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Vital Economic Force: Automation Is Here to Stay; Will It Prove a Blessing or a Curse? BY WILLIAM HINES^ At last count some 63 million Americans were busy at occupations ranging from abalone fishing to zymurgy. Are they—or any substantial percentage of them—in danger of being turned out on the street by a specter now looming large on the industrial horizon? That is one of the big questions of the day—a question that may cause pickets to march outside the gates of automobile factories before spring is over. The name of the specter Is “automation”—a word which is not yet even in the dictionary, but shortly will be. Depending on the point of view; automation is the promise of a brighter tomorrow, when every man will have more things to enjoy and more time to enjoy them in; or it is a clear and present danger to the livelihood of millions of working men. Who is right? The impression of this reporter just back from the automated Mid west—is. that automation is more likely to bring prosperity than de pression. but that in the industrial evolution now going on, some in dividuals inevitably are going to get hurt. Evolution, Not Revolution Note that the phr&se in the last paragraph was “industrial evolu tion," not “industrial revolution.” Automation is not something that has happened overnight. You can trace it back to Henry Ford’s first assembly line early in this century. You can trace it even further to Oliver Evans’ continuous-process flour mill in Philadelphia 171 years ago. By stretching the imagination, you can probably go back to even more remote times. But the point is made; automation not only is here —and here to ’stay—it’s been here, to some degree, for many years. From the standpoint of practical economics, as Peter F. Drucker points out in the March issue of Harper's, automation is not only desirable, but absolutely essential if we are to maintain our living standards in the future. For the next decade or so, the labor force will be small compared to total population. The needs of an in creasing number of persons will have to be served by a relatively stable number of producers. Without pushing automation beyond its present stage, some economists be lieve, that cannot be done. What's Automation? There are almost as many defini tions of automation as there are people thinking about the subject. A box elsewhere on this page, headed with a photo-engraved reproduc tion of the word as it will appear in forthcoming dictionaries, gives some of the leading definitions. But since “automation” pro nounced to rhyme with “corpora tion”—is enough of a word that the lexicographers are ready to admit it to the English language, let s use what will be the standard definition as a starting point. A. M. Driscoll of the G. & C. Merriam Co. of Springfield. Mass., which publishes the standard Web ster’s says, “The following defini tions, based on evidence so far gathered, is tentative, not neces sarily as it will appear in our dictionaries.” Anyway, here it is: Automation, noun. 1. The act or tech nique of having a manufacturing process fully automatic. By this technique, ports are moved into and out of machines without being handled by human operators. 2. The state of being automatic. 3. Automatic operation, as of a machine. This is the kind of automation most people on both sides of the labor-management bargaining table are thinking about. There are more elaborate types in being. Visionaries —and even practical men in some industries—are considering “self programming, self-correcting, self inspecting” gadgets that will make humans not only unnecessary, but unwanted. (In this connection, one in dustry has had this extreme forced on it by the frailty of man. Much atomic energy work is handled automatically, simply because the product is too hot for humans. 1 The immediate battleground, where automation is a fighting word, is the automobile industry. United Auto Workers (and CIO) President Walter P. Reuther has made it clear he is out this year for a guaranteed annual wage. He cites the rise of automation as one of the chief rea sons for his union’s demand. For public consumption at least, the auto workers are scared of automation. Automation in Action For a close look at automation in action, this reporter went to Rock ford, 111., where an Army ordnance plant has long been rated—or per haps overrated—as one of the best examples of an automated factory. It cost between $7 and $8 million in World War 11. To duplicate it would cost about S2O million today. The reporter found the plant to be, for all practical purposes, obso lete. J. H. Pratt, production expert for the Chicago Ordnance District, said flatly that similar automatic production lines for artillery ammu nition would never be built in the future. Charles Hohn, plant man ager for the operating contractors, U. S. Industries, agreed. The reason is simple. Since the automatic 155-mm. howitzer shell line w’as first opened for production in January, 1952, a new and better way of producing shells has been de vised. Ironically, the new process is largely nonautomatic; at any rate, it is considered nonautomated. The automatic line is, essentially, two machines: One covering the whole process of forging, the other the whole process of machining. Ignoring one handling operation between them, this can be said of the line; Six-and-a-half-inch round cornered steel, in bars 16 feet long, goes in one end; completed 155-mm. shells come out the *ther end. Men control and supervise—rather than perform—the score or more of operations in between. How does the automated shell line compare with standard lines using the same process and operating at the same rate? • The quality of the automated product is excellent; perhaps better when machines, and not men, are the Judges of work done. • The operating cost la “average,” 4 but if the contractor had to figure • in depreciation of Govemment * owned equipment on each, the auto j mated line's production cost'would | be higher than the standard line's. J • First cost is greater for the ' automated line. • Maintenance costs are far higher, and the problem of spare parts for this unique machinery is a constant headache. i From a cost point of view, this automation is a flop. [ What about personnel? This is perhaps the most amaz ing thing about the Rockford plant —and to some extent about auto mated factories in general. At Rockford, it takes about 160 people to operate the automated line. In the opinion of Mr. Hohn and Mr. Pratt, it would take 160 people—the same force—to get the same output off a standard line. But there is a difference. The skills required by operators and maintenance men on the automated line are much higher than would be needed by men working on non automated equipment. More Maintenance This is a story one hears wherever one goes: More and more mainte nance—especially preventive main tenance—is needed; better and bet ter men are required for the main tenance crew. Where once a man with an oil can and another with a wrench did the fixing, now the machines are cared for by elec tricians of practically engineering competence, by hydraulic mechan ics who almost need a college degree. » The Rockford plant is not typical of automated operations, however. If it were, Mr. Reuther would have little to fear. Much of the blame for the Rockford experience falls at the door of the Army, which started and stopped the operation for nearly 10 years before the first shell rolled off the Rockford line. The starts were feverish—allowing no time for development of a process admittedly experimental. The stops were abrupt and complete—allowing not even an adequate amount of money for standby maintenance. Industry's Experience This has not been the case in private industry, where a dollar has a meaning sometimes forgotten by the phasers-in and phasers-out in Washington. Automation—success ful. economical automation —today is the watchword of many Indus-, tries, some of which could not exist without fully automatic equipment. The postwar chemical and plas tics industries have, for all prac tical purposes, been built around automation. The petroleum indus try also is highly automated. But these are “continuous proc ess” industries, where raw materials are poured in at one end and a refined product flows out the other. Automation became a significant economic force when it invaded the “discrete products" field, where sep arate parts are fed into a machine, processed, assembled and delivered as finished widgets. That is auto mation today, whether the widget is an 8-ounce gear case for a re frigerator, a 10-cent toy pistol or a heavy, complex and costly auto mobile engine. Automation-produced items, how ever, have one thing in common: They are produced in great quan tity and at fairly constant rates. A Week From Tuesday Will Tell the Story on Salk Polio Vaccine BY ALTON L. BLAKESLEE Associated Press Science Reporter V day in the fight against polio should come in 10 days. That’s the hopeful guess, at least, of some persons close to the Salk polio vaccine. There's a general air of confidence that the vaccine works. There has been no hint of anything amiss with it. Did it protect children from para lytic polio, and how well? Or was it ineffective? Do we start a huge vaccination program to end polio? Or must vaccine research work go back to the laboratory? Those answers will come out April 12, when results are announced of last summer’s wide tests of the vac cine developed by Dr. Jonas E. Salk of Pittsburgh. If it is good, how much vaccine will there be this year? What are your chances of getting it for your children? What will it cost? Some of these questions can be answered pretty well right now'. There has been no official tip or leak about the verdict on the vac cine. Officials of the National Foun dation for Infantile Paralysis say they don’t know it themselves. But you can interpret some things as signs of confidence: The announcement will be made on the 10th anniversary of the death of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who inspired the National Founda tion. This would be a fitting date for an optimistic report. Secondly, topflight scientists are being invited to the conference at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, where results will be dis closed. Here are some questions answer able now: Q. What results will be an nounced? A. The Salk vaccine was given to 440,000 children. Records have been kept on them. Did they get less— or more—paralytic polio compared with 210,000 children who received harmless dummy shots, and com pared with 1,180,000 youngsters who had no shots at all? Blood test studies of some 40,000 children will be Involved, to learn how much pro tective antibodies were produced by use of the vaccine. Q. Will It be a clear-cut answer? A. Yes, it should be, if enough * " - ” j. , ' ’ « / - - ' rj.mm • , .\. „Ha HBHjj- Hal i ' UwIM-. * jM '<"• Hj 1 Bn!! sJsSSSbNKwih 4 -fll j|Mv. SjKKSBMIy v f 1 V J gt am HEjkvXv HERES AUTOMATION: A line of heavy presses works in close harmony to produce floor pons in a Buffalo factory. The men mostly watch. au-to-ma'tion The word above is not yet in the dictionary. But, say the pub lishers of the big Webster, it will be just as soon as the new edi tions come out. It should be in the language. It is an increasingly important word. What probably will be come the standard definition ap pears in bold-face type in the first column of the accompanying story. Here are other definitions, offered by people who spend much of their time thinking about automation. “Materials handling in a timed relationship with some other ma jor movement.”—K. L. Finken staedt, machine tool designer, Rockford, 111. • • • “The supervision and regula tion of the production process by self-operating mechanical, hy draulic, pneumatic, chemical, electrical or electronic devices.”— United Auto Workers’ Economic and Collective Bargaining Confer ence, Detroit, Mich. 1 If they were not, automation would be too expensive. One Tool or Many? In a loft building on the property of W. F. & John Barnes Co., ma chine-tool designers of Rockford, stands a scale model of one of the most advanced automotive tools in the world. When completed it will automatically turn out cylinder heads for a large automobile manu facturer. The machine will be 300 feet long and will produce heads at the rate of two every minute. The heads will be rough castings when they en ter the machine, and perfectly fin ished engine parts when they emerge. The machine will cost $1 million— and Barnes’ contract calls for the delivery of four, which will stand side by side in a huge building in Detroit later this year. So fast moving is automation that this machine is obsolete already— even before it is finished. Now comes a philosophical ques tion which bothers people who think about automation: Is this one ma chine—cne tool—or many? Dozens of individual machines would be needed to do what the Barnes automated apparatus will do. children—vaccinated and nonvac cmated—were actually exposed to polio last year. The test is whether vaccination prevents development of paralytic polio from natural ex posure, and how well it does this. If there was little polio in the test communities, the answer might be equivocal, difficult to measure sta tistically. Q. Would the vaccine have to be 100 per cent effective? A. No. Probably no vaccine is 100 per cent effective. But the higher the precentage of protection, the better, of course. Q. If it works for children, would it work for adults, too? A. Yes. Q. If the vaccine is found to work, what’s the next step? A. It must be licensed for use by the National Institutes of Health, meeting standards of potency and safety. Q. Will that take long? A. Quick approval is expected. Q. How much vaccine will be available? A. Probably enough to vaccinate 18 million children or more, but there are no definite esimates yet. The Polio Foundation has contracted for enough vaccine for 19 million chil dren. Six pharmaceutical firms are making it. These same films are ex pected to supply, commercially, as much or more for use by private physicians Q. How will the vaccine be dis tributed? A. The Polio Foundation will sup- = POLIO BY hospital / 45 ■II ■ tee ADMISSIONS 11111 l POPULATION ' 35 imlllllhl 1 H i. INPEft | ; j 4 ) t t n |Q n i; n |< |j | t ii |, ~ ► \ “Improved machinery and more productive tools , to do the work that man formerly had to sweat to do.”—R. H. Sullivan, vice president. Ford Motor Co., Dear born, Mich. • • • “A system for the automatic handling of parts between pro gressive production processes.”— D. S. Harder, vice president of Ford Motor Co., credited by some as originator of the word. • * • “Among the engineers who coined it, the word automation is merely a term which conven iently describes certain mechan ical controls and processes.”— Benjamin F. Fairless, chairman. United States Steel Corp., Pitts burgh, Pa. • • • The word also has its verbal form, to automate. It can also be used as an adjective, as auto mated machinery. There is no adverbial form in general use— but eventually there probably will be. In this case, it is many machines. But the “work”—that is, the part being handled—is not moved by hu man power from the time it enters until the time it leaves. *ln that sense, it is a single tool. Less 'Direct Labor' Far fewer persons will be needed to work at this machine. Where perhaps 40 would have been needed on “direct labor” (operating the various stations) on an old line, not more than six or eight direct laborers will be required on this one. K. L. Finkenstaedt, executive vice president of the Barnes company, demonstrated the extent of automa tion on this machine. He pointed to baffles under the various lathe components, and said that when in stalled, the machine will stand over a trough in which a conveyor belt will run. This belt will take metal chips to a central point without the intervention of men. N “There will be no wheelbarrows in this operation,” Mr.. Finkenstaedt said. This is precisely what bothers labor spokesmen. Fewer wheelbar rows, obviously, means fewer men to push them. Fewer men means fewer jobs, and—quite beyond the fact that fewer men also means less ply-free of charge this year only— enough to vaccinate every child in the first and second grades of all public, parochial and private schools in the United States, Hawaii and Alaska, if parents request it. These children were chosen because there is a high incidence of polio at those ages, and vaccination clinics can easily be set up in schools. Free vaccine also will be offered children in other grades who took part in last year’s test and received either no shots at all or just the dummy shots. This supply—paid for by March of Dimes money—will be adminis tered by State and local health • medical societies. After these 9 million vaccinations this year the officers in co-operation with local Polio Foundation will “get out of the vaccine business.” On their own, pharmaceutical firms will sell vaccine to druggists and to doctors for use on private patients. Q. What will this vaccine cost if your doctor gives it? A. The cost will vary. One phar maceutical firm has set a list price of $4.20 for the three shots con stituting one course of vaccination for one person. There could be markups on top of that. Two others say their price will be $5 to $6 per person. Others have not disclosed their prices. The three injections in the arm are given within five weeks, with the second shot coming a week after the first one, the last a month after the second. union dues—fewer jobs means a de pression. As the late Calvin Coolidge once told a flabbergasted Nation, “When a great many people are un able to find work, unemployment results.” New Skills Needed Industry’s answer is that while a wheelbarrow-pusher will not be needed, a maintenance man will be. If the former sweeper can be re tained for a higher skill, they say, he will be. If he lacks the mental capacity, it is conceded, he may well join the ranks of the technologically unemployed. But industry holds that there have been »technological displace ments before, and that the common weal has always been served in the long run. There are few wagon man ufacturers nowadays. Montgomery • Ward’s catalog, a noted barometer of the times, has dropped horse har nesses from, its 1955 edition. But technologically di spla ce d wain wrights and harnessmakers have long since found other careers. Some industry contends have gone over to the opposition and now find themselves worrying lest auto mated machinery dislodge them from the auto assembly line. The Auto Industry The automobile industry, as was mentioned earlier, is the focal point of interest in automation today, chiefly because of Mr. Reuther’s guaranteed annual wage demands. The industry already has gone far in automation, and will go farther. v - .■$ —-Chase, Ltd.. Photo. Walter P. Reuther Automation worries him. w This cost does not include the physician's fee for services in giving the vaccine during the three visits. His fee would be in addition to the $4 to $6 cost of the actual vaccine for one person, plus perhaps mark ups in the distribution. Q. When will vaccine be given? A. Presumably as soon as it is licensed, starting in some places in April if possible. For effectiveness, vaccine should be given before ex posure to polio. Q. Will'there be enough vaccine for ail children or adults this year? A. No, not enough could possibly be produced this year. Vaccinations ' for everyone wanting them, or need ing them, would take at least two years, probably longer. Q. How long will the vaccine pro tect a person? A lifetime? A. Time will answer that. One vaccination might protect for years, or even a lifetime. Or booster shots might be needed at intervals. Q. Is the vaccine safe? A. Yes, for it is made of killed polio virus, and repeatedly tested for safety. There have been no reports of hazards, but some per sons might get reactions, as people do with any drug or vaccine. The April 12 report probably will tels whether some children had reac tions, such as soreness of arm or slight upset. Q. Will the vaccine protect against all types of polio? A. Yes, it is designed to. It con tains all three types of virus which are known to cause paralysis in humans. Q. Who will get the vaccine which is sold to doctors? A. That apparently will oe up to the Individual doctors. Preschool t children might be favored by many doctors, because polio incidence is often highest at age 5. Pregnant women might also get some pref erence, for there is some evidence pregnacy increases susceptibility to polio. Or doctors might follow a first-come, first-served order. Some are preparing waiting lists, as pa tients request vaccine for their children. Q. —If the Salk vaccine Is found Ineffective, what then? A.—Research is already under way with other vaccines. Including some containing living virus, but altered so it cannot cause sickness. Some f 9 THE SUNDAY STAR, Washington, D. C. R SUNDAY, aran. s. less At the forefront of automation in Detroit is the Ford Motor Co., which now virtually has a policy of never using a man when a machine will do. But Ford’s automation has been a creeping process. Its start came more than 45 years ago, when Ford adopted the banjo-type rear axle housing because that form could be made faster than an older type. (A frequent symptom of automation, incidentally, is radical redesign of parts to make them more readily adaptable to automatic production.) The Big Year The first big period of something like automation at Ford came in 1913-14, when these things hap pened: » A radiator assembling machine was installed; a device was made to drill 45 holes in the engine block from four angles in 90 seconds; an endless carrier chain was devised to transport engine block molds through the whole foundry process; a flywheel magneto line was opened, cutting assembly time from 20 min utes to 13; a chassis line was put into operation, reducing work from 728 man-minutes to 93; engine as sembly practices were changed, cut ting time from 10 man-hours to 3 hours 46 minutes. In this same period—on January 1, 1914—Henry Ford proclaimed the then unheard-ol $5 day for workers in his plants. Since then, of course, there have been many improvements—these early ones were not automation as we know it now, but only the rude beginnings. Real, modern auto mation did not get its start until after World War 11. 1923 vs. 1953 And what has happened? R. H. Sullivan, production vice president of Ford, has the answer. In 1923 the Ford Motor Co. pro duced more cars than it did in 1953. (This startling fact was read back to him and verified.) But where 105,000 men did their sketchily automated jobs for Ford in 1923, a generation later 177,000 men were doing a highly automated job to turn out fewer cars. Os course, they are different, and more complex, cars today than they were in 1923. And that is industry's main argument: Automation im proves quality; quality produces de mand; demand produces more jobs; more jobs produce more demand, and so ad infinitum. Mr. Sullivan says: “The motivating forces behind automation are, first of all, the pos- experts think the live virus vaccine would give longer immunity. Even if the Salk vaccine works, better ones might be found. Re search will continue, whatever the answer April 12, to perfect this or other vaccines, to solve other prob lems about polio. The Salk vaccine represents one culmination of years of research and vital discoveries by many scientists which paved the way toward a practical vaccine. Q. —Will parents of children re ceiving shots in last year’s test learn if they got the Salk vaccine or the dummy shots? A.—Yes, records will be opened to answer that. Children who re ceived the real vaccine will not be given the vaccine again. But those who received the dummy shots will be offered the real vaccine. Q.—Will polio be eliminated this year? A.—No. Even If the vaccine is 100 per cent effective, there won’t be enough to go around. But 18 to 20 million vaccinations could save thousands of children this year. Q. Is a “black market” likely in polio vaccine? A. Unscrupulous persons might attempt this, even to offering a phony vaccine and saying you could give it to yourself. That danger ous advice would be a tip-off. Only a doctor or qualified nurse should give this or any other vaccine. All the licensed, commercial vaccine vials will bear a label at testing to approval by the Na tional Institutes of Health. Vaccind supplied through the Polio Founda tion will be marked “not for sale.” Pharmaceutical firms report they are planning to try to distribute commercial vaccine evenly or where most needed, only to reputable doc tors and druggists. Q. Why was vaccine prepared If no one knows whether it’s effective? A. Because vaccinations must start Immediately if the verdict is favorable. The Polio Foundation gambled $9 million to have vaccine available. The pharmaceutical firms also gambled, risking about a million or more each in laboratories and facilities -and personnel. If the vaccine is a failure, some of this loss would be offset by being able to use buildings and facilities for other purposes even for a dif ferent polio vaccine later on. / \ sibility of removing defects from a quality standpoint: second, bring ing production into the reach of a great many people, and third, safety.” Stress on Safety Partially, perhaps, as counterprop* aganda to the union line, manu facturers stress safety in talking to their workers about automation. “This new machine will make you do your job with less risk to your self," is the core of management's argument. It is a valid argument to some extent—though to Mr. Sullivan the watchword seems to be "Safety Third.” Men sometimes get so in credibly careless around heavy hy draulic presses that they sometimes forget to remove their hands. With automated equipment, men are in effect paid not to handle the work; in fact, large automatic presses are equipped with hand switches, two to an ope(ator, every one of which must be depressed with the full wqight of a man’s hand before the machine will work. The key to automation as now practiced in the auto Industry is not so much the way holes are drilled and surfaces planed; it is more how—and when—materials being worked on are passed from one station to another, and set in place for the next operation. James A. (“Big Jim”) Smith, a broaching machine operator at Ford’s Dearborn engine plant out side Detroit, used to manhandle 270-pound engine blocks In and out of his machine. Now, hooked into an automation line, the machine Itself does all the turning and Big Jim stands beside it watching the dials and flashing lights on a control panel. When a light is green, all is well; yellow, a tool is getting dull; red, time to stop the machine. The dials give him other informa tion vital to his job. Secret Is Control Big Jim's broach is only one small part of a continuously con trolled process that starts with rough-cast engine blocks and ends with completely assembled, tested and warranted engines. The secret, of course, is largely in the precise control of flow of parts and pre vention of overloading here and “dead” spots in the line there. But above all, the secret is in preventive maintenance: Curing the trouble be fore it starts. Control boards at strategic spots in the Dearborn engine plant show machinists at a glance how much life is left in every cutting tool on the line and how machines are functioning. Shutdowns are thus cut to a minimum, “down time” through mechanical or electrical failure approaches the vanishing point. An Indication of how important careful maintenance is can be gained from this fact: A single “robot” at the Rockford ordnance plant contains 57 miles of wire and 3.000 electrical connections. Some recently developed machinery— notably the cylinder head line now a-borning at the Barnes factory in Rockford—is even more complex. And, of course, the computer governed. feed-back-type machines now appearing in other industries are so intricate as to be an en tirely different type of device. Here to Stay There may be room for argument about whether automation will be good for the country. There is no room for argument as to whether it is here to stay,' or whether things will get more and more automated as time goes on. One of the designers for the Hau tau Engineering Co. of Detroit, goes so far as to say that a completely automatic operation for the assem bly of automobiles could be devised —but won’t. "It would be too ex pensive,” he adds. This seems to put a limit to it. There are certain points beyond which it will not pay to automate. But up to those points, industry is committed to advance. In the light of the Army’s experi ence at Rockford, there might bs some question about advantages vs. disadvantages to automation. In a larger sense, there might be some question of its social assets and liabilities. In summary, the production as pects are these: High initial cost of machinery and constant high maintenance charges are distinct disadvantages. But speed of production and higher quality of product are advantages. In its social context, automation will work to the short-term disad vantage of persons whom it dis places. chiefly in the lower skills of labor. But its social advantages will be felt in the development of new types of work and the disap pearance, generally, of the more ar duous forms of "strong back, weak mind” Job. Two Views Here are two views about the fu ture and desirability of automation. On the management side of the fence, F. T. Letchfleld. San Fran cisco engineer prominent in automa tion circles, says: "Inexorably, automation will elim inate tens of thousands of Jobs —• good Jobs now held by skilled men and womeo. What will be the effect? Well—despite the forebodings of the unthinking, the labor-union spokes men and a certain stripe of dema gogues, there will be more Jobs— better jobs—but they will require a higher level of training and skills.”' And another authority, on labor’s side, has this to say: "Notfcmf could he mere wicked er foolidi [then to restrict repleceeieet es men by machines]. Yes can’t stag tech nological progress end it would he silly to try rt it yea could. "Thors will be no dobets between ear selve| end management in that field. The only question is going to corns over the division of the resultant wealth. We will never question whether we want e big or little pie of national wealth te divide, or deviate from our conviction that the big pie it always the easiest te split." The occasion for the this state ment was an Inspection tour of a new Angine plant at Cleveland. Ohio, on June 30. 1953. The man who gave it voice was Walter P. Reuther. 1 * A-27