Japan. These voices will be raised more emphatically in view of the present threat. But also there Is the question of Japanese morale. When the war began three years ago the Japanese public was assured by the army that it would be over in three months. As armies equipped with all the costly mechanical weapons of modern warfare have pushed deeper into the vastness of China, the drain on Japan has been more and more obvious. Rising prices, serious inflation scarcely concealed by official juggling of figures, a gold reserve dwindling to noth ing, all this has meant that every man, woman and child in the island empire has suffered. And in this respect the contrast with China is interesting. While from 50 to 60 million Chinese have felt the cruel force of war, the other 350,000,000 have been untouched. A sprawling, loosely knit people, with no strongly centralized government or financial system, the bulk of the Chinese people have gone about thetr business little disturbed by the war. Then there is the problem the Jap anese face in policing this great Asiatic expanse. They have succeeded every where in creating deep and lasting hatreds. Conspicuously poor administra tors, except over slave populations as in Formosa and Manchoukuo, the Jap anese have succeeded chiefly in stirring Chinese patriotism. It has been more and more difficult for the Japs to find Chinese of sufficient importance and docility to head the puppet governments they have sought to establish. The lat est, Wang Ching-wei, is a shadowy fig ure whose regime at Peking is wholly dependent on Japanese machine guns and planes. Guerrillas Harry Japanese. Besides the regular army in the field, there are perhaps a million guerrillas engaged in making the Japanese oc cupation as painful as possible. The day that a Japanese garrison leaves an out post behind, the guerrillas move in. £11 this costs enormously. Another drain on the Japanese economy has been the huge graft taken by Japanese Army of ficers who have come to regard the Chi nese war as their own private and highly profitable monopoly. Finally, there is the part that the United States has played in the Chinese war. Repeatedly from the Government and from private individuals have come expressions of sympathy for the Chinese. The mass of opinion has been strongly opposed to Japan. But this has not meant any very material aid for China. The Roosevelt administration has bought Chinese silver and made two or three comparatively small loans. But at the same time American industrialists were supplying Japan with the sinews of war. American exports to Japan for. 1937, 1938 and 1939 totalled $759,638,000, of which $257,740,000 was in metals, includ ing scrap iron, and $140,214,000 in pe troleum products. From time to time there was active and widespread agitation to embargo the shipment of war materials essential to prosecution of the war. Those in the State Department who took a “realistic” line were convinced that an embargo would bring retaliation from Japan, either directed openly against the United States, perhaps in the Philippines, or aimed at the Dutch East Indies or Indo china. Now it is considered too late to close the door, particularly since the Japanese have accumulated substantial reserves of scrap and other materials. Those in the best position to guess sugr gest that the Japanese war may end not in any single dramatic event, but by the grachial liquidation of hostilities with possibly a final face-saving settlement for Chiang Kai-shek. They do not, how ever, rule out the possibility that Japan may finally overreach herself. For exam ple, if resistance, however feeble, were en countered in Indo-China, more money, more resources would have to go into an enlarged theater of war. And Japan'* economic system is now straining at the seams. • Paraguay and Bolivia Cultural Links Sponsored Under the auspices of the minister of public instruction, the Institute Para guayo-Boliviano was recently established in Asuncion, Paraguay. At the initial meeting a governing board was elected, of which the minister of foreign affairs and the minister of justice, worship and public instruction of Paraguay were named honorary presidents. The primary objectives of the insti tute were set forth as follows: (1) To work for friendship and rapprochement between the two countries; (2) to pro mote the cultural and intellectual union of the two countries; (3) to encourage interchange of university students and professors; (4) to further a knowledge of Bolivian letters in Paraguay and Para guayan letters in Bolivia, and (5) to maintain a close contact between Para guayan and Bolivian universities. f 'l a 4 Stimson’s Prophecy Fulfilled, U. S. Now Arms to the Teeth World Might Have Been Spared Present Wars Had the Geneva 1932 Conference Heeded Advice to ‘Stop Japan’ By Constantine Brown. Eight years ago last April, Henry L. Stimson, then Secretary of State in Hoover’s cabinet, went to Geneva, offi cially to help the moribund limitation of arms conference. In fact, Mr. stimson had little hope that arms could be limited. He got up from a sick bed to make the last plea to the British and the French not to belittle the issue of Japan’s invasion of China. Had they listened to Mr. Stimson's arguments, Europe might not have suffered its present hardships and the United States might not have found it necessary to become an armed camp. An armed camp this country is going to be before the summer is over. Ramsay MacDonald, then Premier of Britain, and Andre Tardieu, Premier of France, received Mr. Stimson with de monstrative politeness. Mr. Stimson had learned by that time to read between the lines of diplomatic effusion. “Gentlemen,” he pleaded, “it is not the piffling economic interests of certain American citizens and institutions which worry me. I would not turn a hair on their account. But I want you to look into the future and realize that if one nation is permitted to break solemn en gagements and pacts with impunity, in less than a decade you will have all the other nations taking the law into their own hands, and a period of interna tional brigandage will follow. Think of the Germans and Italians in relation to Europe and Africa before you dismiss the Asiatic problem so lightly.” Tardieu Wag Silent. But M. Tardieu, who had developed a diplomatic laryngitis, could not talk, and Ramsay MacDonald was too con vinced of "peace in our time,” which had brought and kept the labor party in power, to be induced to side with Mr. Stimson actively. Furthermore. Mr. MacDonald was never a strong*Premier. On major issues the first labor leader to be Britain's Prime Minister was unwittingly a tool in the hands of the city. Mr. Stimson’s* warning that they might soon see Indo china and India endangered was re ceived with a skeptical smile by the leaders of the foremost "democracies,” as were later reports of the efficiency of the German military machine. Today the French Empire has dis appeared. The military earthquake which shook France for 15 days engulfed an empire over 100 years in the making. The British Empire may continue to exist in the Western Hemisphere, but England, unless some miracle can hap pen, may go under. Her powerful navy might be able to put up a hectic fight; her newly organized aviation might bring down enemy planes at the rate of three or even four to one. But she cannot withstand a concerted onslaught of the totalitarians in Europe, in the almost unanimous opinion of well informed experts in Washington who heretofore have been uncannily correct in their estimates of the situation in Europe. Air Fleet Is Outnumbered. The German-Italian air force outnum bers the British by at least four to one. To the hundred or more divisions which Britain may have today in the Isles the totalitarians oppose no less than 300. Some 250 submarines which form the Italian-German underseas fleet can wreak havoc with the British home fleet. The Italian-German line fleet cannot be disregarded either, now that the British Navy is without effective French support. The units which the French have not sur rendered and which are still with the British fleet are reported to be in bad shape. The morale of the men Is shot to pieces, and the maximum that can be expected from them is patrol or con voy duty—provided they are accom panied by British men-of-war. Under these conditions it would take a nation of supermen to combat suc cessfully the attack which Hitler and Mussolini have planned for the month of July. The French Channel ports and the Jersey and Guernsey Islands are of paramount importance for the operations to be conducted by the Reich against the British homeland. World Picture Changed. Washington is looking at the situation realistically now. The whole world pic ture has changed radically in less than three months. When the war broke out in September the world was still con trolled by seven major powers: Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the U. S. S. R„ Japan and the United States. One of these has now been eliminated. Another, Great Britain, is by way of fol lowing the fate of her former ally. Italy is a power in relation to Germany only. Any attempt on the part of Musso lini to follow an independent policy would be punished immediately by Ber lin. Russia is a world force only because of her nuisance value and her immensity. Thus today shows only three major powers: Germany, Japan and the United States. While there is a strong link—perhaps temporary because their long-range in terests are far from identical—between Germany and Japan, there is an im mense difference between our country and the two other world powers. The United States today is a thorn in the flesh of the totalltarians. It is determined to stick to the democratic formula of government and to the ngw old-fash ioned theories of international trade and relationships. The natural riches and the gold we have in this country are not coveted by Germany or Japan. But so long as this country remains what it is—the unswerv ing enemy of governments based on sup pressions of Individual freedom and con quests by military power—there is but scant possibility of an agreement be tween the three remaining world-powers. Faces Potential Danger. Any quixotic idea of sending active military help to the fighting European democracies has. by necessity, been abandoned in Washington, for the good reason that they cannot be helped now. But because this country is facing a potential danger on two fronts, the re armament program will be hastened no matter what platforms for peace may be adopted by the Republican and Dem ocratic candidates. The opinion of the specialists who be long to neither political party is that America must henceforth arm to the teeth; that every cent which can be squeezed out of the taxpayers or bor rowed from the same source must be spent on armament. And—what is still more worrisome—a clash with the powers in the East and in the West must in evitably follow. A surrender, of course, is possible. By surrender is meant the acceptance of proposals from Berlin and Tokio eventu ally restricting our sphere of economic activities and the dovetailing of our policies with those of the totalitarians. Every piece of reliable information that reaches Washington from Tokio and ; Berlin has the same leitmotif: The arrogance of the United States must be curbed. Her influence in world affairs must be restricted unless she accepts the totalitarian political philosophy. This is the reason why impartial ob servers in Washington predict that the United States will before long become one huge arsenal supplemented by im mense armed camps. Fairbanks Expects Boom From New Army Air Base With plans under way to begin work on a United States Army air base near Fairbanks. Alaska, a new kind of boom is in prospect for this former gold-mining camp of Uncle Sam's Far i Northwest, says the National Geo graphic Society. “ 'The Golden Heart of Alaska.’ Fair banks is set almost exactly in the geo graphic center of the Territory. Al ready it is reached by railway, motor road and air service!! the society states. "More than 30 planes come and go at the local airport of this little towm, whose population is estimated to be little more than 4.000. One of the more dramatic activities of the pilots is to deliver by parachute supplies of bread, bacon and beans, mail and medicines to gold miners working in the vicinity. "Fairbanks was bom of gold fever in 1902, when an old prospector named Pedro struck it rich along the creek ; which now bears his name. Today Fairbanks is still a growing town, no longer entirely dependent on its major industry of gold mining. As the me tropolis for a vast hinterland it is an important trading center, as well as headquarters for a rising lumber busi ness, and something of a mecca for summer tourists. Telephones, Tele graph, electricity and radio, together with a hospital, chamber of commerce, schools, churches and clubs, indicate an active civic life that belies its size. It is expected that the new Army air base will add some 2,500 people to the city's census figures and make air minded Fairbanks a center for nearly 2,000 more planes." Ixs&l Mad* in Japan. • 1