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Newspaper Page Text
Bumper Crop Means Supports Will Be Major Price Factor By GILBERT GUSLER, Market Analyst PRICES FOR THE 1958 wheat crop probably will make much the same pattern as in each of the last nine crop years: A drop below supports dur ing harvest, then a rise to or near support levels later in the season. They're likely to average about 10 per cent lower than for the 1957 and 1956 crops. The support program will be the dom inant factor governing wheat prices. Supplies will be larger than ever be fore. Efforts to reduce surplus stocks by acreage controls, the soil bank and costly subsidized exports are being thrown for a big loss this year by good weather and constantly improving farm er know-how. After two years of de cline a new high peak in carryover stocks is likely next year. This year's carryover estimate, to be released in late July, is ex pected to be about 880 million bush els. That will be a cut of around 155 million bushels in the last two years, accomplished by large ex ports in the 1956-57 season and a re duction in the 1957 crop. Domestic disappearance offsets growth of population and support prices curb use of wheat for feed. Nearly all of this year's carryover Is CCC-owned or resealed under loan. Free" stocks were 72 million bushels a year ago, but are much smaller this year. Because of the drop in supports, "free" stocks in trade channels were allowed to drop to the barest minimum. • * Ü ii Can save • price of the • whole pick-up jn a single field FOR THOSE WHO KNOW AND WANT THE BEST fSorthwesf • * Special j PlCh-UP The Northwest Special continues to be the most outstanding pick-up in the market. Under ideal con ditions, "any old log with bark on it" will work, but when the going gets rough, you need this. mmS 9 t If it works as well as ÿou say it does , VU he hack for 4 more tomorrow morning. Last summer an operator started out to harvest 4,000 acres with 5 combines using ordinary pick-ups. He had so much trouble that when someone suggested he try the North west Special, he dropped everything to get one. • This is it, So I hear , << ßtiftes ßnna ?» GETS IN ALL THE GRAIN EVERY TIME Many users report they saved the price of the whole machine in one season, even in one field. Only the Northwest Special has the moving belts that gently convey the grain to the platform without shaking it up, thus completely eliminating threshing out. Flexible — •'"£» 7. gets all grain Ï • even on * 5 ^ roughest JZ ground \ northwest! L Special • pick-up t t jj his dealer told him. said the operator. There's some doubt any machine could be that good , but if it works as well as you say it does — Only the Northwest Special is so flexible that it squirms" along right down on the ground, covering the field every two inches no matter how rough the going. ii u ßtute* u Jmne* I » SUPER-SENSITIVE FINGERS KNOW JUST WHAT TO DO The above photo tells the ending of the story — he bought the other four and you see all five working in the same field. wmmm** asms* Cannot pick up stones t northwest ? 1 Special J When Innés fingers feel a rock, they work over it or around it; they cannot pick it up. They automat ically strip themselves of entanglements, so there's no work stoppage or time loss on account of wrapping or clogging. PICK-UP Now available in super width and regular. MODEL 40 REGULAR t T J ßnnes QUALITY IS BUILT IN TO EVERY FEATURE L I 1 MMM No detail has been overlooked to bring you a pick up that's easy to use, stands up to the toughest con ditions, gets in the whole crop in A-l shape, and will last for many years. For more complete information, see your dealer, write Fargo Farm Equipment Sales Company, Inc., 23rd and Main Ave., Fargo, N. Dak., or drop a card to the manufacturers n lilhn-j liJUMIUHIIIIf« ' f Completely ** Î eliminates « wrapping MODEL 52 SUPER FULL 24" WIDER f Horthwest : a Special I .... » PICK-UP T Î Simple V-belt drive packages are available for all large S. P. and many pull type combines. Shute* ßnnet COMPANY • BETTENDORF. IOWA l ' 4 ? 1 Northwest Special Pick-Up See the new SUPER-SIZE New crop prospects in early June were appraised at 1,271 million bushels. W'inter wheat, at 1,069 million bushels, promised a new high record, exceeding slightly the previous high in 1952, har vested from nearly 9 million more acres. Increase in the total crop over last year is partly due to larger planted acreage resulting from smaller partici pation in the soil bank and more over planting of allotments. Growers planted or intended to plant 56.9 million acres compared with 49.9 million acres last year. The national allotment was 55 million acres in both years. Allowing for the 5.3 million allotment acres put in the soil bank this year, it is evident that several million non compliance acres were planted. How much was plowed under in order to come into compliance will not be known until later. Usage in the 1958-59 season is ex pected to total slightly under one bil lion bushels—a little less than 600 mil lion for domestic use and, with much less certainty, about 400 million bushels for export. Final estimates won't be available until late July, but U. S. De partment of Agriculture forecasts have put domestic disappearance in the past season at 584 million bushels—480 mil lion for food, 64 million for seed and 40 million for feed. Canada's more aggressive selling po licy probably will be continued. Grow ers in Argentina and Australia are re ported to be planning to increase acre age, but their crops are still a long way from harvest. European crop prospects are gener ally satisfactory and France and Italy have export surpluses. Turkey « may and some other minor countries also may be on the exporter list this year. Present prospects of a United States carryover of 880 million bushels, a crop of 1,271 million bushels and imports of 8 million bushels, mostly for feed, would total supply of 2,159 million If domestic usage and ex mean a bushels. ports should take about one billion bush els for that supply, around 1,160 million bushels would be left on July 1, 1959, a nt^ all-time high. (See chart). If prices are a few cents below the effective loan rate at time of harvest, it will pay to store. Ad U. S. WHEAT CüütrOVIR ON JüU 1 mu. bu. 1,000 900 I-* - 0 / / 800 / / 700 / <00 800 400 / 900 200 4 ü ♦49 * 61 *88 * 55 * 87 * 89 •For tot« t« for 1958 oui 1959, Dota fron U. S. Deft. of Agr. In spite of acreage controls, the soil bank and heavily subsidized exports, wheat carryover probably will reach a new peak next year. vantage will be greatest, of course, for growers who own good storage space. Growers ineligible for price support won't profit much if they must pay regular storage charges on commercial space. Wheat must be in storable condition, of course. That means under 14 per cent of moisture and reasonably free from weed seeds, stems and trash that might cause spoilage. To comply with pure food laws gov erning interstate shipment of grain, contamination of stored wheat must be prevented. Bins should be swept out thoroughly beforehand and sprayed heavily with DDT or methoxychlor. Remove old grain in nearby bins that might harbor insects. Make bins tight against birds, rodents and weather damage. Check bins & few weeks after - harvest and occasionally through the season. Fumigate if you find evidence of insects. Make early arrangements if you must use commercial space. Be sure as to who is responsible for maintaining quality. If you are eligible and have approved storage space, you can apply for a government loan as soon as the wheat is stored. If you don't need the money you can wait on the possibility that prices will rise close enough to the support level by early winter to make selling attractive. If they don't, price protection through a loan or purchase agreement should be sought before January 31. If you are not eligible, you will have a harder time gauging when to sell. Don't expect too much. Do some selling if and when prices come fairly close to support levels. They are not likely to rise above support at any time.