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1952 Might Be Year of Big War Time to Strike Is Now From the Military Viewpoint of Reds; Russia Could Miscalculate Patience of American People The year 1952 may be the year of the big war. A month ago such a contin gency would not have been re garded as plausible, largely be cause of a deep-seated belief that Russia was not strong enough to attack. Today it has become plausi ble for an entirely different rea son—the prospect that a situa tion can develop in which Rus sia. really not desirous of war, miscalculates American patience and brings on a dilemma that cannot be settled without war. For in just a few weeks the whole face of things interna tionally has changed. The de mand for a big ransom for the release of American flyers lost in Hungary was no casual or minor outburst but unquestion ably the result of a carefully ! REDWOOD SIDING I Quality 10”, 8" and 6”. ! 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Now the Communist regime has learned that the European American alliance is still a loose affair, that no expression of resentment came from any European government allied with America and that the United States herself paid the ransom and thereupon engaged in a mild form of protest—the closing of a couple of consulates and the decision to do some blowing off of steam in the U. N.' Assembly. None of this spells firmness to Moscow. The challenge which the Communists made in Korea in June, 1950, was really their first effort to test America’s resist ance. The United States reacted firmly for a while, but the rest of the Allies subsequently weak ened and finally a peace-at any-price policy has prevailed in Korea. Looked at from a military viewpoint, as appraised in Mos cow, 1952 is the year to strike. The American forces are bogged down in the Far East and the Communists are getting ready to involve more British and French forces in Indo-China and Malaya. More British troops will be required to keep the peace in Egypt, and there are possibilities of other out breaks in the vicinity of Iran. All in all, the Allied forces are spread thin and the North Atlantic treaty organization has hardly got going. Stalin, taking a leaf out of the Hitler book, knows now he can press his ad vantages without much risk. The Nazi leader tested things out with a march into the Rhineland in November 1936 and met no resistance. He then moved on to Austria and Czechoslovakia and was ap peased at Munich in 1938. One year later the attack on Poland —which Hitler mistakenly be lieved would find Britain and France neutral or indifferent— led to large-scale war. Today Stalin may reason that President Truman and Secre tary Acheson do not dare to risk a war because they really have no allies in Europe who want to put up a fight at this time. Stalin is less concerned about American rearmament than he is about the possible growth of a German army or a continental army which would use the weapons being forged for them in America. His time to strike is before such a continental force can be mobilized, rather than afterward. The logic from the standpoint of military and diplomatic strategy points to some involve ment in central Europe, prob ably with Yugoslavia, which will again test the firmness of the allies. While there is lots of talk about what the U. N. would do in such circumstances or what the North Atlantic treaty organization may do in the event of aggression, it so hap pens that England is economi cally in bad shape and Prance has hardly recovered to a major power position. Europe has no will to fight today. The year 1952 is an election year in America. Neither party wants to sanction a war of pre vention and evidently neither party is going to allow any in cident such as the Hungarian ransom to become the basis for a demand for drastic action that could lead to war. Not a single word, for example, has come from Senator Taft de manding firm action against Hungary now that the flyers have been released. The ad ministration, moreover, is under Fire Insurance Rapidly increasing costs make a re-examination of all lines of insurance imperative. Call us for ap praisals and re-examination of your present line. H. G. Smithy Company 811 18th St. N.W. ST. 3300 Mortgage Representative—Travelers Insurance Co. PROPERTY MANAGEMENT—SALES—LOANS—INSURANCE Three Stores OPEN THURSDAY Until at nite 9 Downtown: 1319 F Street Northeast: 3942 Minnesota Are. Arlington, Va.: 3030 Fairfax Drive Clearance Famous-make Suits ... Topcoats ... Sport Coats for men and young men. -itYocMi Men’s Shot no pressure from the Republi can party to alter its peace-at any price policy in Korea. The U. N. strategy there is to re cover its prisoners from the Reds and call it quits. It is logical after a Korean armistice for the Reds to start trouble in and around Formosa. An air bombardment from the Chinese mainland and attempts at invasion of the island would certainly embarrass both the U. N. and the United States. For, although the U. S. Navy is pro tecting Formosa, neither the U. N. nor the European allies have endorsed the American at titude toward defending the remnants of the Nationalist re gime there. Russian submarines flying the Chinese flag undoubt edly will be used if the U. S. Navy interferes with a Red in vasion of Formosa. It seems natural for the Com munists to exploit that area as the next basis for trouble. The Communist leaders in Moscow may make the same mistake that Hitler did — they may believe the United States is hamstrung by her allies and is herself unwilling to meet the big challenge. Then war could come because there would be no other honorable way out. Thus the chances of America being dragged into war to re sist aggression are increasingly dangerous for 1952. The war would in all probability not start with any aggression by Russia but by an aggression on the part of one of the smaller states which the United States and her allies would really be compelled to resist. Then the fat would be in the fire. The answer to all this is to let Russia know that the ran som paid Hungary for the American flyers did not mean frustration or timidity or ac quiescence, and that the next Communist move will actually be resisted. That’s probably the only way now to prevent Amer ica from being dragged into a large-scale war. (Reproduction right* reserved.) LOUIE —By Harry Honan DOIT NOW Fletcher Knebel: Potomac Fever Leap year begins. This is the year that has an extra day in memory of the bachelors'who taught the girls there was no such word as “no.” * * * * t Senator Taft’s presidential managers report that he's winning most of the polls. Taft is admired for his intellect. He exhibits the Senate’s best brand of logic in reaching a dilemma. * * * * A Kefauver-for-President club is started in the Nation’s Capital. Senator Kefauver works miracles. No other Senator could spend a year trapping mink and come back with a coonskin cap on his head. Chairman Cannon of the House Appropriations Committee pre dicts a cut in military spending The world is safer in ’52—the Reds haven’t kidnaped a single American this year. * * * * / Gen. Eisenhower’s backers hint once more that Ike will run. They’re determined to yank Ike back to this country if they have to do it on a manslaughter charge—hint-and-run. * * * * Old North Church in Boston refuses Senator Langer’s plea to hang two lanterns in the belfry to warn of Churchill’s approach. Langer would have duplicated Paul Revere’s ride himself, except that nowadays there are easier ways than riding a horse at mid night to get your name in the papers. * * * * Premier Stalin sends New Year’s “sympathy” to Japan for the foreign troops on her soil. Sympathy notes from Stalin are different—they’re gentle reminders that there still haven’t been enough deaths in the family. Thomas L. Stokes:' Will It Help to Make More Guns? Morbid and Desperate Psychology of World Illustrated By Public's Reaction to New Scientific Discoveries Tne morbid and desperate psychology that dominates us and all the world today—as we begin a new year — becomes grimly clear in a reaction from two items in our newspapers at year’s end which, in them selves, should nourish enthu siasm and hope. Perhaps, in the press of other affairs, you missed them. One told how, in a modest brick and concrete building on the Snake River near Arco, Idaho, a Ifendful of persons saw the first successful use of atomic energy to produce electricity which was transmitted to op erate various facilities in the building. There is the story of a miracle offering boundless blessings for the future—or so it once would have been. The other news item told of another miracle—a new syn thetic chemical devised by the Montsanto Chemical Co. which can do, in a few hours, what our tillers of the soil—including us amateur gardeners — take montns ana sometimes years doing to improve our fields and gardens with fertilizers and humus and peat moss. This new chemical, which in effect opens up the pores of the dirt so it can take in more freely oxygen, water and nutrition, was an nounced at the American Asso ciation for the Advancement of Science convention in Phila delphia. So far, so good, for the ad vancement of the human race I But that is not the whole story so far as regards our mental state today. It is the function of our en terprising fraternity to get the whole story, meaning newspa pers. In the pursuit of that we ask the questions that would get at what everybody wants to know, and thus we reflect the curiosity, the hopes and the fears of all of us. What is the natural question all of us would ask today about this new application of atomic energy? Right you were the first time. In short—will it help in the production of military weapons? So, naturally, that question was asked. And, sure enough, there came an answer from a “spokesman” of the Atomic En ergy Commission laboratory at Chicago which supervised the Idaho project—what is called a “follow” in newspaper parlance. Yes, he said when asked, it would help in expansion of our weapons program. That’s enough, sir. That satis fies. That’s the way we think these days. And, as for the new chemical, scientists at the Philadelphia meeting also got inquiries re lated to the menace in the world today, international com munism, against which we must protect ourselves, and wherefore we are so concentrated on guns. Yes, they replied, this chemical will assist in the fight against communism, perhaps even more than the atomic bomb, because it will help make fertile and productive now arid lands in undeveloped areas, so that peo ple there can get food enough out of their own earth and be healthy and content instead of desperate, hungry and ill which is what makes people easy prey to Communist blandishments. That also is an objective of our so-called Point Pour Pro gram, the agricultural aims of which obviously could be greatly expanded with this new chemi cal. But this enlightened and also very practical concept gets so little encouragement today, and very little emphasis, because our minds are attuned to guns, which are so much more costly and get obsolete so quickly and make nothing grow. This gun psychology will be manifest, of course, in the coming Congress session, where more billions will be voted for military weap ons of all kinds, and a com parative pittance for our Point Pour type of aid. In what happened in that building in Idaho, in the an nouncement from Philadelphia —gone now is the wonder—the wonder still remembered when electric lights replaced gas jets and mantles in the boyhood home, the first telephone at tached to the wall on the stair way landing, the first airplane. The successive dazzling miracles of science are only routine to day to the younger generation and the older generation has forgotten and all, in one voice, only ask: “Will it help to make mors guns?” io point, a moral is superflu ous. We are able without prompting to just take a look at where we all are in the second year of the second half of the 20th century when it is, whether we like it or not, neces sary to concentrate on guns, though no answer really is there. A new tyranny and a new bar barism are loose in the world, as we have just seen in the luna tic seizure and imprisonment of four of our young men, aviators, in Hungary, and we value our freedom and liberty above all else. 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