The nonpartisan leader. [volume], August 16, 1917, Image 5

About The nonpartisan leader. [volume] (Fargo, N.D.) 1915-1921

Image provided by: State Historical Society of North Dakota

                
BY RALPH HARMON
OSY predictions in July of
enormous crop yields for 1917,
which resulted in phenomenal
price depressions for such
things as wheat and potatoes,
have gone glimmering, to the tune of
millions during the last 30 days. The
government's monthly crop report, is
sued at Washington August 9, shows
big drops in all staple crops, except
corn and potatoes, in which equally
Striking gains are made.
The hot weather of July hit dry sec
tions hard, and there are many fields
of grain that will not be touched this
year. Rye, barley and wheat in North
Dakota and Montana and in some parts
of Minnesota were so short that the
grain would not pay wages and binder
twine cost and these dismal sights will
be left standing after the
last threshing machine has
been put away for the win
ter. In some places farmers
•with livestock to feed have
already begun to make use_
of this short grain for
pasturage, but on the other
band there are many farm
ers who have not the live
stock to use it.
CAN NOT USE
WITHERED FIELDS
Quick transportation, and
mobility of organization
might be able to put hungry
herds on these unharvested
fields, but there is no organi
zation to tell the cattle men
•where such fields can be had,
nor to tell the grain growers
where such cattle can be
had. Many farmers, per
ceiving several weeks ago
that their grain crops were
'going to be a failure, began
to plow them under while
there was still' milk in the
.stems. Such fields will give
fertilizer for next year's
crops, but fields' which were
not "plowed under then' have
since gone past the' profit
able stage, and to turn them
under now, .would be putting
a lot of seed, in the ground
to bring up volunteer crops
next season, without con
tributing much in fertility.
The extent to which crop
prospects have faded away
during July is shown by a
comparison of the govern
ment's July crop report, with
the August report.
THIRTY DAYS HIT
GRAIN CROPS HARD
Hi
8®!!
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In July the total United
States production of wheat
was estimated at approxi
mately 678,000,000 bushels,
but ih August it had dropped
to 653,000,000, a decline of
25,000,000 bushels, or nearly
1,000,000 bushels a day. That
there was such a decline is
Bhown by the kind of weather that in
tervened. The St. Paul Daily News,
making a crop estimate August 1, esti
mated that the North Dakota wheat
crop alone had shrunk 10,000,000 bu
shels between July 15 and August 1.
Oats showed a decline below the July
estimate of 34,000,000, the August gov
ernment estimate placing the total
United States yield this year at 1,416,
000 bushels.
Flax dropped 4,200,000 in the month,
to an estimated yield this year of only
12,800,000 bushels of seed.
Barley dropped 11,000 000 bushels
during the month, to an August esti
mate of 203,000,000 bushels.
Rye, which is a small crop compared
with the other grains, fell off 100,000
bushels during July, the August esti
mate putting the total yield for the
United States at even 56,000,000 this
year.
HAY IS SHORT
9,000,000 TONS
These are grain yields that will go
Into human food consumption as well
as into stock feed. But when it comes
to hay, the great sustainer of the meat
supply throughout the winter, there
has been a decline in July of 3,000,000
tons, bringing down the total estimated
crop this season 9,000,000 below the
production of last year. A falling off
of 9,000,000 tons in the hay yield is go
ing to mean a tremendous slaughtering
5? 'J?-.
s.
of cattle, and a deep cutting into the
food resources of the country.
Another phase of the crop situation
that newspapers never mention, is that
much of the present grain prospects
will be curtailed before the grain Is out
of the field. Large quantities of the
corn now included in the prospective
grain yield, will actually have to be
turned into cattle fodder, and while
to that extent, it will offset the big hay
shortage, it will lower the estimates of
grain reserves. Some other grains are
in the same situation.
MORE
THAN
POTATOES
EVER BEFORE
To offset this general shrinkage of
expectations there remain the corn and
potato crops. The government raised
its corn estimate 71,000,000 bushels
Government's August Estimate Shows Slump—Banner Crop for Next
Year Urged Without Any Price Guarantee Yet
during July, and its potato estimate
15,000,000 bushels. Both predictions,
if. they are fulfilled, will give bigger
respective crops than this country has
ever known.
The August forecast for the potato
crop is 467,000,000 bushels. Even the
July forecast of 452,000,000 was far
larger than anything else this country
ever produced. There is much ground
outside the government crop estimate
to believe that there will be a big pota
to yield. Trade reports from many
sections, (which, however, should al
ways be discounted at this time of
year) indicate heavy yields. Pennsyl
vania will produce 25,000,000 bushels of
potatoes, say the observers,-with a sub
stantial increase in acreage in every
"county of the state. The second crop
in Tennessee is now being planted un
der favorable conditions, with new po
tatoes from the fields "bringing $1 and
$1.25 per bushel. The eastern shore
crop of Virginia already on the ""^-ket,
has gone above 1,500,000 barrels—not
bushels—and is expected by the potato
dealers to come close to 4,000,000 be
fore the crop is out of the ground.
SLIGHT GAINS OVER
LAST YEAR'S YIELD
DINNER TIME FOR SOME FOLKS,
BUT JUST 12 O'CLOCK FOR HIM
tfUST&rHr
foK
AS U*UAM
So far as the potato crop can be seen
into, there will be a lot of it, but there
are indications creeping in everywhere
that the potatoes are small, and if this
should prove to be true, the yield will
eventually fall far below the present
predictions. Nowhere are potatoes of
large size being reported.
The corn crop Is the most encourag
ing of all the food crops to look at.
Good corn is being sold for cash at
fancy figures on the big exchanges,
and with the great shortage in other
grain crops, corn can be expected to
be. a big. food resource for the nation,
as well as a profitable venture for the
farmer—if food control legislation in
tervenes to distribute the legitimate
fruits of a big yield among the pro
ducers and consumers.
But even with the big slashing' in
estimates during July—the total decline
for the crops mentioned being 75,000,
000 bushels—most of the crops still
look as though they would be better
than they did last year. For instance.
Of Coyase.
Au. T«r 0TWR H&Lp BUfT
thought You vwtfc
fir
hiho K«WV
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PAGE FIVE
and the Next
a
—By Herbert Johnson in the Country Gentleman.
the wheat yield is still estimated 14,
000,000 above that of last year. That
is not much in the total wheat yiSld of
the nation. It is roughly speaking,
around 3 to 4 per cent of the small
years, and the 1917 estimate, good as it
is, places the crop below anything
known in this country since 1911, for
only twice within the last 10 years has
there been so small a wheat crop. In
1911 it was 621,000,000, and in 1910 it.
was 635,000,000.
CORN CROP IS
A HOPEFUL FACTOR
The gain in corn over last year is
608,000,000 bushels, if the government's
present estimates pan out at husking
time. Oats indicates a gain of 165,000,
000 over last year, and barley 22,000,
000. Rye shows the biggest propor
tionate gain over last year, approxi
mately 9,000,000 bushels, and potatoes
show 181,500,000 over 1916.
The two crops which show a falling
off from last year's yield are flax and
hay. These are not "food crops" in
the first instance, but in a secondary
sense they are, for the flax seed is one
of the most useful of feeds in dairying
and egg production, the seeds being
high in protein "after the linseed oil is
pressed out. They are sold to dairy
men and poultrymen at high prices.
Such is the August outlook on food
crop production according to the best
obtainable figures.
Summing it all up there is going
to be a much larger supply of corn
and potatoes than last year.
There will be somewhat larger sup
plies of wheat, oats, rye and barley.
There will be less hay and feed fop
livestock. What is the country go
ing to do about it? What is going
to be done to encourage the pro
ducers of this year's crop to go to
it and produce' a better one next
year? They have paid large in
creases for the machinery they had
to buy this year over what they
paid last year. They are paying
higher wages. They will probably
be assessed still more next year by
the machinery makers, and surely
wages can not go down (and they
ought not) with everything the
people have to buy so high.
Well, the department of agriculture
has set its shoulder to the
wheel. Its big booster cam
paign for a billion bushel
wheat crop is launched. An
nouncement of this cam
paign was made the same
day as the August crop re
port was made, and ela
borate plans and estimates
for the big 1918 crop are set
forth. The inducement to
the farmers to help is held
in this statement from the
department of agriculture.
HURRAH FOR THE
BILLION BUSHEL CROP
"The accomplishment of
this great increase of wheat
and rye acreage without
disrupting correct farming
practice will call for tre
mendous effort on the part
of farmers. However, the
United States department of
agriculture, the state col
leges of agriculture, and
other state and local agen
cies are planning to aid in
every way possible."
The announcement also
includes an outline of the
kind of help the department
and the agricultural colleges
are going to give. Here they
are, quoted from the depart
ment's own announcement:
"Plow early. Give plowed
.land two months to settle
before sowing where possi
ble. Compact the late-plow
ed land with roller and har
row. Don't plow after a cul
tivated crop. Prepare such
land with disk and harrow.
Make the seed bed a fit place
for the seed. Sow with a
drill, sound, plump, clean
seed of adapted variety."
There is more similar
"help."
But such "help" is not
much inducement to take on
the "tremendous effort on
the part of farmers" that the
department admits it will
entail. What are the farm
ers going to be paid for this
bumper crop? The hurrah
story released on August 9 asking for
the billion bushel crop, has only the fol
lowing hints as to what the producers
are to get out of the effort:
PLENTY OF TRANSPORTATION
SEED AND MACHINERY
"The estimates are made with the
knowledge that there is SOME
SHORTAGE OF THE FERTILIZER
SUPPLY, but with understanding that
THERE WILL BE NO GENERAL
SHORTAGE IN THE SUPPLY OF
SEED, OR OF FARM MACHINERY
which is necessary in the production of
the wheat crop.
"IT IS UNDERSTOOD ALSO THAT
AMPLE TRANSPORTATION FACILI
TIES WILL BE PROVIDED AND A
FAIR PRICE OF WHEAT WILL BE
ESTABLISHED. THESE FACTORS
HAVE BEEN ASSUMED AS FIXED
AND SATISFACTORY."
For this shortage of the fertilizer
supply, which the department knows
exists, will the farmers be taxed the
enormous increase of prices exacted by
the fertilizer producers? Some kinds
of fertilizer have advanced from $34
to $95 per ton, others from $47 to $128,
and all others have advanced, although
not so heavily.
"It is understood" that there will be
transportation facilities and plenty of
machinery. The farmers pay all the
transportation charges on the crops—
(Continued on page 16)
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