SIXTEEN PAGES-1 TO 8. fc-
VOL. XXXIX.-NO. 26.
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SUNDAY MORNING, NOVEMBER 6, 1892.
THE POLITICAL HOROSCOPE
Unique Features of the Pres
The Eesult of the Election Is
Hard to Foretell.
More Doubtful Elements Than Ever
Before Known. j
The Electoral Tote of Fifteen States ln
Question, bat the Chances Favor
the Democracy—A Review
of the Field.
By the Associated Pres*,]
New Yohk, Nov. s.—The presidential
election of 1892 is unique in being the
first since the war in which so many
donbtful states were 'admittedly at
issue between the great polfflcal par
ties. It is also unique in being the first
in which it is conceded by all parties
that the electoral vote of the nation
will be divided among three great polit
ical organizations. One of the three
candidates must receive a majority of
all the votes cast or the election will be
referred to the national bouse of repre
TUB ELEMENT OF DOUBT.
The advent of the People's party into
national politics has constituted the
great element of doubt in the present
contest. The solid south Democracy
and the solid west Repbulicanism are
both menaced by the encroachments of
the Populists, and in every estimate an
interrigation point must mark certain
states that one or the other of the old
parties were wont to claim in the past
as a political heritage.
In this list may be named Alabama,
Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, North and
South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming,
Montana and Idaho. To these are added
the old-time doubtful states of New
York, Indiana, New Jersey, Connecticut
and West Virginia.
While the three parties will probably
not unanimously agree that all these
states are to be placed in the doubtful
column, the fact remains that on Tues
day night, the American public will turn
anxiously to these Btates, each and all,
for a solution of the presidential contest.
THE PRESIDENTIAL COLLEGE.
The presidential college this year will
consist of 444 members, as follows:
Alabama 11 Nebraska 8
Arkansas SlNersda 3
I'.allfoinls ... ... 9 New Hampshire.. ■~ A
Colorado 4jNow Jersey 10
Connecticut 6 New York 36
Delaware 3 North Carolina 11
Flurida 4 North Dakota 3
Georgia 3 Ohio 23
Idaho 3 iregon 4
Illinois Pennsylvania 3'^
Indiana 15 Uhod- Islan I A
I-iwa 13 South Carolina 9
Kansas 10 -iouth Dakota 4
Kentucky IS Ttunessee 12
Louisiana 8 Texas 16
Maine G Vermont 4
Maryland 8 Virginia 12
Massachusetts 15 Washington 4
Michigan 14 West Vliginia 6
Minnesota 9 Wisconfin 12
Mi«Bis»ippi 9 Wyoming 3
Montana 3 Total 444
SURE DEMOCRATIC STATES.
The states admitted to be Democratic
are the following:
Arkansas 8 Mi sourl 17
Delaware 3 North Carolina.. ...11
Florida 4 <outh Carolina 9
Georgia 1 Teunes cc 12
Kent.icky la Texas 15
Louisiana 8 Virginia Vt
Miss ssi|,pi 13 Total 147
Michigan. .. ... 5
The states admitted to be Republican
California 4 Orogon 4
Illinois 24 Pennsylvania 3:2
lowa 13 Khnd.- Island 4
Maine 6 Verm >nt 4
.Vlassacbusets 15 Washington 4
Mich gan 9 Wisconsin 12
New Uamshire 4 Total 172
THE DOUBTFUL STATES.
The fifteen doubtful states enumerated
at the beginning will cast the following
Alabama 11 New York 36
Colorado 4 udiana 15
Kansaa lo New Jersey 10
Ne ada i) ouue ticu: ft,
North Dakota 3 Montana 3
t-ouih i akota 4 Ae*t Virginia 6
Wyominz 3 Total 125
Of the 15 doubtful states, Nevada,
with three electoral votes, is practically
conceded to tbe People's party, thus
leaving only 14 states actively in the
controversy. Of these, the Democrats
make the loudest claims: Alabama,
New Jersey and West Virginia, swelling
the total to 174. The Republicans ex
press the greatest confidence in carrying
Colorado, South Dakota, Idaho and" Ne
braska, which would swell their total
A DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE.
Admitting the claims of the two old
parties, and conceding Nevada to
Weaver, the very doubtful states remain
as New York, Indiana, Connecticut,
Kansas, North Dakota, Wyoming and
Montana. These states bave a total
of 76 votes, and of these 76 votes tbe
Democrats must gain 49 in order to win,
and tbe Republicans must secure 32.
While on these figures the Republicans
would appear to have the advantage,
this presumption is not borne out when
it is remembered that the carrying of
Kansas, North Dakota and Wyoming by
the People's party would insure to the
Democrats the advantage, by tending
to render a choice in the electoral col
lege impossible, and thus throwing the
election into the Democratic houße of
representatives, where Cleveland would
In addition to electing a president and
vice-president, the people of the United
States will next Tueadap elect 356 con
gressmen, this being the number which,
according to the re-apportionment, is to
compose the Fifty-third congress.
Tbe states which will elect legisla
tures to choose senators to take tbe place
of Republican senators retiring March 4,
1893, are California, Connecticut, Maine,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North
Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin and
Wyoming. Those which will elect legis
latures to elect senators to fill vacancies
caused by the retirement of Democratic
senators on the same day are : Delaware,
Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi,
Missouri. New Jersey, Tennessee, Vir
ginia and West Virginia. Thus upon
the result of the coming election also de
pends the political personnel of 26 sena
tors to be elected to take
seats at the same time the new
president is inaugurated, 16 of these
being elected to succeed Republican
senators, and 10 being elected to succeed
In the states of Kansas, South Dakota
and South Carolina the legislatures
chosen next Tuesday will also each elect
a senator to succeed one whose term ex
pires March 4. 1895, the retiring senatore
in Kansas and South Dakota being Re
publicans and in South Carolina Demo
A REVIEW OP THE STATES.
The Political Situation! Sized Up In
New York, Nov. s.—ln New York
presidential electors, members of con
gress, a chief justice of the court of ap
peals and members of the state assem
bly are to be elected. Besides the old
parties, in two districts the County
Democracy are running candidates in
opposition to Tammany. The Pro
hibitionists have candidates in all the
city districts, and the Socialist Lnbir
party has candidates in all except, the
seventh, and the People's party in all
except the seventh and ninth. T~here is
no contest for chief justice, as the Re
publican nominee was endorsed by the
NEW JERSEY ALL RIGHT.
It ia thought from a most careful es
timate that Cleveland will carry New
Jersey by from 5000 to 6000 majority.
LITTLE RHODY IS REBELLIOUS.
From Rhode Island comes the report
of uncertainty. Harrison carried the
state in 1888, but it is believed there has
been a change in the meantime. No
effort will be spared to bring out a full
vote, and both sides are confident, but
it can be said that the plurality will be
but a few hundred whichever way it
KEEP YOUR EYE ON MASSACHUSETTS.
In Massachusetts the result of the
presidential ticket is not considered
doubtful. The Rf publicans claim the
electors by about 20,000 votes. The
Democratic managers concede that thia
is probable, but think it possible, in
view of the uncertain attitude of a large
proportion of the electoral vote, that the
result on the presidential ticket may be
a surprise. Tbe registration, which is
large, is generally believed to favor the
Democrats. The Republican managers
have said Harrieon will have to lead
Cleveland 18,000 .votes to elect Haile,
Republican nominee for governor. It is
difficult to find a Democrat who believes
it possible for Haile to defeat Russell;
it is equally difficult to find a Repub
lican perfectly confident that he will
NO DOUBT ABOUT MAINE.
In Maine the Republican plurality at
tbe special election in September may
fairly be expected to reach the same
figures, or a little larger ones, in No
Besides presidential electors to be
chosen by the voters of Ohio, are a sec
retary of state, two judges of the supreme
court, 21 members of congress and
county officers. While the leading
Democrats at times claimed Ohio for
Cleveland, there is no settled feeling
that tbere will be any change in Ohio's
place as a Republican state in the pres
ALL EYES TURNED TO ILLINOIS.
The western state to which all eyea
have been turned since tbe opening of
the campaign ia Illinois. Two years
ago the school queßtion and the tariff
issue gave the state to the Democrats,
and this year the discussion of the first
of these issues ia accentuated by the
hope its prominence holds out to the
Democrats for success. Issues are sharp
ly drawn, and the vote on both the state
and national ticket will probably be
close. The Republican managers claim
20,000 majority for Governor Fifer, out
side of Cook county, and for Judge Alt
geld a majority of 20 000 is claimed by
the Democratic committee. The chances
are that Fifer will carry tbe Btate outside
of Cook county, and that Alt
geld will have a good ma
jority in Chicago, and whichever
of them is elected will have only a mod
erate majority. It is expected that
Governor Fifer will run somewhat be
hind the national ticket The Democrats
will receive large accessions from the
Lutheran vote and, indeed, from all
foreign-born nationalities tbat favor
parochial schools in foreigu tongues. To
offset thia gain, will be thousands of
life-long Democrats who are this year
arraigning the party for pursuing false
goda and who will vote the Republican
state ticket on the ground that it ia
American iv ita declarations, and that it
appeals to the prejudices of no nation
ality and no religioua denomination.
Hon. A. E. Stevenson, for the vice
presidency, baa added to the Democratic
confidence in Illinois. The congres
sional outlook in the state ia unfavorable
to the Democrats.
WISCONSIN WATCHED WITH INTEREST.
Wisconsin ia watched with more than
usual interest, as both parties claim the
electoral votes of the State. The bril
liant victory of Governor Peck two years
ago ia admitted to have been entirely
due to the preponderance of a Btate
issue, and the chief question thia year
is, now that the Bennett parochial
school law is no longer an issue, whether
the Lutheran voters can be held by the
Democratic party. The Democratic
leadera maintain that tbe principle of
common gratitude muat make the
Lutherans loyal to the Democratic
party thia year, but tbe Republicans
express great confidence in their ability
to reclaim the tremendous Lutheran
vote which they lost two years ago.
MICHIGAN WILL DIVIDE HONORS.
Michigan for the first time since the
war will cast a portion of its electoral
vote for the Democrats. Under the new
apportionment the atate ia entitled to
14 electors, and doubt as to political
supremacy in two or three congressional
districts necessarily involves the electo
ral vote of the districts under the Miner
law. Two electors-at-large will be
elected, and it is reasonably certain that
a Democratic elector will be returned
from the eastern districte-at-large, while
the western districts will return a Re
publican elector. The Democrats seem
reasonably certain also of carry
ing the first, second, seventh
and tenth congressional districts, and
thus, with one elector-at-large, are rest
ing secure in the confidence of having
five of the electoral votes of Michigan,
withafighting chance income other dis
tricts. The Republicans are practically
sure of the fourth, ninth, eleventh and
twelfth districts, and with one Republi
can elector at-large, feel equally confi
dent, with a fighting chance in the third,
fifth, sixth and eighth districts. While
the Democrats will certainly divide the
electoral vote of the state, the indica
tions on the state ticket eoera favorable
to the Republicans.
ROOM FOR DOUBT IN KANSAS.
Thp fusion of the Democrats and Peo
ple's party has brought about a doubt
ful condition in Kansas, for the first
time in the history of the state. The
Republicans do not admit this, but their
activity and reticence gives evidence of
nervous apprehension. The result of
the fusion, if Democrats and Populists
alike prove loyal to it, ought to result
in the choice of Weaver electors. All
the fusion candidates for congress and
the legislature are favorable to the elec
tion of a Populist or Democrat to suc
ceed Senator Perkins. The bolt of the
fusion state ticket by a faction of Demo
crats will probably defeat it. Notwith
standing the strong combination against
them, the Republicans claim to ha/c
no fear of the defeat of the Harrison
COMPLICATED AFFAIRS IN NEBRASKA.
The close of the campaign in Nebras
ka showß that affairs are very compli
cated. While tbere are three sets of
electoral tickets, the spectacle is pre
sented of the Democratic managers do
ing everything in their power to keep
their candidates from securing votes.
Governor Boyd has issued two letters to
the Democrats of the state, urging them
to secretely abandon the Democratic
electors and throw their support to
Weaver, and today the chairmen of the
Democratic county committees through
out the state began sending out sample
ballots with the Weaver electors
marked, accompanied by a letter urging
each voter to cast a vote for Weaver,
and thus take Nebraska out of
Republican hands. The urging
will prove effective in a large
number of cases, but many Democrats
declare they will stand by their own
ticket. The Republican vote depends
entirely upon the proportion of Demo
crats who refuse to obey tho dictates of
the party managers. The chairman of
the Democratic state committee pre
dicts that th« Populist tics et will be
elected by 6000 plurality. The Repub
lican managers, however, assert that
the Populists have become convinced of
the uselessuess of voting for Weaver, ex
cept to aid Cleveland, and that they
will vote for the Harrison electors in
sufficient numbers to offset the Demo
cratic vote for Weaver. They admit
that the vote will be close, but maintain
that the state will stay in the Republi
EVEN MINNESOTA IS DOUBTFUL.
That Minnesota should ever become a
doubtful state would not be believed a
year ago, and yet that is what the Dem
ocratic state committee is claiming to
night. They claim the election of D.
W. Lawler as governor, and assert firm
belief in the choice of four People's party
electors, whom they have endorsed. On
the other hand the Republicans claim a
majority for the gubernatorial candidate
of from 20,000 to 30,000, and expect to
elect all the electors, notwithstanding
fusion. The People's party managers
are claiming the election of Ignatius
Donnelly ac governor, but give no fig
ures, and they also assert belief in suc
cess for the fusion elector.
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THE FENCE.
Chairman Green, of the Souh Dakota
Republican committee, places the Re
publican plurality in the state at 15,000
and other party leaders agree with him
in the prediction. The Democrats and
independents, however, are confident of
success. Oue matter of uncertainty is
the inability to tell whether the Alli
ance vote will be as strong aB two years
ago. Although the Democracy and Al
liance combinations two years ago polled
less votes than tbe Republicans, they
hope this year by fusion, to carry the
state. The Democrats are straining
every nerve to carry the Weaver elect
ors, and are said to be sacrificing the
rest of the. ticket to that end. The
Democrats claim success, but the Re
publicans express the greatest confl
dence in carrying the state.
SILVER ABOVE ALL IN COLORADO.
All the iasuea in Colorado are subor
dinated to the silver question. Ninety
five per cent of the Democrats in the
state have endorsed the Weaver electors,
ao there are practically but two parties
in the field—Republican and People's
paity. The Weaver party claims the
state by from 10,000 to 15,000. The Re
publicans, on the other hand, say they
will save the stale to Harrison, hut re
fuse to give any figures. Should Weaver
carry the state by as much as 10,000,
the entire Populist state ticket will go
A MIXTURE IN MONTANA.
Conservative estimates give Montana
to Harrison by a small majority. The
Republicans will elect the governor.
The balance ot the state ticket will be
divided between the three parties.
UNCERTAINTY IN IDAHO.
In Idaho there iB great uncertainty re
garding the result. The Democrats and
Republicans both claim the Btate, while
the Populists are scarcely less confident.
POPULIST HOPES IN OREGON.
In Oregon the Democrats do not ex
pect to carry the state, but they are cer
tain to elect Pierce, a Populist elector,
whom they endorse. The People's party
vote in the Btate it ia believed will reach
ALL SERENE IN ARKANSAS.
Arkansas advices indicate a quiet elec
tion, with about an average vote. Op
posed to the Democratic national ticket
ia a combination ticket composed of
equal parts of Republican and People's
party candidatea for electors. Nothing
haa developed to doubt the success of
the Democratic candidate in the Sixth
SIXTEEN PAGES-1 TO 8.
PRICE FIVE CENTS.
tK- ioDal iß,rict Riven th « 6ta, e by
the new apportionment.
AN ANOMALY IN ALABAMA.
In Alabama the Alliance embarked on
an independent course, under the Jeffer
soman Democratic party, and allied
itself with the Republicans, with no
T a V nT d Th» JeCt K XCefU t0 defeßt Cleve
land. The combination ticket is known
as the Populist ticket. Tuesday's elec
tion will be strictly confined to the
choice of presidential electors and con
NO FLIES ON THE BOURBONS,
Kentucky reports no less than tbe
usual 30,000 majority for the Democratic
TENNESSEE IS WAY UP.
The Tennessee state Democratic com
mittee had a poll made of the state
which indicates a plurality of from 40 -
000 to 50,000 for the Democratic electors,
a plurality of 40,000 for the Democi atic
tioD. ern ° r * ma j° rit y over ;iU opposi-
SOUTH CAROLINA IS SOLID.
It is certain aB anything can be in
politics tbat the electoral vote of South
Carolina will be ca ß t for Cleveland and
Stevenson. There is little d übt that, a
solid Democratic, or rather a partly
fusionist, delegation will be sent to con
gress and a full Democratic state ticket •
elected. The seventh and only doubtful
district in the state is where George
(™lpred), Republican, opposes
W llham Llhot, the Democratic nominee.
GEORGIA WILL KEEP IN LINE.
The heavy majority received by the
Democratic state ticket last month, in
the Georgia election, insures the elec
tion of the Democratic electoral ticket,
though it is probable the majority wili
be somewhat smaller than that received
by the Democratic state ticket in Octo
LOUISIANA DECIDEDLY DEMOCRATIC.
The political outlook in Louisiana
may be said to be decidedly Democratic
so far aB the national ticket is concerned,
and the Democrats expect to elect a
solid delegation to congress, although
claims to the contrary are made, in ad
dition to the full state ticket and presi
AN EXCITING CAMPAIGN IN TEXAS.
From Galveston comes word that, to
night virtually closes the most exciting
campaign ever known in Texas.
George Clark, who leads one wing
of the Democratic party, endorsed
by the Republican party, will probably
be elected governor. The presidential
election iB all one way. Weaver and
Harrison will get some voter*, but Cleve
land will roll up the usual majority, as
there is no division of the Hogg and
Claik Democrats on president.
SAFE BETS IN MISSOURI.
Four parties in Mie3ouii vote for' rail
road commissioner, three judges of the
supreme court and two judges of the
court of appeals. The sporting element
are placing even money on 12,000 Demo
WEbT VIRGINIA IS SAFE.
The Democratic state committe of
West Virginia claim the state is safe for
Cleveland, while some conservative Re
publicans say they consider it unlikely
that Harrison will carry the state.
WYOMING IS VERY CLOSE.
In Wyoming the Democrats have con
ducted an aggressive campaign, assisted
by the People's party, with whom a
coalition has been effected by the Demo
crats supporting the Weaver electors
and the Populists throwing their
strength to the Democratic state ticket.
Non-partisans are of the opinion that
the contest will be very close.
CONNECTICUT ALL CUT UP.
In Connecticut there are five state
tickets in the field and one must have a
majority over all the othets to win.
Both the Republicans and Democrats
claim the state with equal assurance.
THE REPUBLICANS HAVE IOWA.
In lowa the fact that state issues are
subordinate to the great national ques
tions tends to give the Republicans a
significant advantage, and the Demo
crats are usually frank enough to admit
that the chances favor the Republican
party, although some Democrats still
There is apparently no significant
growth in either the People's party or
tbe Prohibition party in the state.
While on the national ticket the
chances favor the Republicans, indica
tions are that the contest will he quite
close on the state ticker. The Republi
cans are claiming eight out of eleven
congressional districts, but the Demo
crats concede only six.
THE OUTLOOK IN INDIANA.
It is impossible to forecast the result
of the presidential election in Indiana.
It is certain, however, that it -vill not
go ss an avalanche for either party. The
Democrats are claiming it by 12,
--000 to 15,000. The Republicans ex
pect to carry it by 8000 to 10 000, and
gain 5 to 7 congressmen. The result
will largely depend on the Populist vote,
which is .an unknown quantity. The
Populists claim 40 000 Conservative
estimates put it, at 25,000 Furthermore,
the Prohibitionists claim large arcessions
since they cast 12 000 votes two years
It seems almost inevitable that the
Democrats will lose some districts
gained in the political avalanche two
years ago, though they will probably
retain a majority of the delegation from
Holy Johu Among the Hooslers.
Valparaiso, Ind ,Nov 5 —Postmaster
General Wanamaker addressed a large
gathering of enthusiastic Republicans
at Columbia City this morning. To
night in this city thousands were un
able to gain admittance to the court
house, where for upwards of an hour he
defended the Republican principles.
McVeash Speaks in Chit-ago.
Chicago, Nov. s.—Wayne MeVeagh
spoke tonight to an audience that filled
Cent al Music hall. The meeting waa
preceded by a torch-light procession.
MeVeagh confined himself almost en
tirely to a discussion of the tariff ques
Your fall suit should be made by Gerz.
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112 West Third street.
Steel building on Broadway, near Sec
ond, suitable for any kind of business.
Address 0. M. Randolph, box 800, city.
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