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AFTER VICTORY: Will Key Bases Assure U. S. Lasting Peace ? The first problem facing the United States at the Peace Table will be how best to avoid a recurrence of War. Any Plan that avoids settlement of this issue obviously can result in only a temporary truce. • Newsweek believes that a discussion of this problem now is of tremendous interest and importance to every American. Therefore, the "Postwar Horizons" section in the current News week explores fully one of the most vital phases of the Peace Problem—the securing of key military, naval, and air bases throughout the world. The facts presented in this story have been gathered and assembled by News* week's corps of seasoned observers and writers, all of whom have direct access to vital sources of information. This story is presented here as a public service to all thinking Americans concerned with tomorrow's world. AFTER we have won this war, /% we jhave to keep it won. Armed bases must be established to hold down the ag gressors who precipitated the conflict and to check the over ambitious powers who would try to start another one. As things now stand, the United States would end the war with only an inner line of defensive works in the Atlantic Ocean no nearer Europe and Africa than the West Indies, and in the Pacific Ocean with only a patrol route from Pearl Harbor to Australia, plus what it could take from Japan. • Without further steps, this coun try will not have any direct or participating rights in lands within striking distance of Germany or Japan. It will not have legal rights in those other distant regions where open commerce and transit will be essential to our postwar security in the shrunken world. It is not likely that any postwar base agreements will involve, in the long run, the quartering of American troops at bases beyond the Atlantic and the Pacific. Rather, discussion in responsible circles tends toward study of an organization in which any country detecting threats in its “watch zone” could call for and get help as soon as the threat was veri fied by some form of United Nations general staff. But regardless of the form of organization the peace The April 12th Newsweek contains many other significant features of importance to thinking Americans. If you have your copy of News week, you will be interested in: Why Rommel's Army Can Escape Tunisia. How the Draft of Fathers will Operate. How the Quakers are Helping North African Needy. 1 Why Industry May Face An Aluminum Shortage. What Correspondents in Tunisia Are Up Against. Why Farmers Are Optimistic About Food Production. How War Has Changed The British Empire. How The Nazi Intelligence Bureau Has Been Crippled. •.. plus the News and Significance of the week's events the world over. watch takes, it must be backed by bases — bases located and stocked with modern weapons keyed to the uses and requirements of air power. THE PAST: For 120 years the United States laid plans that might be termed quartersphere defense. We were pledged under the Monroe Doctrine to defend Latin America from outside aggression, but there was no evident plan to carry out this task if the doctrine were seri ously challenged. In our prewar setup, Cavite, near Manila, and Guantanamo, Cuba, were little more than refueling de pots and minor repair ports for the Fleet. Dutch Harbor, Alaska, was an important Navy patrol headquar ters backed by air forces at Kodiak, Alaska. Now Kodiak and Dutch Har bor supply an air-attack base in the Western Aleutians from which we hammer the Japanese on Kiska. The prewar Pacific base program hinged on Pearl Harbor as the cen ter of a line running south from Dutch Harbor and Kodiak to the Hawaiians and east to the Panama Canal. Pearl Harbor was connected ■-»- -—_ . * _ with the Philippines by air via Mid way and Wake Islands, leading to Guam and the Philippines. We had developed Samoa as a refueling stop but as little else. The same was true of many other small islands south west of Hawaii. In the Atlantic, prior to 1940, the United States had no real base out side of the continental United States. Norfolk was the center of Atlantic naval operations, with other large yards at Boston and New York. The Army maintained at Mitchel Field, L. I., its principal air establishment, while Langley Field, near Norfolk, was the Navy’s primary airfield on the Atlantic Coast. We had a refueling base at Guan tanamo, but little else. The Canal Zone itself was stud ded with weapons, including gun emplacements and airfields hacked out of jungles, but this work was exclusively defensive —useful only when an attacker came within range of the fighter planes and guns in the Canal Zone. As a first expansion step in 1940, President Roosevelt obtained rights to establish bases in the West Indies, on 99-year lease from Britain, in exchange for 50 over-age destroy ers. Trinidad, seat of the Caribbean Defense Command, has been devel oped. Other outposts are at Ber muda, Nassau, Jamaica, Antigua, St. Lucia, and British Guiana. At the same time we obtained base rights in Newfoundland and permission from the Dutch to protect oil refin eries on Curacao. By reciprocal arrangements we obtained in Brazil the right to de velop military air-transit rights on the “bulge” near Natal, and permis sion to put ground forces in Dutch Guiana to protect valuable mines. This gave the United States, for the duration of hostilities, a relatively solid line of air- and sea-base facili ties extending from Iceland and Greenland to Brazil. By courtesy as war participants, our Army, Navy, and Air Force are using bases, some of which we have built ourselves, in the British Isles and Africa. But with the exception of leased rights in New- . foundland, Bermuda, and the West Indies, we have no postwar base rights, any more than we have the right to use in peace time the far-flung commercial air ports discussed in this department in the past THE FUTURE: What is the outline of base requirements to protect the United States? Pacific: We shall no longer, in the postwar world, let security de pend on a tenuous line westward across the Pacific which ends at the Philippines. Such a defense is con sidered no defense at all and it would leave us impotent, as it did before, to be of assistance to China or to watch Japan. The rough plans in outline indi cate a chain of strong bases, with air and ground forces and sea patrol, from Pearl Harbor to the southern doorstep of Japan. With Midway and Wake Islands as stepping stones, Guam will be turned into a fortress, as the Navy has desired for many years. Palau Island will become the intermediate stop be tween Guam and the Philippines, where our treaty rights with that island country permit full develop ment of facilities. Linking the Philippines and Jap an, there could be a series of works ranging through the Island of For mosa and the Ryukyu Archipelago right into Nagasaki, an excellent spot in Japan from which to assure control over that country. The North Pacific will find us far stronger than ever before, probably with Kiska developed as a way sta tion on the road to Kamchatka, Russian territory and, we assume, friendly territory. For the future, as far as one can see, the Russian forces at Vladivostok will face Japan from the west. The Pacific shore of Asia also will find strong United Nations forces at the key points of Singa pore and Hong Kong. With Japan thus insulated, it will be a matter of future estimate as to the forces required to assure the security of the Netherlands Indies, a security formerly based on the false premise that Britain's great naval establishment at Singapore could do this trick in conjunction with American naval forces in the Pacific. Atlantic: Our Atlantic patrols will involve close cooperation with Brit ain, although we shall be able and probably will desire to exercise a larger hand in that ocean than prior to 1939. The importance of air commerce gives the United States a vital interest in protection and maintenance alike of the northern route to Europe via Newfoundland, Greenland, and Iceland, and in the southern route through Trinidad, Brazil and on to Africa. This plan raises no concern re garding the northern routes which terminate in Great Britain, but does meet with strong impact on the question of Africa. It creates the question whether we should not seek American air and naval facili ties in the vicinity of Dakar, Gam bia, or Freetown, or at least estab lish facilities in Liberia. Here is a terminus that tests the Mahan theory. Europe: The immediate postwar problem of policing Germany, Italy, and Japan, and their satellite coun tries will be carried out by theforces which conquer them and by the commanders of those forces, it is anticipated, but beyond that emer gency period there is the problem of the long watch to see that the trouble makers keep the peace. The European policing operation involves large calculations in air and ground forces plus probably heavy supply requirements to be shipped by surface vessels from the United States until Europe again has rehabilitated its food supplies. To sea control of the Mediter ranean, which will continue to be exercised by the bases at'Gibraltar, Malta, and Alexandria, has been added the element of air security. The logical center for a concentra tion of bomber and fighting airplanes —perhaps for troops to be flown by glider to any troubled spot in South ern Europe — is Tunisia, which at Bizerte sticks like a fist up into the Western Mediterranean. Military students see the further need for air bases probably at Crete and, if an arrangement could be made with Turkey, near Ankara. Britain will stand as guardian over Western Europe, but the sea route around the North Cape to Russia opens the need for another air base in Norway, possibly at Trondheim, to act as guardian of the northern route for all nations. To the eastward, by the south route around Asia, there already exist strong sea and air bases at Aden, at the southern gateway of the Red Sea, on Ceylon and at Sin gapore, where the British sphere begins to meet the American pro tective sector in the South Pacific. -SIGNIFICANCE The political organization of the world after victory will largely de termine, in the long run, the size and distribution of the armed forces of the victors. Smaller forces and fewer bases will be needed to keep Germany and Japan disarmed than to disarm them in the first instance. Smaller forces and few bases will be needed if the great powers among the victors find that they can work together than if they feel that they must maintain arms for eventual use against each other. The American and British Gov ernments are exploring their way toward a worldwide system of secur ity based upon collaboration among, first, “the big four” and, then, all the United Nations. Attainment of this further goal might be hindered, the State Department feels, by pre mature crystallization of national or regional plans for postwar security. There are several ways in which we could obtain the bases most essential to our primary security. Many of them, especially in the Pacific, will have to be recovered by force. Our long-term rights to their use could be established by annexation or mandate, by purchase or lease, or by arrangements for the use of bases in which ownership is retained by other friendly powers. The first method, annexation or mandate, presumably will be ap plied to some of the Pacific islands held by Japan before the war. But in our arrangements with our Allies, other methods will be used. We leased bases in the British Western Atlantic is lands, but such lease ar rangements are not an ticipated on the sover eign territory of Ameri can nations and whether they will be made elsewhere is a question which has been left in abeyance until the war is over. The third method — access to bases owned by friendly nations— i is the one on which we are relying j most heavily during the war. Some J of these are outposts built or ex- < panded with our money. We have i them, on a reciprocal basis, with Brazil and Iceland, and by friendly 1 arrangement with various smaller Latin American countries, such as I Guatemala. For practical purposes, our bases and those of Great Brit ain and most of her dominions are pooled. This is one evidence of the firmest and most far-flung collabo ration ever achieved by two major military allies. The main trend of thought in our government is toward extending this wartime practice of pooling in to the postwar world and amplify ing it to embrace the other United Nations. This would not mean that the British Fleet would base on Nor folk or San Diego or Hawaii, any more than that the United States Fleet would normally base on Scapa Flow. It would mean, however, the mutualizing of key bases essential to world policing such as Singapore and Gibraltar and D^Jcar or Free town. The same test of mutual need and mutual value could be applied to various military air bases, such as those we will need in French North Africa for the protection of the Western Hemisphere, as well as to those needed for close control of the defeated aggressors and the po licing of the world generally. After their recent experiences, many of the relatively weak nations are likely to feel more secure if they grant base rights to major friendly powers. Likewise, the great powers can be expected to mutualize bases to the extent that they trust each other. If the determination to col laborate in preserving the peace permeates the victors, and espe cially the “big four,” the legal and technical arrangements for the com mon use of various bases will be solved easily. If this determination is missing, the negotiations may sow the seeds of the next war. The arrangements made for the use of bases will be the surest test of the character of the peace. Periscope Preview From Newsweek's World ivide Listening Posts Capital Straws General Eisenhower's reports to Washington indicate that he's mare optimistic about the Tunisian situ ation than the commentators who predict a 60- to 90-day campaign . . . Washington has credible evi dence from refugees that at least 40% of the Red Cross food reaching Greece falls into the hands of the occupying forces .. . There’s a good chance that General Emmons in Hawaii will be given command of the Aleutians area; Admiral Nimitz at Hawaii already has charge of naval operations there. Political Straws As crack a political expert as Jim Farley poohpoohs predictions of a postwar milkary party; he believes that returning veterans will fall into the old party lines . . . The flurry among state legislatures to adopt anti-third-term resolutions is purely a political teapot tempest and won’t get anywhere. National Notes Don't be fooled by the apparent inactivity of the Dies committee; it’s busily investigating government employes, particularly those work ing for the OWI... The Agriculture Department won’t have the head aches of some other agencies in complying with the Budget Bu reau’s order to cut payrolls 5%; it can transfer many of the 4,000 em ployes that otherwise would have to be dropped to Chester Davis's new setup . . . Incidentally, Wash ington sources say one reason for the selection of Chester Davis as food czar may have been that his estimates of last year's food produc tion were more accurate than those of other government experts. Trends Abroad A stalemate on the Russian front because of rain and mud now seems likely until mid-May, although the Red Army may be able to take Smolensk . . . Chinese officials urge changing the name of the Japan Sea to Pacific Sea, claiming it would have an important psychological effect on Japan ... The pro-Ally trend in the Swedish Government is growing although Foreign Minister Gunther is expected to continue to follow an opportunist line. Russo-Jap Status It's clear that the once dangerous tension between Russia and Jdpan has now died down, at least tempo rarily. The revelation that Lend Lease shipments are reaching Rus sia via the Pacific is one straw in the wind. The publication in Mos cow of ex-Ambassador Troyanov sky’s book on why the U. S. lights Germany is another. Benes Hopes Word from London is that Czech President Benes, after weeks of heeding “delay” recommendations from his Washington representa tives, is now determined to visit the U. S. in the immediate future. With postwar talks definitely under way, he believes Czech claims should be placed before F.D.R. now. (The above are only a few of the many Periscope views and forecasts appearing in the current Newsweek.) During recent months, more and more thinking Americans have been turning to Newsweek for an authoritative view of today's world . . . and tomorrow's. For its unique editorial content gives the future Significance of events . . . gives, in Periscope, forecasts of things to come . . . gives the signed opinions of Ernest Lindley, Raymond Moley, Ralph Robey, Admiral Pratt, and General Fuqua. But wartime curtailment of paper leaves us unable to meet the increasing demand for Newsweek. So we are taking this method of making available im portant aspects of our editorial service for those who cannot get copies. This page can present only a limited view of our many editorial services. So if you cannot buy a copy of Newsweek, borrow one, and if you have your copy, please share it. Newsweek A WELL INFORMED PUBLIC IS AMERICA’S GREATEST SECURITY