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A YEAK OF BLUNDERING. Some Prophecies of the AilmliiiHtratlou ami Its General as to the Philippine War Contrasted with the Facts. [ From Files of the Tribune and Evening Post for 1809 and 1000. ] Washington , March 17 , 1899. The officials believe that the climax [ to the rebellion in the Philippines ] may occur at any hour. The indications are that hostilities may end within a very short time. Washington , March 24. It is believed that after General Otis has delivered his next blow the insurgent army , as an organization , will have ceased to exist. Manila , April 8. Present indications denote insurgent government in perilous condition ; its army defeated , dis couraged and scattered. Insurgents re turning to their homes. OTIS. Washington , April 4. The War De partment officials are fully convinced that the backbone of the insurrection is broken , and that the main body of troops will surrender. Washington , April 19. General Ofcis has already indicated that his present army is sufficient for the purposes he has in view. / Washington , April 20. General Otis [ has replied to General Alger that tl estimate of 30,000 men to constitute his army agrees "with his own calcula tions. " He adds that he expects very soon to report a decided improvement in the situation. Manila , April 29. Believe insurgents tired of war. OTIS. Manila , May 8. Signs of insurgent I weakness more apparent daily. j OTIS. Manila , May 11. Signs of insurgent disintegration daily manifested. OTIS. 1 Washington , May 18. The belief was | ' expressed [ officially ] that the end of the insurrection was at hand , and the result was regarded as indicating the wisdom of refusing any terms to the first com mission , and impressing the insurgents with the power of the United States forces. Washington , June 1. General Otis telegraphed today that he is still of the opinion that 80,000 troops will be neces sary for the effective control of the Philippines. Washington , August 12. The presi dent * * * [ because of in formation from a diplomatic source believes that Aguiualdo is making his last play , and that the war will be over by November 1. He firmly credits this [ During July and August. It was j decided in these months to raise and despatch a volunteer army in order that General Otis might have an army of 63,500 men , not 80,000 , by January 1. ] Washington , October 6. Admiral Dewey * * * expressed the greatest satisfaction at the information : ontaiued in the latest Manila advices to ; he effect that the insurgents were in straits. Washington , November 9. The War Department definitely located Aguiualdo today. Manila , November 18. Indications are that insurgent troops are widely scattered. OTIS. Manila , November 24. Claim to government by insurgents can be made no longer under any fiction. Their generals and troops in small bauds scattered through the provinces acting as banditti or dispersed. OTIS. Manila , November 27. Indications are that insurgent force south of Manila disintegrating and troops going to their homes. Reports from southern islands favorable. OTIS. Washington , November 80. Alto gether the news from both army and naval sources today is highly encourag ing to the officials here , as indicating the practical end of the insurrection in northern Luzon. Washington , December 12. Organized rebellion no longer exists , and our troops are actively pursuing robber bands. Manila , January 25 , 1900. It is be lieved that the insurgents are widely dispersed. The country is now covered by troops and our forces occupy Santa Oruz. OTIS. The Facts , February , 1900. Fighting still progressing in all parts of Luzon ; no universal surrender ; Aguiualdo not yet located ; no decrease in the weekly mortality lists ; losses in the American army since August 6 , 1898 deaths , 1,485 , wounded , 1,951 ; still nothing to prove that the Filipinos are tired of war , as reported by General Otis , April 29 ; the hatred of the Filipinos pines for their conquerors increased by a year of bloodshed and the devastation of their country. "Mr. Bryan has shown that he can drop a topic that is played out , " says the Hartford Times ( dem. ) , having reference to the tariff issue. "Why not drop his financial bugaboo talk now and concentrate his energies on the great question of imperialism , on which he speaks so well , and on which the people hear him gladly yes , enthu siastically ? The people don't want any more of the silverite Not-so , and they do want to hear about the live topic of the day , behind which is an issue on which Mr. Bryan might easily ride into I the White House. " PAUL MORTON OF THE SANTA FE TALKS TRAFFIC. Peoplo.ln the llast Are Awakening ; to the Pleasures and Benefits of Travel In California. Second Vice-President Paul Morton of ; ho Santa Fe is at the Palace , whera he arrived yesterday from Chicago. He is accompanied by Passenger Traffic Man ager T. Nicholson of the same road and Edward Chambers , general freight agent for the Pacific Coast , who joined the party at Los Angeles. Mr. Morton is here making an inspec tion of the road in general and of the San Joaquin Valley branch in particular. He expresses himself as much gratified at the progress in construction that has been made on that line , and agrees with Engineer Storey that it is now but a matter of days before his road will be delivering freight and passengers in San Francisco. In conversation yesterday Mr. Morton said that he has every reason to con gratulate his company on the business it has done during the last year. Every thing has increased , particularly in fhe passenger traffic. People in the East realize more thoroughly every day the superior claims possessed by California as a winter resort and as a state that has many attractions to offer to the health- seeker and the sightseeing tourist. This realization has manifested itself during the past year in an increase of travel that has run almost a quarter above the volume done in previous years , and , from the looks of things , it is almost certain that the people carried over the different western roads this year will outnumber those of the year just past as greatly as these have outnumbered their predecessors. Mr. Morton and his party will leave here during the early part of the week for Los Angeles , where they will meet J. 0. Stubbs and William Sproule of the Southern Pacific Company , and confer with the orange growers relative to the trouble now existing over the shipment of that fruit. It is not improbable that the building at G41 Market street , now occupied by Sloane & Co. , who are soon to vacate it , may be either bought or leased by the Santa Fe people , to be utilized as their central offices in this city. San Francisco Call , February 10 , 1900. Protesting against the imposition of any tariff on Puerto Rico products , the San Francisco Chronicle ( rep. ) warns "our statesmen that the people of the United States desire absolute justice to bo meted out to all whom our flag pro tects , and the statesman or the party that proposes to do otherwise will bo ground to powder. "